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Danny O'Neil covers the Seahawks for The Seattle Times.

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November 27, 2008 1:27 PM

Inside the numbers by Doug Farrar -- Seahawks at Cowboys

Posted by Danny O'Neil

By Doug Farrar

The good news: Last Sunday, a quarterback named Matt who spent his NCAA days at Boston College connected with a smallish ex-Louisville receiver wearing jersey number 83 for four catches and 92 yards. The receiver also scored on a run and a punt return, and proved that he can be the kind of difference-maker his team needs in a young, developing offense.

The bad news: The quarterback we're talking about is Matt Ryan; the receiver Harry Douglas. They both play for the Atlanta Falcons, Tim Ruskell's old team. On Tim Ruskell's new team, Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch are still struggling to hook up with any consistency, and Seattle's offense is dying around them.

Since returning from his injuries in tome for the Week 11 loss to the Cardinals, Hasselbeck has ranked 29th and 27th in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, which gives the value of a quarterback's performance above replacement level). For the season, he ranks 42nd – the second-worst total for any quarterback throwing more than 72 passes this season. Only the immortal J.T. O'Sullivan is worse. Talk is circulating on the interwebs that Hasselbeck should restructure or be cut, and the frustration he showed when he threw that game-ending pick against the Redskins is a picture that defines this season.

The pragmatist on one side says that Hasselbeck is 33 years old, the pointman on a declining offense, and that things should be better. Injuries have dulled his effectiveness over time, and it's time to start thinking about the replacement.

The pragmatist on the other side (the one who won this internal argument) argues that Hasselbeck, much like the recent Donovan McNabb, has been “gifted” with a cadre of witness-protection receivers by a front office who finds the art and science of assessing receiver talent exceedingly difficult. The destruction of the offensive line has limited Hasselbeck's options as far as play action and play selection; last year, the running game was so ineffective, he had to air it out just to make the playoffs.

And who will replace him in the long term? Charlie Frye? Seneca Wallace? The free agent du jour? There's one guy in the building who actually has a proven record of quarterback evaluation, and he's leaving at the end of the season. Given Tim Ruskell's tradition of drafting size-impaired players with exceedingly high college ceilings that tend to drop in the pros, would the Seahawks hand the keys to the franchise over to a guy like Chase Daniel and hope for the best?

The logical answer from this corner seems to be: Keep Hasselbeck on ice until next season, get a replacement in line – and for whoever's taking the snaps in the future, put a serious pre-injury receiver roster together.

Dallas offense vs. Seahawks defense

There have been three distinct Dallas offense this season, There was the one that was rolling along until Tony Romo's pinkie injury took him out of action from Week 7 through Week 10. The Brad Johnson Replacement Offense was about as bad as any offense you will ever see; Dallas put up Offensive DVOA totals of -114.2%, 1.8%, and -66.0% when Romo was out. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, the “Romo's Back!” offense is the one they'll be facing; this is the same one that torched high-priced San Francisco cornerback Nate Clements as T.O. had a career day.

Seattle's pass defense was actually improved over the last few weeks. The Seahawks ranked 30th in Pass Defense DVOA from week 1-9, they're 15th since. Marcus Trufant has been playing better and Josh Wilson has been a pleasant surprise, but this will be yet another test of the wisdom of that small defender theory. Owens is an especially difficult matchup for this team. He's better than he used to be at unlocking press coverage, and he can still get downfield with scary speed for a guy who isn't at all afraid to be physical before and after the catch.

The Cowboys' rushing offense has dropped from sixth to 14th in DVOA from the first half of the season to now, but even this more favorable matchup for Seattle has its pitfalls. The Seahawks' quick, undersized front seven doesn't tend to do exceedingly well against behemoth offensive lines, and they'll be facing a bunch of dump trucks this week.

Seattle offense vs. Dallas defense

The Dallas defense has experienced its own rebirth of late – the Cowboys were particularly on point against San Francisco last Sunday. The DeMarcus Ware-Walter Jones matchup is always a good one, but the real game-clincher will be what the undermanned middle of Seattle's offensive line does against nose tackle Jay Ratliff, an underrated force. (Actually, that may be redundant. Is there an overrated nose tackle?) The Dallas secondary is vulnerable at the best of times, but there also appeared to be a bit of home cooking when it came to non-calls against their cornerbacks. Be prepared for some frustration in that department, Seahawks fans. The officiating train keeps rolling on, veering off the tracks as it may be.

How will the game go?

Let's face it – this is a “What have you done for me lately?” world. Hasselbeck is no longer Matty Ice; that's now the kid down in Atlanta. He's third down the list of Starting Matts behind Cassel, based on two straight 400-plus-yard performances by New England's replacement quarterback (who we'll be talking about next week). Some believe that Cassel should be the newest Seattle Matt, which means that some have forgotten what happens when you blow AIG bailout money on a piece of the New England offense without the rest of the New England offense to go with it. This game will be on Hasselbeck's shoulders. He's facing a defense primed to prove that Julius Jones was best off elsewhere, and a secondary with enough holes to exploit.

The simple fact is that the Cowboys are playing as well now as they have all season. They know they have to fight the Redskins tooth and nail down the stretch for the honor of second to the G-Men in the NFC East. They also know that the Redskins padded their win total against this Seahawks team just a few days ago, and they know what an 8-4 mark would do for them with a 10-day rest to get ready for a December 7 blow-up against the Steelers.

This is a team with amazing talent and just enough recent humility to make them exceedingly dangerous. All the Seahawks have to counter with is humility, and the prospect of “spoilerism” drawing the curtain on Mike Holmgren's final season. The Seahawks would have been much better off facing a Dallas team on one streak or another for several weeks. Instead, they'll be dealing with a team that stared into the abyss, halfway fell in, and righted itself. There's something to prove there. Bad news for the Seahawks.

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Comments
Too easy. Having moved out of the Seattle area some months ago, I have only had a few chances to see the end of Mike Holmgrens era. Sad ending to...  Posted on November 30, 2008 at 4:58 PM by needsometenasity. Jump to comment

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