Mariners Blog
Geoff Baker covers the Mariners for The Seattle Times. He provides daily coverage of the team throughout spring training, and during the season.
May 7, 2008 10:34 AM
On the brink
Posted by Geoff Baker
A gloomy morning out there today for Mariners fans and it has little to do with cloudy skies and cool temperatures. The Mariners have to win these next two games, especially with their two top starting pitchers on the mound. As I mentioned last night, I wrote before this series began that Seattle had to take three of four from the Texas Rangers. They will then have to take the next series from the Chicago White Sox and move on from there. These are not good teams the M's are facing right now and it's imperative that they use these games to make headway in the standings.
So, despite the 10-1 loss last night, it only counts as one defeat and leaves the series tied. That means Seattle can still take three of four and, quite frankly, can't waste any more time. This team is already 7 1/2 games out and 6 1/2 back of second-place Oakland. Catching one team is hard enough. But even the wild-card shot is starting to become a pipe dream here. And honestly, the M's can no longer afford to look at other teams in the standings. They have to get their own house in order. If I'm them, my goal becomes to win these next two games, stop the bleeding first, then focus on whittling that gap with the Angels down a bit.
And focus on getting some offense. No, there wasn't much that could be done last night once it was a 10-0 game in the third. There was plenty that could be done when it was still a 2-0 or 3-0 game, but several of the key hitters, as I mentioned last night, have not come through with runners in scoring position this season.
Seattle is now 0-15 in games in which they trail by two or more runs at any point. I talked about this stat during my Talkin' Baseball segment this morning on the Mitch in the Morning show on KJR 950 AM. Some of you have asked me how that number compares to other clubs. Well, I can tell you that only two other teams in baseball have yet to overcome a two-run gap to win a game this season: the Toronto Blue Jays and Colorado Rockies. The Blue Jays are 0-13 in such scenarios while the Rockies are an abysmal 0-19. But wait. While there is at least one major league club worse off than Seattle, the M's still come off poorly in comparison to last year's World Series finalists.
That's because the Rockies, while failing to win a game in which they fall behind by two runs at some point, have at least managed to overcome that gap during the game to a greater extent than Seattle has.
The lowly Rockies have at least managed to come back from two runs or more down to either tie or take the lead on five occasions before going on to lose. Toronto has rebounded from deficits of two or more in four of the 13 defeats only to ultimately lose the game.
Seattle has done this only twice all season. Once against Texas before J.J. Putz blew the save on the second night of the season, when Seattle rebounded from 3-1 down in the eighth to go up 4-3. But a Josh Hamilton blast in the ninth off Putz turned that game around. And then again against Baltimore on April 24, when Ichiro hit a two-run homer in the seventh to overcome a 7-5 deficit, only to see the M's lose the game on a homer in the eighth.
That's it. At all other points in the season, when the other team goes up by two or more, the M's wilt.
Playoff teams can't do that.
I think a big culprit, which we identified last night, has been the inability of some of the team's key hitters to get the runs home when they have a chance. We looked at Adrian Beltre, Raul Ibanez and Richie Sexson and how their numbers drop when they come to bat with runners in scoring position. It was there for all to see last night when, down 2-0 in the first inning, Seattle got two on with none out only to have the Ibanez-Beltre-Sexson trio strand the runners once again. They get some hits, the game possibly goes in a different direction. Maybe Jose Lopez is on his toes in a close game and snags that grounder heading for the outfield to prevent Texas from tacking on five more runs. Sigh. Who knows, right?
These aren't always "clutch'' situations with the game on the line in the eighth or ninth innings. Ibanez and Beltre tend to be better at those. But frankly, this offense is so bad that it's not a stretch to consider even first or second inning at bats to be clutch moments. When you can't score runs, every at-bat with guys on base becomes clutch.
And as I mentioned, if this team falls behind 2-0 in the first inning, there's a very good chance the game is already over. So, if a game is scoreless in the fourth and Ibanez comes to bat with a guy on second, is that a "clutch'' situation? Until this team proves it can hit its way out of a paper bag, it is.
I've looked for some posiitve signs this team can overcome the hole it's dug for itself. Thought I saw one the first three innings on Monday. But in the 14 innings since, the M's have scored one run. Ken Griffey Jr. is not the answer here, folks. Sorry to burst that bubble. It's not 1998 anymore. We're in 2008 and this team will have to win with what it's got and avoid the temptation to add yet another sub-.700 OPS DH type to its roster at the cost of an actual living person. If you want the PR fluff and warm fuzzies so badly, add Griffey next year as a free-agent when he isn't going to cost you anything but money. This team is good at spending that. For now, stop wasting your own time with the Griffey thoughts. He isn't going to help this team dig its way out of this mess.
Positive signs to seek out tonight? A well-pitched game by Erik Bedard and an offense that can put some runs across. It's come down to a night-by-night study of this team, unfortunately, and every inning, every run put up will be a "clutch'' situation until it reverses this downward spiral. Buckle up tight. Tonight could get real interesting or real ugly.
Posted by Ziasudra
10:54 AM, May 07, 2008
I watched the game on TV, and when it was 10-0, I turned it off and played solitare on my computer - more interesting. So, I didn't see any of the ads after that, either.
The whole tenor of the team was discernable in the 3rd inning. down 5-0, when the ground ball up the middle got by Lopez. He half-heartedly reached for it. If he gets it, we save 5 runs. I'm not saying Lopez lost the game - just the opposite, since the game was lost, he lost adrenelin along with the rest of the team. After Ichiro and he got the first inning started, hitters 3,4,5 couldn't even advance a runner, much less get a RBI - pathetic. We lost the game after no outs in the bottom of the 1st.
Posted by Tom R.
10:55 AM, May 07, 2008
The Mariners are a disgrace to the city of Seattle. The team needs new ownership to throw out this management rabble including Bavasi and McLaren. Until they do, I won't be buying anymore tickets, paying $8 for beer, $7 for a hotdog, or 4.50 for a bottle of water that they pay 15 cents for.
Posted by Enjoying your misery
10:56 AM, May 07, 2008
Better hope the M's don't squander too many of your "savior's" starts, or you'll see him on the DL again with another "injury" later in the year. Especially when (not if) the M's are out of contention. Or better yet, he'll start crying out of games by the 6th inning after barely throwing 90 pitches.
Be careful what you wish for.
Posted by Bobby
11:02 AM, May 07, 2008
Pat, On paper you could say the same thing about us as you say about the whitesox.. But in reality we are a subpar team.
I agree that we must win these next two, but I truly felt that we needed to sweep the Rangers in series. I am a die hard M's fan who's been living in Los Angeles for the last 6 years and as much as I despise the Angels and all their Mickey Mouse no knowledge fans I have to admit that they have proven recently that once they get a lead on the division they do everything not to lose it. M's better turn the ship around soon, because the Angels don't go on losing streaks like they did in 95
Posted by Sounders
11:04 AM, May 07, 2008
This is your captain speaking: Smoke em if ya got em, we're goin down.
Posted by Brennan
11:05 AM, May 07, 2008
Geoff,
Love you man, but you are writing the same blog entry everyday it seems like lately.
How about an entry about all the Griffey stuff blowing up?
Thanks
Posted by Novice
11:09 AM, May 07, 2008
this looks like a case where Perlozza hasnt been able to reach out to the hitters like he should. His early season gameplans arent working out and as a result is hurting McClarens overall hitting focus. maybe a turn around will help if the FO doesnt do anyhting
Posted by StumpDawg
11:19 AM, May 07, 2008
Geoff - do you think this team has quit on McLaren? Watching the last two games, the body language indicates a team going through the motions a) when they get a lead (the Monday shutdown in offense after jumping to a big lead)and then last night (and maybe over the weekend in New York? - didn't see those games) after the other team jumps to a lead.
Posted by Mint Husky
11:23 AM, May 07, 2008
It's getting a bit redundant. Every game comes down to "so-and-so has to pitch well and this offense needs to wake up." So far the pitching has been less than stellar, and the offense got lost on the way up from Peoria.
I have no faith in this team. What have they shown us they're any good at this year? Nothing. Why should we believe they can turn this around? There haven't even been any "flashes of brilliance."
Posted by kevin_ess
11:27 AM, May 07, 2008
Dear Geoff,
I'm just writing here in the comments section to complain like so many "fans" here do. I don't like your post today. or yesterday's post. Your comments have upset the delicate balance of my fragile life. Could you change my diaper?
Good god, people. Be thankful we have a journalist that doesn't put a homerish spin on the Mariners' travails. Perhaps those who are unhappy with Geoff's posts may want to lobby for a Rick Rizzs blog?
Posted by dbd_mack
11:30 AM, May 07, 2008
Part of the fun of going to a game is partaking in consumption. With $3.75 gallon of gas eating into budgets, The M's would be wise to lower their food/drink/merchandise prices and then advertise the heck out of it. Approach it with a "sympathetic for the working man" approach. It would be nice to see the players maybe interacting with the younger fans a bit more too.
I can walk to Safeco Field for a game, but I'd rather watch it at home eating for less than what a beer cost there. If the sun doesn't come out soon, don't be surpised to see this record broken again.
Posted by BrianL
11:31 AM, May 07, 2008
Is there a point where we have to concede that the "anti-trade" crowd may have been right? This team was more than just a starting-pitcher away from being competitive? We're getting near that point.
Dave Cameron outlines the situation the Mariners are in: there are five days to turn this team around. This The rest of this homestand needs to be go 4-1 in order for the team to have any realistic shot at making the playoffs. Even in that situation, they have to play .608 baseball the rest of the year.
.608 baseball is extremely hard to do. Anything more becomes borderline impossible.
The offense and defense have been terrible this season, areas that the stathead community were worried about. There is a very real chance that this team finishes under .500 this season if things don't change quickly. Even worse, there is a good chance this team finishes last in the AL-West.
That is flat-out embarrassing.
Posted by lamda
11:32 AM, May 07, 2008
Geoff - you gotta come back from the ledge too friend. All your posts lately have been saying how this or that game is soo important or the season is over type stuff. Maybe you are reading too many peoples posts, hehe. The season is not over by the 6th week of a 24 week season.
Posted by Scanman
11:50 AM, May 07, 2008
Way to go M's fans. Thank you for staying at home last night. This speaks louder than all of our rant's in this blog. To this the F.O. will listen. Keep it up and in no time they will start changing this bunch of losers. Please, don't go to the games until the F.O. listens to us.
Posted by Malcolm Shelley
11:53 AM, May 07, 2008
What about other roster changes? Jacque Jones? Corey Patterson? Nick Johnson? Barry Bonds? Yes, some of these are unlikely (extremely) but all would help and all are doable. The front office has made changes. Should they make more?
