I'm sure all of you are setting your alarms for 1:30 a.m. (Pacific Time) Thursday morning to watch Japan against China at the Tokyo Dome in the World Baseball Classic kickoff on ESPN 2. The United States, managed by Davey Johnson (reunited with Mel Stottlemyre, Davey's pitching coach on the great Mets' teams of the 1980s, including the 1986 World Series team; Stottlemyre will be the U.S. bullpen coach) opens up Saturday against Canada. Team Canada, you might recall, had a huge upset victory over U.S. in the inaugural WBC in 2006.

Sure, it's flawed, and yes, ther's an awful lot of top-notch talent that's not playing. But it's still going to be compelling, and I see at least six teams that have a strong chance to win: Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Japan, Cuba, Puerto Rico and the United States. In the darkhorse category, I'd put Mexico, South Korea and Canada. And in the no-chance department, China, Chinese Taipei, South Africa, Australia, Panama, Italy and Netherlands.

Let's look at the four Pools of four teams each, in which two nations will emerge from each:

Pool A: China, Japan, Chinese Taipei, Korea.

You've got to think that Japan will breeze out of this bracket, although South Korea took the gold medal in the 2008 Olympics. The Koreans are facing a big loss with news that Cleveland Indians outfielder (and former Mariner) Shin-Soo Choo might have to pull out of the WBC because of a sore left arm. The Koreans are already without their big slugger from 2006 (when they surprisingly made it to the WBC semifinals before losing to Japan), Seung Yeop Lee, who is sitting the WBC to prepare for his season in the Japanese League with the Yomiuri Giants. And Byun-Hyun Kim isn't on the team because -- true story -- he lost his passport (it wasn't Chan Ho Park that lost his passport, as I posted originally. Thanks to reader Kevin Lim for pointing out the mistake. Park is concentrating on making the Phillies' staff). As for the Japanese, you know all about Ichiro, Kenji Johjima and Daisuke Matsuzaka -- the MVP of Japan's WBC championship in 2006 -- but the pitcher everyone wants to see is Yu Darvish, who will likely be the next great player to head to the major leagues.

As for China and Chinese Taipei, they are still fledglings when it comes to baseball -- and Chinese Taipei will be without their one star, Chien-Ming Wang, who is coming back from a major foot injury and wasn't cleared by the Yankees to play.

Prediction: Japan and South Korea advance.

Pool B: Cuba, South Africa, Australia, Mexico.

It's hard to go against Cuba when it comes to international baseball, though one of their top pitchers, Yadel Marti, has reportedly been kicked off the team over suspicions he tried to defect to the United States. They still have outfielder Yoandy Garlobo, who hit .480 in 2006. And I'll bet they have a lot of other good players. Mexico has a sprinkling of familiar major-leaguers or former major-leaguers, including Jorge Campillo, Elmer Dessens, Rodrigo Lopez, Oliver Perez, Dennys Reyes, Ricardo Rincon, Joakim Soria, Rod Barajas, Jorge Cantu, Erubiel Durazo, Adrian Gonzalez, Karim Garcia, and the Hairston brothers, Jerry and Scott (their mom is Mexican). Australia should be more competitive than it was in 2006, when it was outscored 18-4 in losing all three games in played in the first round. The Aussies hit .113 and had a 6.85 team ERA. At least it will be fun watching ex-Mariners Travis Blackley and Chris Snelling. As for the South Africans, they appeared to have as much fun as anyone in 2006 -- they were visibly in awe of Ken Griffey Jr. in an exhibition game I watched -- but they were, and will be again, overmatched.

Prediction: Cuba and Mexico advance.