Reports: Sexson about to be released.

Larry Stone's article

Larry Stone finally proves that Bill Bavasi indeed used sabermetric analysis in deciding player evaluations. Mat Olkin who was hired to provide the M's with sabermetric analysis stated the following:

"I feel safe saying Bill was always interested in having that perspective," said Olkin, who remains on staff. "The thing I can't speak to is how he weighed that against other voices he listened to."There were moves he made that I advocated for, and advocated for very strongly.

Olkin states he's not sure how much Bavasi weighed his analysis, but the moves Bavasi decided on in finality were moves Mat Olkin had advocated. Saberheads will call it a major coincidence and will scramble with excuses that no way the M's have 4 losing seasons out of 5 by using metrics.

This should finally silence those that stated the M's did not use sabermetrics in player evaluations. Before fans start proclaiming Chris Antonettii will lift this franchise out of the dark ages they need a reality check.

The M's since 2004, used sabermetric analysis and it led to 4 last place finishes out of the past five years. My criticism of Dave Cameron's sabermetric backed player targets is to illustrate to fans that metrics isn't a magic potion that ails this franchise.

My criticism has been misinterpreted as bashing sabermetrics without purpose. The purpose is to illuminate to fans with a big flashing neon sign that if the M's had listened to USSM instead of Mat Olkin, the M's still would have been in the mess and hole they are trying to dig themselves out of.

"Part of that was by design. Bill always tried to protect me by not giving me any more information than he had to. He wouldn't say, 'I want to do this, what do you think?' He'd say, 'I have option A, B, C or D. I'm not going to tell you which one I like. You tell me which one you like and why.' He always gave me the feeling he was very interested in what I had to say."

The following shows Bavasi certainly used Mat Olkin the team's sabermetrics guy in assisting his player decisions the past 5 years. He even made sure Olkin did so in a fair sterile environment to make sure team politics did not influence his decision.

It is irrefutable evidence that saberheads will deny no matter what Mat Olkin stated, in order to preserve their agenda that sabermetrics is the M's answer for future success. It's not. As evident in how Bartolo Colon, alleged #1 starter Mat Clement, Geoff Jenkins, Ray Durham, Rodrigo Lopez, Chris Snelling, RHP Jim Johnson, Esteban Loaiza, Jacque Jones. Pokey Reese, and Austin Kearns would not have made the M's contenders this year.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/367450_next18.html

SABR heads are important to the future success of any Baseball team.
Also a SABR GM, will save Beltre's life as a Mariner as well, the guy is unlucky, and can't be faulted for his bad year.

Atonetti and Forst have to seriously be considered the top candidates if the Mariners are serious about change.

Great point about working with the large payroll. That gets often dismissed.

However, wouldn't that also keep Kim Ng ($118 Dodger payroll) in the running? She's not as well versed in the sabermetric community, but she's not afraid of it, either. I think she's one that "blends" saber with scouting to be a well-rounded GM.

Also, the saber-fave Chris Antonetti should be on the short list too. The Cleveland $78 mil payroll isn't that far off from the M's $100 mil+ range.

We've all seen what a great defense looks like. And while I didn't think Seattle's defense would make or break this team's playoff chances, you'd never catch me -- in public or private -- calling it one of the top units in the AL.

That's not so much about being able to understand and act on stats, as it is being honest within the org and outside of it. Unless you're saying that the previous/current regime actually seriously believes, and acts from the assumption, that they have a premiere defense. Might be nice for the next GM to work to dial down hyperbole from the field manager like "Ichiro can steal 80 bases". ;)

Also, carrying over from previous thread: What about knowledge of, and ability to leverage, international scouting? I'd think it'd be at least a bonus, if not essential, to have a GM who would be able to maximize the chance of finding the next Felix, or of actually winning the services of the next Fukudome / Matsuzaka, or getting an above-replacement-level player from Korea. The current FA class is large, but there's few solid guys worth more than a year-to-year contract.

Which then leads to the mirror of being able to handle and wisely use the wealth, which is knowing how to restock the farm system and evaluate in-house talent.

Thanks for putting the budget situation in limelight. It's funny how years ago Gillick was criticized for never offering contracts more than 3 years. Regardless of whether the next GM is a traditionalist or stat geek, I think with a large budget team like the Mariners, it might be good to go back to that philosophy as a means for checks-and-balances.

>> he M's since 2004, used sabermetric analysis and it led to 4 last place finishes out of the past five years. My criticism of Dave Cameron's sabermetric backed player targets is to illustrate to fans that metrics isn't a magic potion that ails this franchise.>>

Just because the Mariners have employed a staff member who is a SABR head doesn't mean they use him, its quite obvious they don't.

All the up and coming organizations Like the Rays, Diamondback and Indians have been using metrics for a while now and have had success.

Sabermetrics works, and it NEEDS to be implemented.

Another interesting trend you see in baseball is well-rounded GMs in place, with the SABR person as the assistant GM with strong input.

So why not hire a well-rounded person like a Cashman or Ng, but also hire a SABR person like Forst to be the assistant GM here?

Resin--Saying you consider sabermetric analysis and actually incorporating it are two different things.

I agree with you that using stats blindly does no good and that they should be combined with traditional scouting. But no team that signed Washburn, Batista or Silva to long-term contracts can say that sabermetrics played a pivotal role. The SABR community laughed at the Ms for those moves. Peripheral stats should have steered us away from Vidro or Sexson and probably Ibanez (hey, they got one wrong) .

The Ms might say they use newer stats but the evidence is to the contrary....though I did read awhile back (don't remember where) that Dickey was signed on Olkin's recommendation.

You must be a farmer Resin because you've built yourself an amazing number of strawmen.

I love when people point to Matt Olkin and say that he proves that Bavasi utilized sabermetrics.

Go to the Mariners front office page and you'll be able to find everyone on the payroll down to the mascot coordinator and parking lot attendants, but no mention of Matt Olkin. That tells me how highly they think of Mr.Olkin.

My guess is they kept Olkin around to amuse the folks at USSM.

Maybe they need a new SABR guy too.

Just a thought ...

Geoff, Derek Zumsted is saying that Olkin is NOT employed by the M's. He even told another poster that it was a rumor he was employed. Mr. Sabermetrics believes that Derek is wrong here but can you confirm this?

C the genius from Bothell. If Clement shows that he belongs offensively and defensively at the major league level in the next three-and-a-half-months––a more than adequate, second chance, sample size––then I very much like someone's earlier suggestion that the M's trade Johjima back to Japan for one of the rising talents there. With Burke and Johnson, the M's wouldn't need Johjima. Moving Joh to first base or DH is foolish because the guy has never had the power stats to produce in those spots. He would be clogging up the works, much like Vidro does as our current DH and how Ibanez does defensively in LF.

Resin- wow! it must be exhausting to keep running all over hill and dale looking for examples and arguments and reasons to justify your POV! Hey, one guy hired as a statistician does not a SABR- organization make.

Resin, the only Mat Olkin move that Bill Bavasi ever listened to was to pick up RA Dickey off of the Rule 5 draft.

And good lord, man. My high school AP English teacher would love to sit you down and have a lesson on strawmen arguments.

Mr. Sabermetrics - Mat Olkin was employed by the M's but recently took a job with the Kansas City Royals.

Ned at 10:36. Excellent point. To take this a step further, if a veteran receives a larger amount over one year rather than a spread out lesser per year amount over three, four or five years, then the contract with the player is still much more incentivized.

These multi year Sexson/Vidro/Beltre/Johjima/Washburn/ Silva/Batista salaries are what have hamstrung this team. They've created the atmosphere of entitlement that is stultifying the competitive spirit. Note that, except for Beltre, these are all players in their 30's (and of all those multi-year deals, Beltre's has arguably turned out the best).

Save the large multiyear salaries for true younger franchise players such at Felix, who already shows competitive zeal without a large salary. If a player is over 30, then establish a
franchise policy where no player will be signed for more than two years. Paying a premium for this is fine. It will eliminate the on-the-job-retirement complacency that we've seen from the likes of Sexson and Washburn.

INCENTIVIZE/ INCENTIVIZE/ INCENTIVIZE

ScottM - Good points on the 3-year or longer deals. There are times, though, I think you have to make an exception.

In the next off-season, there is only one player who warrants such an exception: Atlanta 1B Mark Teixeira. That swing is tailor made for Safeco field, and he plays a fairly good 1B to boot. This is the only player who you can possibly justify giving a 4-5 year contract to.

If Beltre (currently hitting .233) is your best vet FA signing, your whole team is in trouble. That's how you can explain how this team is destined to lose 100 games this season.

Any debate over sabermetrics is ridiculous. Sabermetrics measures what works and what does not.

Does batting average measure what works? No very well. It regards home runs no differently than singles. Obviously, that is ridiculous.

BA also does not measure the value of a walk.

That's why OPS, a sabermetric stat, is used to measure the full value of offensive production.

This is a dumb debate. Maybe some people think the world is flat.

F--- sabremetrics. The only stats you need are on the back of the players' bubble gum cards. Other than that, if you want to know how good a player his, try watching him play. That usually works.

Also concerning the Rays-

Geoff, you don't really give enough credit to the new organization that's in charge of this group. During the Chuck LaMar years, that was a team that would hire aging veteran retreads (Fred McGriff, Jose Canseco, Wade Boggs) to put butts in the seat and really had no idea how to handle their draft strategy. The organization did a complete turnaround after hiring Andrew Friedman.

The difference in performance from last year to this year seems to have come out of nowhere, but Friedman identified the biggest problem with the team and addressed it: defense. By improving the infield defense with a new shortstop, the entire pitching staff (which for the most part was the same group of people who played last season) improved mightily.

I'm really skeptical about the claims that this org has used sabremetrical analysis....especially in pitching. The Washburn, Batista, and Silva signings...not to mention the HoRam trade would NEVER have been made by anyone with even a clue about pitching sabremetrics. All of these pitchers have poor to mediocre base-performance indicators (even in their best seasons) that would argue against bringing them in for the $$ they paid them.

I'm still wondering how much meddling the higher-ups (Mr. Y, A, and L) are doing. Did the now-fired GM have complete control or not (think Johjima)? What about the Managers (Mac, Hargrove, Lou)--did they have control over the team, or were they "influenced" by the FO to do certain things? Did the FO ignore requests for needed players by the manager? I assume there is a job description for each position.

I'd like to see an article/blog on this topic with input from previous Seattle managers and GM's ... maybe players too.

If we are hiring new personnel at any/all levels, these issues should be sorted out and understood by all in advance. Let's be sure the organization is functioning on all cylinders with every person doing his/her own job, not someone else's. If it's broke, let's fix it now. Could it be time for the good old boys to exit? ;-)

So let me get this straight...
If Bavasi asked Olkin which of the following options were the best pitcher regardless of money... Horam, Piniero, Franklin or Silva
AND the answer Olkin gives is Silva
THEN it is sabermetrics that failed and can't be trusted???
I don't understand your thinking Resin, and others about this negative attitude about analyzing numbers.

Well, I guess one major firing is sufficient justification for re-entering this comments section, although I said I wouldn't until Mac was gone.

Still, I find it hard to believe they let go of Bavasi without first trying to see if a new manager could do a better job of getting these guys to play right. The only logical reason is sentimentality. And, that only gets you where you are.

We're not exactly talking about a necessity of keeping a newly hired Dusty Baker around so we 've got to fire the GM type logic, you know.

Good grief, Resin, that's perhaps the worst argument I've seen you make, and that's saying something.

You just cited to an article that quoted Olkin himself as saying he wasn't aware how much weight Bavasi gave to sabermetric analysis, and then you make this completely unsupported statement:

The M's since 2004, used sabermetric analysis and it led to 4 last place finishes out of the past five years. My criticism of Dave Cameron's sabermetric backed player targets is to illustrate to fans that metrics isn't a magic potion that ails this franchise.

Your statement that sabermetric analysis led to four last-place finishes is wholly without support. You don't have a clue how much Bavasi used Olkin's work. NOT A CLUE. Don't pretend otherwise.

Perhaps Bavasi's scouting department deserves more of the blame. Washburn? Spezio? Aurillia? Everett? Batista? Silva? Show me the sabermetric analysis that would advocate signing those players for the deals they got from the Mariners. That's scouting gone bad, not sabermetric analysis.

Seriously, any credibility you had left is likely gone after this biased argument. Pathetic.

For the record: Sabermetrics + Scouting = Success.

That's why I brought up the name of Mike Rizzo a couple of days ago.

Mike-The Washburn signing was awful. I think you have a sound point that sabermetrics, nor scouting could have helped with that signing. That was a bad signing by a bad GM. That's why I applaud the Bavasi firing. It's obvious not even Olkin would have advocated this signing. You certainly cannot say that Bavasi used a traditional scouting approach to evaluate Washburn based on ERA.

I can point to Mark Shapiro who uses a complex sabermetrics computer system with Chris Antonetti in Cleveland.

Cliff Lee is Shapiro's Washburn that defied sabermetric reasoning. Shapiro landed Cliff Lee via trade in 2002. Cliff Lee is having success despite having a poor GB% from 2002 to 2007 that averaged around 35%. Lee also averaged around a 45 FB% which sabermetrics will tell you this pitcher sucks based on his FB% and GB%. HIs LD% the past 2 years was below league average. His K% declined every year from 2004-2007. His xFIP was terrible during his career, his BB% was good, his K% wasn't great.