Posted by Turn out the Lights
11:58 AM, May 07, 2008
Any chance McLaren will resign due to personal reasons.
The highs aren't quite high enough, the lows just too low. Something like that. Wishful thinking
One or two key additions aren't going to make the difference for the entire team unless its a new coach. Initially Griffey might put more butts in the seats but when the charm wears off and stupid decisions are still being made, then what?
We need a new Skipper
Posted by geezer
11:59 AM, May 07, 2008
Barry Bonds = instantly better team. Just do it already.
Posted by Seattle Sports Blog
12:00 PM, May 07, 2008
All I can say is that I've been asking the same thing for the LAST 3 YEARS on my blog: Fire Bavasi, Fire Armstrong, Fire Lincoln, Fire McLaren, and move the fences in at Safeco. Otherwise, this team owned by a bunch of passive people will NEVER make it to the world series. It's time for MAJOR overhaul with this organization, bottom line.
This team has talent, it's a matter of how to use it. Ichiro, Beltre, Lopez, Ibanez, and Y. Bent. are a good enough nucleus to build around.
Seattle Sports Blog Guy
Posted by Novice
12:02 PM, May 07, 2008
Bloomquist rivals all those FA's with his power and speed. we dont need any of those guys becasue they are all brad wilkersons. We have plenty of pop off the bench which is key in intimidation factors, our proven slugger on the bench has the gear to be those guys.
Posted by Stu
12:02 PM, May 07, 2008
Don't go to the games? I'm not even going to watch them on the tube. I've got better better things to watch, like Dancing With the Stars or Home Shopping Network.
Go Rangers. Put this team out of its misery.
Posted by Scanman
12:08 PM, May 07, 2008
Geoff, its finally come to this-----WERE MAD AS HELL AND WE WON'T TAKE IT ANYMORE" No more losing, no more over priced concessions, no more over priced parking, on more way over priced tickets, and no more of the Hype.
Posted by scrapiron
12:13 PM, May 07, 2008
What's real interesting is that so many people are saying that "Bavasi is an idiot, they should have never traded away Jones." What they fail to realize is that of all the acquisitions, they have done fine for the Mariners. No one is doing well that was traded away by the Mariners. George Sherrill is the only one that can be considered a success so far with his 11 saves, but he's also been rocked a few times so his ERA is pretty high too. Probably better as a setup man like he was in Seattle.
ACQUISITIONS
Bedard 1.82 ERA
Silva 4.20 ERA
DEPARTURES
Jones .233 AVG
Sherrill 4.97 ERA
Guillen .165
Broussard .159 (rumors are swirling that he's about to be DFA'd)
So as bad as the Mariners are this year, look at how bad they could have been with all the above players on their roster instead.
Posted by Scott
12:15 PM, May 07, 2008
I am reminded of Return of the Jedi. At the end, Darth Vader asks Luke to take off his mask, but Luke says no because Vader would die, Vader replies, "Nothing can stop that now."
That is the M's 2008 season. There is no move that can be made to salvage this season. They simply are not good enough and there are not available hitters that are good enough to turn it around.
So, go get Griffey as long as it doesn't cost you much in the way of players. Why? He won't help win games, but speaking from a purely business stand point, he will sell tickets.
Now, this season should be about finding out if Bedard is worth extending, getting Wlad and Clement ML at bats, finding a team that is desperate enough to give us a legit prospect at the deadline for Ibanez, and remembering the good old days while we watch Jr. play in Seattle once more.(Until he goes on the DL)
This team is not going to the playoffs, and nothing can stop that now.
Posted by Kyle
12:22 PM, May 07, 2008
Ok. so im getting pretty tired of the same story everynight. richie cant hit. plain and simple he has been geting worse every season. release him already. Even if it does cost the mariners 14 mil. its not woth having him on the team.
Im not a barry bonds fan but he will boost attendace incredibly! thats what he did for the giants. Bring him in
Posted by Kent
12:29 PM, May 07, 2008
I think everyone has got to chill a little bit, it's the 7th of May. Granted they need to pick it up soon but the season won't be over if they don't win the next two games...the Angels and the As will have their bumps in the road too eventually. Baseball is a long season and lots of things can and have happened, so don't lose your M's jersey just yet...
Posted by jherz13
12:32 PM, May 07, 2008
Geoff,
Calling Griffey "another sub-.700 OPS DH type" is just plain wrong...insultingly wrong!
He's been in the Major Leagues for 19 years and has never finished below .784 since his rookie season. Yes, his OPS is .689 currently, but over 144 games last year he cracked 30 HR's and had an OPS of .868
Griffey is a legend in Seattle unlike Edgar, Buhner, Alvin Davis, or A-Rod. He IS the answer to our current problems (in my opinion). I just wish you wouldn't use language like "stop wasting your own time with the Griffey thoughts. He isn't going to help this team dig its way out of this mess." You're wrong...(in my opinion)
I've never said this about you cuz I respect your knowledge of the game, but you sound very naive in properly accessing the Griffey rumors.
Posted by Broberg
12:32 PM, May 07, 2008
The couple of people saying, "Its only May" need to stop and think a little bit. The Mariners have dug themselves a huge hole here that won't just go away with one good month of the season. From this point on I would be happy if we aren't more than 10 games out by August because we are headed for a much worse season than that.
Posted by scrapiron
12:42 PM, May 07, 2008
On May 21, 2007 the Colorado Rockies were 9 games below .500.
That equals the fourth-biggest deficit overcome by a team that has reached the postseason.
