The Real Estate Deal
Editor Cindy Zetts dishes on real-estate and development around Puget Sound: She lived in apartments, townhomes and houses -- a dozen of them in four states -- before settling in the Seattle area in 1997. After taking a bath on the sale of her first home, in South Florida, she vowed to wise up about real estate. She bought a house in Covington 10 years ago because, well, she could afford one there.
November 10, 2008 11:36 AM
Commercial real-estate market feels the crunch
Posted by Cindy Zetts
From reporter Elizabeth Rhodes, at the National Association of Realtors conference in Orlando:
ORLANDO, Fla. -- Real estate agents attending the National Association of Realtors convention in Orlando have been grumbling a lot about how tough it is for their customers to get loans.
It's not that loans aren't available. It's that lenders, badly burned by mortgage fraud, have tightened their underwriting standards, so a loan application that used to sail through now is being checked and double checked.
But hard as it is for homebuyers to get money, buyers of commercial properties have it worse, said Lawrence Yun, the Realtors group's chief economist. Even sound transactions to solid buyers in healthy markets have been curtailed, he said, although credit is starting to loosen somewhat.
"But we have a long way to go to get back to normal," Yun told Realtors.
Job loss is making the situation worse.
Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae said 1.3 million jobs have been lost this year, with half a million of those coming in the past two months.
"With the exception of the multifamily sector, the loss of jobs is reducing demand in commercial real estate to the point where many markets can expect rents to weaken," Yun said.
His national forecast:
-- Job loss is reducing the need for office space. Thus office vacancy rates are projected to rise from 12.9 percent in the second quarter of this year to 14.4 percent in second quarter 2009.
-- Consumer spending will continue to be weak, leading to a higher retail vacancy rate. In the second quarter of this year, the retail vacancy rate was 9.7 percent. In next year's second quarter, it is likely to hit 10.4 percent. As a result, rents, which were up a modest 1.2 percent this year are expected to contract 0.9 percent in 2009.
-- Vacancies in industrial space are forecast to hit 10.8 percent in the second quarter of next year, compared with 9.9 percent for the same period this year. Rents will be up 1 percent next year.
The key to recovery, Yun and Duncan agreed, is housing. Both are looking to the new administration to structure an effective stimulus plan. If that happens, look for things to improve.
Dec 1, 08 - 02:41 PM
Real-estate outlook: Is the glass half-full, half-empty or broken?
Dec 1, 08 - 01:39 PM
Lower mortgage rates means "it's a great time to buy," loan officer says
Nov 26, 08 - 07:00 PM
Real-estate facts and figures: What a week
Nov 20, 08 - 02:18 PM
Happy holidays: Fannie, Freddie postpone foreclosures until next year
Nov 20, 08 - 02:00 PM
Comptroller: Community Reinvestment Act didn't cause credit crunch

nwjobs

Post a comment

Michelle Goodman blogs about work/life balance.
How to tell your office you're gravely ill
Post a comment
nwautos

Choosing a new sedan? Weigh the impact of your choice on your wallet and on the planet.
Post a comment

- 'The Road' takes Viggo Mortensen to Mount St. Helens and Astoria, Ore.
- Tugboat sinks at Seattle waterfront pier
- Child-support error costs nearly $21,000
- Craigslist adoption ad: A plea by young mother-to-be? A scam?
- Chase shrugs off loss of CD investors
- Vikings easily beat the Seahawks
- Denny Triangle gains skyline, but tenants slow to come
- Snow piles up on Cascade slopes
- Woman stabbed by stranger in North Seattle
- Husky Men's Basketball Blog | Saturday's Pac-10 games in review
- Senate vote clears hurdle
239 - Vikings easily beat the Seahawks
136 - Child-support error costs nearly $21,000
129 - Palin excitement builds in Tri-Cities
124 - Tight Senate vote launches health care over hurdle
122 - Cutting through breast-cancer confusion
90 - Historic health care bill clears Senate hurdle
89 - Game thread
70 - New York terror trials will restore faith in rule of law
65 - Chase shrugs off loss of CD investors
54
- 'The Road' takes Viggo Mortensen to Mount St. Helens and Astoria, Ore.
- Child-support error costs nearly $21,000
- It's possible to recover a life lost to hoarding
- Washington state wines make annual best-of list
- Banff: powder, peaks & purity
- Chase shrugs off loss of CD investors
- Protect yourself from baggage loss
- Rediscovering Moab, 'the most beautiful place on Earth'
- Denny Triangle gains skyline, but tenants slow to come
- Northwest Living | On Whidbey, a unified home from multiple recycled parts

February
| Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
| 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |






