Another link to the old Seattle Rainiers of the Pacific Coast League is gone. Jack Lohrke, who came by his nickname "Lucky" honestly, died Wednesday at age 85, two days after suffering a stroke.

As I do whenever I need information on old Seattle ballplayers, I called local baseball historian -- and local treasure -- Dave Eskenazi (who will be throwing out the first pitch at Saturday's Mariners' game, by the way, as the Mariners turn back the clock to 1939 to honor the Rainiers.)

Without looking it up, Eskenazi knew that Lohrke played for the 1956 and '57 Rainiers -- the latter managed by former major league star Lefty O'Doul. He was at the tail end of his career and played in just 49 and 47 games, hitting .272 and .143 (numbers I found on the great minor league website put together by SABR -- the Society for American Baseball Research -- and operated through Baseball Reference.

Lohrke, an infielder with the New York Giants and Philadelphia Phillies from 1946-53, is best known for his narrow escape from the terrible Snoqualmie Pass bus crash in 1946 that killed nine of the 15 member of the Spokane Indians that were on board. Lohrke was on the bus, which was en route to Bremerton, until the players stopped for lunch in Ellensburg. Lohrke got word from members of the Washington State patrol that he had been called up by the San Diego Padres of the PCL. Indians' management had asked the patrol to track down the bus to deliver the news. Lohrke decided to hitch a ride back to Spokane, and thus wasn't on it when it careened off the mountain pass after the driver swerved to avoid an oncoming car. The bus plunged over the enbankment and down 500 feet. Remarkably, six players surivived, as did the bus driver.

As a 1990 story in the Los Angeles Times pointed out, surviving that incident wasn't the only reason that Lohrke was called "Lucky." From Bob Wolf's article:

Thom Loverro of the Washington Times has a column today in which he relays comments that former Washington Nationals GM Jim Bowden made on a radio station in Los Angeles. Bowden -- who resigned under fire on March 1 -- says that the Nats have already made the decision to draft Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State phenom.

If true -- and I don't doubt it for a second -- that would be bad news for the Mariners, who are drafting second and would no doubt pounce on Strasburg if he dropped to them. But the Mariners have been prepared for the likelihood that Strasburg won't be there for them.

Here's what Bowden said, according to the Times:

"Washington is going to draft Strasburg. The decision has already been made. It was made when I was there. That is who they are going to take. ... This is the best amateur pitcher since I was born. He is that good - his delivery, his stuff, 100 miles an hour in the eighth inning, his makeup. He's got the entire package. ... Strasburg is going to be drafted by Washington. You think they are going to sign him early? No, it's going to be Aug. 15 at 11:57 p.m. It will end at around $15 million, about under $35 million of what Scott [Boras] wants, but that is where it ends up. It will be record-breaking, and he will be pitching in the big leagues in September. He is that good."

Interesting stuff. Of course, Bowden is full of bluster, and the Nats, I suppose, could still back out if Boras's demands are unbearable. But as I've written many times, the Nationals have their franchise credibility on the line with this draft pick. They aren't going to let Strasburg get away, Boras or no Boras.

Freddy Garcia, who had some great moments in a Mariners' uniform after coming over from Houston in the Randy Johnson trade, has probably reached the end of his career. Garcia was released today by the Mets. Garcia, 32, had been pitching in Class AAA Buffalo, and not well. In his latest start on Tuesday, he could crank his fastball up to just 85 mph. His ERA is 8.18 in two starts. Freddy simply never recovered from shoulder surgery in 2007. He's thinking seriously of hanging it up.

That got me to thinking about the evolution of the trades that brought Garcia to Seattle, and eventually sent him on his way to Chicago, where he won a World Series ring with the White Sox in 2005 (pitching seven shutout innings in the title clincher over Houston). I have a vague feeling someone else may have done an abbreviated version of this once, but I can't remember to whom to give credit. It's a fascinating study of the far-reaching effects of one deal. In this case, it all began 20 years ago, when the Mariners came to the conclusion they had no chance to re-sign Mark Langston, who was going to be a free agent after the 1989 season. The ramifications of the Langston trade are still being felt today, extending into the off-season blockbuster that brought Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, et al to Seattle. Let's trace it back to the beginning, and look at all the tentacles:

(Just as I was about to post this, I googled John Halama to find out who he was playing for, and saw this post from Bleacher Report. Great minds...)

May 25, 1989: Mark Langston and Mike Campbell traded by Mariners to Montreal Expos for Randy Johnson, Gene Harris and Brian Holman.

Dec. 1, 1989: Mark Langston signs as a free agent with California Angels.

April 15, 1990: Mike Campbell traded by Montreal Expos to Chicago White Sox for Rob Fletcher (Fletcher never advanced beyond Class A and was out of pro ball by 1991; Campbell had stints with the Brewers, Rangers, Padres, Cubs and Red Sox, finishing 12-19 in parts of six seasons before being traded to the Yokohama Bay Stars in Japan's Central League on Oct. 29, 1996).

May 11, 1992: Gene Harris trade by Mariners to San Diego Padres for Will Taylor (Taylor hit .223 in Class A for the Mariners in 1992 and was out of pro ball by 1993).

April 6, 1995: Gene Harris becomes free agent, signs with Philadelphia Phillies

June 18, 1995: Gene Harris traded by Phillies to Baltimore Orioles for Andy Van Slyke.

July 31, 1998: Randy Johnson traded by Mariners to Houston for Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama.

Jan. 8, 2004: Carlos Guillen traded by Mariners to Tigers for Juan Gonzalez and Ramon Santiago.

June 27, 2004: Freddy Garcia traded by Mariners with Ben Davis to White Sox for Mike Morse, Miguel Olivo and Jeremy Reed.

July 31, 2005: Miguel Olivo traded by Mariners to Padres for Natanael Mateo and Miguel Ojeda.

Oct. 11, 2005: Miguel Ojeda selected off waivers from the Mariners by the Rockies.

Nov. 18, 2005: Ramon Santiago released by Mariners.

Jan. 4, 2006: Ramon Santiago signs as free agent with Tigers.

July 30, 2006: Miguel Ojeda purchased by Rangers from Rockies.

Dec. 6, 2006: Freddy Garcia traded by White Sox to Phillies for Gio Gonzalez and Gavin Floyd.

Jan. 3, 2008: Gio Gonzalez traded by White Sox with Ryan Sweeney and Fautino de los Santos to the A's for Nick Swisher.

Aug. 12, 2008: Freddy Garcia signs minor-league contract with Tigers.

Dec. 11, 2008: Jeremy Reed traded by Mariners with J.J. Putz and Sean Green to Mets for Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, Maikel Cleto and Ezequiel Carrera; Mariners also trade Luis Valbuena to Cleveland for Franklin Gutierrez. The Indians receive Joe Smith from the Mets.

Jan. 22, 2009: Freddy Garcia signs minor-league contract with Mets.

Jan. 28, 2009: Aaron Heilman traded by Mariners to Cubs for Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson.

April 28, 2009: Freddy Garcia released by Mets.

Note: Brian Holman went 32-35 in 2 1/2 years with the Mariners and came within one out of pitching a perfect game against Oakland on April 20, 1990. He hurt his arm and never pitched in the major leagues again after 1991. Juan Gonzalez played one-plus years of Class A in the Mariners' farm system before returning to the Detroit organization. He is currently in the minor leagues with the Angels and has never advanced above Class AA. Andy Van Slyke played 63 games with the Phillies in 1995 and retired. Natanael Mateo never made it past Double-A with the Mariners and apparently is pitching in the independent leagues. John Halama went 41-31 in four years with the Mariners, then kicked around as a free agent with the A's, Rays, Red Sox, Nationals and Orioles organizations, winning 15 more games through 2006. He is now pitching for the indepedent Southern Maryland Blue Crabs of the Atlantic League. Mike Morse remains in the Mariners' organization with Triple-A Tacoma. Randy Johnson is with the Giants, four victories shy of 300 (of which 130 came with the Mariners).

A little bit of draft news today -- MLB announced that the draft will be moved to prime time and expand from two days to three, with the first day held in Studio 42 at MLB Network in Secaucus, New Jersey.

My first impression: It's going to make our deadline for writing stories for the next day's newspaper a little tighter. But that's our problem, and nothing we can't handle.

I suppose it's inevitable that baseball keep trying to turn its draft into the same kind of showcase event that the NFL has transformed into a true spectacle. The fatal flaw, of course, is that casual fans have never heard of the vast majority of college and high school draftees. It's hard to work up any sort of froth over largely anonymous names. The exception this year is Stephen Strasburg, who has garnered an uncommon amount of publicity that is threatening to turn him into some sort of Sidd Finch-like mythological character. I suspect the Strasburg hype will help ratings considerably.

The draft will begin Tuesday, June 9 at 3 p.m. Seattle time. The first day will consist of the first 111 picks -- round one, compensation round A after the first round, round two, round three, and the second compensation round.

The draft will resume Wednesday at 9 a.m. our time, with the fourth round; it is tentatively scheduled to go through the 30th round. The draft will conclude on Thursday with the 31st through 50th rounds.

MLB Network will broadcast the first-round selections live,and air a live video stream beginning with the compensation round through the remainder of the day's selections.

The Mariners will figure prominently on the first day. They are one of five clubs with two picks in the first round (No. 2 overall, as well as No. 27; the latter is compensation from Philadelphia for signing Raul Ibanez). Others with two picks are Washington (No. 1 and 10), Colorado (No. 11 and 32), Arizona (No. 16 and 17), the Angels (No. 24 and 25).

The Mariners also have the 33rd overall pick (which is the first pick of compensation round A, also the result of the Ibanez signing). They have the 51st overall pick (which is the second pick of the second round), as well as the 82nd pick (the second pick of the third round).

It's a major opportunity to fatten up the farm system, as well as get a star-caliber player with the No. 2 overall pick. I remain steadfast in my belief that Strasburg will be taken by the Nationals. If not, the M's would have a chance to pick the pitcher that is regarded as the best college arm of the last 10 years. Which, of course, is absolutely no guarantee he will become an ace.

The people have spoken. In our Mariners' movie, the role of Don Wakamatsu will no longer be played by Dean Cain. By acclimation, Cain has been replaced by Kyle Chandler, who portrays Coach Eric Taylor in the television show, "Friday Night Lights." As numerous readers pointed out, the resemblance is uncanny. Judge for yourself:

DON WAKAMATSU

Thanks for all the other suggestions, but I'm standing firm on the rest of my cast. For now. Carry on.

I was snooping around on The Google, looking up some Strasburg stuff (I love me some Strasburg), and I happened to run across this video of a high-school sophomore from Las Vegas named Bryce Harper.

Now, draftphiles and prospect gurus are well aware of this kid, but I wasn't familiar with him. After doing a little more snooping, I find out that he's already the consensus pick to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft. Jim Callis of Baseball America wrote that he would be the No. 1 pick in the 2010 draft, if not for the fact that he'll only be a high school junior. Harper is a left-handed hitting catcher (6-foot-3, 205 pounds) who also dabbles in pitching and throws 94 mph. His stroke is just outrageous, at least on this video, which shows a Home Run Derby during a high school showcase at Tropicana Field. Yeah, it's a metal bat, but Harper is shown hitting a 500-foot homer (502 feet was the estimate). Watch the video and tell me if you're not impressed. He also hit homers measured at 460, 484, 485, 405, and 477

The Boston Globe profiled Harper in March, and it's clear he's obsessed with becoming a major-league player. So obsessed, in fact, that I fear burnout might hit him some day. And guess with whom he's already made contact? Why, Scott Boras, naturally.

Who knows if this guy will pan out? But it will be fun to watch him develop. I have a feeling we'll be hearing the name "Bryce Harper" quite a bit in the coming years.

During the dark days of the Mariners' existence -- circa 2004-2008, also known as "the Bavasi years" -- the hope died early. Real early. I suspect that's part of what makes this early run by the 2009 Mariners so exhilirating to fans, beyond the fact that it's largely unexpected. It's the promise of meaningful games all season, something that's been sorely missing around here except for a short-lived, ill-fated run by the 2007 Mariners.

In recent years, the Mariners have been out of contention so early that they reached the "playing out the string" portion of the schedule by May -- June at the latest. The one "pennant race" in which they were involved still ended with a bad taste. The 2007 Mariners were one game behind the Angels on Aug. 25, with a chance to pull into a tie if they beat Texas. But they blew that game, and proceeded to lose nine in a row (including a three-game sweep at home to the Angels), and 13 of their next 14 -- an epic collapse. No need to recount those sad details again, except to say that by the time the dust had cleared, the Mariners were 9 1/2 games back on Sept. 11 -- hopeless yet again.

Here's a look at their record after 19 games in each of the last five years (the '09 Mariners stand at 12-7, with a four-game lead in the AL West, and also on May 31, which has always been a traditional line of demarcation in baseball.

2004

After 19 games: 6-13, fourth place, 5 games behind
On May 31: 19-31, fourth place, 11 games behind.
Final record: 63-99, fourth place, 29 games behind.

2005

After 19 games: 9-10, tied for third, 2 games behind.
On May 31: 21-30, third place, 9.5 games behind
Final record: 69-93, fourth place, 26 games behind

2006

After 19 games: 7-12, fourth place, 2.5 games behind
On May 31: 23-32, fourth place, 6 games behind.
Final record: 78-84, fourth place, 15 games behind

2007

After 19 games: 9-10, third place, 1.5 games behind
On May 31: 26-24, second place, 4.5 games behind
Final record: 88-74, second place, 6 games behind

2008

After 19 games: 9-10, third place, 3 games behind
On May 31: 21-35, fourth place, 11.5 games behind.
Final record: 61-101, fourth place, 39 games behind

As you can see, things weren't looking too good by this stage of the season, but they really fell apart in the next month. The current Mariners, however, have put themselves in good position to remain relevant for much longer than most of their recent versions.

...The Mariners would be preparing for their first-round playoff matchup against the wild-card team, either Boston or the Yankees, who would be meeting in a one-game playoff (paging Bucky Dent. Paging Bucky Dent).

The other division series would feature the No. 1-seeded Blue Jays against the winner of a three-way playoff for the Central Division title among the White Sox, Tigers and Royals. (The Jays couldn't play the wild-card team because they're from the same division).

In the National League, the team with the best record, Florida, would face the wild-card team -- either the Padres, Reds or Pirates, depending on the outcome of that three-way playoff. And the Cardinals would meet the Dodgers in the other first-round matchup.

What's that? Still 5 1/2 months to go? I know, I know.

But I'm starting to believe.

It looks like "Moneyball" is coming to the silver screen, with Brad Pitt playing Billy Beane and now Demitri Martin signed to play his lovable sidekick, Paul DePodesta. (I have a feeling I should have heard of Demitri Martin, but alas, I haven't. But I'm sure he's going to be very good). Steven Soderbergh, who brought us Sex, Lies and Videotape as well as Ocean's Eleven, Twelve and Thirteen, is set to direct.

It struck me that if the Mariners somehow keep on rolling and wind up, let's just say for the sake of argument and a blog post, winning the World Series, Hollywood just couldn't resist that classic rags-to-riches story. There would have to be a Mariners' movie, right?

So if Brad Pitt plays Billy Beane, who plays Jack Zduriencik? How about Chuck Armstrong? Don Wakamatsu? Ichiro? Ken Griffey Jr.? Howard Lincoln? Lee Pelekoudas? Bill Bavasi? Geoff Baker?

To cast the Mariners' movie (Working title: "Don With The Wind") , I solicited suggestions from the Seattle Times sports staff, and racked my own brain. Here's what I came up with. I welcome your suggestions and comments. (And Mariners' folks, if you see this, please be assured that this is all done in good fun, with no malice intended).

1. JACK ZDURIENCIK

Assuming that Mike Myers (the actor, not the former lefty reliever) isn't available...

...then the candidates are: Ben Kingsley, who won an Academy Award for Ghandi.

Action star Bruce Willis.

And the first runnerup, Michael Chiklis, star of "The Commish":

The role of Jack Zduriencik goes to...from "Sex and the City," Evan Handler:

2. DON WAKAMATSU.

Second runnerup is former "Saved by the Bell" heartthrob Mario Lopez.

First runnerup is "Last Samurai" actor Ken Watanabe:

And the role of Don Wakamatsu will be played by "Superman," Dean Cain:

3. HOWARD LINCOLN

There seems to be a surprising consensus on this casting decision. (But it might not have been so easy if the great Jason Robards were still alive).

The nod goes to veteran character actor James Cromwell, most noted for "Babe" and "L.A. Confidential":

4. CHUCK ARMSTRONG

Armstrong's part, of course, requires a distinguished-looking, silver-haired actor. Because I'm old, I immediately thought of Jack Cassidy (disregard the mustache).

:

Someone else mentioned Ted Knight (Ted Baxter from the Mary Tyler Moore Show, and, of course, his masterpiece, Judge Smails from Caddyshack):

But for the role of team president Chuck Armstrong, I'm going to go with two-time Academy Award nominee,, Charles Durning:

:

5. BILL BAVASI

One vote went to the versatile Chiklis, another to pro wrestler Stone Cold Steve Austin:

,

Someone else said Vincent Price. Price died in 1993, so he's not eligible, but he would have been a strong contender:

For some reason, Billy Zane from Titanic was the first image that popped into my head:

If you want to stay in house, you can go this route:

But the role of Bill Bavasi goes to (and I give full credit to Percy Allen for seeing the connection)...the great actor, John Malkovich:

6. LEE PELEKOUDAS.

Of course, the obvious pick is Tom Bosley from "Happy Days." I have a hunch Lee has gotten that his whole life."

Keep in mind, however, that Bosley is now 81 years old. So I'm going to go outside the box and consider versatile Broadway and television star Mandy Patinkin:

Close, but the trademark Pelekoudas hair is just not right on Patinkin. So I'm going to with another Broadway star, Nathan Lane. Not a perfect match, but the best I can do:

7. KEN GRIFFEY JR.

You've got to have a role for Junior in this epic, right? My first thought is Chris Rock, because when he's on a roll, Griffey can be as funny as Rock.

But I'm not sure Rock could pull off the baseball scenes, so I'm going with Academy Award winner Jamie Foxx:

8. ICHIRO.

No Mariners' movie would be complete without a prominent role for Ichiro. My office experts suggested every Asian actor imaginable-- Tony Leung, Jackie Chan, Jet Li and Daniel Dae Kim, among them. But there's only one person who can truly do Ichiro justice:

9. GEOFF BAKER

The gonzo blogger extraordinaire would be an obvious foil in a Mariner movie. Now, some of you have likened him to childhood singing star Donny Osmond:

But far more of you look at Geoff and see Office Space actor Ron Livingston, so he gets the part.

10. LARRY STONE.

It's my idea, so I'm writing in a part for myself as the dashing young (ahem) reporter.

This guy's all tied up:

And this guy is booked:

So I have no choice but to go with this guy -- once he's done shooting "Moneyball," of course:

,

In today's paper, I have a column on the Tampa Bay Rays, in which I discuss last year's amazing turnaround, and their quest to sustain it. I also delve into the Mariners' chances of being the Rays of 2009.

Because of space considerations, I had to leave out quite a few interesting quotes from Andrew Friedman, the Rays' 32-year-old head of baseball operations (who I talked to by phone last Friday) and Jack Zduriencik (who I interviewed on Monday). I thought they were worthy of a blog post.