The Mariners sit 6 games below .500 on May 7th and are getting close to historic proportions
of deficit to overcome if they don't start winning fast.
Most games below .500 to overcome for a team that has reached the postseason
15 GB - 2005 Houston Astros
10 GB - 2001 Oakland A's
10 GB - 2003 Florida Marlins
9 GB - 2007 Colorado Rockies
9 GB - 1995 New York Yankees
9 GB - 1996 St.Louis Cardinals
9 GB - 2007 Chicago Cubs
Posted by Caesar Geronimo
12:43 PM, May 07, 2008
jherz13 go cry about Griffey somewhere else. He's a stiff and he's the last guy this team needs.
Posted by Cranky J
12:45 PM, May 07, 2008
2008 Seattle Mariners Marketing Slogan (Revised):
"I'm the only winner on this team. The rest of 'em, they're losers. Either by birth, or by choice." -- Jack Parkman, Major League II
Posted by ChicoV
12:47 PM, May 07, 2008
Solid post Geoff. Except for....
'These are not good teams the M's are facing right now and it's imperative that they use these games to make headway in the standings. '
If the teams that are beating us every night are not good then what does that say about our team?
We were swept by a Yankees team that had no A-Rod, no Posada and rocky starting pitching, we have made rookie call ups look like Cy Young. We have elevated a rebuilding team in Baltimore to a contender and we are behind another perpetually rebuilding team in Oakland. We've had a 4 error game were 3 of 4 infielders muffed plays followed by a 2 error night.
Pathetic comes to mind.
The grounder past Lopez is a benchable offense although he is one of the lone bright spots offensively. Even weekend softball players would have dove for that ball.
No Defense, no offense and a pitching staff that knows 2 runs scored against them is the end.
Pathetic comes to mind.
Posted by NOmoJO
12:54 PM, May 07, 2008
I heard that the next Mariner bobblehead handout will be wearing a life vest.
Posted by David Gee
12:55 PM, May 07, 2008
7 1/2 games wouldn't seem like much, but this is 7 1/2 games behind a team missing its #s 1 and 2 starting pitchers, it's #3 batter slumping, and soon the # 1 will return.
We needed to be UP 7 1/2 games at this point.
A bigger problem is that this is a heartless ballclub. I've never seen a bigger bunch of quitters wearing Mariner uniforms. I hate to compare these guys to the 2001 team, but even when the 2001 team lost you were on the edge of your seat thinking that they were going to win, and most of the time when facing a deficit those guys at least put themselves in the position to pull the game out. These guys? They don't even try. They're not very likable and that's why the fans are staying away.
Posted by ChicoV
12:56 PM, May 07, 2008
To johnny mac - the pitchers don't swing bats, they don't usually get chances to make great catches and shouldn't be expected to throw no hitters because their team is only going to score one run and they know it. We have one of the more experienced coaching staffs in baseball right now, hard to imagine how that bunch could get better without adding a larussa, cox or torre.
Scoring in that first inning for the Mariners was a must and they didn't. That was just as fatal as bautista not being able to throw a strike. MHO.
Posted by Ben
1:00 PM, May 07, 2008
Griffey may not "be" the answer.....but he certainly could be "a part" of the answer...
Let's not dismiss one of the greatest hitters of all time so lightly Geoff!!!!
Posted by Jared
1:22 PM, May 07, 2008
Well if we fail to win the last two games of this series and take the Chicago series then I will really want Griffey on the team just for the fact that I have a reason to go to some more games this year.
Posted by Bill
1:25 PM, May 07, 2008
I don't see this team being any better minus Bedard, but retaining Jones and Sherill and having H.Ram, Baek, or Weaver pitching every 5 days.
Sherill was so underused last season because Mac thinks leftys can only pitch to leftys in relief. Does anyone believe that would change this season?
Having Wlad in RF vs. Jones is probably an upgrade, based on offense alone, since Wlad is hitting for more power. Defensively, Jones is probably better because he's more athletic, but Wlad has been solid so far. Either would be better defensively than Wilkerson or Guillen.
If the team were winning this would be a non-issue.
Posted by alpenfan
1:28 PM, May 07, 2008
I think it's already too late. Are the Mariners 8 likely by some miracle to be games better than the Angels for the rest of the season? I don't think so.
There are too many teams ahead for the wildcard.
The offense has a big inning every once in a great while. But it's not a sign of life. It's more like a patient that twitches a little even after he's dead.
Posted by MG
1:30 PM, May 07, 2008
It's a bit unrealistic to expext offensive improvement over last years club with the starters the M's began the season with. But to expect good things from it after adding two Tripple-A players is absurd. Without adding another bat or two the M's are not going to get it done this year. Yep - STILL re-building.......
Posted by slider15
1:30 PM, May 07, 2008
geoff.. you say the same thing everytime you write....As I said....I wrote..... As I mentioned.... can't waste any more time....The Mariners have to win........................
Write about something we don't know, you're as boring as watching the Mariners!
Posted by Ben
1:42 PM, May 07, 2008
Well at least we have the best record in our division against our own division... there's a little moral victory... except we lose when it counts.
