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Geoff Baker covers the Mariners for The Seattle Times. He provides daily coverage of the team throughout spring training, and during the season.

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August 1, 2008 10:07 AM

A little move, lots to analyze

Posted by Geoff Baker

Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, it's time to look back at what was reasonably expected and what has transpired.

It became evident pretty quickly that, for all of the Mariners' tough talk after the firings of Bill Bavasi and John McLaren in June, they were not going to trade Ichiro. No matter how much sense it made at the time. Nor were they going to trade J.J. Putz at a time his trade value had dropped to its lowest point since he was still a minor league starting pitcher.

But this team had some intriguing options. A while back, we made a top-five list of the most likeliest Mariners to be traded. In the end, those players did indeed figure most prominently into trade discussions.

Here they were, in order of likeliest to be dealt:

Arthur Rhodes
Erik Bedard
Jarrod Washburn
Raul Ibanez
Adrian Beltre

Let's look at the five and see what lies ahead:

1. ARTHUR RHODES: He was the no-brainer trade of the group and the Mariners made out fairly well in picking up Class AA starting pitcher Gaby Hernandez for him. Mariners manager Jim Riggleman admitted yesterday that the team had known since spring training that a healthy Rhodes would likely be traded if Seattle fell out of contention. No surprises here. The Hernandez haul was good, but not overwhelming. Relievers often command their highest prices at the deadline, rather than the off-season when they are more abundant. Think back to last summer when teams wanted Wladimir Balentien or Jeff Clement for a righthanded veteran set-up man. Remember how the Texas Rangers scored three Red Sox prospects, including major league starter Kason Gabbard, for closer Eric Gagne? A decent minor league starting pitcher seems like it would be about the going rate for a 38-year-old situational lefty. When teams want to take a shot at winning, knowing how fleeting a playoff berth can be, they are often ready to give up more than seems worth it for relief pitching. The worth is all in the post-season, not in the one-for-one value of the players.


2. ERIK BEDARD: Any shot at dealing him vanished when he failed to take the mound again after July 4. His shoulder impingement would seem to be more serious than the team has let on. Bedard is not scheduled to even play catch again until Sunday, two weeks after his MRI exam. At this rate, he will likely not start a major league game before September. And after that, it may be a while until he rounds back into form. In other words, the odds of him being traded this winter just went down. Teams will want to know what they are dealing for and it seems unlikely a handful of Bedard starts against AAA-laden lineups in September will change that. At this rate, he looks destined to remain in Seattle for another year, until the next trade deadline rolls around.


3. JARROD WASHBURN: As expected, there were teams ready to take on all of his remaining $13.7 million in salary through 2009, which would have seemed impossible back in May. But the Mariners held out, quite ambitiously, for more. They did not get it. There is still time to dump Washburn for salary before Aug. 31. Washburn's next couple of starts could play a key role in seeing whether his value holds. If he gets routed tonight and in five days, the Yankees may no longer want him. Or, if Sidney Ponson picks up his game in New York, same thing. The Mariners can still deal Washburn for prospects not on a 40-man roster. Such prospects would not be required to pass through waivers first. Gaby Hernandez, acquired in the Rhodes deal, was not on the 40-man roster. A player or two of his ilk could be interesting to the Mariners. But then again, such a deal could still be scuttled by a team putting a waiver claim in on Washburn. At that point, the deal would be off. The Mariners would have to pull Washburn back, and try to deal him over the winter, or else let the claiming team keep Washburn and pay his salary. Also, if the Mariners tried to trade Washburn for more valued prospects on a 40-man roster, those players would likely be snatched up in waiver claims as well. The reality is, the best way for the Mariners to receive players in a Washburn deal was going to be before yesterday's deadline, or later this coming winter. Right now, in August, because of what I just outlined, it seems unlikely they will receive more than a salary dump and maybe a token prospect. But it was worth calling New York's bluff and dragging this stalemate all the way up to the deadline yesterday to see if the Yankees flinched. If the Mariners really wanted salary relief all along -- and were just bluffing to see if the Yankees caved -- they can still get that salary deal right now. It's not like the Yankees were offering anything serious beyond money relief. But if Seattle wants some decent players as well, that will likely have to wait until the winter. And Washburn will have to keep producing. Oh yeah, and the team will have to pay him another $3.5 million or so to finish off this season.


4. RAUL IBANEZ: This was another controversial trade not made. We still don't know who those two 40-man roster players were that the Toronto Blue Jays were dangling. But we have seen the names of players the Mariners sought from the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets and it would have been quite a haul had Seattle pulled it off. Now, the Mariners have no chance of dealing Ibanez this season. His salary is low enough that he would be claimed off waivers in any attempted trade. And, as with Washburn, the quality of players coming back would likely have to be inferior to what Seattle could have had before yesterday. Otherwise, those trade returns would almost certainly be claimed off waivers as well. So, the plan now could be to let Ibanez leave this off-season and claim two high-level compensatory draft picks if he signs elsewhere as a Type A free agent. That involves keeping his around now, where his presence in left field is blocking another younger, perhaps quicker, defender at that position. Someone like Wladimir Balentien. It will be interesting to see whether Ibanez sees any designated hitter action the final two months to free up outfield room. Not promoting Balentien and playing him in the outfield would seem a foolish waste of a development opportunity by a team headed nowhere. The compensatory draft picks for Ibanez are not a sure thing. He has to be offered arbitration by the team first. If he declines and leaves, the Mariners get the picks. If he accepts, they have to keep him another year and lose the picks. Some have suggested the team wants to bring Ibanez back next year. If so, then not trading him yesterday was a strategical blunder. He could have been dealt as a two-month rental and then brought back as a free-agent signing next season. In that scenario, the Mariners could have picked up some trade returns for him. What would be the point of keeping him around for two meaningless months this year? Judging by the fact he is still here, it is very likely these final two months for Ibanez will be his last with the Mariners and that he will seek to play out his remaining years with a contender.


5. ADRIAN BELTRE: As expected, he received plenty of interest but it was always going to be impossible to dump his $16 million in remaining salary through 2009 as well as receive top-shelf trade returns. That would be too much for just about all but a small percentage of franchises to absorb. And unlike with Ibanez, there was no player ready to step in and replace Beltre at third base on a regular basis. Seattle quite rightly expected some top returns for a Gold Glove third baseman with 25-homer power. Those may be easier to acquire by the winter, when Beltre's salary becomes a more manageable $12 million and the market of potential suitors expands. You could still theoretically dump him for salary before Aug. 31, but then the Mariners would be seriously short-changing themselves on the returns front. They can't do that here. Beltre is one of their few tradable players with any real value and they have to try to maximize that. It seems unlikely he'll re-sign after 2009, so it will be best to deal him this off-season. Seattle could wait until next summer, but then he gets the stigma of a rent-a-player. There is also a chance Beltre could slump in the first half of 2009, as he has been known to do before. In which case, his value would drop even further. Trading him this winter, either alone or in a package, seems to be the best bet for this team.


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Posted by Gordie

10:23 AM, Aug 01, 2008

This inept inactivity is par for the course for these Seattle Mariners. If the rumor is true that the M's got mad that the trade details were leaked from the Yankee side, it's not difficult to picture Lee Pelekoudas throwing a tantrum and crying, "I'm taking my ball and going home!" And the conflicting stories about the Ibanez/Blue Jays non-deal makes Pelekoudas look like someone who definitely shouldn't be a major league GM. Which, of course, means upper management will give him a four-year contract.

Posted by Mikavexo

10:50 AM, Aug 01, 2008

It makes sense to keep Ibanez this season if the offer from Toronto was less promising than the compensatory picks. What I think will go down is that the M's will offer Ibanez arbitration and tell him straight up that he will be strictly a DH and a back up 1st baseman. He will then turn down the arbitration offer in order to go somewhere else as an outfielder, which then gives the M's 2 compensatory picks who are better prospects than what the Jays were offering.

Posted by bob

10:57 AM, Aug 01, 2008

When will we see smart, shrewd, aggressive decision making from any member of Mariners management? They run this team in such a lazy "maintenance mode", it's nearly impossible to get fired up for anything they do. Maybe one day they'll realize that fans will get as fired up as they are, and that if they give us all something to root for, or at least some decision making that we can fully trust, we as fans will support them like they've never seen.

This deadline inactivity was yet another blunder, in my eyes. Ibanez should be gone, Beltre should be gone, and for the love of god...Washburn should have been in pin stripes last week.

Posted by fred

11:02 AM, Aug 01, 2008

Geoff: Excellent and, in my judgment, correct analysis. The Mariners really blew it when they failed to deal Washburn and Ibanez when their trading values were at their highest.

Beltre could be traded this winter, yes, but right now he remains a cornerstone Ms player. If he is not going to be signed beyond 2009, he should be traded this winter for the good package he should command. Too risky to wait until mid-2009...an injury or poor performance early in the season could reduce his value.

You are right on Bedard. The Mariners clearly did not do due diligence on this guy before turning over Jones, Sherrill & Co. to the Orioles. Ranks with the earlier giveups, in another regime, of Ortiz, Varitek, Lowe, Carlos Guillen for nada. If he rebounds in 2009, he can be traded for value in mid-season. He clearly is not going to sign a long-term contract in Seattle.

Interesting to see what the Nationals, the Mariners' competitors for the No. 1 draft choice in 2009, did yesterday. They outrightly released several veterans and called up prospects. When will Vidro, Cairo be similarly gone?

Posted by stango

11:08 AM, Aug 01, 2008

I'm quite bummed that they didn't trade Wash as well. I can't imagine his value being any higher than it is now. Regression to the mean is only a matter of time, and I just don't think that he'll have as much value in the offseason. Let's hope a waiver deal comes through.

I'm not that annoyed that we didn't trade Raul, since it seems impossible to find out who the player(s) offered were. With the optimistic hope that we bring in a GM with the ability to asses talent, it's entirely possible that the comp picks will eventually yield better players.

The worst case scenario is that he signs with the WS winner, and we get the last pick in the 1st rd and the sandwich pick. I sure hope we don't use those picks on guys we don't know what to do with, however. We better not re-sign him, since he can't field and obviously doesn't want to DH.

Question: how is "type A" determined? Is it the money in the new contract? or number of years served? Is it just a matter of offering arbitration? Just curious if it's possible that he won't be Type A.

I don't really trust anyone in the current M's FO to make a good trade, even though it does seem that we did as well as can be hoped in the Rhodes deal.