Before I get to that, however, I wanted to bring up a column by SI's Tom Verducci, who pointed out just how relatively common it is for losing teams to make a one-season turnaround. Since the expanded playoffs began in 1995, 29 of 112 playoff teams (26 percent, or an average of two teams per season) reached the postseason immediately after a losing season.

Verducci pointed to three factors that marked such turnaorunds. Two out of the three are promising for the Mariners:

1) Run prevention is more important that run production. Check. The Mariners really attacked defensive improvement with the additions of Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez, and have been one of the top defensive teams in baseball so far.

2) Turnaround teams were not as bad as they appeared. Check. The Mariners definitely under-performed last year, for a variety of reasons.

3) Hope only goes so far. Uh oh. Verducci notes that no team made the playoffs the year after losing more than 97 games (the Diamondbacks went from 97 losses to the playffs from 1998 to '99. The M's, of course, lost 101 last year.

I asked Friedman what he thought of the great debate all spring about who would be "the next Rays."

"For us, we've taken a little bit of different things from different organizations, but each situation is so unique you can't possibly replicate what others do,'' he said. "We try to learn what we can from other teams. That said, we have to incorporate it into our own model.

"It's certainly flattering, but all 29 other teams have their own unique challenges they have to deal with. People talk a lot about our defensive improvement from '07 to ;'08. If we had different personnel, or different people coming, our mindset would have been different. With (Evan) Longoria coming, what we thought Aki (second baseman Akinori Iwamura) could accomplish, that's where we p laced a great emphasis. With different personnel, we would have gone in a different direction."

I asked Friedman if defense was still an exploitable commodity, with so many teams now focusing on it, much like on-base percentage became a focus after "Moneyball.''

"Certainly, it's pretty popular now,'' he said. "It's something that, just like any other facet of the game, if you put too much emphasis on it...Our goal is not just to improve our defense, but to be more well-rounded, with footspeed, power in the middle of the lineup, our pitching. We felt we had reached that point last offseason, but for us, it wasn't just about defense.''

Yes, last year's Opening Day right fielder for the Mariners has decided to hang it up. He didn't make the Red Sox out of camp and was playing for Pawtucket.

One more of Bill Bavasi's "it seemed like a good idea at the time" moves.

You gotta love this Mark Harrison photo from the Seattle Times, April 12 of last year. The caption reads, "Richie Sexson is greeted at home plate by Brad Wilkerson and Jose Vidro after his two run homer."

Provide your own snarky comment.

Our old friend Randy Johnson (love that mullet!) was superb on Sunday, taking a no-hitter into the seventh against Arizona en route to his 296th career victory.

My old Seattle Times colleague Bob Sherwin, now writing for Examiner.com, points out that if certain circumstances fall into place, he could be going for his 300th win when the Mariners play the Giants in an interleague series at Safeco Field, May 22-24.

The first circumstance, of course, is that the rotation has to line up for Johnson to pitch in Seattle. That looks promising. If the Giants keep their five-man rotation intact, not skipping anyone's turn despite day's off, Unit lines up to pitch the series opener on May 22. And if the Giants keep Johnson pitching every fifth day, he lines up to pitch the series finale on May 24.

The second circumstance that needs to happen -- a little trickier -- is that Johnson has to win three more games prior to that start in Seattle. Two more wins before then won't do (unless Giants manager Bruce Bochy plans to bring the Big Unit out of the bullpen after he starts, in a reprise of the 1995 playoffs). And four more wins, bringing him to 300 victories prior to his Seattle appearance, certainly won't do.

No, three is the operative number. And Johnson should have five starts prior to coming to Seattle. Three wins in five starts seems reasonable, doesn't it? We'll see how that goes.

But if the stars align, and Big Unit comes into Seattle with 299 wins, that should be an amazing spectacle. The Johnson-Griffey matchup alone will be electric.

Johnson has pitched three times at Safeco since he was traded to Houston on July 31, 1998, and has dominated in two of those games. In all three, he received a huge ovation (somewhat surprising, since there was a prominent school of thought that Johnson had tanked the first part of the 1998 season; he was 9-10, 4.33 before the trade, and 10-1, 1.28 after. I never bought into that, by the way).

Johnson's first appearance in Seattle came July 20, 1999 (the sixth game ever played at Safeco Field), and he pitched an eight-hit shutout, striking out 10 in a 6-0 Arizona win. Griffey went 0-for-3 with a strikeout, and was hit by a Big Unit pitch, which Junior recalled with amusement in spring training.

"He just started laughing,'' Griffey said. "It brushed me, didn't hit me square."

Then, in a memorable matchup on Aug. 31, 2005, Johnson out-pitched Felix Hernandez in a 2-0 Yankees' win, blanking the Mariners on three hits over seven innings. On Aug. 24, 2006, still with the Yankees, Johnson went the distance at Safeco but absorbed the loss as Jarrod Washburn and the M's won, 4-2.

That Giants' series could be a real doozy if local hero Tim Lincecum gets a start as well as Johnson perhaps going for 300. We'll see how it plays out over the next month.

(AP photo)

I've gotten numerous e-mails from people claiming that Chris Jakubauskas should not have been charged with the loss in Thursday's 5-1 Angels' victory.

Let's recap what happened. The Mariners led 1-0 heading into the sixth. Jakubauskas gave up a single to Chone Figgins, got a fly ball for the first out, and allowed a single by Bobby Abreu that left runners on first and third.

At that point, Roy Corcoran replaced Jakubauskas. Corcoran got Torii Hunter to hit a grounder to third, and Adrian Beltre gunned down Figgins trying to score. And therein lies the confusion. As we all know, Corcoran self-destructed from that point, issuing a walk to Kendry Morales that loaded the bases, and a single by Mike Napoli that scored Abreu and Hunter (who reached first on the fielder's choice that resulted in Figgins being thrown out at home) to give the Angels a 2-1 lead they never relinquished.

Some readers wondered, logically, why Jakubauskas was charged with two runs. After all, he left with two runners on base, and one of them was thrown out at the plate. They felt the go-ahead run -- Hunter -- should have been charged to Corcoran, since he was the one that put him on base.

But that's not the way it worked. Official scorer Eric Radovich got it exactly right. I got out a rule book and found the operative rule: 10.16(g). Here's how it reads:

When pitchers are changed during an inning, the official scorer shall not charge the relief pitcher with any run (earned or unearned) scored by a runner who was on base at the time such relief pitcher entered the game, nor for runs scored by any runner who reaches base on a fielder's choice that puts out a runner left on base by any preceding pitcher.

There is also a footnote comment that reads: It is the intent of Rule 10.16(g) to charge each pitcher with the number of runners he put on base, rather than with the individual runners. When a pitcher puts runners on base and is relieved, such pitcher shall be charged with all runs subsequently scored up to and including the number of runners such pitcher left on base when such pitcher left the game, unless such runners are put out without action by the batter (i.e., caught stealing, picked off base or called out for interference when a batter-runner does not reach first base on the play).

Two thoughts: One, it's amazing how the scorebook has an answer for virtually every contingency. And two, it makes sense, when you think about it. The reason Hunter was on first was because Beltre had to deal with the runners left by Jakubauskas. Corcoran should not be penalized for those runners, even the "replacement" runner necessitated by the need to put out Jakubauskas's runner at the plate.

Hope that clears it up.

It was somewhat lost in the multi-faceted excitement of Wednesday's 11-3 victory over the Angels, but Ichiro's pursuit of the Isao Harimoto's hits record is a big, big deal in Japan.

The 68-year-old Harimoto, who had a long and distinguished career (he debuted in 1959 and retired in 1981) is the only Japanese player to achieve 3,000 hits -- 3,085, to be exact. He also hit 504 homers and had a .319 career average, making him one of their all-time greats.

Ichiro had 1,278 hits in Japan for the Orix Blue Wave from 1992-2000, and now has 1,807 for the Mariners, counting his two last night. That's a total of 3,085 -- tied with Harimoto.

When he surpasses Harimoto's total, does that make him the Japanese hits leader, considering his career has been split between Japan and North America? I'm sure that topic is being hotly debated on sports talk radio in Japan and in newspaper columns.

To me, it's a moot point. Both can claim tremendous achievements. Ichiro will have the most hits of any Japanese professional player. Harimoto will remain the hit king of the Japanese major leagues. Each individual fan and observer can judge for him or herself the significance of those milestones, much like each fan in 1961 could judge for himself how Roger Maris hitting 61 homers in a 162-game season compared to Babe Ruth hitting 60 in a 154-game season. If you feel there's an asterisk needed for Ichiro, you can apply your own.

Here's the opinion of Harimoto himself, who traveled to Seattle to watch Ichiro and was in attendance Wednesday. He spoke to reporters before last night's game.

"Yes, it's a real record,'' he said of Ichiro's combined mark.

But asked if he considers himself the record holder in Japan, Harimoto replied (through an interpreter), "A hundred years from now, I'm still the record holder in Japan.''

(Freelance journalist Brad Lefton, a fluent Japanese speaker who has written numerous outstanding articles for the Seattle Times on Japanese ballplayers, has an in-depth piece on Harimoto ready to go. We'll be publishing it after the record is broken. I don't want to give too much away, but he's had a fascinating life. I mean Harimoto, not Lefton -- but I hear Brad's brother is the finest magician in greater St.Louis).

Harimoto pointed out that in Japan, great hitters are walked much more often than Ichiro has been over here. That fact, he believes, makes it difficult for a player in Japan to surpass his mark.

"If you hit that many, pitchers are always going to walk you,'' he said. "Here, Ichiro could have five hits and they're still going to pitch to him. In Japan if you have two hits in the game, they are going to walk you or worse (he pointed at his head, indicating the hitter would be knocked down or hit)."