So why did sabermetrics GM Shapiro keep Lee in the rotation since 2003? Is it because he won 18 games in 2005, 14 games in '04 and '06? Is it because he had good mechanics, good mound presence, and a good plan against hitters? Hmmm.

They dealt Brandon Phillips for a PTBNL in one of the worst trades in Cleveland history. I could say they relied on his BABIP in 370 at bats in 2003, his terrible BB%, K%, his weak 18.3 LD%, and his weak minor league traditional stats, ignored scouting reports and shipped him off for a nobody. I won't even talk about bust Josh Barfield.

Cleveland then pulled a Johjima Bavasi contract and re-signed Travis Hafner to 4 years $57 million to a 31 year old veteran at the beginning of 2007 when Pronk was hitting mendoza line and finished last year with career lows in every offensive category. He's declined this year also and seems to battle the D.L. the past few years.

Cleveland is third in their division, below .500 and has been rumored to be sellers come the trade deadline if they continue to lose. Cleveland and all their sabermetrics low risk veteran signings of Jorge Julio, Paul Byrd, David Dellucci, Trot Nixon, Kenny Lofton, has not helped the Indians in 2007 or this year. The team made the post season because of their farm system and scouting in players like Aaron Laffey, Fausto Carmona, last year team MVP Victor Martinez, and C.C. Sabathia.

Sabermetrics isn't the cure all. We need a smart talented GM, not a sabermetrics apprentice.

Good post Geoff

Regarding Cashman. The one thing I'd like to know about him is was he forced to make some of those bad pitcher deals ie: Pavano, Brown et al.

Washburn? Spezio? Aurillia? Everett? Batista? Silva? Show me the sabermetric analysis that would advocate signing those players for the deals they got from the Mariners

"There were moves he (Bill Bavasi) made that I advocated for, and advocated for very strongly."-Mat Olkin/Seattle Mariners Sabermetrics consultant

What we need is somebody who can judge talent. Sometimes stats help with that, but not always. After all, after his first few years with the Expos, who ever thought that Randy Johnson would become one of the greatest pitchers of all time? All it took was some maturity and some coaching. But if you looked at his Montreal stats, you'd see a guy who walked way too many batters to be successful. I hope that our next GM has a good balance between the "new age" of stats and computers and the "old school" of evaluating talent.

Thinking more about Joh, it probably isn't realistic to trade him to a Japanese team however he could be sold to a team with his permission - M's would probably need to pick up much of his salary. Remember the Tom Selleck character in Mr. Baseball? He was sold to a Japanese team with his agent's approval. Joh doesn't really fit as a regular catcher any longer - besides Clement, Adam Moore at AA is one of the top prospects in the system and is a better defensive catcher than Clement.

...or maybe CBS will want to sign Joh for the lead in the remake of Magnum P.I.

Excellent point about working with a large budget, Geoff.

I know you'll recall a fellow by the name of Glen Sather who made (or at least had made on his behalf) the same claims about payroll - "Imagine what (he) could do with a bigger payroll - look out league, what a genius!".

Warning - hockey reference coming up...:

Sather moved from the Edmonton Oilers, constrained by budgets to the NY Rangers, who were anything but (pre-salary cap days in the NHL). Money got thrown around at FA's, but success didn't translate...

This is not to say that the M's should shy away from the more anylitical types, but interviews should be conducted with an eye towards the candidates' philosophy of using and working with a large payroll.

Whoever our new GM is, I would hope that they make a conscious effort to (re)build the M's with Safeco Field in mind.

Just a quick question. Arrived in the country 6 months ago and have been following the mariners - and have researched such that I can at least have a passing knowledge of the stats and discuss them. A question on contracts though. The Mariners site had a report the may release Sexson - what generally happens in that situation - ie do the Mariners continue to pay the salary weekly until someone may pick up his contract (if anyone wants it) or do they shop around for someone who takes the contract at a lower value and pay the remainder - or just cop a loss and pay him out.

Going to go out and see Tacoma play on the weekend - and probably the Mariners again on July 4th - I think they will win at least 50% from here on.

Silva had a career GB% over 50. Whcih is terrific in the sabermetric community. His LD% was 18.8 his last year with the Twins which 17% is good, 20% is league average.

Horacio Ramirez. 53 GB%, that's terrific according to sabermetrics! Okay his 20.4 LD% is league average. Horacio Ramirez's LOB% was 69.9% is league average. An outstanding 9.0 FB/HR%

Okay nothing indicating he sucks and will be out of the major leagues the following year unless you believe BB% and K% would indicate that. Horacio is prime example of sabermetrics failed Bavasi.