Posted by Fred
1:44 PM, May 07, 2008
If this team is going to rebound from their dismal start, management had better make some tough decisions and make them quickly. First, sit Sexon. For the remainder of the season, if the change produces results. Sexon has proven he's not much of a batting average hitter. Home runs - maybe...but we need to drive in runners on a more consistent basis. Second, make it known to the players that a batting average going forward of under 250 is unacceptable performance. Track the averages from now on...pretend the season has started over. Give each player one week. If it doesn't happen, sit that player down and play someone else. Then give that player another try again later. Players need to prove their worth. Ichiro has season after season. But no one else has. Try drastically changing the batting order. Try something different!!! At least the fans will see management is trying to improve rather than accepting poor results, which appears to be the case now. Thus the low attendance.
And why is a pitcher allowed to throw almost 90 pitches in three innings. That's "stupidity". Can't professional baseball people tell when a pitcher is not pitching well before he's thrown 90 pitches? That really makes me wonder about the quality of the Mariner manager and coaches.
Posted by tallahassee-mariner's fan
1:47 PM, May 07, 2008
Lets send the whole squad down to Tacoma, rename this the Rainer's Blog and we could all just start following the Rainiers. I'm sure Sexson would clean up against 19 year old AAA pitching!!!
Posted by getRdone
1:57 PM, May 07, 2008
Nothing like beating a dead horse.
Get rid of McLaren. If we are to rebuild lets get a different coach. McLaren might have watched a lot of big league games but he has yet to prove that he was paying attention during them.
He makes one bone head decision after another. Blowouts like last night don't matter as much but his calls during the close games that we have lost do matter. A good coach makes the different in close games. Lets get Pinnella back ASAP
Posted by scrapiron
2:02 PM, May 07, 2008
Si.Com's John Heyman reports that the Mariners are the fourth most likely to sign Mark Texeira this off season. The Yankees are looking like the favorite. Be very afraid, M's fans.
If the Mariners don't sign Texeira, who will play first base for the Mariners next season? Would they, shudder the thought, think about extending an offer to Sexson again?
Posted by Turn Out The Lights
2:06 PM, May 07, 2008
get er done
I definitely hear the argument to get rid of McLaren and I think its valid. He didn't prove himseld last year during the slide that smashed the post season dreams. I personally like watching the post game interviews seeing him with that smug look on his face getting myself ready to have some wealth of knowledge imparted on me but always hearing the same thing. We didn't make our pitches, were not hitting the ball, the pitching coach made the decision to pull the starter thats why the bullpen gave up the lead. Only once have I ever heard him take ownership of a loss and never once about a decision that cost the game which there have been several that he was responsible for.
Posted by Resin isn't Cheating
2:07 PM, May 07, 2008
Billy Beane continually puts out teams that outperform the Mariners at a fraction of the cost. I'll take that kind of sham.
Mike you are a reasonable guy. We both agree we don't need to reduce payroll and not spend money. We probably both agree that the money we are spending annually on this club is money poorly spent in player contracts and guaranteed money given to veterans that aren't producing and so forth.
I think if you look back at what I wrote I specifically stated Beane has made some good deals and signings. You pointing out that Bean has out performed Bill Bavasi the last several years is a testament to that. Although, I would argue outperforming Bavasi as GM isn't a tough task.
The sham part of Moneyball I was referring to is how Beane refuses to draft high school kids high in the draft which is stupid in my opinion. Sure he's had success in drafting Blanton and Street from college but you are really limiting your scouts by saying a high school kid is a wasted pick.
Also, the book slammed traditional scouting, and they used the 2002 Oakland draft as evidence that Beane is a genius, and that sabermetrics is the reason for it. Not exactly the blending of both worlds for the best player evaluation results type book.
Remember this is all based on the premise that the 2002 draft was a brilliant success. Now everyone references Moneyball as the bible of sabermetrics, which is based on the inaccurate evaluation of the 2002 A's draft.
Yet the first round pick "fat catcher" is now out of baseball and the best players selected were Nick Swisher and Joe Blanton. Hardly a Grade A draft if you evaluate it now as opposed to looking at it only a year later as Moneyball did. Then again Swisher is better than Corey "God" Patterson, so some might foam at the mouth over landing Swisher and Blanton. If you told me it was an average draft, you wouldn't get an argument out of me. Thus the sham part of every saberhead yelling "Moneyball, Moneyball!" at the top of their lungs when talk of replacing Bavasi surfaces.
Posted by NewFan
2:11 PM, May 07, 2008
Just my luck to come to a new country, new city and follow a team in a slump. Generally I like supporting the underdag - but this team shouldn't be an underdog right. Just underperforming, and underperforming with no heart.
The good news I saw was that Balentien impressed again and also that I won't have to see Batista pitch again for a while.
What I do not like seeing is a defeated team with no heart - in any sport. Whenever they panned to the dug out - every one seemed resigned, defeated. there was no sign of defiance or of anyone trying to rally the spirits - even just for respectability. It has looked to me for some games that even the players think the season is over.
Posted by boog
2:16 PM, May 07, 2008
Geoff-
I am sorry but you're an idiot! Have you ever considered that Griffey is not hitting well because of the situation he is in over there in Cincy? The fans really don't root for him, a team that is likely already out of the race, and the front office only wants him there until he hits 600. All long time Mariner fans know that Jr. is an emotional player and I truly believe that when Jr. comes to Seattle he will prove that he still has quite a bit left in the tank. We saw what he did when he was here last year. While he may not be the entire "answer" , I think that he can be an very important piece. Two things that he will be that are sorely needed are : 1. A veteran leader in the clubhouse that is not afraid to speak up and 2. A clutch hitter that will drive in runs with runners on-base. Unlike most of our hitters who wilt under pressure, Jr. excels in pressure situations.