Harimoto apparently pegged Ichiro years ago as the man likely to surpass his total.

"Actually when he was in Japan, I told him that he was going to break my record,'' he said. "That was probably like 15 years ago. I don't remember telling him that, but Ichiro remembers very well. He told me about it.

"At that time I could tell Ichiro was already really good."

He still is, and after tonight, Ichiro could very well have more hits than any Japanese player in history.

Ken Griffey Jr. was instrumental in the way baseball celebrates Jackie Robinson Day, suggesting to commissioner Bud Selig more than a decade ago that players for this one day a year be allowed to wear No. 42, which has been retired by MLB. This year's celebration, taking place today throughout the majors, has been expanded to all players wearing No. 42.

" I just wanted to say thank you in my own little subtle way, and that was it,'' Griffey said Wednesday of his original proposal. " That's what it's about: Giving back to the people that helped you.

"I knew the (Robinson) family. It was just my way of saying thank you. I had no idea it would be something like this. I think this is a great cause. There's a lot of people in here that wouldn't be in here if it wasn't for him. The family deserves this. You never know how long it would have been if he would have failed.''

Griffey said he was steeped in the history of Negro League Baseball as well as Robinson's struggles by his father, Ken Griffey Sr.., as well as some baseball pioneers he encountered.

"Well, I had Joe Black, Brooks Lawrence, Chuck Harmon Sr., who all were good friends wth my dad. They figured I should know a little about baseball history, or just history itself. They proceeded to drill me on certain things. Then getting to play in pro ball, I had a guy named Willie Mays pull me aside every year. They didn't tell you like they were drilling it into your head. It was more them telling stories like a grandfather would tell their grandson. That's how I learned about certain things. "

Griffey has strong opinions on the decline of African-American players in the major leagues, and how baseball can began attracting more African-Americans to the ball fields and ball parks.

"First of all, they've got to start off with better commercials,'' he said. "The commercials are (bad). Think about it. You look at the NBA, NFL, their commercials, and they make you want to go out and play basketball, go play football. They show the excitement of the game itself. In baseball, it's come to the bleeping All-Star Game. And that's it. They don't show the excitement of the game."

I asked Griffey if he has told this to Selig.

"I've said the same thing for three years, four years, five years -- maybe seven. I think you've got to show the kids the fun side of playing the sport, instead of just, 'Hey, show up here.'

"If you're going to see a drastic improvement, it has to be at the ground level. That's where the love of the game starts. It doesn't start in high school or college. It starts off in t-ball. You've got to want to go out there and play...It doesn't matter whether you're black or white; the commercials are terrible. It doesn't show who we are as people. It just promotes one spot, postseason or the All-Star game. It doesn't show any of the fun stuff that goes on in between pitches, or the dugout, where guys are laughing."

I think this problem goes deeper than commercials, but I agree with Griffey that better promotion would be a good starting point.

I predict that the hero of tonight's Mariners' game will be wearing No. 42.

And so will the goat.

That's because every player on the field -- every player in all 15 games played today in the major leagues, in fact -- will be wearing No. 42 to honor Jackie Robinson. It is the 62nd anniversary of Robinson breaking the color barrier with the Brooklyn Dodgers, perhaps the most significant event in the sport's history.

The decline of African-American players continues to be an issue in baseball. The Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sports, out of the University of Central Florida, reported in its latest study in 2008 that African-Americans constituted 8.2 percent of major-league rosters in 2007 -- a 20-year low.

The institute hasn't come out with its latest report, but the Boston Globe earlier this month did its own survey and found there were 73 African-Americans on Opening Day rosters -- about 9 percent of the players. The Mariners have one -- Ken Griffey Jr. The Red Sox have none. The Dodgers lead the majors with seven African-Americans.

Here is the Globe's breakdown:

Seven - Los Angeles Dodgers: C Russell Martin, RHP James McDonald, RHP Cory Wade, 1B James Loney, 2B Orlando Hudson, OF Matt Kemp, OF Juan Pierre.

Five - Los Angeles Angels: OF Torii Hunter, OF Chone Figgins, 2B Howie Kendrick, LHP Darren Oliver, OF Gary Matthews Jr.

Four - Milwaukee: 1B Prince Fielder, 2B Rickie Weeks, 3B Bill Hall, CF Mike Cameron; Pittsburgh: LHP Donnie Veal, RHP Ian Snell, OF Craig Monroe, OF Nyjer Morgan; Arizona: 1B Tony Clark, RP Tom Gordon (DL), OF Justin Upton, OF Chris Young; Washington: OF Lastings Milledge, OF Elijah Dukes, OF Willie Harris, 1B Dmitri Young (DL); Detroit: RHP Edwin Jackson, DH Marcus Thames, CF Curtis Granderson, LHP Dontrelle Willis (DL); Cincinnati: 2B Brandon Phillips, LHP Arthur Rhodes, INF Jerry Hairston Jr., OF Chris Dickerson.

Three - San Francisco: OF Randy Winn, OF Fred Lewis, SS Emmanuel Burris; Houston: RHP LaTroy Hawkins, CF Michael Bourn, LHP Wesley Wright; San Diego: OF Cliff Floyd, OF-INF Scott Hairston, OF Jody Gerut; Chicago Cubs: 1B Derrick Lee, OF Joey Gathright, OF Milton Bradley;

Two - Minnesota: OF Delmon Young, OF Denard Span; Chicago White Sox: OF Jermaine Dye, OF Dewayne Wise; Cleveland: OF Ben Francisco, OF Grady Sizemore; Tampa Bay: OF B.J. Upton, OF Carl Crawford; Baltimore: OF Adam Jones, SS Robert Andino, Philadelphia: 1B Ryan Howard, SS Jimmy Rollins; New York Yankees: SS Derek Jeter, LHP CC Sabathia; New York Mets: OF Marlon Anderson, OF Gary Sheffield.

One - Kansas City: OF Coco Crisp; Florida: OF Cameron Maybin; Atlanta: OF Garret Anderson; Colorado: OF Dexter Fowler; Seattle: OF Ken Griffey Jr.; Toronto: OF Vernon Wells; Oakland: OF Rajai Davis; St. Louis: INF Joe Thurston; Texas: OF Marlon Byrd.

None: Boston.

I was the first reporter at Safeco Field today, partly because I wanted to avoid the traffic and parking zoo that always occurs on Opening Day, and partly because I enjoy soaking up the atmosphere. The grounds crew has been busy putting last-minute touches on the field,and now a few players have trickled out for stretching and warmups. For the record, Mark Lowe was the first player out, at about 10:15 a.m.

Glancing at the standings today, it's still striking to see the Mariners on top of the AL West with a 5-2 record. That compares with 2-5 at this point last year, when they were already 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Angels,.

But they're not the only team that jumps out after a week.

How about the Orioles, also 5-2? They haven't had a winning season since 1997, and are coming off a 93-loss season.

How about the Royals at 4-3? They lost 87 games in '08, and have had one winning season (83-79 in 2003) since 1994.

How about the Padres at 6-2? They lost 99 games last year and were universally picked to battle the Nationals for the honor of worst team in the National League.

How about the Pirates at 4-3? They lost 95 games last year and have not had a winning record since Barry Bonds left after the 1992 season -- 16 years and counting, the longest streak in professional sports.

How about the Braves at 5-1. They lost 90 games last year and finished 20 games out of first place, almost completely distancing themselves from the Atlanta dynasty of the 1990s and early 2000s.

The point, I guess, is that it's too early to get too giddy about the Mariners, or any of these teams. I checked the standings from last year after the Mariners had played seven games, and it included the Orioles at 5-1, the Padres at 5-3, and the Royals at 4-2. Don't ever forget that the baseball season is the most perilous and unforgiving in sports.

But that's pretty obvious. The other, and perhaps more pertinent, point is why not get giddy about the Mariners, or any of those teams, if you're a fan? It's a new year, with new hope, new dreams. Chances are that out of the Mariners, Orioles, Royals, Pirates, Padres and Braves, one of those teams will have a breakout season. Maybe more than one. I'm sure hardened Rays' fans were preaching restraint early last year.

If you can't believe on the day of the home opener, when can you?

I'm not talking about the play on the field, which for the most part has been compelling.

I'm talking about the heartache, tragedy and death that has permeated this young season.

Consider all that has happened since the Phillies-Braves ushered in the 2009 season on Sunday, April 5.

One of the great voices of baseball -- among other sports -- was silenced Monday with the death of long-time Phillies' announcer Harry Kalas. He collapsed in the broadcast booth prior to the Phillies' game with the Nationals in Washington D.C. Kalas was 73.

Kalas won the highest honor in baseball broadcasting, the Ford C. Frick Award, in 2002. Mariners' broadcaster Dave Niehaus last year won the same award, which is presented in Cooperstown, N.Y., during the Hall of Fame induction ceremony. The Frick Award has been given out since 1978, and there have been 33 winners, including the 2009 honoree, Tony Kubek.

"He was one of those very distinctive voices,'' Niehaus said during the Mariners' workout Monday. "I didn't hear him that much on baseball, but I knew he was great. I heard him a lot during the winter on the NFL.

"Everybody who's any good develops his own style. He had his own style. You knew when Harry Kalas was on, who it was. And he seemed like a heck of a nice guy. (Phillies' color man) Larry Andersen, who's from here, really enjoyed working with him. It's a great loss for the Phillies and their fans."

Being in different leagues and training in different states, Niehaus has had only a passing acquaintance with Kalas, but said he's always been a fan.

"His voice was a signature voice. Like Vin Scully's was a signature voice, Harry Caray's was a signature voice, a signature call. Harry Kalas was in that group. Once you heard his voice, you knew who it was. He didn't have to say his name."