Walla Walla Girl:
I believe if you look at things closely, there is meddling going on at all echelons. For example, Why would the ms extend Jojima's contract at a time that he was playing his worse ball? Simple--team ownership. Another example, why would a guy be drafted #1 as a starting pitcher and never be given the chance to start? Or, why would the center fielder be sent back to right field the same day the GM is fired. My guess is that Boovasi insisted that Ichiro play center field because he might be more successful finding and signing a right fielder then a center fielder. And for those that wonder why the GM went out the door ahead of the manager? My guess is that the GM hired the manager and was too pig headed to fire him, so the suits canned the GM. Kind of what happened in Husky land.

Resin - still waiting for the proof, dorkwad

Thanks, Chuck. I think that is my point. ;-)

Adam's right -- it takes both stat anlysis and scouting, and more. It's all about judging talent AND what will work for your team. Geoff trashes Tampa Bay for drafting Josh Hamilton. Oh? You mean the guy threatening to take the Triple Crown, now with Texas? How sweet would he look in this roster? When Hamilton was with Cincy he was available for a song, and we've traded with them, but we didn't go after him because Bavasi et al. were not creative. When Carlos Pena was with Texas way back when, you could see his sweet swing was perfect for Safeco, and he killed the M's, but when he became a free agent we didn't even so much as nibble. Last year he had 40 HRs and 100+ RBIs for Tampa, though he is hurt this year. Stats matter, but so do baseball instinct and being able to see true potential. Bavasi failed miserably; the Bedard idea was a decent gamble, but Bavasi overpaid and apparently did not do his homework on the guy's attitude. Other thank Eric he did not try to fashion a a team that fits Safeco, especially offensively.

Geoff: Thank you for your considered opinions regarding the next GM assignment. Lord knows Chuck Armstrong will need all the help he can get in this task. Hopefully he will contact LaCava and Cashman (after the annual Yankee playoff run). I also appreciate your shedding light on the fact that having a large budget can actually make the job much more difficult in that it forces one to become that much more accountable.

Whoever is selected as the new GM, he hopefully will have a solid background i& demonstrated success in judging pitchers. Sexson & Beltre notwithstanding, this was the major downfall of Bavasi and why he ended up a dismal failure here. Besides Bedard, Silva, Weaver, et al, don't forget that Bavasi was willing to pay huge amounts of $ and overextend in years for Zito, Jason Schmidt, and Carl Pavano. Thank goodness their were other dumb GMs out there or we would be hopeless for the next 5 seasons rather than 1 (years remaining for Washburn & Batista).

"And for those that wonder why the GM went out the door ahead of the manager? My guess is that the GM hired the manager and was too pig headed to fire him, so the suits canned the GM. " -- Chuck

Or, it's just another example of that meddlesomenous you're talking about, seeing that said manager was the Mariners' bench coach during the pre-Bavasi glory years.

I kinda concur with Walla Walla Gal, if Chuck Armstrong has the support of Howard Lincoln to secure a new GM - that's a bit scary given 'Mr. John Paul Jones' might need replacing himself along with the CEO. So I'm concerned that the best GM selection for the M's takes place given the FO.

BTW Geoff, interesting post today- lots of ideas to entertain fans while the team goes through its travails this summer.

The M's may be rebuilding but I doubt very much we'll see much until the offseason. Besides some good old vet unloading (at last!) I'm betting from what I've read that this summer will be musical chairs for AAA rookies to safeco and back so as the FO can take a good look.

Sounds like Richie will be unloaded today or tomorrow - guess this leaking here and there in the press is normal procedure, huh? I'd think they'd let Vidro go at the same time since his unloading is inevitable.

NewFan, 50% wins for the rest of the season: your optimism is...um, kind of astonishing! But you get a pass as you are, well, new :) Anyway, welcome-

"Whoever is selected as the new GM, he hopefully will have a solid background i& demonstrated success in judging pitchers. Sexson & Beltre notwithstanding," -- TP09

Hey, you don't need to stop with Beltre and Sexson. How about Brad Wilkerson, Scott Spiezio, Carl Everett, Rich Aurelia, Matt Lawton, and Pokey Reese? Not that those guys were supposed to be key pieces to the rebuilding of this team. But, couldn't he have gotten guys to give you something, at least? They gave you absolutely nothing!

Great post Geoff,

Here's to the Mariners finding a GM able to keep all the plates spinning.

I have a feeling Cashman could be great GM outside of NY since being the buffer between the world and the nonsense that spews from the dueling Hanks is a full time job in and of itself.

