Advertising

The Seattle Times Company

NWjobs | NWautos | NWhomes | NWsource | Free Classifieds | seattletimes.com

The Seattle Times

Seahawks


Our network sites seattletimes.com | Advanced

Seahawks Blog

Danny O'Neil covers the Seahawks for The Seattle Times.

E-mail Danny| Seahawks forum| RSS feeds Subscribe | Blog Home

December 20, 2008 5:16 PM

Inside the numbers -- Doug Farrar breaks down

Posted by Danny O'Neil

BY DOUG FARRAR

Styles make fights, or so they say in the boxing trade. Joe Frazier would see your razzle-dazzle, Mr. Ali, and stand flat-footed, waiting for you in the middle of the ring with a fist of cement. Ali knew when to ride the rope and let a physically dominant opponent like George Foreman swing himself into exhaustion and vulnerability. Styles also make sports. In baseball, Randy Johnson's 98-mph heater versus Mark McGwire's Kingdome triple-decker is a moment I'll never forget. In football, aficionados love the marquee matchups -- that rush end with the blur of a first step versus the left tackle with the FBI-registered handpunch. Can Nnamdi Asomugha cover Randy Moss? Will Michael Turner shake Barrett Ruud?

I've been writing a weekly game-tape (or DVD and DVR) analysis column called Cover-3 for Football Outsiders all season, and one of the most interesting matchups I've covered was the Week 13 game between the Colts and Browns. Indianapolis won a tight 10-6 game, but I was focused on the middle of the action when the Colts had the ball. Center Jeff Saturday was out with a strained calf, which affected the offense for two reasons. First, Saturday is as smart and experienced as any lineman in the NFL when it comes to line calls, that subtle science of reading defenses and calling protections. Second, the Browns had nose tackle Shaun Rogers, a one-man wrecking crew, in the center of their 3-4 defense. Replacing Saturday was rookie Jamey Richard, a seventh-round pick out of Buffalo. Richard had some draft experts calling a sleeper, but the expectation was that Rogers would take the kid to school (and possibly put him to sleep!)

Didn't happen. Sure, Rogers got through on his share of plays (especially at the goal line), but Richard held the point impressively by using his quickness after the snap to counter Rogers' ridiculous first-three-steps speed. Richard also displayed great power in standing Rogers up at times. He was vulnerable to Rogers' ability to peel off either side of center in a straight three-man front, but every center Rogers has faced this year has fallen victim to this. A selection of chips and double-teams by Indy's guards helped a great deal.

The point of this ad hoc scouting report? Well, the Seahawks are going up against the New York Jets this week, and not one of Seattle's starting offensive linemen were starting in Week 1. Replacing Walter Jones and Sean Locklear at left tackle is Kyle Williams, a second-year undrafted free agent from USC. Why an untried player at the line's most important position? The team feels that switching around the rest of the line to put anyone else there will upset the continuity, which strikes me as odd for two reasons: First, Seattle's line HAS no continuity; it's basically a M*A*S*H* episode at this point. Second, this might wind up backfiring like Green Bay's "Hey, let's put Charles Woodson at safety and have Tramon Williams man up on #2 receivers" strategy did. Sometimes, you put your best guys where your best guys need to be.

The Jets counter with a line fortified by Kris Jenkins, who, like Rogers, is one of several dominant AFC nose tackles. Jenkins has been slowed by a hip injury, and the Jets gave up 187 rushing yards against the Bills last week -- a very uncharacteristic total for a defense that Jenkins has transformed into a run-stopping wall. Could Jenkins' limited ability give center Steve Vallos a shot at playing Jamey Richard this Sunday?


TeamTotal DVOARankLast weekOffense DVOARankDefense DVOARankSpecial teamsRank
Seahawks-25.0%2727-10.3%2617.0%292.3%10
Jets-4.5%17184.9%184.3%153.9%5

The Jets have had issues with the style of passing game they want to run with Brett Favre -- in a way, it's been Favre Through the Ages, going from the downfield escapades of #4's halcyon youth under Mr. Holmgren's tutelage to the recent chuck-and-duck exploits of Green Bay's more recent pseudo-spread offense. The Jets run plays from spread formations even more than the Packers do, and you'd think there'd be efficiency in short passes, but Favre has thrown one touchdown and four interceptions in his last three games against subpar pass defenses. That would be encouraging news for the Seahawks if they HAD a pass defense.