(Wow -- I've been busy covering the Mariners' workout and hadn't heard until just this second that Mark Fidyrich died as well. I vividly remember the phenomenon that The Bird created in 1976. He was a true one-of-a-kind character, and his passing at age 54, along with that of Kalas, makes this a very sad day).

I'm here at Safeco Field at the Mariners' workout, and had a chance to be part of a group interview with Ichiro.

He looked very fit -- see the quote in the headline -- and was in a great mood. He even got in a couple of good-natured shots at the media (at least they sounded good-natured), saying that doctors told him the best way to prevent a recurrence of his bleeding ulcer was to stay away from the media.

He has one more blood test to take before being officially cleared to come off the DL Wednesday, but he said, "In my mind I'm playing on Wednesday."

He was flattered the team hung his jersey in the dugout during the road trip.

"It made me very happy, but at the same time, I'm not dead yet. I'll make sure to get that jersey back,'' he said.

Other quotes from Ichiro:

On what may have caused his ulcer: " It's something I don't mind talking about, but I don't really understand what was going on. It made me feel, I guess I'm human."

On how the team played on the road trip: " I couldn't watch the games on TV, because I was in Arizona, so it was very annoying I didn't get to watch. Of course, I got to see the results, and it made me very happy. I guess I'm a little upset we lost two games."

In retrospect, was going on the DL the right decision: "I don't feel that way at all. I wish I would have played. Now the team owes me. Now I can get a favor in the future from the team.

What might it be: "I'm still thinking about it."

On what he's learned from this: "Up to this point, I've been able to play baseball with health. I kind of took it for granted, but now I clearly understand the joy of being healthy and being able to play baseball."

On whether the stress of the WBC contributed to the ulcer: "I don't know, but that's just a guess. At the end, it's a guess. When you think about it, I could get an ulcer from the stress of talking to you guys.".

On whether his appearances in extended spring games appearances kept him sharp: "The hitting in Peoria was very good for me, but at the same time, the first time you play in a season, you can never be completely prepared for that, in any circumstances."

Jeff over at Lookout Landing made a good point yesterday about Franklin Gutierrez's sensational diving catch of Alexi Casilla's drive -- the best of many great defensive plays by Gutierrez. He writes, "Let this be the game that allows Gutierrez to win Seattle's heart. Let this be the game that compels the city to forgive Jack Zduriencik for trading their favorite closer."

I think there's something to the notion about creating indelible moments that win over fans. I think back, specifically, to Mike Cameron in 2000. He had the thankless task of replacing the sainted Ken Griffey Jr in center. No one knew too much about Cammy back then. On Opening Day, he struck out three times, which didn't help. Of course, the opposing pitcher was Pedro Martinez, in his absolute prime, who made the entire team look silly with seven innings of two-hit, shutout ball, including 11 strikeouts.

Then the Yankees came to town (how's that for a season-opening homestand -- the Red Sox, followed by the Yankees?). On April 7, Cameron had his signature moment, leaping over the fence after a long run to rob Derek Jeter of a homer and help preserve the Mariners' 7-5 victory at Safeco Field.

The crowd went nuts. As Bob Finnigan wrote in the Seattle Times, "It was as if with this outpouring of affection Seattle was saying: "Welcome, Mike."

Continued Finnigan: "These people know great play in center. This play was the equal of any from...well, from the previous center fielder."

Mike Cameron was a very popular figure from that moment on. Of course, it helped that he had a winning personality, continued to perform well, and the team made the postseason in each of his first two seasons. But many Mariners' fans still pinpoint that catch as the beginning of their Cameron love affair.

Fast forward one year -- almost exactly one year, in fact, to April 11, 2001, in Oakland. The new right fielder, a mysterious fellow named Ichiro Suzuki, fields a single by Ramon Hernandez, and unleashes a throw -- The Throw -- to nail Terrence Long trying to advance from first to third. A legend was born.

Again, I turned to the archive and found Finnigan's writeup of the game: "Think of the best throw you've ever seen and forget it. This had to be as good if not better, a 200-foot lightning bolt that was never more than 10 feet off the ground as it cut down Terrence Long trying to advance to third base on Ramon Hernandez's single to right.

Buhner said if he has seen a better throw, "it hasn't been for a long time. You just don't see a guy throw like that all the way in the air, when it's cold as hell, when he's been sitting for seven innings."

I had forgotten that part of it -- Ichiro entered the game in the eighth inning as a pinch-hitter and singled to start the winning rally in a 3-0 Seattle victory.

That moment, that throw, accelerated the perception that Ichiro was more than just a good player, but rather something special. It was one play that reverberated around baseball, and into the consciousness of Mariner fans.

Will Gutierrez's amazing catch have the same effect? It very well could. Can you think of any other moments in the past that have instantly won you over to a particular player?

The Hagerstown (Md.) Herald-Mail, near Adenhart's hometown of Williamsport, Md., has lots of tributes and photos.

UPDATE 11:15 A.M. Here's a more detailed story from the Los Angeles Times, with confirmation that tonight's game has been called off.

UPDATE 10:15: The Angels are considering postponing their scheduled game tonight with the A's. I think that would be a wise move. No one on the Angels, certainly, is going to be in the mind frame to play a game.

This is an unbelievably tragic story that I'm having trouble processing. But here it is, from the Los Angeles Times.

Adenhart, who was a member of the Angels' starting rotation at the outset of the season, pitched six scoreless innings last night in the Angels' 6-4 loss to Oakland at Anaheim Stadium. He would have earned the victory had reliever Brian Fuentes not given up three runs in the ninth. It was just his fourth career start, but the Angels had very high hopes for the 22-year-old pitcher. MLB.com's Lyle Spencer focused his game story on Adenhart's strong outing.

Apparently, he was the victim of a hit-and-run driver that ran a red light in Fullerton shortly after midnight. The driver was eventually apprehended by police.

The Angels have suffered an inordinate amount of tragedy in their existence. This is their fourth player to die in a car accident, following infielder Chico Ruiz (1972), rookie reliever Bruce Heinbechner (1974) and shortstop Mike Miley (1977). In addition, reliever Minnie Rojas was paralyzed in a car accident that killed his wife and two of his three children.

Also, outfielder Lyman Bostock was murdered in 1978, rookie pitcher Dick Wantz died at age 25 of a brain tumor in 1965, and former reliever Donnie Moore shot his wife and then himself in 1989, three years after giving up the homer to Boston's Dave Henderson that kept the Angels out of the World Series.

This one really hurts, having a 22-year-old daughter myself.

As Geoff pointed out in his blog today, a lot of Opening Day starters had bad days -- the likes of C.C. Sabathia, Aaron Cook, Jeff Suppan, John Lannan (the fact that John Lannan is starting on Opening Day tells you all you need to know about the Washington Nationals) and both reigning Cy Young Award winners, Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum.

And many Opening Day starters had very good days, especially Atlanta's Derek Lowe, but also Josh Beckett (Red Sox),Gil Meche (Royals), Joe Saunders (Angels), Hideki Kuroda (Dodgers) and Kevin Millwood (Rangers). But no one, arguably, had a better game than Felix Hernandez, when you take into consideration the fact that he twisted his ankle in the first inning. Lowe, who blanked the Phillies on two hits, was the only other pitcher to work eight innings. Seven others worked seven innings.

There's no saying how Felix's season will play out, of course. In each of the past two seasons, he's gotten off to spectacular starts (15 innings without giving up an earned run in his first two starts last year -- both Seattle losses, by the way; and 17 innings without giving up an earned run in his first two starts in 2007, including a one-hit masterpiece against Daisuke Matsuzaka and the Red Sox at Fenway Park). He finished with good seasons each time, but not quite the breakout season that fans are waiting for. Maybe this bodes well for such an occurence this year...or maybe not.

Just for the heck of it, I made a chart of all 30 pitchers who made the Opening Day start for their team, and how they did. They worked a cumulative 169 2/3 innings, gave up 178 hits, 98 runs, 95 earned runs and 56 walks while striking out 116 -- a 5.04 earned run average. Winning pitchers (11 of them) racked up a 2.22 ERA, losing pitchers (12 of them) had a 7.96 ERA, while those with no decison (seven of them) had a 5.35 ERA.

The Associated Press, which somehow seems to have gained a direct pipeline to major-league contracts over the years, has come out with its annual payroll analysis, and they peg the Mariners at $98,904,167 for 2009. That's down $19.1 million from last year, when AP had the Mariners at $117,993,982.

Interestingly, The Mariners' ranking only went down one spot, from ninth overall in 2008 to 10th this year. The top 10 last year was the Yankees ($209.1 million), Tigers ($138.7 million), Mets ($138.3 million), Red Sox ($133.4 million), White Sox ($121.2 million), Angels ($119.2 million), Cubs ($118.6 million), Dodgers ($118.5 million), Mariners ($117.9 million) and Braves ($102.4 million).

The top 10 this year are the Yankees ($201.4 million), Mets ($135.7 million), Cubs ($135.0 million), Red Sox ($122.6 million), Tigers ($115.0 million), Angels ($113.7 million), Phillies ($113.0 million), Astros ($102.9 million), Dodgers ($100.4 million) and Mariners ($98.9 million).

This news won't come as a shock, because we've been writing all winter that their payroll was going to fall into this neighborhood. According to the AP analysis, payrolls declined cumulatively by $47 million -- 1.7 percent, the first decline since 2004 and just the second since the 1994-95 strike. Sixteen of 30 teams cut payroll. Again, no shocker considering the recession and the notable drop that free agents seemed to be experiencing as the winter dragged on.

I think the upshot is that even with the decline, the Mariners still have a very healthy payroll -- more than enough to win with, if spent wisely. And too often, under the previous regime, it wasn't.

Twenty-two pitches. That's how many Brandon Morrow and Miguel Batista threw last night that could have resulted in a successful outcome that won the game for the Mariners.