I'm still trying to figure out why the Jays wanted Raul, although Geoff did explain their thinking. If I were a Jays fan, and those players offered are actually going to be good, I'd be breathing a big sigh of relief today, although they could have maybe replaced them with the comp picks. They are not making the playoffs, with or w/o Raul.

Posted by meagain

11:12 AM, Aug 01, 2008

A thought on Cairo. Odds are high that Willie Bloomquist and Jose Vidro will be gone after this season. Is there a spot on the team, even when it goes young, for Cairo in that scenario? The M's will need one player who has his versatility. If not Cairo, who?

Posted by Stop the Pain

11:12 AM, Aug 01, 2008

Mikavexo

I hopeyou are right, but do you really have faith that the M's are capable of picking surew thing ML picks? I would submit that their record over their history is not exemplary. Abominable, comes to mind, but not a slam dunk by any standard.

Posted by Sounders

11:13 AM, Aug 01, 2008

Baghead Nation issues the following statement:

We're alive and well. GO GOOF!

Posted by Chris from Bothell

11:22 AM, Aug 01, 2008

Can't say it enough: the last thing this team needs is more borderline AAAA players clogging up the system. So holding out for getting a warm body for Washburn doesn't make sense. The Washburn thing is still a success if they manage to dump him for salary this month, or manage to trade him for a young, quality AA / AAA player.

Posted by harmnony

11:23 AM, Aug 01, 2008

Raul Ibanez "could have been dealt as a two-month rental and then brought back as a free-agent signing next season. In that scenario, the Mariners could have picked up some trade returns for him. What would be the point of keeping him around for two meaningless months this year?"

Seattle would lose a second-round draft pick if the Mariners signed Type A free agent Raul Ibanez (assuming he was traded to a team that offered him arbitration in the offseason).

Posted by LaHair39rock

11:24 AM, Aug 01, 2008

We wont need Cairo nor should any major league team. Next year Morse will take over Mr. Utility

Posted by JTG

11:26 AM, Aug 01, 2008

The Mariners wouldn't have to worry about potential "valued" 40-man roster players getting claimed on waivers and blocking a trade IF the team they were trading with was in the American League, because in that case the M's would also put in a claim on that player and -- due to their last-place record -- would be awarded that player, meaning they would have exclusive rights to acquiring that player. Hope that makes sense to everyone.

Posted by Chris from Bothell

11:31 AM, Aug 01, 2008

Re: Raul:

The compensatory draft picks for Ibanez are not a sure thing. He has to be offered arbitration by the team first. If he declines and leaves, the Mariners get the picks. If he accepts, they have to keep him another year and lose the picks.

Which is why not moving Raul yesterday was just fine. If he doesn't get offered arbitration, and walks for nothing, then the Ms screwed up. If he gets offered and the ms get picks, spiffy. If he gets offered and accepts, AND the Ms put him @ DH where he should have been since late 06, also spiffy.

re: Beltre - What do you ask for in return? There's still severe power outages at several positions for the Ms, and there's a guaranteed downgrade defensively at 3b using anyone else in the organization there, with the possible exception of Mike Morse (and that's stretching it quite a bit). Again, the last thing the Ms need is to clog their system with AAAA talent.

Is there any +++ bat at 1b, LF, RF, or any #2 / #3 pitcher, one could get in return? And don't say Manny Ramierez (Beltre has no-trade clause to Dodgers, I thought.

And actually, more productive place to start from, for Beltre speculation: Who are the top 3 - 5 teams most likely to need an upgrade at 3b in 09?

Posted by disappointedfan

11:32 AM, Aug 01, 2008

This is CNNSI take on LOSERS OF TRADE DATELINE...

2. Mariners. There wasn't any fire to their reputed fire sale. After removing their manager and GM during the season, it was declared that no one was safe. As it turns out, the only ones who weren't safe were low-.200s-hitting first baseman Richie Sexson, who was released, and 38-year-old middle reliever reliever Arthur Rhodes, who went to the Marlins for pitching prospect Gaby Hernandez in a deadline deal that was said to be on the table for a month. Perhaps they didn't let their interim GM Lee Pelekoudas do anything. Because just about nothing got done. There's no reason they didn't accept the Yankees' generous offer to pay the remainder of Jarrod Washburn's contract. On the bright side, since about all their players are overpaid, many of them will clear waivers, allowing for a re-do.

Posted by G-Man

11:39 AM, Aug 01, 2008

The Washburn analysis was excellent, IMHO. Yes, it made more sense to hold out and seeif the NYY's flinched and coughed up a real prospect, because the downside of an August deal is hardly any less than the one they offered us. Of course, unless Jarrod turns back into a pumpkin, interest disappears, and the Mariners end up with him performing at that level for $13 million over the next 1.3 years.

Posted by scottM

11:39 AM, Aug 01, 2008

It's hard to understand the venom toward Pelekoudas regarding the non-trades. He didn't create any more holes on this team by caving and simply dumping salary.

I say if this team is "STUCK" with Felix, Washburn, Bedard, Silva, JJ Putz, Morrow, the solid young bullpen, Beltre, Yuni, Lopez, LaHair (if he keeps it up), Clement (if he gets his bat going), the prospects for 2009 are not so dire.

Get three solid bats––two in the outfield, one at DH

Get JJ healthy again with his old closer toughness.
Get Bedard healthy.
Get Yuni more plate discipline.
Get Silva focused.
Get Clement to RELAX and Focus at the plate.
Convince Ichiro to move back to Center if necessary.

Acquire José Guillen
Sign Ibanez for DH and to platoon with LaHair at 1B.

This team is not that far off from being back to its 2007 form. The most glaring weakness is at the plate. I think the M's in '09 will surprise us (unless we blow up the whole team).

Posted by Mikavexo

11:40 AM, Aug 01, 2008

Stop the pain- to answer your question regarding the M's assessing talent in the draft; it seems to me that Morrow was a good pick, Aumont seems like a good pick, I know many didn't like selecting a relief pitcher in the first round last year, but I don't think he'll be a bust. Additionally, their second round pick started out really well in Everett. So, when it comes to assessing draft talent they seem to be doing well in the last few years.

This would have been a much better deal for Toronto though because Raul wouldn't have re-signed with them and then they would receive the 2 picks who would be better than the two players they gave up. Then everyone on this board would be pointing at another horrible trade the M's made and how they could have had those picks instead of the career minor leaguers they got in the deal.

Posted by meagain

11:40 AM, Aug 01, 2008

Thanks for the answer to my question, LaHair; Morse will be a good utility man if he can play uninjured for a year. IF. (And I hope he can; I like the kid, happened to sit next to him one night right after he injured his knee. He was in obvious discomfort, left after five innings.)

As to Miguel Cairo, I'd bet $1,000 right now that he will be on a major league roster next year. He's lucky to be starting often now--with a good team he wouldn't be--but he understands his role and puts out all he has when he's on the field. He has value.

Posted by ghph

11:43 AM, Aug 01, 2008

You can make a trade after the deadline where prospects are traded back in return for a vet; they all have to pass waivers, this is true. However, you can pull the prospects back off waivers, if any of the prospects are claimed, then the trading team just holds on to them until after the season is over and consummates the other half of the trade then.

Adam Stern at Pawtucket (Red Sox AAA) was a recent example of this, if I remember correctly.

Posted by BrianL

11:47 AM, Aug 01, 2008

scottM - I've been saying this for weeks and everyone thinks I'm nuts.

If you think about it, the lack of production we've gotten from 1B/DH and one of the OF spots this year has really hurt. Those typically are the parts of a ballclub that can be filled easily with average performers.

When you consider that Richie Sexson, Jose Vidro, Wilkerson/Wlad performed below the ability of a warm body from AAA, it's easy to see how this team had a hard time scoring runs. I think people will be shocked to find out how much better this team can be if you staff those positions with simply average players.

Mike did a rough calculation a few weeks ago and came to the conclusion that Richie/Vidro/Wilk/Wlad/Raul's Defense might be costing this team 100 runs over the course of the season.

That's huge.

Get those 100 runs in the differential column back, and this team is over .500.

Posted by Miles

11:55 AM, Aug 01, 2008

I have no doubt that Washburn will be moved in the next few weeks for salary relief, which is what the Yankees were offering. On Ibanez I've always been torn. There's a part of me that thinks the M's should resign him and keep him here for the rest of his career.

Anyway, it's now time to see if the M's stop giving pointless AB's to guys like Cairo and Vidro. They have to give the kids all the ABs they can the rest of the way.

Posted by scottM

11:59 AM, Aug 01, 2008

BrianL- Yes! And if the M's will take the $23 million saved from Vidro and Sexson next year, and go for ABOVE AVERAGE sticks in the OF and DH, then '09 looks promising, indeed.

I don't mind if Pelekoudas or his successor trade Washburn/Beltre/Bedard but it has to make sense from a PLAYER replacement standpoint, not from simply a money savings standpoint. If not, what's wrong with a #2 and #3 lefty tandem and gold glove 3rd baseman (with a healthy thumb) in 2009?

In terms of team chemistry, I really do think that the core of this Mariner team is truly embarrassed by 2008. I think they will come out in '09 and surprise us. [And this includes everyones favorite scapegoat, Bedard.]

Even in the last five games, I've liked the intensity of the team (outside of Yuni's flailing bat, Reed's baserunning, JJ's closing, and Silva's start). We won three of five and the two loses against Texas were excruciatingly close, with one exceptional comeback.

Posted by ancient mariner

12:12 PM, Aug 01, 2008

When Adam Jones steps to the plate this weekend or George Sherill comes in to close out the game, just remember that we still have Erica Bedard. And that doesn't even include the pitching prospects the Mariners gave in addition to Jones and Sherrill.

Bloated contracts for poor performers. A Mariner tradition....Cirillo, Spezio, Sexson, Vidro, Silva, Bautista, Washburn, Erica Bedard, Beltre. Thank you Conehead Bavasi.

Posted by The Centerfield Bum

12:17 PM, Aug 01, 2008

A few technical points to add....

Waiver claims work in the reverse order of the standings; therefore, teams with the worse record get to make the first claims. This means that the Red Sox and Rays couldn't currently block a trade of Washburn to the Yankees because of their better records.

Theoretically, its still possible for the M's to trade Washburn to the Yankees or some other team for a minor league prospect on the 40-man roster. The M's poor record puts them in position to make the first claim on a player that another team may agree to effectively waive to us in exchange for waiving a veteran such as Washburn. It would essentially be a waive, claim and trade deal.

