Giants offense vs. Seattle defense

Fatal subtraction

The Seahawks' defense may have best prepared for New York's current receiver situation when they practiced against their own "no-names" through the last month. For the Giants, it could be argued that losing Plaxico Burress to a one-game suspension is like losing Bobby Engram and Deion Branch at the same time.

You can talk about Amani Toomer, (the other) Steve Smith and Domenik Hixon, but Plax has been (the real) Steve Smith to Eli Manning's Jake Delhomme for a while now. It's not just that Burress' ability to go up for jump balls in that magical, mystical box two feet over the head of each receiver that Manning loves to aim at makes him the last great escape hatch with Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey gone. It's also that Burress' 6-5 standing height (and 8-0+ leaping height) would have made him a nightmare matchup for the vertically challenged Kelly Jennings and Josh Wilson had things gone that way. His physical nature in fighting for balls would have given Marcus Trufant fits. There wasn't a matchup I feared more in this game. And now, thanks to a series of off-field shenanigans, it's gone.

With their iffy safety help this year, the Seahawks were in no way prepared for this player -- there is no question in my mind that Plax would have toasted Seattle in Santana Moss-over-Terence Newman fashion. We'll never really know what a favor Tom Coughlin did for the Seahawks, but I have a pretty good idea.

That said, who's left? There's Smith, currently leading the Others with a DYAR of 19 (good for 44th in the NFL) and a DVOA of 3.4% (36th). There's Toomer, whose -25 DYAR and -27.0& DVOA put him in the bottom of the receiver pool with world-beaters like Michael Clayton, Michael Jenkins, and Ted Ginn. Of course, you'll also see Wes Welker, Joey Galloway and Braylon Edwards near the bottom, which tells you a bit about the indicator strength of early-season stats -- we don't know everything just yet.

Then, there's Hixon, ranked behind only New Orleans' Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson among receivers with 5-11 passes targeted their way. Sample size alert to be sure, but there's also the specter of a passive set of defensive schemes leading Manning to paydirt over and over. Pressure must and will come from a rookie who's filling an interesting role that finds its predecessor on the Giants' roster.

Tight end Kevin Boss could also see an increased role, though he's put up league-average production to date. Something tells me that a lot of the balls that would have gone to Plax will go underneath to Boss.

The hybrids

In a recent Atlanta Journal Constitution article, Falcons defensive end Jamaal Anderson discussed the effect that New York's incredible 2007 defensive line had on other teams. In particular, Justin Tuck's versatility has people talking. Tuck was a constant game-changer at tackle last season -- his Super Bowl performance had more than one pundit saying that Eli Manning should at least share the MVP -- and he's now moved outside following Michael Strahan's retirement and Osi Umenyiora's season-ending injury. In that role, Tuck's been putting in yet another bravura performance. The Falcons talked to Anderson in the preseason about rushing from inside, using his speed to create Tuck-style mismatches.

The Falcons weren't the only team taking notice. When Seattle selected USC end Lawrence Jackson in the first round of the 2008 draft, they were setting up a similar scenario. Jackson has the size and experience to make this work -- he shaded inside over guard in college at times -- and Seahawks team president Tim Ruskell will do anything to insert new wrinkles in Seattle's outstanding (if inconsistent) pass rush. Jackson has two sacks so far in his rookie season, and he's been paying dividends in multiple roles as advertised.

Football Outsiders game-charter Brian McIntyre, who also writes for Scout.com, gave me the numbers. Jackson has lined up at right defensive tackle 44 out of a possible 180 plays (24.4 percent), always in nickel or dime sets. Game 2 against the 49ers, where Jackson picked up his two sacks, saw him line up 21 times out of 63 possible plays at RDT. One in three seems a pretty good ratio -- we'll see how this plays out over the season.

Seattle's receiver-go-round situation has eclipsed the story of Jackson's versatility, but keep an eye on the rookie when he lines up against the Giants. Justin Tuck will certainly be watching.

While it's all well and good that Engram and Branch are back, Matt Hasselbeck's primary concern on Sunday will be evading varying levels of pressure from New York's pass rush. The Giants currently rank second in Defensive Adjusted Sack Rate, behind only Jim Johnson's kamikaze blitzers in Philly. Seattle counters with a rank of 17th in Offensive Adjusted Sack Rate. Yikes. The good news for Hasselbeck is that he's got his security blanket back -- when Bobby Engram runs that first inside slant on third-and-5, picking up a first down, Seattle's QB will breathe a major sigh of relief.

The Seahawks will likely tailor their aerial attack around the Giants' pass rush, relying more on the execution of simpler bailout routes than anything exotic. Exoticism takes time, and time is a luxury Hasselbeck won't have. Involving Julius Jones as a receiver out of the backfield, and a look or two with Mo' Morris split wide, could be the order of the day.

Flag day

According to the handy-dandy FO Penalty Database, the Seahawks have been called for 23 penalties this season, while the Giants have 21 calls against them. This puts both teams in the middle of the pack, solidly between New England's league-low 9 and Carolina's 43 (including 15 false starts!)

Giants center Shaun O'Hara has asked Giants fans to "bring the noise" at the Meadowlands, ostensibly to get back at the team whose fans caused eleven New York false starts at Qwest Field in 2005.

The Seahawks have committed five false starts in their first three games; the G-Men just one. Of Seattle's five false starts, only one was committed by a lineman -- center Chris Spencer against the Bills in the season opener. Tight ends Will Heller and John Carlson, fullback Leonard Weaver, and receiver Logan Payne were the other culprits.

The only other early trend Seattle needs to watch for is defensive offsides -- they've already been called on it four times in the young season, including two infractions by tackle Brandon Mebane in different games.

The Giants haven't really shown any penalty tendencies yet -- they have three holds and three encroachment calls, both on the low side of the league list.

How will the game go?

This week, we've spent far more time talking about Seattle's defense. That's no accident. On the road, facing a team known above all for physical play and missing its one breakout playmaker, Seattle will find itself in a smashmouth battle. The odds favor Tom Coughlin coming out of the gate with a heavy percentage of Brandon Jacobs power running, with the occasional zoom-and-boom from Derrick Ward or Ahmad Bradshaw. This is a team that likes to go downhill, beating defenses up in an effective war of attrition.

The Seahawks counter with a defense ranked second in DVOA against the run, and eighth in Defensive Adjusted Line Yards. When you look at the DALY page, pay particular attention to the Power Success Allowed rank -- only the Ravens have allowed a lower success percentage. Power Success is defined as the percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown, and runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. Scoring plays and drive-extenders. This is how the Giants make their bones (only Denver and Dallas have a better Drive Success Rate), and this is what the Seahawks must stop if they hope to pull out an upset.

Unless a great deal of effort was expended on the secondary over the bye week (Danny, please tell us that this was indeed the case), expect at least one of New York's under-the-radar receivers to have a big day. In the end, it won't matter -- if the Seahawks control the line of scrimmage. In a Seahawks victory, Lofa Tatupu and Brandon Mebane are probably your MVPs.