Here''s CBS Sportline's play-by-play account of each batter after Morrow retired Joe Crede and Delmon Young for the first two outs of the ninth, with the Mariners holding a 5-3 lead. Each pitch from that point on could have ended the game:

Carlos Gomez: Ball, Ball, Ball, Strike looking, Strike swinging, Foul, Foul, Gomez walked
Jason Kubel hit for Jose Morales.
Jason Kubel: Ball, Ball, Ball, Kubel walked, Gomez to second.
Nick Punto: Ball, Brian Buscher hit for Nick Punto, Brendan Harris ran for Jason Kubel.
Brian Buscher: Strike looking, Ball, Ball, Foul, Foul, Buscher walked, Gomez to third, Harris to second.
Miguel Batista relieved Brandon Morrow.
Denard Span: Strike looking, Span reached on an infield single, Gomez scored, Harris to third, Buscher to second.
Alexi Casilla: Casilla singled to center, Harris and Buscher scored, Span to second

There's no great point to this, except to highlight what an extended nightmare it was, and how many opportunties they had for a happy ending.

A. Bartlett Giamatti -- the former commissioner of baseball, president of Yale, professor of comparative literature, and father of a truly great actor, Paul Giamatti, -- had it exactly right when he said that baseball is a game designed to break your heart.

Giamatti's actual quote had grander and more profound implications: "It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone."

But I'd say it applies perfectly to the ninth inning of last night's game -- If you're a Mariners' fan, that is.

The most exciting Opening Day I ever witnessed occured in 1986, the first one I covered as a real, live baseball writer (for the Bellevue Journal-American).

The Mariners, coming off an 88-loss season, played the Angels the Kingdome, Mike Moore on the mound. They trailed 4-2 heading into the bottom of the ninth, only to have Jim Presley tie it up with a two-run homer. Bedlam in the Kingdome, but panic in the press box, where I tried desperately to figure out how I was going to re-write my game story, which was focused on what looked to be a tough Mariners' loss, with deadline rapidly approaching. And then, when Presley won it in the 10th with a grand slam -- deadline had already passed, and the story needed to be filed immediately -- I believe I just started weeping. The moment was too big for me to cope with.

Those Mariners, at that instant, were on top of the world, and talking confidently of the new attitude pervading the clubhouse after so many disappointing years. Well, by the end of April, they were deeply imbedded in last place and getting league-wide recognition -- for being the free-swingingest team anyone had seen in a long time. That point was driven home when Roger Clemens struck out 20 Mariners on April 29. On May 8, manager Chuck Cottier was fired, and the M's went on to another dismal season, 67-95.

The point of that memory is not to douse the excitement of Monday night, which simply could not have gone any better for the Mariners. Well, maybe that's a little of the point. Capt. Party Pooper here remembers last year's 5-2 win over Texas on Opening Day and seems to recall the rest of the season didn't go so well.

Still, Mariner fans should savor the victory, and be filled with high hopes, because that's what this time of year is about.

I was particularly impressed with Felix Hernandez, who looks poised for the breakout year we all know he has within him. And speaking of poise, that's what impressed me the most. Whenever the Twins threatened, he remained completely in control of himself, and of the game. That's a tremendous sign of maturity, and bodes well.

My only concern, in fact, is with the right ankle Hernandez twisted in the first inning. I happened to be at Shea Stadium covering the June 23 game last year in which Felix hit a grand slam off Johan Santana, and then twisted his left ankle while covering home on a wild pitch. Carlos Beltran, the baserunner, slid hard into him, and manager Jim Riggleman wound up taking Felix out of the game. In the clubhouse afterwards, however, no one thought the injury was particularly serious.

"I'm going to pitch next time. For sure,'' Hernandez said.

Riggleman termed the sprain "mild,'' and added: "We hope we can get him back out there as soon as possible. (Trainer) Rick Griffin is pretty encouraged. He may miss a couple of days off his next start, but we're not thinking DL at all.''

As you probably remember, Felix did wind up on the DL, and didn't pitch again until July 11 -- 18 days later.

One big difference, of course, is that Hernandez stayed in the game this time and pitched seven more brilliant innings. But I'm a little alarmed by his post-game quotes about how much pain he was in throughout the game. I'll be very interested to see how he feels today. Let's hope he doesn't have any after-effects from the injury.

Finally, I must gloat a bit about my prediction in yesterday's live chat. I was asked to forecast the opener. At 11:59 a.m. (more than five hours before the first pitch), I responded:

"It won't be rained out! That's my prediction. How's this: I think Felix will pitch a gem (eight innings, five hits, two runs, both earned, two walks, eight strikeouts), Griffey will hit a homer, and the Mariners will win 3-2, with Morrow getting the save."

Hernandez's actual line was eighth innings, five hits, one run, earned, three walks and six strikeouts. Not too shabby. I nailed Griffey's homer, and Morrow was warming up for the save until the Mariners added two runs in the ninth.

Just call me Nostra-stone-as.

Just a reminder that I'll be conducting a live chat, which is infinitely better than a dead one, Monday from 11 a.m. to noon. I'm looking forward to answering your questions and getting a little Opening Day fever going.

See you then.

I promised quotes, and here they are. I've still got a story to write, so I'll make it quick. I apologize in advance for any typos.

DON WAKAMATSU

On Tuiasosopo making the team: "We're so happy for him. Obviously, to be able to reward a guy that worked so hard and really impressed us. We think it's the best fit for us immediately. We'll see how it goes for us, and obviously, with Ichiro and all that. It's nice to be able to reward a kid like that."

On whether Kelley and Jakubauskus were on his radar when camp opened: "We had great reports on Kelley, and with Jakubauskas, they said this guy will open your eyes. But not to that extent. To be able to go to Minnesota with at least three guys you didn't plan on making the team....you sit in those meetings, it's a good feeling in your heart to be able to reward those guys for what they've done, so I'm happy for them."

On whether the bullpen roles are defined: To a point. On Monday, if we have to go to the bullpen for a closer, we'll go to Morrow. We'll probably use several different guys to set up. Miguel probably, Lowe, Corcoran pitched well here, so he gives us more viable options. Jakubauskus we'll use probably in several different roles. That's going to be the hardest one, to keep him to where he gives us insurance long, but he also pitched well enough to where you'd like to use him.

On the catching: "Jamie Burke has been with the organization and is a tremendous asset to any club. But we also thought Rob came in and really deserved the opportunity after the spring he had. We set some parameters early in camp to what we were looking for in that spot, and he filled them all."

On their toughest decision: "There were a lot of them, but probably Mike Wilson. We like to reward guys that deserve it. I think if there were one more spot, Mike would be on it, without a doubt. Especially a guy we took off the roster, and then came back in and made some adjustments. He really palyed hard and did some tremendous things."

Summing up the roster: "We added the leadership we wanted. The rest, I think, is a combination of having some young players that are going to have some veteran players around them to set the example...From where we started and where we're at now and where we're headed, I think we all feel pretty good about it."

JACK ZDURIENCIK

On the final roster moves: "They worked so hard. The guys who are on the club came in with a purpose. We said we'd create competition, and the guys that have been selected are guys that have earned it. I don't take that for granted and I don't think they did either. Some of them had some stiff competition and put themselves in a position to make a statement. I'm proud of them.

On Tuiasosopo: "He had a heck of a camp. What more can you say. He came in and made a statement. It's a tough call with some of these guys, no doubt about it. He was a pretty excited guy. Don and I were together, just minutes ago, and told him that he was going north with us. Short and sweet -- 'Congratulations, do your thing, and get out of here.' He was tickled pink. What more can you say. He was sitting there and anticipating what was going to happen."

ROB JOHNSON

"It wasn't official before today, but he had pulled me into his office and let me know I had made the team (a few days ago)."

On his reaction: "Extremely excited. It's an honor. To play in the big leagues is not an opportunity a lot of people get. And to be in an organization where they give you an opportunity to play, to make that team is unbelievable.

On the difference from coming up in September: "I think coming up in September, it's more about getting your feet wet. Opening Day, you feel you're a part of the team. You have a whole season ahead of you to try to win ballgames, especially whenever I do get the opportunity to play. It's different than just being around the atmosphere and getting used to the big leagues."

On Jamie Burke not making the team: "Jamie and I are really close friends. We've had a lot of good talks the last couple of days. It's always difficult, but it's part of the game. He can still back up here. There's so many things that can happen -- trades, stuff like that. We'll see what happens."

MATT TUIASOSOPO

Describing the day: "It's actually been about almost 48 hours. He called me (Wakamatsu) the day before we left. I was getting a massage and couldn't answer it. I checked, and he's like "Call me back." He said, 'Pack, I don't know what's going to happen." So I packed everything. I have a couple of suitcases here. I didn't know until the last 10 minutes. I was nervous, like always. Got the goosebumps. Again."

On whether he thought he had a shot to make the team when Ichiro went on the DL: "I didn't. He's an outfielder, I figured they would add another outfielder. You never know in this game. I just kept my fingers crossed. Pedro Griffol and Wak said pack for everything, because you might not come back. I had everything ready.

Contrasting today with when he was recently sent down: 'It was inevitable. I knew it was going to happen. Like I said, I just wanted to make a good impression. I was very surprised when I got a phone call. I asked (Tacoma manager) Darren Brown if I was going to make the Vegas trip. He said no, 40-man guys are going. I was really shocked when I got the phone call from Pedro and Wak (Thursday night). About 8 o'clock. I was up all night packing. I had to move everything out of the house. It was pretty nerve-racking. Same thing as last September, the last couple days of the season I didn't know if I was going to go or not."

On his reaction: "I'm about to make a couple of phone calls. I told my Mom and Dad right after I got off the phone with Wak that night, there's a chance I might make the Opening Day roster. The first thing they said, you don't get excited. Let us get excited for you. I was pretty calm. I didn't talk to anyone else about it.