Another issue has to do with trading Ibanez and resigning him as a free agent later. The team Ibanez was traded to could offer him arbitration which would mean that the M's would have to forfeit draft picks if they chose to resign him as a free agent.

Posted by stango

12:19 PM, Aug 01, 2008

ScottM,

I agree with everything you said, except that I don't want Guillen back. I am a firm believer that the only thing that builds "chemistry" is winning, but there's no way for either of us to prove or quantify a player's impact on chemistry. I'd bet my next 2 paychecks on the fact that if this was the year the Guillen played for the M's, we would be almost as bad (he sure can't pitch), and the blowup we saw in KC (how many is that for him?) would have happened here.

And... I still think that if Yuni learns to play SS again, I'll be ok with his terrible plate approach (of course, I would like to see him look like he has a clue when in the box as well). Having him through 2011 may be a big mistake, but not if he gets back to what he showed with the glove when he came up. I mean, he was awesome, with incredible range, and now I don't ever see him getting to those grounders up the middle. SS's, like catchers, can be very valuable if they field well. See Ozzie Smith. And, no, I'm not saying the Yuni is Ozzie Smith, but you get the drift.

Posted by Donovan

12:32 PM, Aug 01, 2008

An accurate analysis of Ibanez' situation requires us to know what is in his mind. Does he want to play in Seattle next year and perhaps beyond or not? I don't know, but I bet the team has a pretty good idea. Based on his personality, it seems plausible to me, and I don't see a better DH candidate out there. Renting a guy out via trade for two months sounds like a good idea on paper, but then you lose control of the process. People thought Jamie Moyer was coming back from Philly after the 2006 season, until Gillick extended him (oops). Boy could we have used him last season. If Raul fits into the 2008 plan, and Toronto didn't offer anybody we really wanted, then why trade him?

The point of my comment is that the non-trade of Raul suggests that he WILL be our DH next year and Toronto wasn't offering pieces we felt were useful. I expect to see Vidro depart and Raul slide into the DH slot in the near future. I think that will signal he may re-sign, or at least the team is trying. If he wants to stay, then I think he will be a bargain.

One other question - Why is it unlikely that Beltre will re-sign with the M's? Because Boras is his agent? Boras will advise taking the highest offer. Is it a given that the M's can't or won't be the ones to make that? If I could lock AB up for 3 more years, I'd do it. Otherwise, we need yet another piece to the puzzle. There is no reason to move players unless we have a plan for improvement. The M's have never had a better 3B than Beltre, and they sure don't have any candidates in the wings.

Posted by Ura Hack

12:42 PM, Aug 01, 2008

It's very homerish to claim the Yankees "bluff" needed to be called. The Yankees are not aholes to trade with- they are very straight-up.

Posted by Faceplant

12:44 PM, Aug 01, 2008

"Sign Ibanez for DH and to platoon with LaHair at 1B."

You are going to platoon a LHB that can't hit left handers, with another LHB that can't hit left handers?

Am I missing something here?

Posted by downonstrikes

12:46 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Very disappointing deadline action.

scottM, very few of this current group of players seems embarrassed by their play and intensity. Don't bet too much money on a better 2009. The starship is being sucked into the black hole. Nothing survives.

Truly disappointing.

Posted by Donovan

12:54 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Not pretending to answer for Geoff, but the rational reason to call the Yankee's bluff was that you think they should have been offering more. I think they should have. If they fail to improve their rotation and fade from contention in August, you can be sure the NY press will crucify them for not offering more. The Yankees are the desperate party in this deal, not the M's. Our fate is decided. They should have been willing to significantly overpay. I think they weren't because the M's have a reputation in recent years of being suckers. I'm glad to see that change. It has nothing to do with the Yankees as an organization. I just don't want to see the M's fold a strong hand. Getting rid of Washburn's salary isn't enough for me to get all tingly over, and that option will still exist for another month.

Posted by Chris from Bothell

12:57 PM, Aug 01, 2008

scottM, BrianL, Donovan - spot-on, all around.

Posted by scottM

1:04 PM, Aug 01, 2008

"I'd bet my next 2 paychecks on the fact that if this was the year the Guillen played for the M's, we would be almost as bad"

Stango,

The esteemed members of the JOSÉ GUILLEN SOCIETY have discussed this telepathically, and, since the chemically-charged José Guillen was the only offensive player change for the M's from 2007 to 2008, and the team took a precipitous nosedive at the plate, we'd like you to send your sizable wages for those next two paychecks to:

Frankie, President
The José Guillen Society
c/o The Ledge
NY, NY 10001

Posted by Ura Hack

1:21 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Everyone realizes Washburn's value to the Yankees goes down each day, right? Each day without him, the Yankees to not gain on the teams in front of them, and each day Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes get healthier, and each day Carl Pavano can get into the mix.

Washburn has his maximum value right now. If the M's have a brain, they will immediately waive him. I wouldn't be surprised if they already have. Every day they wait could end up costing them millions of dollars for someone they can't use. Does the name RIchie Sexson ring a bell?

Posted by scottM

1:22 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Faceplant: You're correct, a platoon of LaHair/Ibanez at 1B makes no sense. My mistake. Ibanez could be the fourth corner OF or backup at 1B, though. Our '09 Willie with way more power and way less range.


from DownOnStrikes: "scottM, very few of this current group of players seems embarrassed by their play and intensity."

I still think most of this team has been highly embarrassed by this season. No matter how much money you make, it sucks to play on a last place team. We just need more clubhouse fire (Guillen) and a firm skipper who expects the team to show up every game. In this, I see them playing a notch better under Riggleman. Compare our last five games with that road trip shellacking from the Tigers and Yankees in May and there is a world of difference in intensity. In 2008 we've started with high expectations and low performance, in 2009 it will be the opposite. I'd bet my next two paychecks on it (except that I'm self-employed).

Posted by Walrus

1:24 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Geoff,
I think you are mostly correct on the Washburn scenario...up until the end. I believe the M's were playing hardball with the Yankees hoping for more,
BUT still intended on making the deal with the Yankees at the end...similar to Rhodes.
I believe this is also true with the Ibanez to Toronto trade.
THEN the MANNY trade took place....and it became known that MANNY would be a free agent at the end of the year.
The M's FO does not want to have enough money to pay for Manny, so thus they are keeping Washburn and Ibanez, as well as Bedard and other high salaries.

Posted by Polite

1:43 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Geoff,

What are the chances Jose Lopez could be converted to 3B? He seems to be coming on again as a nice offensive player, but his defense at 2B -- especially his limited range -- is a drawback. Just from the eyeball test, Lopez doesn't exactly strike me as a 3B, but it seems like it could be a much better long-term fit for him and it would help the team unload Beltre and get some quality prospects for him.

The failure to trade Ibanez is a real head scratcher. Very disappointing.

Also, I'm surprised I never heard mention of the M's moving a catcher (Jaime Burke, Rob Johnson?). Seems like that's the area of greatest depth for the M's, and many teams can use decent catching.

Posted by BrianL

1:48 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Polite -

Lopez doesn't have the reaction skills needed to be a good defensive third baseman, nor enough power to warrant it. The skills that make him an average to slightly-above average 2B would only translate into being a below average 3B.

No one is ready to play 3B in the system or looks to be available on the market for several years. The best option would be to offer Adrian Beltre a 2-3 season contract extension.

Posted by meagain

2:37 PM, Aug 01, 2008

The Mariners FO surely has many reasons, ane and inane, for what they do. But the Walrus post about not wanting to have enough money to pay Manny--now that's funny. I wish I'd thought of it.

Posted by Resin isn't Cheating

2:38 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Lopez doesn't have the reaction skills needed to be a good defensive third baseman, nor enough power to warrant it. The skills that make him an average to slightly-above average 2B would only translate into being a below average 3B.

Polite-I disagree with Brian's "scouting" analysis. Lopez's problem is range and speed at second base. His mistakes often happen when he is slow to run into a position to make a play on the ball. He has soft hands and a strong accurate arm.

Moving him to third will be a transition of mishandling line drives, but eventually I believe he can play third at a league average level. Lopez should easily reach his 20 home run potential within a year or two, and that is enough power at third base.

If you look at A-Rod's transition from short to third, he was brutal at third the first 2 years adjusting to the ball coming in quicker to his hands. He has become average in my opinion.

Posted by Walrus

2:49 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Meagain,
I was hoping to get feedback....that would have made it even more funny.

Posted by BrianL

2:50 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Resin isn't Cheating - Lopez hasn't shown anything that suggests he's capable of hitting 20 home runs a year.

He is and will be a huge downgrade from Beltre.

Since you're taking swipes at my "scouting," are you going to produce the scouting report that suggests Bryan LaHair can be an everyday 1B in the ML?

Posted by scottM

2:56 PM, Aug 01, 2008

RE: "the scouting report that suggests Bryan LaHair can be an everyday 1B in the ML?"

This assessment will occur in August and September of 2008. So far in July of 2008, BryanL is passing the test with flying colors, so much so I wish we'd brought him up sooner, dumped Sexson sooner. He's been far better than Clement or Balentien at the plate with the big team.

Posted by BrianL

3:04 PM, Aug 01, 2008

scottM - What I'm referring to are the minor league reports that detailed his troubles hitting off of LHP (I don't have the sheet in front of me, but it was something like a .180 BA). I've read other reports that suggest he's having trouble hitting the inside pitch.

I think he can be a decent platoon partner, but I don't think he's an everyday ML 1B based on his inability to hit lefthanders at the AAA level.

Remember, we're all high on LaHair right now based off of a 31 AB sample. You know who else looked good after 31 ABs? Rene Rivera.

We all know what a great player Rene Rivera was.

Posted by BrianL

3:15 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Nevermind, I found it.

This season in Tacoma LaHair hit .200/.277/.280 against LHP. To put it more simply, he had an OPS of .557 hitting off of left-handed pitchers. I'm still trying to track down his 2007 numbers, but they were pretty abysmal too.

LaHair has always struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, and there's little reason to think that this callup to the ML roster is going to magically allow him to hit lefties.

He's a decent platoon partner, but I doubt he amounts to anything more in the long-run.

Posted by Chris from Bothell

3:17 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Resin - Jose Lopez isn't A-Rod. A-Rod can be allowed to be brutal at 3rd for a couple years because his offense more than makes up for it. Does a .270 average, .300 OBP and "potential to get up to 20 home runs" give enough offense to give him 2 seasons or so to change positions?

