Politics Northwest
November 7, 2008 1:31 PM
Gregoire campaign manager on her 'decisive win'
Posted by Jim Brunner
Gov. Christine Gregoire's campaign manager, Kelly Evans, sent out a memo to the governor's campaign staff and steering committee today, outlining her thoughts on why the governor was able to win reelection by such a wide margin over Republican Dino Rossi.
While the media appeared surprised by Rossi's big defeat, it came as no shock to the Gregoire campaign, Evans wrote. The governor's lead had steadily expanded in internal tracking polls starting about three weeks before Election Day.
You can read the whole memo here.
Evans credited the victory to an early start compared with 2004 (when Gregoire had to beat Ron Sims in a contested primary), as well as Rossi's negative ads backfiring and the aid of independent groups like unions and environmentalists.
She also acknowledged the Obama effect, but argued Gregoire did more than ride his coattails.
"As I'm sure you are well aware, there will be those who say the reason for our victory was 'coattails,' but that is a very simplistic analysis that diminishes what we have accomplished. There is no doubt that our message from day one was compatible with Obama's and it is not a surprise that voters rejected Rossi's Republican worldview and sided with Gov. Gregoire. However, you only achieve a blowout like this by doing more than ride coattails.
For example, we fought for Eastern Washington votes. I am proud to say that we achieved a higher percentage of the vote than President-elect Obama in several Eastern Washington counties, including Spokane, Asotin, and Pend Oreille. And as I said above we expanded our share of the vote in nearly every Eastern Washington county from 2004 to 2008."
Despite being outspent by millions, Evans said the campaign saw victory coming as Election Day approached, as working-class voters began to turn against Rossi in greater numbers.
"Four weeks before the election, we were losing public school parents by 11 points – two weeks prior, we were winning by a point. Same is true for union households, a move from +12 to +27 in just three weeks," Evans wrote.
While Evans' memo doesn't mention it, that shift came amid Gregoire's aggressive ads hitting Rossi on the minimum wage. While he did not actually announce plans to lower the minimum wage by $1.50, as the ads suggested, Rossi's loose comments before a friendly pro-business crowd left him wide open for criticism. (Especially when combined with his record of voting against minimum wage increases.)
Asked at her news conference Wednesday to identify a turning point in the 2008 campaign, Gregoire singled out Rossi's minimum wage comments.
"When he started talking about considering lowering the minimum wage, that affected every working man and woman, working family in the state," Gregoire said. "I think that spoke loudly to the differences between Dino and myself... and we began seeing in our own internal polls that there was a change that happened as a result of that."


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