On how he was told he had made the team: Someone came and got me, said go talk to Don. I walked in there, and we waited for Jack. Wak actually told me before Jack came in. He whispered, you're going to Minnesota with us. But Jack's coming right now. He can tell you. I just sat there and had the biggest smile on my face. I'm probably not going to be there that long, who knows, but it's pretty cool to make it out of camp."

Read all about it here on the Mariners' blog.

(I'll have a game thread on Geoff Baker's Mariners' blog).

Today's a big day -- after the 12:10 p.m. game with the Rockies here in Vegas (where it's not nearly as cold and windy as last night, thankfully), the Mariners will set their 25-man roster, hop on a plane and go to Minnesota.

No word yet on who will make the squad -- the players themselves won't be told until after the game -- but it seems the only pending decisions are who will fill Ichiro's roster spot, and whether Roy Corcoran or Jesus Delgado gets the final bullpen spot. That's assuming that Brandon Morrow starts the year on the active roster as the closer, which is one of the questions that will be answered after the game. I'm figuring rookies Shawn Kelley and Chris Jakubauskas will make the team, and Rob Johnson will be the second catcher. But nothing's official, and cutdown day is often full of surprises. Just ask R.A. Dickey last year, when he was stunned he didn't make the team, or Charlton Jimerson, who was stunned when he did.

Corcoran really helped himself with two scoreless innings on Friday that lowered his spring ERA from 14.14. to 11.00.

"I think it's a situation where he put a lot of pressure on himself, especially in Arizona where the ball doesn't tend to sink,'' manager Don Wakamatsu said. "We kept saying, even though he was giving up runs and he didn't have great outings, that his stuff was getting better. Obviously, he was as sharp as I've seen him. It was a valuable two innings for him to build a little confidence going into the season."

Added Wakamatsu, "I think everyone, when they go down there and get beat around, start to lose a little confidence. Under the lights and this close to Opening Day, it's going to build some confidence."

As for Ichiro, the team has been in contact with him through text messages.

"I've read the ones he's sent,'' Wakamatsu said. "Everything is going good. He's increasing his workouts down there. If everything goes as planned, and he keeps progressing, he'll probably meet us in Oakland."

The Mariners open a three-game series in Oakland next Friday after four games in Minnesota. They then come home for a three-game series with the Angels, beginning April 14. Ichiro is eligible to be activated for the second game on April 15

"I think if everything goes well, we're looking at maybe having him do a simulated game down there (in Peoria, Ariz.), get on a plane and meet us in Oakland, be part of the team workout there,'' Wakamatsu said.

"When we talked originally, his strong desire was to be with the club, he made it evident. We kind of said, 'We think it will be a good idea to be with the club prior to Seattle.''

Asked if he was feeling some nerves on the verge of his managerial debut on Monday, Wakamatsu said, "Yeah. To me, when I sit in that dugout in Minnesota, I'll be able to look at the staff I've chosen, because we share everything together. They've done a great job this spring. After 6 1/2 weeks, to be able to say, 'Here we are, boys. Let's get it started.'

"I feel real strong about the staff. I feel real strong about the work we've done in spring, on and off the field. I'll take my chances."

Mitch Storey, the Mariners' team doctor, said that Ichiro was having stomach problems prior to the World Baseball Classic.

"According to ichiro, the symptoms probably started even right before the World Baseball Classic,'' Storey said. "So he had been fighting these symptoms for three or four weeks. He'd feel good one day and bad the next.

"I don't think he knew something was really wrong until he got here to spring training and started feeling tired and light-headed. He had an upset stomach several times during the WBC, but he took some stomach medicine and felt better. He didn't put it all together; he was just treating symptoms and feeling better. It wasn't until he got wiped out in spring training and got so fatigued the issue came to a head.''

Storey said that ulcers can be caused by a variety of factors.

"It can be caused by certain bacteria, which you can be tested for,'' he said. "It can be caused by stress, too much acid production. Taking medications like anti-inflammatories can pre-dispose people to it.

"The only treatment, really, is to try to eliminate some of the offending problems that are causing it. There are certain medications."

Though there apparently is a school of thought that stress isn't a cause of ulcers, Storey said, "Stress causes over-acid production, and excess acid production leads to ulcer, given the right environment."

In fact, Storey believes the stress of the WBC may well have been a major factor with Ichiro.

"Yeah, I would suspect that was one of the primary causes, all that stress,'' he said. "That's partly what started the whole process, I'd suspect.''

The treatment, he said, is basically the same regardless of the cause -- medication to decrease acid production, "and they usually heal over a period of three to four weeks.''

Storey expects Ichiro to be ready to play when he is eligible to come off the DL on April 15.

"I'm anticipating he will,'' he said.

Ichiro's routine in the upcoming days is "a real graduated program with aerobic activity, some throwing and some batting. We're trying to let him rest up, because he's been fatigued. We don't want to push him. We're hoping before he leaves Arizona he might play three or four innings, just to see how he feels. It's going to depend on how the next several days go."

Initially, Dr. Storey said, "We thought he was just run down and had the flu or something like that. Then, he got a lot weaker, and some further investigating and testing showed he had this ulcer. That led to the fatigue."

Doctors still don't know what caused Ichiro's ulcer. They used a fiber optic camera in through his stomach to diagnose the ulcer, "and at the same time took brushings and biopsies to culture for bacteria. The results are pending. By Monday, we should have an answer. If he does have the bacteria, a cocktail of antibiotics should clear up the bacteria in about two weeks."

Lineups

Colorado

Dexter Fowler CF
Ryan Spilborghs LF
Todd Helton 1B
Garrett Atkins 3B
Brad Hawpe RF
Troy Tulowitzki SS
Chris Iannetta C
Jeff Baker DH
Clint Barmes 2B
Franklin Morales P

Mariners

Endy Chavez LF
Franklin Gutierrez CF
Adrian Beltre 3B
Russell Branyan 1B
Mike Sweeney DH
Rob Johnson C
Wladimir Balentien RF
Ronny Cedeno 2B
Chris Woodward SS
Jarrod Washburn P

(Sorry, I have to tie all this Ichiro stuff together into one big story for tomorrow's paper, so I don't think I'll be able to do a game thread tonight. But I'll see how I'm progressing).

We just had our pre-game session with Don Wakamatsu, and he was mostly non-commital about who will fill in for Ichiro in right field and at leadoff, and who will fill his roster spot.

The Mariners are going to wait until after tomorrow's game to make the announcement of all the final decisions that have to be made. For one thing, the players themselves don't know yet, in many cases, and for another, they are being cautious in case a last-minute injury changes their plans. They don't want a guy to know he was going to be sent down if they suddenly need him on the roster. That makes sense -- every team handles it this way.

Perhaps the most interesting response came when I asked Wakamatsu if he expected Ken Griffey Jr. to be in the lineup on Monday on the artificial turf of the Metrodome, with a lefty, Francisco Liriano, on the mound.

"Yes, I do. Yes,'' he replied. "He could play right. We discussed that inside (the clubhouse) just a little while ago. There might be a possibility of him playing right, although tomorrow (Saturday) he is playing in left. He is open to doing anything we want, and he said that from day one."

Asked the advantage of having Griffey in right in Minnesota, he said: "The smaller baggy in right, and the fact he played (right field) the last two years."

Wakamatsu also said that Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez are both options to hit leadoff.

More from Wakamatsu:

On talking to Ichiro about going on the DL: "We ended up talking to him down in my office. It was an emotional visit with him. I told him straight out that I have watched him for six years from the other dugout, and to watch him out by himself on a Sunday day game, I have never questioned how tough he is, and his dedication to the game and to the fans.

"To sit there and say this if the best thing for him was awfully emotional for him and me. He talked about how much he wanted to be with the team in Minnesota. It was a tough, tough decision, but we feel it's the best decision. We want to make sure he is healthy and will be with us all year. We're just glad we caught this when we did. The doctors did a good job."

On Ichiro's reaction: "This is a warrior and someone I am very glad to have on this club. The players on this club obviously know what he was willing to risk. It wasn't something we wanted. It was a tough conversation to tell a man of his stature that he wasn't going to be with the team."

I finally got hold of Jack Zduriencik on his cell phone. I missed him the first time around, and the team recently landed in Vegas, apparently with the same bumpy landing I had. The wind is really howling right now at Cashman Field.

He confirmed that doctors believe Ichiro will be ready to come back on April 15, and said that they haven't decided yet how they will fill his roster spot. However, Zduriencik said he doesn't expect to go outside the organization. For now, Ichiro will remain in Peoria, where he can be monitored by team personnel. They really want him to take it easy.

Here are some highlights from the interview:

"It happened so quickly. He mentioned on the day we played the Brewers (Monday) he wasn't feeling real well. We even thought about scratching him that day, but he had two at-bats and came out of the game. He told Don he was a little weak and dizzy. So we got him checked, and found out what he had.

"I think we're fortunate in the fact we caught it, and he's going to miss just eight games. We're certainly going to miss him. We wish we had him. But if it happened another time, or it was prolonged, who knows how long he'd miss. This is at the beginning, so we can make the DL retroactive (to March 31). If there's any silver lining, it's that he's not going to be gone a lengthy time. That's what it seems, anyway.

"I think he'll be back on the 15th. He's feeling better now. He wants to play so bad. He didn't want to go through this (the DL). He wanted to fight through. But we have to make these decisions based on what's best for the organization -- and best for him. Quite frankly, we need to get him healthy so the club will be at full strength as we move forward.

"The doctor recommended he needed rest and medication. The best thing to do is slow him down. They think he'll come back (to strength) pretty quickly. The fact we nipped it in the bud is a good thing. Sure, we'll miss him. He wants to play. We'll be happy to have him back as soon as he's ready. We're confident that will be the second game of the homestand (April 15 against the Angels).

