Doug Farrar's weekly peek inside the numbers starts out with a grisly reality. After two games, the Rams have yet to run a red-zone snap and are showing all indications of being horribly abysmal on offense. Historically abysmal, actually, and as Mr. Farrar found.

And Farrar doesn't need to stay at a Holiday Inn Express to know what he's talking about. He's one of The Football Outsiders, the sharp-minded folks who put together the Football Prospectus, essential reading for anyone who wants to look inside the stats that get recited on a weekly basis.

You can click here for a biography and a nifty little drawing of Doug on the staff page at Football Outsiders. I can't thank him enough for contributing this. And here's Doug's analysis of this week's game:

Falling down

By Doug Farrar

By all accounts, the worst team in the 13-year history of our stats is the 2005 San Francisco 49ers. In Alex Smith's first season, San Francisco put up a DVOA of -56.5%, an astonishing figure when you consider that if you added together the efficiencies of both Super Bowl XL teams (Pittsburgh: 28.1%; Seattle: 26.2%), you'd have 54.6%, which wouldn't even bring you back to Ground Zero. The 49ers established amazing single-game marks, as well: A -152.6% DVOA in a 42-3 Week 2 loss to the Eagles, a -148.9% DVOA in a 52-17 Week 7 loss to the Redskins, and a -130.5% DVOA in a 42-13 Week 14 loss to the Seahawks. The defense (18.0% -- remember, Defensive DVOA is worse when it's positive and better when it's negative) wasn't quite as bad as the offense (-39.8%), but close enough. The 2005 49ers were a disaster by any measurement.

Why are we talking about the 2005 49ers when the Seahawks are about to face the 2008 Rams? Because through two weeks, the 2008 Rams are on pace to completely obliterate those old numbers when it comes to sheer inefficiency. In short, we might be looking at not only the Worst Team in Football, but the Worst Team of the DVOA Era.

Whaddya want, a medal?

Statistical Disclaimer: Our team stats are out through Week 2, but there's still no DVOA yet. Why? Because the "D" stands for Defensive, and there are no opponent adjustments yet. Therefore, VOA (the "Classic Coke" of our numbers) gets a workout for a few weeks. We also use a complementary stat early in the season called DAVE (DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early). This formula combines VOA and the FO preseason projections. For Week 2, DAVE consists of 75 percent projection, 25 percent 2008 data. This number will even up and roll down as the season goes on and the numbers are more representative of a larger and more reliable sample size -- last week, it was 90/10. As such, we'll be using it for a couple more weeks to balance things out.

Still, no matter how may disclaimers you throw at the Rams, them's some ugly numbers. Basically, this team confuses our software. Since the idea of this column is to talk about specific matchups, I asked FO Big Kahuna Aaron Schatz to dig into his Super Secret Bag O' Stats and come up with a few reasons that the Rams could surprise in this game. This was Aaron's response:

"So far this year, the Rams are #1 in Field Goal Value over Average. Josh Brown hasn't tried any short field goals yet, but he's hit two 54s and a 46."

Even that stat comes with a big, fat, nasty caveat. The reason the Rams haven't tried any short field goals is that they've not yet run a play in the opponent's red zone. I'm not kidding. The Rams have not run a play inside the opposing 20-yard line. They're 3 for 24 when attempting to convert third down, and about 70 percent of their third-down plays have had at least 10 yards to go. The one touchdown they've scored this year was a complete fluke. In the fourth quarter of last week's 41-13 loss to the Giants, Marc Bulger threw up a 45-yard prayer in the end zone to Torry Holt. New York safety Kenny Phillips was draped all over Holt, who somehow caught the ball despite fighting with Phillips for the ball as he was going to the turf. The three aforementioned field goals represent the only other times St. Louis has cracked the scoreboard -- basically, we're talking miracles, Josh Brown, or shutouts.

2007

2008

If the Seahawks need to blitz to get pressure in this game, their front four has major problems. St. Louis' offensive line folds like a cardboard table with several fatal flaws. If you watch the Giants' pass rush, you'll see St. Louis' tackles collapse inside, forcing Bulger to step up in the pocket and throw. That's generally where at least one defensive tackle (usually the one who just beat right guard Richie Incognito) has already set up camp. The Rams allowed 10 sacks in their first two games, but you'll remember that the Seahawks took J.T. O'Sullivan to the turf eight times last week, only to see O'Sullivan torch Seattle's secondary for 321 yards.

