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Danny O'Neil covers the Seahawks for The Seattle Times.

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November 7, 2008 8:54 AM

Inside the numbers with Doug Farrar -- Seahawks at Dolphins

Posted by Danny O'Neil

Here comes Doug Farrar, master of the calculator, wizard of the abacus. Wait. I don't know if he can use an abacus. Actually, I don't know anyone who can use an abacus. But Doug can work his magic with numbers when it comes to getting inside each week's Seahawks game.

Doug is one of The Football Outsiders, the sharp-minded folks who put together the Football Prospectus, essential reading for anyone who wants to look inside the stats that get recited on a weekly basis.

You can click here for a biography and a nifty little drawing of Doug on the staff page at Football Outsiders. Again, a tip of the cap to Doug -- to borrow a phrase from the baseball clubhouse:

Inside the numbers

By Doug Farrar

Miami's Wildcat formation is by far the most imitated, misrepresented and mislabeled play series in the NFL this year. It's basically a derivation of the old single-wing, yet many of the pro teams that run it couldn't do so more inefficiently if they tried. Defenses know without question when it's coming, but are seemingly powerless to stop it with any consistency if it's done correctly. It rewards disciplined defenses with overall speed (especially among the linebackers) who don't bite in a particular direction at first movement, and it pretty much tears any other kind of defense to bits.

It's called the Wildcat, and the Seahawks are traveling to Miami to challenge its most skilled practitioners. When all is said and done, they're going to wish they hadn't.

Cat-scratch fever

What is the Wildcat? In its current NFL form, let's start with what it is not. It is not the direct snaps to halfback Jerious Norwood that the Falcons like, nor is it the series of “Flash” plays that the Browns used so successfully against the Giants earlier this year. It's not just a lateral and a halfback option, nor is it the kind of zone-read option you may have seen Darren McFadden pull off a time or two in Oakland. However, the Wildcat does have its roots in McFadden's excellence -- we just have to step in the Wayback Machine and watch the 2007 Arkansas Razorbacks.

Current Miami quarterbacks coach David Lee spent 2007 as the Razorbacks' offensive coordinator after three years in the Cowboys organization, which is where he first met current Dolphins capo Bill Parcells and street boss Tony Sparano. In McFadden and Felix Jones, Lee had the perfect backs to run the 'Cat, and he was able to transfer it to the skillsets of Miami backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. I first wrote about the Wildcat in late September after the Dolphins used it to decleat the Patriots, 38-13, in a Week 3 shocker. In my research for the linked article, I came across a YouTube video of Lee explaining and diagramming the three primary plays used:

Steeler in which the running back moves from left to right after the snap and takes the ball from the quarterback. The running back then blasts off to the right behind a pulling left guard, an unbalanced right offensive line, and an H-back either between and behind the two right tackles or just outside the right tackle to block;

Power in which the fake to the running back in the "Steeler" formation leaves the quarterback to (hopefully) blow through any one of four different holes to the right; and

Counter (70 Weak), in which the fake leaves the defense biting on "Power," only to watch helplessly as the quarterback runs left through a huge open cutback lane.

Now, the Dolphins have added a couple new wrinkles to the Arkansas version. Against the Pats, Ronnie Brown ran the counter, but threw a touchdown pass to tight end Anthony Fasano. In a Week 6 loss to the Texans, the call was the "Steeler" sweep, with an extra Ricky Williams handoff to quarterback Chad Pennington, who then threw a deep touchdown pass to wiiiiiiiiide open running back Patrick Cobbs. The Dolphins are able to run this series so very effectively because they have the fundamentals down; they have Jake Long as the extra right tackle, left guard Justin Smiley pulls to the right with aplomb, tight end David Martin deflects any extra pressure and helps plays develop as the H-back, and they have the timing of the play down to an absolute science. When the 49ers tried a Wildcat derivative a few weeks back, running back Frank Gore had run so far beyond quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan pre-snap, the specter of a fake had been eliminated. The Dolphins work this thing in unison, and that's why it's so effective for them. It's more than a gadget -- it's a representation of the franchise's renewed commitment to fundamentals.

The Seahawks without any such commitment, are basically hosed. And one play this season told me why. The reason the Dolphins were able to burn New England with this stuff was that the Patriots defense was biting on the first move every time. They were late for any misdirection, and they weren't athletic enough to stop the plays as they were progressing.