Besides, his problems have been focus and discipline as much as the range issues you cite. Inattentive 2b = allows singles and doesn't turn double plays. Inattentive 3b = allows doubles and runs. And perhaps gets concussed by a line drive in the face. ;)

Posted by scottM

3:27 PM, Aug 01, 2008

BrianL,
You're probably right about LaHair, but he has looked poised and effective at the plate since his call-up. If he shows he can figure out LHP and RHP the rest of the way in '08 under the guidance of Elia, then we'll all consider him a great windfall.

As for Beltre, listening to these arguments, it makes me want to see us extend him now. Where's the better replacement. But, of course, that would give us all the more reason to want to bring José Guillen back, too, to make sure our investments in Beltre, Lopez and Yuni are maximized!!!

Posted by party4marty

3:34 PM, Aug 01, 2008

RE: LaHair

The good thing about LaHair struggling against LH pitchers....That there isnt as many LH pitchers, and since the Mariners are very RH heavy, he will likely see a lot of RH pitchers.

Posted by Chris from Bothell

3:40 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Wait - talking 2009 and Beltre - aren't we all forgetting about Mike Morse? Not a gold glove, but not a sack of hamburgers either.

Posted by disgusted

3:40 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Sadly, the INEPT, MORONIC management of the M's remains in place, and this team is on a rocket to nowhere, even worse than where they are at now.

We have Ichiro, rotting in a dungeon of mismanagement, sadly it looks like he will play out his career here for the PINHEADS who run the M's. Not that i want to see him go. It's just that a player of his class (and there are only a few) deserves MUCH better.

Like Ray Allen - trade him to a contender and let him enjoy a world series ring.

The M's are not going to get any better unless it's by accident. Despite annual assurances that 'we got it now!' M's management does not have a clue and is incapable of getting one.

Posted by Mike Schooler

3:54 PM, Aug 01, 2008

"most likeliest"?

Posted by Frankie

4:00 PM, Aug 01, 2008

LMAO scottM. nice comment before hahaha

Posted by bob

4:01 PM, Aug 01, 2008

The sad thing is that a Clement and Johnson platoon at catcher next year would have been fantastic, but again a bad contract with Johjima prevents that. It just goes to show that the Bavasi regime destroyed this franchise. And noone can blame Lee P or Riggleman for their failures.

It would be nice to see the Mariners drop Vidro, Cairo and bring up some kids much like the Twins and Nationals did today. Go younger and the sooner the better.

One positive I have seen from Riggleman is that he is playing players on the bench more frequently. One thing McLaren and Hargrove never did, illustrating the weaknesses of their managerial success and the use of younger talent that could have helped this team over the last few years.

Lou Pinella never did that and look what he did for Seattle. (Mclemore, Lampkin, Javier, A. Diaz, Strange, etc) He was an expert at using the others players to keep them sharp as well as the everyday starters.

Examples of the ineptitude of McLaren and Hargrove. Look at the at bats for Ben Broussard or any bench player last year as well as Cairo's use in April and May. Not to mention Bloomquist. (Though if you noticed WillieB has one extra base hit - very sad)

Posted by Resin isn't Cheating

4:01 PM, Aug 01, 2008

LaHair has always struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, and there's little reason to think that this callup to the ML roster is going to magically allow him to hit lefties.

Re: Platoons

This is another delusion of grandeur brought to you by sabermetrics.

Raul Ibanez hasn't been able to hit lefties most of his career , yet Ibanez, has been an everyday player for the M's and he played every day for the Royals.

I can post a long list of players in the league that can't hit lefties, and yet they have never platooned a day in their life,

In fact, I had an interesting read at the book store the other day. Hardball Times Annual 2008, and found an article that challenged the delusional thinking that platooning players provides a team an advantage in overall production.
The study showed there was no conclusive evidence that platooning players that can't hit lefties for instance is better than allowing a player to face lefties and righties over the course of the season.

I would argue that a player's numbers would suffer if they did not play every day facing live pitching against left-handed starters. Especially when you platoon a young player that needs to develop by playing every day.

Re: LaHair

Anyone that has watched LaHair play so far can tell Bryan is doing a fair job of handling big league pitching. His swing is not as slow as Sexson or Reed's. I would say he has average bat speed with good contact ability from what I have seen. LaHair still has 2 months to earn the position. I think he can do it.

Posted by Karen

4:02 PM, Aug 01, 2008

RE: Gordie's comment, first in line, about picturing Lee Pelekoudas throwing a tantrum...

I have a feeling not a whole lot of the negativity surrounding the past few days trying to deal Washburn, Ibanez, etc. had much to do with Lee Pelekoudas. I think there's STILL a lot too much interference from the HowardChuckLincolnArmstrong camp. News leaked out that Pelekoudas all but had Ibanez traded, but "someone" in the Mariners organization changed their mind at the last minute. Guess who? Not our interim GM, I'll bet.

Posted by fire_chuck_already

4:08 PM, Aug 01, 2008

The last thing a team like the Ms needs to worry about is 'who is going to be the last man on the bench'.

At least by not making any deals the new GM won't be saddled with junk from deals done by interim GM Lee.

Posted by bob

4:09 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Bat speed can be solved by sacrificing some power by choking up on the bat.

Though Barry Bonds is linked to steroids, he continually choked up on the bat for control.

Jeremy Reed, I believed was destroyed by Jeff Pentland and his desire to create power hitting pull hitters. They should have looked at old tape of Reed and viewed that.

I will defend Reed over Bloomquist or any bench player because he possesses gap power

Posted by meagain

4:13 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Psychoanalyzing the M's front office from a distance produces interesting results. The most astounding are the bi-cultural analysts, who know what goes on in the mind of an accomplished old man in Japan. I hope you're not doing yours by mind-probe, Karen. I'm reminded of Dr. Spock, his brow deeply furrowed, muttering "Pain...pain."

Posted by mclovin

4:22 PM, Aug 01, 2008

To think that any changes will occur between now and the end of August is a stretch. We will still have all of our players including Vidro and Cairo and our young guys will still be down in AAA. I dont see the M's doing anything until the Sept. call ups. And even then they will probably call up Wells instead of RRS.

"We hold all the cards and the Yankees are the ones that need the help" Seriously what cards do we really hold. A fat salary for a below average career pitcher. That's the best hand we have. No wonder why teams low balled us(if indeed we beleive the M's FO rhetoric on these matters)

When other front office execs are qutoes as saying the "M's are a train wreck," or "they don't seem to have anyone in charge" what does that say about our franchise? All the writers Stark, Baker, whoever can give all their opinions but the ones i hold true are the quotes from other baseball execs. Pretty hard to dismiss those sentiments.

Posted by Chris from Bothell

4:41 PM, Aug 01, 2008

meagain - You're thinking of Mr. Spock. Dr. Spock was the pediatrician.

Sorry to be pedantic, but as a resident scifi geek I couldn't let it go. ;)

Posted by meagain

4:45 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Yeah, and if I recall correctly, it was mind-meld, not mind-probe.

Two strikes in two days--yesterday it was confusing 1992 with 1995--I'm dangerously close to becoming irrelevant.

Posted by BrianL

5:06 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Resin isn't Cheating - I love how you can completely dodge my point and accuse me of saying something else. Yes, sabermetrics seem to think that LaHair should be platooned. So do scouts, people who only believe in counting stats, and anyone who looks at his splits.

For the record, I think Ibanez should be platooned. He historically has struggled against lefties. Your argument is that since Raul isn't being platooned, neither should LaHair. That is silly. Both players should be platooned if they can't hit lefties.

Did I make an argument at any point in time that Raul shouldn't be platooned? I don't believe I did. You're putting words in my mouth, and I'm not quite sure where I even gave you the ammunition to do so.

Furthermore, the basis your entire analysis on 31 ML at-bats.

31.

Mostly against Texas.

Yes, the team with one of the worst pitching staffs in the game.

(Oh, by the way, when are you going to produce that scouting report for me, Resin? You know, the one you claim proves the "statheads" wrong?)

I question your judgment on a good deal of analysis, Resin. It seems as if your only goal is to look at what position Dave Cameron, Jeff Sullivan, Matthew Carruth, or Bill James takes and oppose it. Did Dave bully you on the playground when you were younger? All I ever sense when you talk baseball is vehement opposition and irrational disdain for the hard work they put into their respective sites.

The USSM and LL are a great resource for alternative baseball analysis, heck even Peter Gammons and Dave Grosby (two noted staunch traditionalists) lists it as one of their favorite blogs to check up on. Grosby even calls Dave Cameron on for radio spots every few weeks.

However, if you're too closed-minded to objectively read what they have to say, why don't you ignore it entirely? Your hate for every form of analysis that isn't written on the back of a baseball card (I think that's how you posed it on your old website) has really clouded your judgment and ability to remain rational. You don't see me ripping apart traditional scouting. Why is that?

I believe a good front office should use both traditional scouting -and- sabermetrics. Both are wonderful tools that can shed a lot of light into the murky gray areas of player evaluation. When used in tandem, wonderful results can be achieved.

This isn't some "Us vs. them" war. I've never advocated to do away with traditional scouting. Neither has Dave, Jeff, Matthew, Mike, or Adam. You seem to think that it can only be one way or the other, it's either a traditional approach or it's a Moneyball approach. That's your problem when it comes to analysis, I've noticed. With you, it is always black or white.

I encourage you, step back and look at the big picture rationally. More and more teams are incorporating a sabermetric approach. Why else has Bill James secured a job with the Boston Red Sox? Why is it that the Rays have completed a remarkable turnaround since hiring Andrew Friedman? There are new ways to look at players, and when these new methods are paired with the old methods, good things happen.

Now, you can take this information to heart, or you can simply ignore it and put more words in my mouth. Your vendetta against statistical analysis is bordering on becoming utterly irrational.

I'll say it again: statistical analysis and traditional scouting can and should coexist.

Posted by Karen

5:10 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Actually, meagain, I have no idea what you're talking about.

THAT'S how skilled I am at mind-melding. Spock, spock.

Posted by Top pick in 09 draft

5:51 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Art Thiel's book of a few years back, Out of Left Field, is great reading for an insight into how Mr. Yamauchi operates his business and his mandate to Lincoln that any dealings with Japanese players is his & only his domain. This clearly explains the context behind the inexplicable extension given to Joh for three years to a catcher hitting less than .200 at the time. Anyway, I remain hopeful that either the team is sold to local ownership (preferably) or that Mr. Y will pay more attention to the team's on-field performance as nobody should enjoy being humiliated like they are this season.