Speaking of spouting off with no idea what one is talking about, thanks for dispelling the Matt Olkin rumor. TweedleZum from USSM is wrong a lot and he's been dishing this Olkin slop to all the sucklings out there for awhile now.

Thanks again for a great blog and access to the inside info only you provide.

p.s. Luci, now I get what you mean about adam. Makes me think of the Southpark episode about Joseph Smith, with a local twist "Zum Zum Zum Zum Zum"

Antonetti!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All you need are: a) the player's recent basic stats; b) his age and conditioning, and c) his character. And that's it. You start going into sabremetrics, you end up thinking way too much and more often than not talk yourself into doing something that you shouldn't based on concepts that are probably beyond your understanding.

Bammy,

Used to have respect for DMZ but not only did he slap me down for quoting a PUBLISHED piece about DIckey and Matt Olkin BUT when I asked DMZ to clarify his position on Olkin now that Geoff has proven HE DOES have ties to the M's, he deleted my post.

Real good DMZ. Off topic? We were discussing the GM thing and this applies. Oh well. I can always come here or hang out at Detectovision, LL or here. At least you can have discussions and challenge the moderators without getting deleted.

Something missing In the too much SABR v. not enough SABR conversation: Regardless of what stat analysis went into the decisions to hire specific players, the problem with the Ms is they don't know when to cut bait. And there's zero evidence that stats analysis was being used, either mid-season or between seasons, to identify players that were not performing and needed to be dumped. E.g. Sexson.

And scott - I doubt the same ownership that extended Joh for 3 years would trade him to Japan. Don't really know how that would work, actually; I know there's a posting process for free agents but is there a similar hurdle (or outright ban) that precludes trading directly between, e.g. the Mariners and the Nippon Ham Fighters?

And on contracts - Geoff has raised the point before about how much the Ms have to overpay to get people to come out to the baseball backwoods up here to play. Even if the Ms are sensible and stop overpaying for mediocre talent, they're not going to be able to attract the top line talent to come out here for one or two years. So setting a policy of going only 2 years at a time for FAs isn't going to fly. Many FAs are looking for the big payday, as well as stability for themselves and their families (ML life on the road is hard enough, why uproot themselves and their families every couple of years once they get into their early 30s?). Year to year, or every couple years, will only attract the kind of selfish mercenaries or mediocre castoffs that this organization has already had its fill of.

"Horacio is prime example of sabermetrics failed Bavasi."

Got to take issue with this statement. There are three other metrics for pitchers that I've not even seen mentioned in this thread that are VERY good leading indicators of future success....K / 9 (dominance rating), K / BB (Command Ratio), and HR / 9. Horacio's pre-SEA metrics in the first two categories were HORRID. His HR / 9 was league-average.

Mr. Gee,

Sabermetrics is useful if it is used to evaluate and not predict. It can give you ideas of what to expect, ceilings and all. Using your logic I can look at the factors you laid out and fail. One needs more than that when evaluating a player in which to give big money to.

Mr Sabermetrics finds that DMZ is not a big fan of opinions that question his. In that sense, if you post something that questions his belief system, you lose.

Mr. Sabermetrics does like Dave C. though. For a fan of sabermetrics, DMZ gets way into players that haven't always panned out. Mr. Sabermetrics also does not agree that closers are easily found. If that were true, anybody could close.

Outside of that, Mr. Sabermetrics endorses Dave C. but not DMZ as he is way too emotional when it comes to busts like Chris Snelling. Mr. S does endorse giving Snelling a shot as a 4th OF, but he will never be an everyday player in this league. Never.

I read that M's management has already made a list of candidates.

Don't forget the GM still has to work with the manager, and the manager with the players for it all to come together as well.

Sabermetrics will not help your shortstop trying to bunt on a 3 and 2 count. Sabermetrics will not help your catcher strapping on a first baseman's glove for the first time in his life. Sabermetrics will not help your baserunner pick up the base coach rounding third faster so he isn't thrown out by 20 feet.

"Okay nothing indicating he sucks and will be out of the major leagues the following year unless you believe BB% and K% would indicate that."

Uhhh, you think? There wasn't a saber guy alive that thought Horacio Ramirez was a good pitcher. Not one.

Your contributions the last few days have easily been the most pathetic series of posts I've ever seen from you? Sabermetrics led us to pick up Horacio Ramirez? Really?

Seriously just stop digging.