Posted by usesomelogic
2:17 PM, May 07, 2008
Geoff.....I completely disagree about Griffey. No he may not be the magical answer to the problems the M's have. Truth is, there is no one available who would be the answer. They need a true #3 hitter and NOT Ichiro.
A left handed, high average, high power, good speed, and a great SO to walk ratio. I don't think there's one out there. Last year, Guillen wasn't perfect but he did a good enough job.
Griffey may not be the miracle that saves this team but again maybe he will.....the emotional factors that go into bringing him back might be what this team needs.
Geoff sometimes all the stats don't factor more importatn issues. People look at different calculations all the time to figure things out and every year there's some new formula.
It's time to throw it all out the door, do something bold to help this line-up. Bonds may not help, Griffey may not help, Frank Thomas may not have helped but it's time to take some chances on some of the best hitters ever to play the game.
Why we gave Wilkerson 3 million, kept Vidro if he's not going to hit in the #2 spot and kept Cairo is beyond me. Let's try something else, let's try brining in some of these big hitters and see what happens.
We've got a great rotation and not taking some chances on these guys is thrwing away everyone's efforts.
Posted by Steve-o
2:18 PM, May 07, 2008
Somebody shoot me in the neck already because i can't take this!
Posted by kujo
2:21 PM, May 07, 2008
"another sub-.700 OPS DH type"
FWIW, not all sub-.700 hitters are created equal.
Griffey's OPS for April
2005 .681
2006 .849 (only 31 AB)
2007 .770
2008 .768
Final OPS
2005 .945 35HR
2006 .802 27HR
2007 .868 30HR
2008 .?
Another plus .350 OBP with power would look pretty good on this team. All you have to do is dump Cairo or Burke, split time with Ibanez and let who ever is hitting better of Clement or Joh get the AB's at catcher. That's a simple move with a big impact.
Posted by kujo
2:26 PM, May 07, 2008
BTW is Mac's quote "I'm anxious for him to get his 600th homer" a hint at something?
Posted by Faceplant
2:30 PM, May 07, 2008
"Another plus .350 OBP with power would look pretty good on this team. All you have to do is dump Cairo or Burke, split time with Ibanez and let who ever is hitting better of Clement or Joh get the AB's at catcher."
Oh, and the players you would have to give up in a trade. That makes it a not so simple move.
Griffey is 38 years old, and is easily near the end of his career. Giving up anything of value for him would be monumentally stupid.
"Geoff.....I completely disagree about Griffey. No he may not be the magical answer to the problems the M's have. Truth is, there is no one available who would be the answer. They need a true #3 hitter and NOT Ichiro."
Cough..Bonds...Cough, Cough.....
"A left handed,"
Bonds.
"high average,"
Bonds.
"high power,"
Bonds.
"good speed,"
Cairo.
"and a great SO to walk ratio."
Bonds.
"I don't think there's one out there."
I hear ya.
Posted by fred
2:32 PM, May 07, 2008
Enough of this Get Griffey or Get Bonds stuff. Given what Bavasi has done to the roster---and given the fat contracts he has handed out to mediocre talent---the team has little choice but to go with what it has, letting Clement and Balentien play every day to develop their talents.
It bears repeating, though, that Ibanez, Vidro, Sexson and Johjima might have some value to contending teams. Deal them now and eat whatever part of their outsize salaries is necessary. The Mariners are doomed for this season, with or without them. Best to clean house now and make way for the future---hopefully under the leadership of a new general manager.
Posted by getRdone
2:32 PM, May 07, 2008
Yeah Cairo sucks thats for sure. I think Vidro could get his average up if he had more ABs he wasn't doing to poorly in the RBI department before the call ups starting decreasing his time at the plate. If we don't release him it might be nice to get him back in the line up. He has always hit for a good average and typically puts the ball in play with runners on the bases. He needs his ABs to get going though. Playing every other day or in a platoon format doesn't really work well for him
Posted by BrianL
2:32 PM, May 07, 2008
So, Resin
According to you, the entire basis of Moneyball (which was a book not written by Billy Beane) is a sham because it discourages drafting high-school players in the draft? Wow.
As far as that line of reasoning goes, I agree wholeheartedly with the idea that you shouldn't spend high draft picks on high school players. It's too soon to know what kind of player they will be, whereas college players have several years worth of playing time to analyze. If you're going to draft a high school player, use a low-round pick. Again, it's a matter of low-risk/high-reward player evaluation. A High school player has a greater risk of not panning out than a college player. Are there exceptions, sure. Grady Sizemore drafted in the third round. Someone I graduated with last year was drafted in the third round as well.
Now, you pointing out the "fat catcher" being further proof that Moneyball is a "sham" is tasteless cherry-picking on your part (if you had bothered reading further into the story, you would know that the "fat catcher" retired because of personal issues and not because of a lack of talent - career 809 OPS in the minor leagues was exactly what Beane wanted).
Take a look at Oakland's roster right now. For the most part, it is comprised of young talent that Beane either drafted, or grabbed from other franchises in trades. All of the successful rosters have been a result of strong talent evaluation. I don't think you're in much of a position to criticize Beane's drafting strategy. He's had a lot more success with his organizations draft picks than most other MLB franchises.
If you don't like moneyball, fine. Replace the word with Sabermetric. Replace it with James-Analysis. I don't care what you call it. All I know is that it's working for Cleveland, Oakland, Boston, and Tampa Bay.
Posted by boog
2:38 PM, May 07, 2008
"Oh, and the players you would have to give up in a trade. That makes it a not so simple move."