"Ichiro's a tough guy to slow down. He wants to do his thing right now. The doctor told him he can do a little bit. Eventually, his strength will come back, but he doesn't need to exert himself. There's people there (in Peoria) that can monitor him. His desire is to play and help the team and be in the lineup. We have to pull back the reins.

"He'll stay in Peoria for awhile. We'll have to see how the week goes. He'll be in contact with our medical staff.

"We'll make that decision (on filling his roster spot) probably Saturday after the ballgame. Don will look at some things this weekend. We talked a little already, but there's not a sense of urgency. We don't need to finalize our roster until Sunday, and we have so many extra players with us. It works on our behalf.

"I don't think we'll go outside the organization. It will be within. He's going to be out such a short period of time. Unless something extraordinary happens, I don't think we will (go outside). We have a lot of possibilities. We can take someone from the 40-man roster, or put someone on the 40-man. We have spots available. At the end of the day, we'll see what works best for us.

(NOTE: I WILL TRY TO TALK TO WAKAMATSU AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, BUT HE HASN'T ARRIVED AT THE BALLPARK YET).

(KIRO's Shannon Drayer, who is traveling with the team, reports that Jack Zduriencik told her Ichiro has been cleared to work out today at the M's complex in Peoria. This is a good sign).

UPDATE: The Mariners just officially announced that Rule 5 draftee Reegie Corona has been returned to the Yankees. That leaves the 40-man roster at 36, enabling them to add a non-roster outfielder to replace Ichiro, as well as adding Mike Sweeney, Chris Jakubauskas and Shawn Kelley. The non-roster candidates are Mike Wilson, Chris Burke, Mike Morse and Prentice Redman. Also remember that everyone is cutting down their teams in these final days, so some released or waived players might catch their eye.

Here's the story I pounded out for the internet on Ichiro going on the DL.

A couple of things:

This press release just arrived from the Mariners. I want to post it right away to get the word out. This is obviously a blow to the team. I'll try to get a handle on the ramifications as quickly as I can.

MARINERS OUTFIELDER ICHIRO SUZUKI TO BE PLACED ON 15-DAY DL All-Star Outfielder Will Miss at Least Eight Games.

PEORIA, Ariz. -- Seattle Mariners Executive Vice President & General Manager of Baseball Operations Jack Zduriencik announced today that All-Star outfielder Ichiro Suzuki will be placed on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to March 31, and will miss the first week of the regular season.

Ichiro had been suffering severe fatigue, causing him to miss the Mariners last three Cactus League games (March 30-April 1). He was examined by doctors in Arizona who determined that he had suffered a bleeding ulcer. The ulcer is not bleeding now, but in the interim, doctors have ordered restricted activity.

"It was a very difficult decision to place Ichiro on the disabled list," Zduriencik said, "especially since we know what a fierce competitor he is, and how important it is to him to help the team. However, we determined it was in both his best interest, and the best interest of the club, to place him on the DL at this time."

Ichiro will be eligible to return to Major League games on Wednesday, April 15.

Suzuki appeared in four games with the Mariners in Spring Training, hitting .417 (5-for-12). He reported to camp on Thursday, March 26, after leading Team Japan to its second consecutive World Baseball Classic championship.

Ichiro has played in 197 consecutive games (dating back to Aug. 26, 2007), the 4th-longest active Iron Man streak in the Majors. He has played in 807 of Mariners last 810 games over the last five seasons, and since coming to Seattle in 2001, has played in 1,280 of 1,296 possible games (missed only 16 games in 8 years).

The Mariners just sent out the following press release:

MEDICAL UPDATE ON MARINERS OUTFIELDER ICHIRO SUZUKI

PEORIA, Ariz. -- Seattle Mariners Executive Vice President & General Manager of Baseball Operations Jack Zduriencik tonight gave the following update on Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki.

Ichiro has missed the past three Cactus League games (March 31-April 2).

Ichiro was examined today by doctors, including Mariners team physician Dr. Mitch Storey.

Results from the exam will be available tomorrow, Friday, April 3.

A further update will be released at that time.

*****
So we'll await the update Friday to find out what's going on. Let hope it's nothing serious.

I just arrived in Vegas after a harrowing flight from Seattle (the bumpiest approach I can remember in a long, long time). But I made it, and I'm looking forward to watching the team Friday night at Cashman Field while Geoff gets a little R & R before Opening Day.

Speaking of Opening Day, I'll be conducting a live chat on Monday from 11 a.m. to 12 noon, Pacific time (sorry, no video. That's Baker's realm). I'll try to answer as many questions as I can, so lay some good ones on me. I'll post another reminder as the day approaches, but I just wanted to get word out there.

A news flash out of Minnesota camp today that has Mariner reverberations: Scott Baker, who would have been the Twins' Opening Day starter on Monday against Felix Hernandez, was placed on the disabled list with a stiff shoulder. That makes lefty Francisco Liriano, who was a sensation in 2006 (12-3, 2.16 ERA, 144 strikeouts in 121 innings) before major elbow surgery wiped out his entire 2007 season, the Opening Day starter against Seattle.

The other upshot is that knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, cut loose by the Mariners after last season, will likely take the fifth spot in the Twins' rotation during Baker's absence. The rest of Minnesota's starters are righties Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey, and lefty Glen Perkins.

Good for Dickey, one of most personable guys you'll ever meet.

The Twins have other health issues. First baseman Justin Morneau tweaked his back with a swing during batting practice Tuesday, and it's been stiff for the past two days. But he told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, "It's nothing I'm too concerned about. I just don't want it to be something that nags on when the season starts. ... If this was Game No. 1 or Game No. 100, I'm sure I'd be out there."

Joe Mauer, their brilliant catcher, starts the year on the DL with a lower back issue. Infielder Brian Buscher went to the hospital with chest soreness earlier this week but was diagnosed with tenderness in his chest tissue, unrelated to his heart, which was a relief. And outfielder Delmon Young missed a couple of games with a sore shoulder but should be ready for the Mariners.

"Our health is not good right now," Manager Ron Gardenhire said to the Star-Tribune. "Players are beat up a little bit. Hopefully we'll start the season healthy."

Is it possible to pick a team to finish last and be optimistic about them at the same time?

That's where I stand with the Mariners. Earlier today, Geoff gave a compelling argument for why he's picking them to finish third, ahead of the Rangers. I, too had to submit my picks to run in our Mariners' extravaganza for Sunday that we're all working on madly.

I picked the Mariners' to finish fourth, behind the Angels, A's and Rangers, in that order. But I think it's going to be a vastly improved, heading-in-the-right direction, the-future-is-bright fourth, if that's possible. And for a team that lost 101 games last year and finished 39 games out of first -- and 14 1/2 games out of third!!! -- I think it is.

For one thing, the AL West figures to be a lot tighter this year, so a last-place finish doesn't have to land the Mariners in another time zone again. The warning signs for the Angels (who won the division by a ridiculous 21 games over Texas in '08) are rampant, including a report in today's Los Angeles Times that Joe Saunders, their Opening Day starter, may be experiencing "dead arm." That's on top of John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar all opening the season on the disabled list. However, I still think the Angels have enough pitching depth to overcome those injuries, and they remain the most complete team in the division.

Oakland is filled with exciting young talent, plus newcomers Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi and Orlando Cabrera. They'll clearly be better, but there will be inevitable growing pains with a rotation that figures to average 23 years of age now that ace Justin Duchscherer has undergone elbow surgery (Dallas Braden, Dana Eveland, Sean Gallagher or Josh Outman, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson).

Texas, as usual, needs to improve its pitching after compiling a MLB-worst 5.37 ERA last year (to go with an MLB-high 901 runs scored). The Rangers will always rack up runs, especially in their park, and even without Milton Bradley. The eternal question: Can they prevent them? The difference this year is that the Rangers have quietly built up one of the best arrays of minor-league talent -- if not THE best -- in the game. And that includes some first-rate arms that could be ready to break in by mid-season (Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland) -- not to mention rookie shortstop Elvis Andrus, who has dazzled with his range. The Rangers are a team on the upswing, though it might be a slow-developing upswing.

The Mariners, too, are on the upswing; how can they not be after thudding to rock bottom last year. I see them improving by about 10 games -- but that still gets them to just 71 wins (or, to put it another way, 91 losses). If things really click, perhaps they'll move up by 15, which could pull them into third place, as Geoff forecasts.

While Geoff details the improvement in clubhouse mood -- and I witnessed it myself -- I don't see that as overly influential in their record. I think, for the most part, their clubhouse was dysfunctional last year because they sucked, not the other way around. It should be a happier place this year with Ken Griffey and Mike Sweeney around, but that won't solve the deficiencies I still see. The starting pitching, without Brandon Morrow, is hardly overwhelming, though the outlook is much brighter if Felix finally has his breakout year, and Erik Bedard stays healthy enough to put up the sort of dominant season the Mariners expected last year. Based on what I've been seeing in spring, the bullpen looks worrisome to me. Even with Morrow, who looks doubtful to me for the start of the season. And I'm still not convinced this lineup has enough pop to overcome the pitching weaknesses, even with a healthy Griffey and a revived Branyan (and I'll reserve some skepticism on both fronts).

Yes, the outfield defense should rock (provided it's Endy Chavez and not Griffey out in left the bulk of the time). Yes, the manager, and the management team, seem to have their stuff together. Yes, there are some exciting young players on the horizon. Yes, the future looks infinitely brighter than it did last October.

But I'm still picking them last. Then again, I picked them first last year, so what do I know?

Am I the only one who thinks of this guy every single time they hear the commercial for Scott's Miracle-Gro that finishes with the tag line, "Less moss, more grass"?