Posted by 11Records

5:51 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Stupid Sidney Ponson is pitching his fat ass off against the Angels tonight. 2 hits in 6 innings? No runs.

That's not doing the M's any favours.

Posted by Walla Walla Girl

7:00 PM, Aug 01, 2008

I'm LMAO too, scottM and Frankie! That was funny (1:04 PM post)!

Bring Jose Guillen back. See scottM's excellent comment of 11:39 AM.

Walla Walla Girl, member
JOSÉ GUILLEN SOCIETY

Posted by Go Pilots

7:06 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Some one tell me why oh why Jose Vidro is playing DH tonight? His BA is only slightly better than Lahairs minor league numbers against lefties.

Posted by Chris from Bothell

7:12 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Since we're into quoting books and scouting reports at each other, I remembered that "The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball", did some analysis of platoon effects.

Among their conclusions, after statistical study of hitters in the 2000 - 2004 seasons: 'Player to player variations are more important for pitchers than hitters. ... A good hitter with an average platoon split is generally better than an average hitter with an unusually large platoon split.'

Which seems to support Resin's stance that platooning is overrated, and an overall good hitter is more important than pasting together one guy for lefties and one guy for righties.

Posted by BrianL

7:20 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Chris from Bothell - To a certain extent, this is true.

However, LaHair poses a problem because he is -exceptionally- bad against lefthanders. For most players, a bad platoon split looks something like .230/.300/.350

In LaHair's case, that bad platoon split looks more like .190/.260/.280.

That's almost an automatic out. For most players, I could see an argument being made to let them play every day. In LaHair's case, however, that's simply giving away too many outs.

Posted by nodiggity

7:30 PM, Aug 01, 2008

If the decision to continue to keep Jose Vidro on this team was to see if you can get rid of him during the trade deadline, fine. But it's already August; yet not only is he still on this team, but he is now stealing at bats away from other players. The mindset of management from top to bottom just confounds me time and time again. UGH.

Posted by Bill

7:54 PM, Aug 01, 2008

How come no one has replaced Rhodes on the roster? Why is Vidro still here?

Posted by Scanman

8:14 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Wlad just hit a three run shot, # 17. Lee, are you paying attention?

Posted by scottM

8:26 PM, Aug 01, 2008

I'm not for blatant homerism (unless it's on the Simpsons), but why does Dave Simms always sound way more excited when the other team gets a hit than when the M's do?????

I hope Kevin Calabro gets tired of soccer real quick and the M's are smart enough to bring him on board. GEOFF Baker, who does a fine job on KJR-AM, can take Mike Blowers place. PLEEEEEEZ.

Posted by Bill

8:28 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Why is LaHair in a platoon with Miguel Cairo? I can understand platooning him because he can't hit lefties, but when the other half of the platoon is Miguel Cairo it's hard to justify. Cairo is hitting .250 against lefties this year.

Posted by Mariners FO.

8:31 PM, Aug 01, 2008

WHY do you Bloggers keep asking intelligent questions?

Posted by scottM

8:32 PM, Aug 01, 2008

OMG. Is Washburn reverting to form now that he's not showcasing himself? Let's give him a rider on this outing––after all, who scheduled a night game 2500 miles away on one night and another night game the next day.

Or is this the continued curse of the O's over the M's?

Posted by Jeff in Dodge City

8:35 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Boy, it's a good thing we shipped out Adam Jones!

Posted by Ragarm

8:39 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Going on now, the battle of the cellar titans. And the Orioles are ahead 7 zip.

Not wasting my time anymore on this team. I just check the score when there isn't an active game blog and weep for those in the stands seeing such a group of pathetic losers.

Posted by Jeff in Dodge City

8:39 PM, Aug 01, 2008

I haven't kept up here lately but I do remember seeing some discussions on the centerfield issue. What I was surprised to not see was someone bringing up the fact that we HAD a centerfielder but "gave" him away for some pitcher named Bedard. What a waste. I need to stick another pin in my Bavasi doll!

Posted by tom

8:40 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Ichiro, what a POS you are. An easy out (Huffs) you couldnt make. You re accountable for all the Orioles runs (6) in the 5th. I guess you dont like Jarrod

Posted by Miles

8:47 PM, Aug 01, 2008

You know, I gave the M's the benefit of the doubt the last month with their insistence on playing underperforming veterans. I figured I could see the logic in giving them the chance to shine so that we might be able get something rather than nothing. So I didn't demand they DFA guys like Sexson, Vidro, etc.

Well the trade deadline is gone. There is absolutely no reason to have Cairo and Vidro in the lineup tonight. Zero. Zip. None. Those guys aren't going to be here next year. If they want to keep them around until the end of the year for bench help or give them the occasional start to rest someone else, go for it. But for a team with this many needs to give AB's to those guys while Balentien, Diaz, LaHair, and others need to be evaluated it absolutely stupid. Riggleman needs to be told that it's time to play the kids, even if it means the Win/Loss record isn't as good.

And the media, including Geoff, need to be asking this same question.

Posted by Jeff in Dodge City

8:48 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Is anyone in the M's organization even remotely embarrassed that this is the best product they can put on the field? Even a twinge of embarrassment?

Posted by Sounders

8:57 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Geoff,

Bagging the game threads, eh? I like it. What's the point?

Orioles-9, GOOF-0.

Need I say more?

Posted by The Mariners FO.

8:57 PM, Aug 01, 2008

There can't be anything wrong with our product, just look at our attendance numbers!!

Posted by Adam

9:01 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Aaaaaand Jarrod Washburn's return to the mean begins.


Sure, we failed to trade him when his value was the highest. Sure, his value can only go down. Sure, Sidney Ponson pitched great tonight.


But it would have been criminal to get anything less than a premium prospect from the Yankees, right Mr. Pelekoudas?

Posted by BrianL

9:01 PM, Aug 01, 2008

tom - Yes, the insane amount of flyballs and line drives, the pitches left over the heart of the plate, and the walks had nothing to do with all of those runs on the scoreboard. All six runs are Ichiro's fault for not diving for a ball and instead choosing to guarantee the ball stayed in front of hum.

Ichiro is awful.

/sarcasm.

Posted by BrianL

9:03 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Adam - I've got a feeling Lee was hamstrung by the higher-ups.

Regardless, we probably should have dumped him before the deadline to anyone willing to take his salary off our hands.

Once again this club shows they're incapable of evaluating pitching talent.

Posted by Adam

9:06 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Yeah, maybe Lincoln and Armstrong are to blame.


I don't really care. They are all incompetent idiots.

Posted by Sounders

9:13 PM, Aug 01, 2008

I am Dumbfounded! Look at that crowd! Is there some free ticket giveaway I haven't heard about? There's supporting your team thru bad years and then there's throwing away your money, getting in the ass, and by continuing to go to games telling the FO that the unimaginable level of suckiness is "Far out, man."

Posted by bob

9:14 PM, Aug 01, 2008

9-0 Orioles
4-1 Mariners trading any players for anything
2-0 Vidro & Cairo still in Mariner uniforms.

By the way, due we have Carlos Silva for 2 more years or three more years.

If three years, then we are 2-0, seeing Johjima and Silva in Mariner uniforms only to hamstring young talent in this organization.

Posted by The Mariners FO.

9:26 PM, Aug 01, 2008

We’ve never hamstrung anyone! [Hey Howard, does holding a gun to Lee’s wife’s’ head count as hamstringing?]

Posted by Dave

9:29 PM, Aug 01, 2008

My oh F'n My! If they would only trade me....

Posted by NailedCoffin

9:32 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Guess Geoff got a case of carpal tunnel deleting all of the negative posts that kept coming yesterday and today....(turns out they were mostly right, eh!).......Take the rest of the year off Geoff.....no need for discussion anymore

Posted by The Mariners FO.

9:32 PM, Aug 01, 2008


Hey Howard I think we can get Simms at about 1/3 of what we are paying Dave, what do you think?

Posted by the Mariners FO.

9:39 PM, Aug 01, 2008


Chuck, would you look at all the Bozo’s we put in here tonight. What a bunch of idiots. Hey Lee, get us some more Rally Fries and be quick about it. { That boy is so slow]

Posted by BWare

9:39 PM, Aug 01, 2008

BrianL:

For someone who proclaims mastery of the saber, you certainly went to great lengths to belie the art of efficiency in the dissertation below. I would've thought that a saber-master could say 1,000 words with one metric.

Sorry, just wish that you'd make your point a bit more reader friendly and/or email Resin personally. It's not just you and him who benefit from the blogging experience.

Just my .02 (and not worth a penny more)...

*****

"Resin isn't Cheating - I love how you can completely dodge my point and accuse me of saying something else. Yes, sabermetrics seem to think that LaHair should be platooned. So do scouts, people who only believe in counting stats, and anyone who looks at his splits.

For the record, I think Ibanez should be platooned. He historically has struggled against lefties. Your argument is that since Raul isn't being platooned, neither should LaHair. That is silly. Both players should be platooned if they can't hit lefties.

Did I make an argument at any point in time that Raul shouldn't be platooned? I don't believe I did. You're putting words in my mouth, and I'm not quite sure where I even gave you the ammunition to do so.

Furthermore, the basis your entire analysis on 31 ML at-bats.

31.

Mostly against Texas.

Yes, the team with one of the worst pitching staffs in the game.

(Oh, by the way, when are you going to produce that scouting report for me, Resin? You know, the one you claim proves the "statheads" wrong?)

I question your judgment on a good deal of analysis, Resin. It seems as if your only goal is to look at what position Dave Cameron, Jeff Sullivan, Matthew Carruth, or Bill James takes and oppose it. Did Dave bully you on the playground when you were younger? All I ever sense when you talk baseball is vehement opposition and irrational disdain for the hard work they put into their respective sites.

The USSM and LL are a great resource for alternative baseball analysis, heck even Peter Gammons and Dave Grosby (two noted staunch traditionalists) lists it as one of their favorite blogs to check up on. Grosby even calls Dave Cameron on for radio spots every few weeks.

However, if you're too closed-minded to objectively read what they have to say, why don't you ignore it entirely? Your hate for every form of analysis that isn't written on the back of a baseball card (I think that's how you posed it on your old website) has really clouded your judgment and ability to remain rational. You don't see me ripping apart traditional scouting. Why is that?

I believe a good front office should use both traditional scouting -and- sabermetrics. Both are wonderful tools that can shed a lot of light into the murky gray areas of player evaluation. When used in tandem, wonderful results can be achieved.