I dont think so. The Reds are not going to want much at all for him. Think about it, if they don't trade him this year they either have to pay him $16.5M and keep him nest year or pay him $4M and he is a free agent. I am sure they would be fine with a decent AA prospect and some cash.
Posted by Chris
2:46 PM, May 07, 2008
To add to my Mariner Depression... I'm going to start listing off "BONEHEAD BAVASI" moves...
Starting with:
2007. One year, $8.3 million.
Not much explanation needed. A look at the stats tells the story: an 0-6 record with a 14.32 ERA in his first six starts.
Please add to the list everybody.
Posted by Chris
2:48 PM, May 07, 2008
Jarrod Washburn
2006. Four years, $37.5 million
Posted by Chris
2:51 PM, May 07, 2008
Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez.
Okay, so we had Lopez and Betancourt, and maybe we never see the guy come up from Tacoma... but what was the point of Perez? We were not contending, we had Broussard to be the DH.
Posted by Chris
2:56 PM, May 07, 2008
Brad Wilkerson - a waste of 3 mil. What corporation/organization would not be pissed about wasting that kind of loot?
Carl Everett - 1 year 4 mil
Scott Spezio - 3 years for 9.9mil?
I guess the 1 year for roughly 3-4 mil players are okay to sign and release without any consequences.
Posted by Faceplant
3:00 PM, May 07, 2008
"The sham part of Moneyball I was referring to is how Beane refuses to draft high school kids high in the draft which is stupid in my opinion."
This is overblown. Beane certainly prefers college players (and he's not alone), but he will draft them, and he will draft them early. Just using 2005 as an example, Beane drafted high school pitchers in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, and then again in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds.
Posted by Patrick F.
3:07 PM, May 07, 2008
Geoff tells it, how he sees it. I think we're all seeing the same thing. The offense is terrible, and lately when we're down 2-0, the game is over. Miquel Batista is obviously hurt, so why not put him on the DL or do we have to watch have another terrible outing?
I'm still optimistic, because I think this team can go on a run, they just need to get it started. The only problem is they make every team's mediocre pitchers look like Cy Young winners, especially Ponson last night.
If Oakland is playing this well, the M's should be able to as well.
Posted by Mike
3:12 PM, May 07, 2008
Resin---I agree that "Moneyball" was overly hard on scouting. It's been a few years since I read the book but I seem to recall that the author did set up the narrative positioning Beane's outlook in a positive light toward the scouts. As to whether that draft was good or bad you can only deal with probabilities but I'm happy to leave "Moneyball" out of the Beane-Bavasi discussion. We seem to agree Beane has done a better overall job.
But I don't see the SABR crowd promoting "Moneyball" so much as I see the ant-SABR crowd using it and Oakland's lack of World Series rings to "prove" these newfangled statistics don't mean anything. Perhaps we are both right and just influenced by our personal biases.
Posted by GeoW
3:24 PM, May 07, 2008
Scott's post (at 12:15) is right on. That's the formula for semi-enjoying the rest of the season.
Could someone enlighten me on a detail of the major league bargaining agreement - are the M's permitted, without his agreement, to trade Johjima (or any player, for that matter) the same year they sign him to a new contract?
Posted by Ziasudra
3:27 PM, May 07, 2008
To ChicoV - good point, the M's have some of the best coaches in the league. That points to the obvious conclusion, that their leader doesn't know what he's doing. What other conclusion is possible? Clue me in. . . .
To those who think Griffey will put fans into the stadium - I agreee, he will - for about two games, then it's back to emptiness. . . .
Posted by DugoutNut
3:42 PM, May 07, 2008
Bill Shankin, it the Los Angeles Times today has suggested that Barry Bonds would be best served in the Mariner lineup. Not sure if I should laugh or cry. What you do you all think?
Posted by kranky
3:59 PM, May 07, 2008
The different pieces of the team have to work together in order to win and that just is not happening now. There is either a lack of leadership, or something is just poisoning the team effort.
The best player on the team, Ichiro, can't be the leader becaue he's just too idiosyncratic. The highest paid guy, Sexson (or he used to be the highest paid anyway), can't be the leader because he is sucking wind just watching out for himself. Raul and Beltre are just too mild mannered to grab these guys by the scruff of the neck. The rookies can't do it because they are rookies. Maybe once Putz gets his confidence back he can start glowering at people to motivate them.
I blame MacLaren and Bavasi for putting the team together wrong. But someone stepping up, a la Mark McLemore or Jose Guillen, and reminding these guys they are professional ball players and have to act like it would be most welcome.
Posted by Turn out the Lights
4:18 PM, May 07, 2008
The team definitely needs some good leadership. If the coach doesn't provide the stimulus than who? I know that players can step it up in leadership roles but they still aren't the coach. That type of leadership has to come from the top.
McLaren isn't providing that
Posted by Steve-o
4:22 PM, May 07, 2008
Take me out to the baalllgame, take me out to the crooowd. Buy me some ballplayers and a newww coach, i dont think we will ever get back. cuz its shoot shoot shoot in the forehead cuz they wont win another gaaaaame.. cuz its one, two , three strikes your out at every freaking mariner gaaaaaaaaaaameee!! CHA!!!!!
Posted by Lenny Randle's Breath
4:41 PM, May 07, 2008
Ok, who here believes they have any idea who should be leading who in the Mariner clubhouse? That's for their team to decide. Give me a break.