As an M's fan stuck in Yankee country I have no idea what people see in Cashman. Yes he has improved the farm team lately. But, what has he really done on the field? Yes there are championships, HOWEVER, there is a huge difference between a 100 mil. payrol and a 225 mil. payrol. With the later, you can just hide your huge mistakes. For example Sexson would have been outright released a long time ago. And he wouldn't be replaced with a kid from the minors or a Vidro type player. He'd be replaced with another parenial allstar. If he came to seattle he obviously won't be able to hide his huge mistakes. Yes Seattle wastes money. However the yanks roster has at least 5 guys on that the average fan has never heard of. For 225 mil. that should never happen. I vote for giving someone knew a try.

Sabermetricians like Horacio Ramirez? Really?

Resin, you're really grasping at straws today. If I recall correctly, the sabermetric community may have been the most vocal in opposition to the Soriono for HoRam deal. I think your correlation skills need work.

Sorry, not buying it. Ground ball ratios are meaningless - are these soft ground balls or hard ground balls being hit? Fly ball ratios are meanlingless - are these pop-ups or long fly balls being hit? I say just keep it simple and apply your common sense more than anything.

Here’s my take on the subject. I think that whatever formula they were using to evaluate talent it was flawed. Too much emphasis was placed on nice, fanfriendly type guys and not enough was placed on leadership skills. We don’t have one let alone two or three leaders. Zilch in the clubhouse and ditto for the field. To me, this was their biggest mistake.

"Sorry, not buying it. Ground ball ratios are meaningless - are these soft ground balls or hard ground balls being hit?"

Last time I checked, GB's don't turn into extra base hits.

"Fly ball ratios are meanlingless - are these pop-ups or long fly balls being hit?"

Flyballs leave the yard at an 11% rate on average. Given that studies have shown that pitchers generally can't control their HR/FB rate, fewer flyballs means fewer HR's (or doubles and triples) means fewer runs given up. This isn't rocket science. Even the scouting community sees the value in GB pitchers.

"You certainly cannot say that Bavasi used a traditional scouting approach to evaluate Washburn based on ERA. "

I think you can. Washburn's 2005 ERA was 3.20. To be fair I think Bavasi also thought the big outfield would play to Washburn's FB tendencies as well. I think Bavasi saw a guy who once won 18 games (also not a good stat) coming off a "good" year and that Safeco would help him. What he likely did not consider was that Washburn's LOB rate (Not a repeatable skill) in 2005 was a remarkable 82%. That 2005 ERA was smoke and mirrors. Just for reference Wasburn's career LOB rate is 67%.

All of this sabremetrics stuff is flying around because a number of teams have started employing this as ANOTHER (not replacement) tool for analyzing player skill. So, If BOS, OAK, et al are making it work and we couldn't it's because either A) We were using the WRONG tools, B) Had the wrong guy(s) using the tools, or more likely C) All of the above. I don't think anyone would argue that laptops and spreadsheets can replace pure scouting, but obviously there is something to the Moneyball philosophy, and obviously we were doing something VERY wrong here. I would not be at all surprised if the rumor about a M's exec referring to Moneyball as "bullsh*t" were true. That sounds like someone with their head in the sand.

This debate about Saber v. Traditionalist is good IMO. I like stats/sabermetrics to evaluate a players ability but he needs to be scouted in order to determine how he will fit in to a team. There are guys who put up great numbers but DO NOT fit on a team. Leadership and coachablity are just as important as sabermetrics. I have been watching the CWS lately and there are guys that put up great numbers and have for 2 or 3 years but probably won't play in the Majors because of their unwillingness to learn.

Resin Isn't Cheating: 12:08 PM, Jun 18, 2008:

Washburn? Spezio? Aurillia? Everett? Batista? Silva? Show me the sabermetric analysis that would advocate signing those players for the deals they got from the Mariners

"There were moves he (Bill Bavasi) made that I advocated for, and advocated for very strongly."-Mat Olkin/Seattle Mariners Sabermetrics consultant

You. Have. Got. To. Be. Kidding. Me.

Mat Olkin was given a list of names and asked his sabermetric opinion. He is a consultant at this level for the Mariners and Royals.

This isn't the same as having a full time Assistant GM than runs sabermetrics on their entire roster from Rookie ball to the majors and constantly evaluates other personnel to determine the next good move.

This is also the same organization that got rid of Jamie Moyer because he was too old, Carlos Guillen because he had a drinking problem and Rafael Soriano because he had arm problems. Who they got in return for those players was an afterthought. Addition by subtraction, is what I heard.

I don't even know how to begin getting an organization to overcome stoneage thinking like that.

It is probably really good that this dialogue is taking place. This will make it that much harder for the Ms to continue to dismiss or undervalue sabermetrics. Welcome to the 21st century...about 8 years late.