If you remember New York Giants running back Brandon Jacobs' 44-yard run against the Seahawks in that lovely 44-6 beatdown earlier this year, you probably also remember that when the Giants' offensive line ran a simple slide protection to the right, but pulled their guards left, all three Seattle linebackers were late to the play because they all bit on the slide to the right. Seattle's defense has been pretty notorious for this for a while; even when the team was Super Bowl-level great, the motto was "Every Man to the Ball!"

That's great when you know where the ball is, and the gentlemen holding the ball don't change direction. Otherwise? Bad news. And when you have cornerbacks susceptible to the slightest route alterations? Yikes.

Still, the Wildcat is only part of the Miami story.

TeamTotal DVOARankLast weekOffense DVOARankDefense DVOARankSpecial teamsRank
Dolphins9.4%121214.9%8-3.0%11-8.5%31
Seahawks-18.7%2727-7.5%2611.8%200.6%16

Miam offense vs. Seattle defense

 Offense DVOARankLast weekPass offenseRankRush offenseRank
Dolphins14.9%8230.8%4-1.9%19
 Defense DVOARankLast weekPass offenseRankRush offenseRank
Seahawks11.8%202232.0%29-10.7%8

Pennington currently ranks sixth in DYAR among quarterbacks, and he's working with some unheralded receivers. Last week, Greg Camarillo put up 111 yards on 11 receptions against a Wildcat-conscious Broncos defense. Two weeks ago, it was Ted Ginn, Jr., that former supposed bust, who gained 175 yards on 7 catches against the Bills. Camarillo and Ginn currently rank 54th and 67th in DYAR among receivers, but even Ginn's DYAR of -11 would lead the Seahawks.

Seahawks DVOA vs. receivers

 vs. #1 receivervs. No. 2 receivervs. other WRvs. TE
TeamDVOARankDVOARankDVOARankDVOARank
Seahawks38.2%3022.2%2317.6%2734.2%30

At this point, it's less about how the Seahawks match up against any particular group of receivers, and more about why on earth this secondary has so much trouble covering … well … ANYbody. The Seahawks have allowed 7.99 yards per pass attempt, 29th in the NFL. Their 102.2 passer rating allowed is 30th in the league – only Denver and Detroit are worse. That their Defensive Pass DVOA is so uniformly bad at this point in the season is especially worrisome for two reasons: First, this is not an injury-plagued unit – this is the secondary we supposedly wanted when the season began. Second, the guy in charge of it all will be the new head coach in eight games. And nobody seems to have any answers.

Does Tim Ruskell just have a problem with cornerback evaluation? Is the increasing reliance on man coverage overwhelming an average group of players? When you're standing at 2-6, you have to start asking questions about the future. How do you fix this? Or do you just ignore the blind spots and hope they go away?

Miami defense vs. Seattle offense

 Offense DVOARankLast weekPass offenseRankRush offenseRank
Seahawks-7.5%2625-12.5%27-2.7%20
 Defense DVOARankLast weekPass offenseRankRush offenseRank
Dolphins-3.0%11126.1%13-13.7%7

How sad is Seattle's offense? In a week where they face the Dolphins and notorious motormouth linebacker Joey Porter, Porter spent his time yapping about Jaguars receiver Matt Jones. Yes, the Seahawks have degenerated to the point where Peezy doesn't even feel the need to back about them. Here's what we do know: When Porter lines up against Walter Jones this Sunday, it will be just about the only semblance of the Super Bowl that shall not be mentioned you'll see this season.

Miami DVOA vs. receivers


 vs. #1 receivervs. No. 2 receivervs. other WRvs. TE
TeamDVOARankDVOARankDVOARankDVOARank
Dolphins-17.8%647.8%30-30.1%510.4%18

How will the game go

It's been an interesting week in that I've spent a lot of time writing about the undefeated Tennessee Titans for Scout.com. And when you spend enough time studying a team that can seemingly only beat itself, and then move back to a team that can't get out of its own way, the problems that plague the latter type of team come into much sharper relief.

The Miami Dolphins, a team that was one overtime touchdown catch away from 0-16 last year, are now playing smarter, harder, more mistake-free, and with more verve, grit and momentum then the Seahawks can seem to manage. And there's no reason to believe that the final score won't reflect this.

The good news is that the Dolphins prove that with a good front office shakeup and a new philosophy in place, you can go from outhouse to penthouse in a single season. Unfortunately, the Dolphins will be proving this against a Seahawks team that looks more and more like the sort of organization that might benefit from a similar shakeup. A lot will be revealed over the next eight weeks, and the matchups will be just as much about the future as the here and now.

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