This isn't some "Us vs. them" war. I've never advocated to do away with traditional scouting. Neither has Dave, Jeff, Matthew, Mike, or Adam. You seem to think that it can only be one way or the other, it's either a traditional approach or it's a Moneyball approach. That's your problem when it comes to analysis, I've noticed. With you, it is always black or white.

I encourage you, step back and look at the big picture rationally. More and more teams are incorporating a sabermetric approach. Why else has Bill James secured a job with the Boston Red Sox? Why is it that the Rays have completed a remarkable turnaround since hiring Andrew Friedman? There are new ways to look at players, and when these new methods are paired with the old methods, good things happen.

Now, you can take this information to heart, or you can simply ignore it and put more words in my mouth. Your vendetta against statistical analysis is bordering on becoming utterly irrational.

I'll say it again: statistical analysis and traditional scouting can and should coexist."

Posted by Kelly

9:43 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Washburn's performance is great news, as long as it means we get a completely new FO next year.

Posted by BrianL

9:43 PM, Aug 01, 2008

BWare - If that bothered you so much, why did you just repost it in its entirety?

Posted by BWare

9:51 PM, Aug 01, 2008

BL:

It has a visual context that mere words cannot completely capture.

I know that sounds ironic, but I hope that helps...

Posted by knutsack

9:52 PM, Aug 01, 2008

double play kenji johjima

Posted by The Mariners FO.

9:54 PM, Aug 01, 2008


Howard,Lee, get in here and bring the Spin Doctors with you. We’ve got a little problem with Washburn. Let’s glorify his image a little so they won’t notice his bad outing tonight.

Posted by BrianL

9:55 PM, Aug 01, 2008

BWare - If you felt that was a problem, you could have taken your own advice and e-mailed me. That's neither here nor there.

Posted by BWare

9:59 PM, Aug 01, 2008

BL:

Yeah - I contemplated that, and I consciously chose not to.

You got the last word, my friend...

Posted by Dave is coasting

10:04 PM, Aug 01, 2008

I would suppose that after tonite's game, Washburn's trade value isn't quite what it was a few days ago? It's the 9th now, and the M's are scoring, yes, but on little squibbers combined with bad defensive plays. And the M's have just lost it, 10-5. It's quite a year, isn't it? It was a shutout until the 9th inning. The M's are Twisting In The Wind.

Posted by The Mariners FO.

10:04 PM, Aug 01, 2008


Hey Howard would you look at that rally, no need to call any one up from Tacoma now.

Posted by Chris from Bothell

10:15 PM, Aug 01, 2008

I knew Washburn would give up when he didn't get moved. All the Ichiro Is Selfish people should take a good long look at Jarrod. Lights-out when he's auditioning for another team or gets his own personal catcher; can't be bothered when he's not getting what he wants and has to pitch to Joh. Bloody sad.

Posted by BrianL

10:16 PM, Aug 01, 2008

I think we have tomorrow's hitting plan.

Hit the ball to Fahey.

Posted by Bill

10:31 PM, Aug 01, 2008

I thought that was a very makeable play for Ichiro in the 5th. It didn't look to me like he would have had to dive...maybe just charged it a little harder and he would have been there. Inning over.


The one that went over Reed's head...that was just misjudged. Tough play, though because it was hit right at him.

Posted by Walla Walla Girl

10:41 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Hmmmmm, that game wasn't worth watching if you're an M's fan. Washburn: back to the future. Zero (0) runs scored.

Someone (the Orioles) finally freed Adam Jones.

Bagheads: Your work is not finished. Purge the FO.

Posted by getonit

10:48 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Anyone one on this roster would kill to get moved to another team especially one that is a contender. Washburn didn't look great tonight but one can only speculate if he could have pitched himself out of that jam maybe only giving up a total of 4 or 5 runs.

Its always nice to get pulled from a game and have the reliever serve up a triple. Not too mention giving up an additional three runs with 2 outs.

Posted by Dave (all M'd Out)

10:55 PM, Aug 01, 2008

If a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it, does it make a sound? Following that logic, if there's a baseball game and no one watches it, did a game take place? Well, of course the game will happen, but I'm thinking about Not Watching The M's Any More. Instead I'd opt for games on ESPN, WGN, and WTBS if my cable provider has it. For the M's, this season has Formally Ended on the First of August. Actually, it probably ended before that.

Posted by Sounders

10:55 PM, Aug 01, 2008

All the saber v non-saber, pro-Ichiro v anti-Ichiro, trade v non-trade arguments are irrelevant. We're talking about The Seattle GOOF here. They could have last years Red Sox lineup and find a way to screw it up and end up in last place.

Total Purge Now!! That means you Howie and Chuckie! Carve out the tumor! Major Surgery Now!

Posted by Sounders

11:17 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Dave,

It ended when Lou and Pat left. It's been downhill since

Posted by Sounders

11:23 PM, Aug 01, 2008

If you have a cancer (Howie and Chuckie) in an organism (The Seattle GOOF) the best option if possible is to cut it out.
Less drastic measures like chemotherapy (throwing money around) don't really cure the patient, they just allow the sick person to stumble along for a few more years

Posted by jake4three

11:43 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Too many posts for me to read, but I will say this. The waiver wire is close to what most of you are saying. According the ESPN and the BBTN crew, if an American League player is put on waivers, the worst National League team gets the first crack on him if they put in a claim. So, if the Yankees put some of their minor leaguers on the 40-man roster on the waiver wire, the Nationals would have the first chance to take him.

The other thing that is driving me nuts is the whole trading a catcher idea. Yes, catcher is perceived as a strength of the Mariners, but there is only one, maybe two guys tradable. No one will take Johjima and his salaray. No one will trade for Burke because he has no value to a good team. He is a singles hitter that is slow as molasses and if he was good enough defensively, he would have more than 400 major league at bats by now. We are not going to trade Jeff Clement, so there's no point in talking about it. Why would someone trade for Rob Johnson at the trade deadline? No contending team needs a minor league catcher for their stretch run. I'm not saying that he doesn't have any potential, but not to be traded right now. The second-best catcher we have is Adam Moore (.324, 11 HR, 59 RBI), but he isn't close enough yet to factor in. So please, stop talking about how the Mariners should have traded Johjima or Burke or Johnson. There is no need to trade for them.

Posted by ken

11:44 PM, Aug 01, 2008

Third game in a row that Yuni didn't get off the bench - even didn't p/r Yuni for Bloomquist when Willie came up limping beating out a bleeder in the 9th. I think Yuni may get a chance to play himself out of the doghouse perhaps Sunday - will be interesting to see if he swings at the first pitch he sees. If he does, my guess is he will be in Tacoma by next week. A standing ovation if he lays down a successful sacrifice bunt.

Posted by I.was.right..again......

2:01 AM, Aug 02, 2008

**sigh** ....Pelekoudas never had any real authority to make major trades.....if a deal came up they couldn't refuse, then of course he would be allowed to pull the trigger. Of course they are not going to make any major trades before new ownership takes over. I'm not surprised there was no movement. What surprises me is that these sports writers actually thought there would be...... obviously not very business savvy.

Posted by Ura Hack

4:12 AM, Aug 02, 2008

Geoff, are you going to 'fess up to posting faxes from the front office under your byline?

Posted by 11Records

5:26 AM, Aug 02, 2008

So - when they call RRS up to take Rhodes' roster spot, shouldn't they push Miguel to the pen? I mean, they sent RRS down to work as a starter, and he's done tremendously well. Meanwhile, Batista has an ERA as a starter of nearly 7. And more walks than strikeouts. And a WHIP of 1.89.

Furthermore, Dickey seems to have earned another start. It makes more sense to evaluate Dickey and RRS as starters the rest of the year...

That said - even if Miguel starts on Monday, RRS should still get to throw 4 or 5 innings.

This team is depressing.

Way to not offload Wash's salary when his value was at it's peak. He's now totally extraneous as you can go into next season with Felix, Bedard, RRS, Dickey, and Morrow; plus the bloated contracts of Miguel and Carlos Silva. Plus Ryan Feierabend! That's 8 starters (including 3 lefties) who are either better than Wash or utterly unmovable.

Oh - and one little postscript - Balentien drove in 5 runs tonight. So, please, please, please cut Vidro, let Wlad play LF and move Raul to DH for the rest of the year.

Posted by Dale

7:00 AM, Aug 02, 2008

I don't think you really know what you're talking about, ya putz.

Posted by downonstrikes

7:44 AM, Aug 02, 2008

24 hours and no new thread. Looks like the entire writing staff died of boredom. Or did FO close them down due to the truth being told here?

Posted by Ragarm

7:55 AM, Aug 02, 2008

"My reaction was, 'Great,'" said Rhodes about being traded from the Mariners to the Marlins"

Washout would have said that too, if only he had been traded before his value plummeted last night.

Posted by downonstrikes

8:16 AM, Aug 02, 2008

The ST should let the posters run this blog, I guess. We could come up with new threads like "Old CEO's Need To Know When to Retire," or "Absentee Ownership Laughs at Fans," or "FO is Dyslexic, Read the Plan Backwards"

Posted by ricofoy

8:22 AM, Aug 02, 2008

Let's get one thing straight right now regarding the Washburn situation and the Yankees. Brian Cashman is most definitely not the idiot. And anyone who thinks that, particularly when compared to the M's own dysfunctional, worst in the league FO is,well, an idiot. No offense.

Posted by Adam G

8:33 AM, Aug 02, 2008

Arthur Rhodes Trade:

Are you kidding me, not that Rhodes is worth a whole lot but I don't know many double A pitchers with an ERA of 6 1/2 that turn out to be quality major league players. This is the difference between the M's and other teams. We trade prospects like David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Derek Lowe, etc and when we're selling off veterans we get guys like Gaby Hernandez with his 6 1/2 ERA. This isn't just a few starts where a guy gets knocked around it's a seasons worth. These guys are killing me!!!!!!

Posted by James from Walla Walla

8:46 AM, Aug 02, 2008

ATTENTION ALL MARINERS FANS!!!

YOU ARE WATCHING THE WORST MARINER TEAM EVER!! OH, HIGHEST PAID AS WELL!!

The OVERPAID underperforming Mariners are going to mail it in the rest of the way. Now that we can't trade their sorry asses, look for them to SIT on them and collect their BIG bucks!

It astounds me that 28,000+ fans went to watch such a team??? The Players and Organization do not deserve such loyal fans!