Jets offense vs. Seahawks defense

TeamOffense DVOARankLast weekPass offenseRankRush offenseRank
Jets4.9%181811.1%152.1%13
TeamDefense DVOARankLast weekPass defenseRankRush defenseRank
Seahawks17.0%292633.2%29-2.3%16

 

How does your pass defense DVOA drop three places in one week despite a win? Start by beating the Rams, then allow Marc Bulger to have a higher DYAR than Drew Brees last week. You don't get rewarded by beating tomato cans at the last minute, guys.

The Jets have quite a few weapons at their disposal. The Favre-Holmgren “reunion” isn't the only story here – there's also running back Thomas Jones, brother of Julius. Thomas currently ranks fourth in the NFL and first in the AFC in DYAR among running backs. Brother Julius ranks 35th in the league, but that's as much about playing time and the line in front of him. The Jets have fortified both sides of their lines through the draft and free agency over the last few seasons, and that's what has them in the postseason race. The Seahawks face a similar focus before a return to prominence is possible. New York's real multi-purpose threat is running back Leon Washington, who can make plays as a change of pace back and in the return game. He was a lot to do with that special teams ranking up top.

 vs. #1 receivervs. No. 2 receivervs. other WRvs. TE
TeamDVOARankDVOARankDVOARankDVOARank
Seahawks38.1%3118.9%24-4.3%1925.3%18

In Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery, the Jets have two receivers with similar production who get there in different ways. Coles is the target in short-to-medium range, while Cotchery can stretch the field. Tight ends Dustin Keller and Chris Baker could have big days, weather permitting. Favre found openings over the middle against the Buffalo defense last Sunday, and the Seahawks will have to avoid the temptation to sell out to the pass when the Jets go wide.


Seahawks offense vs. Jets defense

TeamOffense DVOARankLast weekPass offenseRankRush offenseRank
Seahawks-10.3%2627-14.9%25-5.6%2
TeamDefense DVOARankLast weekPass defenseRankRush defenseRank
Jets4.3%151612.9%18-7.7%7

 

We've talked about Vallos versus Jenkins, which can be mitigated to a point by chips and blocks from Floyd Womack and Mansfield Wrotto. Problem is, what happens in the right side, with Wrotto and Ray Willis, when left end Shaun Ellis and “endbacker” Calvin Pace load up on that side. One way or another, Wrotto could be the most important lineman in this game.

 vs. #1 receivervs. No. 2 receivervs. other WRvs. TE
TeamDVOARankDVOARankDVOARankDVOARank
Jets1.3%173.5%13-6.8%1827.1%30

Darelle Revis is the Jets' Marcus Trufant, the A-guy who quarterbacks avoid in favor of easier targets. Rookie Dwight Lowery, an up-and-comer from San Jose State, impressed me in Week 1 with his coverage against the Dolphins. Safety Kerry Rhodes has been a Football Outsiders favorite for a while. The favorable matchup here, of course, is tight end John Carlson, who has been one of the few bright spots in a season that's just about done.

How will the game go?

The Jets are in a threw-way race with the Pats and Dolphins for the AFC East. They need this game because they go home to face Miami in next Sunday's season finale. The Seahawks travel to Arizona next week, where Mike Holmgren will ride off into the desert sunset. Both teams have high motivation here, but the Jets have too much talent at the skill positions, and too much strength on the lines, to allow this to be competitive. The Seahawks might win one for the Walrus against the Cardinals to wrap it all up, but they'd have to pull out more stops than they actually have to beat the Jets.

Digg Digg | Newsvine Newsvine

Comments
So much for all your numerical analysis, Mr. Farrar. Looks like the Seahawks were the team with more talent last Sunday -- or at least more heart....  Posted on December 23, 2008 at 9:10 AM by SpacemanBuckethead. Jump to comment

Advertising

Marketplace

Advertising

 
Most read
Most commented
Most e-mailed
 
 

Advertising

Categories
Calendar

May

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
          1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31            
Browse the archives

May 2009

April 2009

March 2009

February 2009

January 2009

December 2008