Once again let me say SCOUTING IS HUGELY IMPORTANT. The stats can tell you the what (and newer stats do a better job of that) but you need scouts to tell you why. The Ms have been less successful understanding the what.

Sorry to beat the dead horse of the Bedard trade but sabermetrics could have helped. There is a time and place to make a risky prospect rich, 5 for 1 swap for an ace. That time and place is when said ace puts you over the top. The reason the SABR crowd was so against the deal was that the Ms didn't look as good as the Angels. Had the Ms listened we now wouldn't be in the position of trying to trade Bedard in an attempt to possibly recoup half of what we gave up.

Sabermetrics are not a panacea. But by utliizing them intelligently, in coordination with scouting you can improve your decision making processes.

Plus, as an added benefit, you might just learn something you didn't know before.

Mike....wonderfully stated.

I have a question who would replace JMac if/when he gets a pink slip? I think everyone can agree that the M's have leadership issues at all levels but the manager in baseball has less impact than the head coach in football or basketball. So maybe the M's need to import a leader to bring the guys who have had good stats to get them back on track. Just a thought.

Scrapiron,

Yeah. They'll hang onto Ichiro because he's Ichiro. But gettiing a player for off field reasons should end there. After that they should get the best players no matter what. They need to get with it on judging when a player is improving and when he will decline.

I still have my doubts about the FO. They'll have to stop getting ripped off in deals, take a tougher stance, start acting from a position of strength. If they could turn around their image as PC softies, I'm sure it would trickle down throughout the entire org. The Bavasi move was a step in that direction. We'll see if they can keep it up.

Sounders-

There should be a difference between off the field reasons that affect a players performance and ones that affect the club house. There should be a further difference between why they hang on to Ichiro and why they let go of Jamie Moyer. Ichiro is being held onto because of the bottomline even though he doesn't lead or offer any intangibles that warrent such a lover affair. Jamie Moyer a) wanted to go to a team to compete and b) was let go because of his age dispite his outstanding leadership and countless intangibles.

Well put Mike.
Bottom line is TALENT EVALUATION. Saber is fine as long as there's talent. Questions to Howard and Chuck: what are you looking for in a GM? What qualifications do they need to have? What is your plan? Hint - talent evaluation. Maybe consult with Ruskell?

I think it's time we just realize the Mariners will have a backup ctacher making 8 million per year, the next three years.

People forget the A's (yes, Team MOneyball) was actually paying Jason Kendall 11 million a year... and he went something like 750 at-bats with a homerun.

We know Kenji is bad/declining (and the contract is a joke) but ultimately, it isn't our money, there is no salary cap, and we are stuck with a slug at catcher.

I think the solace we can all take i nthis... is that Clement is getting the 'he'll play a lot" nod again.

I'm glad Bavasi is gone. I wish this season could be restarted but it can't.

Get some NEW Blood in this organization... canning Bavasi was just the beginning.

P.S. - I hope Howard Lincoln reads this. Cuz he acknowledged to Geoff at the Bavasi-firing press conference "I read the blogs".

where there are two sabermatricians - there are three opinions.

And maybe the M's can get a win tonight on Paul McCartney's 66th birthday.

Anyone know when Big Suxy is gonna be released?

"All of this sabremetrics stuff is flying around because a number of teams have started employing this as ANOTHER (not replacement) tool for analyzing player skill."

Exactly. It's utilizing all the available information to make the most informed desision. Nobody should be against that.

Sabermetrics led us to pick up Horacio Ramirez? Really?

BrianL-If you saberheads can speculate that Bavasi used ERA to evaluate Washburn. I have every right to speculate Bavasi used GB% to evaluate Horacio.

It's a two way street no matter how entitled you feel being a sabrehead. Bavasi certainly believed Horacio being a ground ball pitcher would benefit playing with the infield he had. He was quoted in the papers saying so.

GB% is a standard SABR statistic your community uses and values when looking at pitchers. The SABR community does not start and end with the blogs you frequent that follow the M's. I do agree the majority of fans did not like this trade and rightfully so.

As the "saberhead" who speculated about Washburn, fair enough about Ramirez. Bavasi did cite his ground ball rate and combined that with his belief that we played great infield defense. That belief, however, overvalued Yuni's range and underestimated Sexson's general statue-like quality.

More damning though were other stats that should have been a red flag. You keep saying the SABR community values GB% and this is true. It also values missing bats and not walking guys. Ramirez was bad at these. One out of three does not a good pitcher make. Plus, he was coming over from the NL.

I think Geoff's very right about the next GM needing to know how to work with a big payroll. Beane was FORCED to find alternate