I'm looking forward to watching Bedard pitch tonight.
GO MARINERS!!!
Posted by Scanman
5:13 PM, May 07, 2008
Lenny are you a Rah Rah kind of guy? Do you feel a 500 winning percentage is ok? Well a lot of use are unwilling to settle for mediocrity. We expect excellence, drive and hustle. We can no longer accept the status quo. Everyone, just stay away from the ballpark and we will be heard.
Posted by dddddd
5:14 PM, May 07, 2008
Yeah Jones is really hitting and sherrill blew save #2 on his way to poor season. watch...Bedard is the real deal
Posted by Resin isn't Cheating
5:20 PM, May 07, 2008
All I know is that it's working for Cleveland
What ever floats your boat Brian L. I wasn't even addressing any of my posts to you but as usual you can't control yourself.
The past five years prior to last year's collapse in the ALCS, the Indians did not qualify for post season play. All while Antonetti was in Cleveland.
If Cleveland advances past the first round this year and somehow makes a dramatic turnaround to their current season, I would be quite impressed.
Posted by Justin H.
5:32 PM, May 07, 2008
Resin -
Agree with the belief "Moneyball" concept is, or was, over-rated. Nevertheless, you do have to like a team that will be happy taking a walk. Teahan was also a decent pick in '02, if I remember correctly.
Posted by Candy Gram
5:39 PM, May 07, 2008
ReXin,
You have been a laughingstock of the Blogosphere for the past several years.
Posted by Lenny Randle's Breath
5:41 PM, May 07, 2008
Scanman - Not sure what you mean by "rah rah" kind of guy. Steve Ballmer crazy rah rah or drunken get asked to be quiet by the usher rah rah? Closest to the 2nd one I guess.
I wish we were playing 500 right now but we're a crappy 14-20.
I'm not happy with the way the M's are playing right now. I just believe they're going to play better and that there's only been 34 games. I predicted they'd finish 1st this year so I'm willing to eat crow-just not until dinner time.
What I don't like is reality being twisted and crazy comments and posts.
These guys play hard. They are very good at what they do. In fact I believe they are excellent. They are in the majors.
I've been watching and rah rah-ing for the M's since before you could tell Dave N. liked to have a few. If everybody stays away from Safeco who am I going to be able to have a beer with when I get back up there for a game? I love looking at the viaduct teetering, while I'm having a few...
Posted by BrianL
5:42 PM, May 07, 2008
Very nice Resin, only use -part- of what I wrote as a quote. You're a regular spin-doctor.
Posted by rcwill
6:42 PM, May 07, 2008
Geoff,
You're starting to sound like a Mariners fan now! Welcome to the spiral. Bavasi needs to be fired. McLaren has reached the Peter Principle, and Vidro and Sexson need to be flushed. You have finally drunk the kool-ade and submitted to the pessimism - and not one word about Toronto or hockey.
Posted by Teej
6:57 PM, May 07, 2008
"The past five years prior to last year's collapse in the ALCS, the Indians did not qualify for post season play. All while Antonetti was in Cleveland."
Neither did the Mariners. But Cleveland at least Cleveland used those five years to build, not run in place. Now Cleveland has a good team, and we, to be honest, don't. See the difference here? Cleveland was better than every team in baseball except Boston last season. And they're still a far better team than the Mariners, all while knowing how to spend money in the right spots.
Jul 4, 08 - 03:16 PM
Detroit Tigers at Mariners: 07/04 game thread
Jul 4, 08 - 12:28 PM
Holiday optimism
Jul 3, 08 - 11:13 PM
Better opposition tonight
Jul 3, 08 - 08:56 PM
Detroit Tigers at Mariners: 07/03 game thread
Jul 3, 08 - 05:45 PM
Hernandez throws, Rowland-Smith blogs, Clement struggles

nwautos
Associated Press Study: Fatal crashes down in Washington Last year Washington's roads were the scene of the fewest fatal crashes since 1955. According...
Post a comment
nwjobs
Post a comment
Michelle Goodman blogs about work/life balance.
Five reasons to stick with a job you hate -- for now
Post a comment

- Steve Kelley | My treatment of Bedard has been unfair
- Is Washington's tax exemption on bullion a gold mine?
- 747-8 soars smoothly on first outing
- Super Bowl ads: Betty White, Bud Light, big laughs
- Man found shot dead in pickup truck in Seattle
- Sex, drug rumors swirl about N.Y. Gov. Paterson
- Lewis-McChord soldier charged with abusing 4-year-old over alphabet lesson
- Seattle is first U.S. stop for Picasso exhibit
- Alaska Air dropping Jones Soda beverages, going back to Coca-Cola
- Body found in landing gear of NY-to-Tokyo flight
- Seattle is first U.S. stop for Picasso exhibit
- 747-8 soars smoothly on first outing
- City, Vulcan push higher South Lake Union height limits
- Commentary: Microsoft's creative destruction
- Snap out of your photo funk: How to make sense of all those piles of images
- Wine Adviser | Oregon's quality pinots join the bargain ranks
- Belltown boulevard could be completed by early next year
- All You Can Eat | Portage chef Vuong Loc takes Cremant space in Madrona
- Jerry Large | Learning not to copy China
- Rigorous college-prep classes skyrocketing in Washington state








Posted by pat
10:40 AM, May 07, 2008
the white sox are a very good team, their hitting is just struggling right now. they have one of the best ERAs in the game, though, and that lineup has a number of big hitters in it.