We were up against a #5 left handed starter at best. We had our best pitcher going for us according to our pitching coach? S0, how did the score end up 10-1 in favor of Baltimore in the 8th?? Note, A bearly in the majors left hander hold us to 1 for most of the game. Pathetic!!

Now that Washburn is not going to be traded watch how he pitches the rest of the season. We could have dumped him and his overblown salary on the Yankees. But NO, we had to ask for prospects as well. I do not blame the Yankees for not taking the deal! I submit that it is business as usually in the front office. I think 110+ Losses
are where this team ends up at years end.

Another SAD day in Mudville for us Mariner Fans!!


Posted by Top pick in 09 draft

8:50 AM, Aug 02, 2008

Only race I am really watching during these dog days is the three-way race between the M's, Nationals, and Padres for next year's #1. If we "win" and earn the right to draft Strasburg, take up to a year off what now looks like a 3-year rebuilding process. A front-threesome of Felix, Strasburg, Aumont or possibly Morrow gets my heart pounding. I don't expect JJ to be around by age 34 so Morrow will probably be our closer long-term. Nationals just released several underperforming geezers and are going young for the rest of this season however we continue to throw out Vidro and Joh everyday - both will only get worse as they get tired so by Sept. both should be below the Mendoza Line.

Posted by aBROCKalypse

9:18 AM, Aug 02, 2008

Bah, let someone claim Washburn off waivers. Money goes off the books. Besides, we missed any real trade value by not getting it done before the July 31 "deadline" anyways

Posted by KV

9:19 AM, Aug 02, 2008

Geoff - You should get a hefty raise for having to cover this train wreck day in and day out...I hope you get it...and I hope next season lasts longer than end of May! I'll always follow the Mariners but they need to figure things out this off-season and get back to playing competitive ball. It's not looking promising with the Angels as strong as they are...I mean, what are the Angels doing that the Mariners aren't? Money doesn't appear to be an obstacle...just ranting is all...luckily I have only 4 more games to go this season!

Posted by Z.V. Sanders

9:31 AM, Aug 02, 2008

Even if the Mariners do get the picks from Ibanez, do you really trust them to use them wisely? Heck, I dont even trust the organization to pick the right GM for the deal (holding out for DePodesta).

Posted by BF Loser

9:40 AM, Aug 02, 2008

Geoff,

No in-game or post-game thread? Have you finally had enough and given up like the rest of the Ms?

Posted by The Mariners FO.

9:44 AM, Aug 02, 2008

Good Morning Chuck,……….Good morning Howard. Hey Howard I was thinking that football is just around the corner and we could use a new late season promotion. How about a FREE WALLA WALLA- BUCKY JACAOBSON- ONION NIGHT! Well, lets see what Lee thinks.

Posted by The Mariners FO.

10:07 AM, Aug 02, 2008


Hey Howard have you seen Lee? That boy is so slow. Lee, Leeee you can unlock the door and let Geoff out of the bathroom now.

Posted by downonstrikes

10:41 AM, Aug 02, 2008

KV, why should Geoff get a hefty raise? It looks like he has given up on the M's, left town on Amtrack, and sought sanctuary in Canada.

Posted by zDawg

10:47 AM, Aug 02, 2008

James in WW-

About 27,500 of those 28,000 had already bought tickets earlier in the season and are now stuck with them.

Since nobody will buy them on the street for even half of face value, they go instead of throwing them away.

Posted by M's Fan

10:49 AM, Aug 02, 2008

How about :DFA for Burke and Vidro.
Bring up Rob Johnson and let him and Clement share Catching/DH duties as they did at Tacoma. Send Adam Moore up to Tacoma. One of these guys is going to have to be moved. The time to showcase is now. The games at this point are meaningless. Bring up and play the young talent and let them sink or swim. No need to wait until the September call up.

Posted by wag the dog

10:50 AM, Aug 02, 2008

I have a question for those who think this team is close to contention and that we just need to pick up another bat or two (or three): Who, specifically, do you think we should try to sign and why do you think we're going to have a chance of actually landing your target player?

It's easy to say we can sign some stud free agents, but if history is any indication, it's a lot easier said than done. I think it will be tough for the Mariners to sign ONE quality bat, let alone three. Which free agent is going to want to come to a team that, among other things, 1) hasn't been to the playoffs in 7 years 2) is coming off a season in which the wheels came completely off 3) plays half it's games in a pitching friendly park thereby almost assuring that this free agent will see his numbers take a nose dive.

What the Mariners have been able to accomplish in the past is overpaying for mediocre free agents that added little, and more often than not, actually hurt the club.

Yes, the Mariners have a big enough budget that they can be players in the free agent market. But I don't think you focus on young, inexpensive guys just because they're cheap. You focus on them because they're talented and they're under club control for several seasons meaning they can't bolt in free agency for a more hitter friendly (or family friendly, or whatever) place.

So, rather than generalizing about how the Mariners could just sign a few free agents and be right back in it (which, btw, is exactly what they've tried to do the last 7 years with ZERO success), please tell us who, specifically, you envision the Mariners signing this offseason. What position will this person play and how will they fit into the overall lineup? And what is it about these 2 or 3 players that will force the Mariners back on track? How much do you envision the Mariners having to pay for these players and is the money really still available if you've got guys like Washburn still on the books. (Last night, with nothing to pitch for, he was the Jared Washburn we've been stuck with the last several season - mediocre. Talk about me first. Washburn plays hard when it's convenient to him. Now that the carrot of going to the Yankees isn't nearly as close to him, he stinks, potentially scuttling the opportunity to still trade him as a salary dump.)

Posted by BrianL

11:13 AM, Aug 02, 2008

wag the dog -

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/7/10/568528/contend-in-09-filling-out

Something to keep in mind, though. This team really doesn't need a ton of Type-A free agents to contend next season. What they really need to do is jettison the players who are performing below replacement-level* numbers and sign players who are just league-average (anything above that is fantastic) to replace them.

Posted by ricofoy

11:40 AM, Aug 02, 2008

Funny post by Mariners FO...lol I've always liked Burnett..ever since I caught the tail end of his no-hitter when he walked 9 guys. I don't trust him to stay healthy though. In fact I don't trust any of the players mentioned. It'll most likely be a year like this one or maybe they'll get lucky and get to 500. In any case, they won't be within 15 games of the Angels. It's lunacy to not throw away 09 and 10. All they should be concerned about right now is to get Felix signed long-term.

Posted by BrianL

11:55 AM, Aug 02, 2008

ricofoy - Teams with the kind of payroll Seattle has don't need to blow up and rebuild from the ground up. Our problem since 2004 has been that we've blown money on the wrong players.

Hire the right GM, and this team can compete in 2009.

Posted by youmustbekidding

11:56 AM, Aug 02, 2008

Good luck getting somebody to pay that $14 million AND give the M's a top prospect for Jarrod Wasburn!

Posted by Sounders

11:58 AM, Aug 02, 2008

After the Mac and Billy cannings I had some hope, but it's fading. The only thing that will get me interested at this point is if they manage to get Kim Ng or maybe DePodsta at GM. But it's appearing more and more likely that Howie and Chuckie are staying and I would bet that as long as they're running the show no competent GM will come here. And then no good players will come here. And round and round we go

Posted by The Mariners FO.

12:04 PM, Aug 02, 2008


Lee, Lee!!! Please let me out of here. {Okay Geoff, under the condition that you tell those Bloggers of yours to stop making sense and quite calling for our heads. Who ever said I couldn’t negotiate a deal.]

Posted by scottM

12:07 PM, Aug 02, 2008

wag the dog:

THE JOSÉ GUILLEN SOCIETY worries that you haven't been paying attention to the many insightful posts on this very same thread that is now 30 hours old and seems never to be updated by GEOFF and the Seattle Times. It may come as a surprise to you, but THE JOSÉ GUILLEN SOCIETY believes that JOSÉ GUILLEN is the solution for one of the corner outfield positions. He has better range in LF than Raul, a fine arm, a bat that in 2007 for the M's produced 99 RBIs, .290 avg. and a 116+ OPS. Half of those at-bats came at the Safe, so it's not a problem here for José. He was a catalyst in the clubhouse, and an undeniable part of bringing an edge to an otherwise too complacent, too lackluster team.

How to acquire Señor Guillen? Simple. Offer to take over his contract from the KCRoyals who would likely be pleased to oblige. Or, trade Carlos Silva straight up for Guillen.

DH: Sign Raul Ibanez.

CF: Look for another FA outfielder with a power bat and decent defense. Move Ichiro back to Center if necessary. If no FA acquisition is possible, then Jeremy Reed is a plus CF defender and a minus, but adequate bat.

1B: Be open to a FA acquisition, OR, if LaHair shows he can keep producing at the plate in '08, he is our windfall answer there.

Catcher: Give Clement the opportunity to show that his sweet swing will serve him well at the plate in '09. Johjima will be his regular backup to keep the heat on (or to see if his pull hitting bat wakes up in '09.)

Start with JOSÉ GUILLEN!!

signed,
THE JOSÉ GUILLEN SOCIETY

Posted by Ron

12:09 PM, Aug 02, 2008

Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think the waiver rule applies to Washburn going to Yankees.

As long as Washburn clears waivers, the waiver rule doesn't really matter because we are the worst team in AL, and thus should have the first crack at claiming any prospects that Yankees or anybody put on the waiver.

Posted by ancient mariner

12:30 PM, Aug 02, 2008

The new GM will likely have more success in dumping some of these bloated contracts for old non-performers.

Posted by downonstrikes

12:34 PM, Aug 02, 2008

Geoff got laid by Erica Bedard last night and he is so much out of energy he can't write three paragraphs and start a new thread. Oh my oh my.

And some people think Erica is worthless.

Posted by bongo

12:35 PM, Aug 02, 2008

I sense a Jose Guillen Haiku coming......

P.S.- Someone let Geoff out of the bathroom. Is Larry Stone in there too?

Posted by Walla Walla Girl

12:45 PM, Aug 02, 2008

Bring on the haiku. We need some entertainment.
Great post, scottM.
Get Guillen!

Walla Walla Girl, member
THE JOSÉ GUILLEN SOCIETY

Posted by scottM

12:49 PM, Aug 02, 2008

Haiku #16 (again, Bongo inspired)


José can you see
The M's need your chemistry
by Royal decree

Posted by scottM

1:39 PM, Aug 02, 2008

MEMO: 8/2/08
TO: All Members and wannabe members (like Bongo) of
the JOSÉ GUILLÉN SOCIETY
RE: JOSÉ GUILLÉN's return to Seattle

To generate increased awareness in the front offices of the Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals organizations, all GUILLENITES are encouraged to publicize the SOCIETY'S sole purpose and goal––the return of José Guillén in a Mariners uniform in 2009.