Here's the difference this time: While San Francisco's offense will take you deep if you don't get to their quarterback, the Rams have no answer for pressure. If you subtract the Rams' 72 sack yards allowed from their 335 passing yards gained through two games, you’re looking at 131.5 net passing yards per contest. Ouch.

Add to that the fact that both Drew Bennett and Keenan Burton will be out of this game with injuries, and you've got a passing game almost as depleted as Seattle's. Tight end Randy McMichael and longtime Seahawks nemesis Torry Holt have seven receptions each. Holt may be able to put up another bravura performance against Marcus Trufant -- who Holt has dominated through the years -- but the days of Bulger blowing through his reads and hitting the open man with ruthless efficiency are pretty much over. He doesn't have time to do more than dink-and-dunk, and the targets he does have are either declining or defective.

The only real threat to Seattle's defense should be running back Steven Jackson, whose game against the Giants was an inspirational example of a single player busting his butt when all around him was chaos. Jackson gained only 93 yards on 27 carries against the Giants, but he was very close to at least one long gainer. Jackson should be the Seahawks' primary defensive focus -- of course, for that strategy to be effective, Seattle's secondary will have to drop the Jason David Flyover Maneuver -- allowing five pass plays of 25 yards or more against the 49ers is not how you win the division, kids. Jackson also leads the team in receptions with 10.

2007

2008

First, about the unbelievable receiver situation: The comings and goings have been detailed very well by Messrs. O'Neil and Romero on this fine blog, and summarized (complete with Who references and Spinal Tap jokes) by FO's Vince Verhei and Ben Riley in this week's Scramble for the Ball over at FO. We know that Koren Robinson is back (and true to this year's form, he's already sore after a couple of workouts), and we know that the Seahawks gave up a fifth-round draft pick (conditional fourth) for ex-Panthers and Broncos receiver Keary Colbert. In the interest of brevity, I'll just say that I wrote the player comment about Colbert in Pro Football Prospectus 2008 based on a good amount of offseason DVR review, and I now sincerely hope I am proven wrong. In Colbert's case, catch percentage is a problem, and has been for a while.

Now -- what will this Seattle passing game be facing in the Rams? Watching St. Louis' defense against the Giants reminded me that while great defenses play like bulls in the proverbial china shop, bad defenses play afraid, and it's easy to tell the difference. The Rams' secondary plays off the line for the most part, dropping linebackers into coverage or in basic placements, leaving the middle zone wide open for draws, traps, cutbacks, and all manner of misdirection. This is a team terrified to get beaten deep, which creates defensive schemes virtually guaranteed to produce that very result. Of course, the lack of a pass rush doesn't help -- the Rams have two sacks all season. If there's one team that could (and should) fall victim to the Seahawks' undermanned passing game, it's this one.

How will the game go?

Well, there's how it should go, and how it could. It should be a point-a-minute festival for the Seahawks team, and a continuation of this team's ability to consistently beat the Rams. Anything else would be an extreme embarrassment, especially for a team facing the threat of 0-3 in Mike Holmgren's final season.

The wild cards

Action Jackson is still one of the best running backs in the NFL; it's just a shame that there's nothing around him. Holt and rookie Donnie Avery should be the two primary receivers. Avery ran a 4.43 at the Combine and had 17 receptions of 20 yards or more in his senior season alone. He's more a speed guy than a multi-faceted receiver at this point, but that's enough to put a kink in Seattle's plans.

The answers

It's a pretty simple scouting report. The Seahawks must be more aggressive in their man coverages, especially with the rookie -- Avery can be diverted with press at the line. And zone coverage, especially safety help, must be more timely and reliable against the crafty veteran Holt. Short passes represent chances for the linebackers to hit hard and create turnovers. Basically, if the Seahawks play their game and stay within themselves (insert other sports clichés here), they can't lose to a team this bad. That's the defense. The Seattle offense should light up this Rams defense, and as much as this game is a must-win for Scott Linehan's future with the team, it's also a must for Seattle's future under Holmgren.

Win this one and head to the bye, things look entirely different. . .