All official members (and you know who you are, Frankie and WallaWallaGirl) need to step the PR efforts. All closeted Sabermetric Guillenphiles (BrianL and Adam) need to post on saberblogs with statistical justification properly metricized. All scout-a-holics (Resin) need to work those human networks. Mr. X needs to stop picking on Ichiro for a bit and get on board the GUILLEN bandwagon.

Flooding the sports blogs of the Kansas City STAR is also highly recommended:

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/


Haiku #17 (for optimal National sports media exposure, this is best performed by WallaWallaGirl in a cheerleader's outfit, in Manhattan, twenty floors below where Frankie is standing.):

He's going to jump!
Unless they give us Guillen
No ledge, we want edge!

Posted by scottM

1:43 PM, Aug 02, 2008

Oh, and Frankie, for best effect, you need to wear your José Guillen jersey when out on the ledge. That way if you have to jump, the publicity will be optimized and you will know your sacrifice will not have been for naught.

THE JOSÉ GUILLÉN SOCIETY

Posted by bongo

1:47 PM, Aug 02, 2008

I'm in! But please hold up the performance until I can get on a flight to NY to watch.

Posted by GripS

1:47 PM, Aug 02, 2008

If Washburn goes back to a high ERA then I am convinced the only reason he has played well during the last couple months is to get traded. After last nights performance I highly doubt the Yankee's have ANY interest at taking on his salary any more. What Washburn may not realize is a team will not likely take on a player that will only pitch well when he gets what he wants.

Posted by Walla Walla Girl

1:57 PM, Aug 02, 2008

LOL!!!

Absolutely, scottM. You read my mind. We need to step up the PR promoting JOSÉ GUILLÉN's return to Seattle.

Somebody please tell JOSÉ GUILLÉN to please come home to Seattle.

All aboard the GUILLEN bandwagon!

Walla Walla Girl, dusting off cheerleader's uniform
THE JOSÉ GUILLÉN SOCIETY

Posted by The Jose Vidro Society

2:13 PM, Aug 02, 2008

For those who keep calling the FO executives idiots and the like, we would suggest that they are in fact geniuses. Albeit evil geniuses, but geniuses nonetheless. Consider this: They have successfully managed to put butts in the seats night after night in their stadium that they got paid for by taxpayers against the will of taxpayers. Of course, they agreed to pay the cost overruns, but they devised a plan to sell their stadium's name to the highest bidder, thus virtually off-setting any such costs and coming out smelling like the proverbial rose.

So they now have created a tourist attraction, and promote a circus like atmosphere at their ballpark. While banning "Yankees Suck" T-Shirts, lesbians, and anything that could possibly be considered offensive to the desired "wholesome family environment". All the while doing their damndest to stop booing, bagheads, and all other reactions that don't fall in line with their "enjoy the food, knitting, mosse, dancing grounds crew, cheer the players no matter what because they are TRYING" agenda. Fun for the whole family. Fun for the players. Fun for the FO. Fun for everyone except passionate, serious baseball fans.

While doing that, they have assembled/created one of the worst teams ever. This, coupled with their percieved mind-boggling decisions, and no comment policy has driven away the hard-core baseball fans. Fans that short of a World Series win every year, would never be completely satisfied anyway, and who would always find things to complain about. And that is their plan. Continue down that path until the last true baseball fan who actually cares is gone, thus eliminating all dissent, while 30,000 come to the stadium night after night for the "Show". And if a few writers stir up trouble, make a sacrifice once in a while, and continue to employ spin doctors that would make the best politicians jealous. Sit back and rake in the dough. Genius!

The Jose Vidro Society:
Bobby Ayala
Bill Bavasi
Jeff Cirillo
Carl Everett
Matt Lawton
Kevin Mitchell
Miguel Olivo
Horacio Ramirez
Heathcliffe Slocumb
Scott Spezio
Richie Sexson
Jeff Weaver
Rick White

Posted by scottM

2:29 PM, Aug 02, 2008

MEMO: To the SEATTLE TIMES
RE: Geoff Baker's Mariner Blog
DATE: 8/1/08 and 8/2/08
FROM: The JOSÉ GUILLÉN SOCIETY

In light of the fact that all members of the Seattle Times sports department are A.W.O.L. from this blog and that any and all substance on this blog in the last 36 hours has come from THE JOSÉ GUILLÉN SOCIETY, our organization respectfully requests that all investment by your paper in salary and other expense for this blog be donated immediately to THE JOSÉ GUILLEN SOCIETY c/o

Girl, Treasurer
JOSÉ GUILLEN SOCIETY
Walla Walla, WA. 99362

(psssst, GEOFF, if the Society can pull this off and you get to cover a winner next season, then this loss of your wages will be more than worth it for you!)


respectfully,

THE JOSÉ GUILLÉN SOCIETY

Posted by Sounders

2:48 PM, Aug 02, 2008

Vidro Society:

I hear ya man. The Mariners have as much in common with baseball as Big Time Wrestling has with sport. They talk about wanting to win, but that's all it is, cheap talk. The M's are many things but they are NOT a sports team

Posted by Guillenforcer

2:50 PM, Aug 02, 2008

Geoff has taken the same path as the Mariners.....work only when you feel like it, still get great perks from the Mariners FO, and when he comes back to actually write something, it will be in partial sentences, pig latin, and gibberish. After two weeks of that, his contract will be extended, and he will get Griffeys old recliner to write in (using Emmit Watsons old 19th century typewriter.)

Go Seahawks!

Posted by Sounders

2:50 PM, Aug 02, 2008

geoff,

where are you man? We need someone to share the pain. We've been forgotten, abandoned, forsaken, erased..

Posted by scottM

3:12 PM, Aug 02, 2008


I hereby nominate GUILLÉNFORCER as the Sergeant-of-Arms of THE JOSÉ GUILLÉN SOCIETY. Do we have a second for this motion?

respectfully,

scottM, VP
THE JOSÉ GUILLEN SOCIETY

Posted by Top pick in 09 draft

3:27 PM, Aug 02, 2008

Geoff got tired of this train wreck and left after the 5th inning last night. He's begun a world-wide search to see if he can find the elusive Mr. Yamauchi who is rumored to really exist. Will be kind of like OJ's search of America's golf courses looking for the real killer.

Posted by Sounders

3:47 PM, Aug 02, 2008

Howie: I know! Let's DFA Safeco field and put in some steep waterslides!
Chuckie: Great Idea! I would, but our scam is based on us pretending to be a baseball team

Posted by la verdad

4:08 PM, Aug 02, 2008

Perhaps Geoff was the 'blogger to be named later' in the Arthur Rhodes trade?

Posted by Walla Walla Girl

4:13 PM, Aug 02, 2008

Second! GUILLÉNFORCER for Sergeant-of-Arms of THE JOSÉ GUILLÉN SOCIETY.

Walla Walla Girl, Treasurer
THE JOSÉ GUILLÉN SOCIETY

Posted by wag the dog

4:53 PM, Aug 02, 2008

I appreciate the devotion of the Jose Guillen Society, but I can't really see Jose Guillen being the difference between a potentially 100 lose season and the playoffs. He's not that good. Few are, individually.

If it takes a team, a group of athletes, to be successful, I don't think the current roster is close to being competitive. Last season, with Jose Guillen, the team nose dived toward the end of the season. They've basically been awful since sometime last summer - with or without Guillen.

"CF: Look for another FA outfielder with a power bat and decent defense. Move Ichiro back to Center if necessary. If no FA acquisition is possible, then Jeremy Reed is a plus CF defender and a minus, but adequate bat.

1B: Be open to a FA acquisition, OR, if LaHair shows he can keep producing at the plate in '08, he is our windfall answer there."

Be open to a FA? Who? How many quality CF and 1B will be free agents this winter? Of those, who can we reasonably expect the Mariners to make a run at. Basically, with this plan, we're very likely to start next season with almost the exact same roster we're ending this season with. Part of me admires your optimism, but part of me is concerned management will think the same way and continue to do the same bunch of nothing that got the team to this point in the first place.

As to the lookoutlanding post, props to that guy for getting specific, but it seems to me that the whole plan revolves around landing AJ Burnett and a of mediocre position players. Below average offense, average defense, stellar rotation. Wasn't that supposed to be what got the 2008 Mariners to the playoffs? Scratching for runs is a drain on everyone, including the pitching staff.

And if one or two of those stellar pitchers gets injured, look out. You don't have the depth to overcome it. There's nothing in the minors for replacement and the offense can't hack it well enough to cover until the pitching recovers.

And in both scenarios, whether it's from lookoutlanding or ScottM, you've still got a roster full of players that lack power, focus, leadership and heart.

I'd like to see the Mariners get younger and grittier. It doesn't have to be a masher, how about, instead, a Grady Sizemore type, someone who get his uniform dirty every day and will do anything to win? Who is that on this Mariner team? Maybe Felix. But he's a starting pitcher. He's not the only guy that should be willing to lay out to make a play.

Anyway, interesting reading all around. There seems to be no lack of options for how to build the 2009 roster.

Posted by BrianL

5:31 PM, Aug 02, 2008

wag the dog - You don't need above average players at every position to compete. You can't, however, have below replacement-level players playing every day:

DH: Vidro
1B: Sexson/Cairo
OF: Wilkerson/Wlad

That's a huge black hole. The numbers these guys put up over the course of a season is well below that of a warm body from Tacoma. Those three positions are performing at a level that's about 100 runs below league-average. Add Raul's defense (his bat isn't enough to make up for his shortcomings in LF), and you have the reason this club has a -77 run differential.

Put Russ Branyan/Morgan Ensberg at 1B, Juan Rivera in LF, and move Ibanez to DH and there's +100 runs in the differential column as compared to this year.

With that, we stand at +23 or so.

Move Batista/Washburn out of the rotation and replace them with some combination of Burnett/Morrow/Dickey/RR-S and you get another 25 runs. That puts the team at +48, or just about what Tampa Bay and LAA's differential.

Posted by Garry kanz

10:04 PM, Aug 02, 2008

It is past time to trade your CEO and Pres.-- You need to sell the club and get a different owner, It is apparent that the present "administration" does not know or care fo win. ONLY then will you be playing for or in the World Series. SEATTLE DESERVES BETTER THAN IT IS GETTING!!!!

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