a

Well, I hate to complain when we won, but I will - the firstbase ump clearly made a (deliberate) mistake when he called Beltre out on that double play. Cost us at least one run, maybe more. He's the same ump, who, behind the plate the night before didn't give Silva a strikeout on a pitch the batter swung at and missed, and Joh caught it cleanly. the ump ruled it a foul tip and that it hit the dirt. Neither happened. Joh pled with him to ask for help from the 1st base ump, but egomania took over,and I think he had it in for us today, as well.
I hate lousy officiating.

They can't afford long stretches of losing games anymore the rest of the season. And with as streaky and inconsistent as this team is, that just doesn't seem doable.

I'll still watch but won't except much, like a miracle comeback or something. The holes are still there for the M's. Like Raul in LF.

Been watching the Twins/Red Sox. Twins are everything the M's aren't. Young, hungry, no names, low payroll, good D, disciplined hitters, pitchers who throw strikes, well managed, good front office, fun to watch. If this season continues as it has so far it seems ahouse cleaning would be in order, top to bottom. Just my .02 cnts worth.

We need to keep bringing up the talent at AAA.

It is a waste to leave Reed, Feierabend and Dickey there while we mess around with Baek, Cairo and Vidro.

Those three moves would have immediate positive results on the roster.

oceansaway--

Bringing up Reed and Feierabend will do this team more harm than good. Reed was up here for 2 years (?) and look what he did. Feierabend had starts last year, and look what he did. This is what you are calling for?

The ump did miss the call today at first, but he was right last night on the third strike. Like the rest of us, he clearly saw Joh's glov touch the dirt. Then, Joh showed him his glove to prove he had caught it, but what he really showed him was that it was a "snow cone" catch. Which means it was the ball that touched the dirt and not only the glove which also means it was a trap. That is why he didnt have to ask for help.

Well said, Geoff. It's time for the M's to decide to make a statement to themselves, the AL West, and MLB that their proverbial heads are now unstuck from where the sun don't shine. We should expect no less than a sweep against the Rangers for this to happen.

Ditto, on the Mom's Day wishes!

The season is over.

Sorry, but we are talking about the team having to put up a .642 winning percentage the rest of the way, if you think it takes 94 wins to win the West (as I do).

If you thnk 90 wins will win the West, we have to put up a .610 winning percentage.

Earlier this week I listed the 17 teams in the past six seasons that played over .600 from May 4 to the end of the year. The average ERA+ for those teams was 114, if I remember correctly, while the average OPS+ of those teams was 113.

Coming into today, the Mariners' ERA+ and OPS+ were both sitting at 89. Yikes.

In other words, it is hard to see this roster playing at a .600 level the rest of the year. Teams that can put that kind of run together must be very good. The Mariners are most certainly not very good.

I'm positive that the public statements of Mariner officials will be positive, claiming they are still in it to win it. But if Bavasi was smart (I know, I know...), he'd start putting together a plan to re-tool for 2009.

Frankie:
Sorry but I don't agree. With your assessment of Reed and Fierb. They are turning in good numbers, just because their first seasons in the bigs were not A+, doesn't mean you are ready to give up on them.

If this team's offense could just get going the next 10 games we could be in good shape against Texas, SD, and Detroit.

Fact it, this season is shot. This team cannot go on an extended run as currently constituted.

What do we do from here to improve the offensive status quo?...I know it won't happen given our ownership, but trading Ichiro this season is something that has to be looked at. We could get 3-4 very solid prospects for him, and look towards 09 with renewed interest.
Ichiro, to me, is the most overrated star in baseball. He would be valuable to an already established offense, but cannot carry one, as it seems they try to do with him each year in Seattle.

Nice win today, you think the M's are going to take the pink bats with them to Texas?

WHy are people complaining about Ichiro? He has been OK. Yes, he is nnot hitting his "normal" 330 but his is much better the sub-200 averages of half the other team. Plushe has been stealing more often and has not made any defensive errors unlike the entire infield.

The season is hardly over, Adam, on May 11th. You have no clue how many victories it will take to win the AL West. The longer the A's and Rangers stay in the hunt, the lower number of wins will be required. A three or four team dogfight would be better for the M's to get back into contention.

Your percentage fear-factor is bogus, because you seem to be locked into the notion that the A's and Rangers MUST adhere to your "expert" pre-season predictions. Why coronate the Angels now? Last I looked they were in second place.

The more relevant question is whether the M's can find a team pulse on offense, NOW. These AL West matchups are especially important to the M"s. That's why a sweep of the Rangers is so critical to resuscitating our chances.

This season is NOT over yet. I have to admit that Geoff you are getting to me. It's mid May and we hear the negativity, on the cliff, need to step up etc. everynight. I have to admit it's wearing on me. We all know where they are. There is a lot of games left. It's fair to say this team has underperformed so far. Let's see if they can overperform soon too. Things have a way of workign themselves out.

As to bringing up more people? Who? Reed, Feiergbrand, Dickey? for who? You guys jumped on the Balentin / Clement bandwagon. You were 1 for 2 there. Balentin has been an add and Clememt is looking overmatched. I don't think that any of those three can make any kind of impact. Who is out? Vidro? I wouldn't cut a veteran for Reed? Reed has no power and a whole lot less experience than Vidro. Baek has been ok. And he isn't in that important of role anyway. When he comes in the game is usuallyout of hand anyway.

Let's see if they guys can overperform soon.

I think sometimes we have a tendancy to think of the M's like a video game team or a fantasy team. There you can blow up the team and rebuild it overnight with trades. Reality is much different.

There's only so much the M's can do and what it really comes down to is waiting to see if they turn it around or at least some of them turn their seasons around. Mid May is too early to say it's completely over, but if they are still 8 games out in a month, it's time to look towards next year.

ScottM - First of all, I didn't say the division winner was going to be the Angels. It could well be the A's. I fear what Beane has up his sleeve. But beyond that - I'm making an educated guess. You know, trying to inject some realism into the equation.

Over the past six years, the average number of wins by a division winner in the AL is 96. In the AL West over that same time span, the average is 95 wins. And last year, the Angels won 94. So while we can't predict the number of wins the West winner will have, I'm not pulling these numbers out of a hat.

Do you expect the Angels to go .500 the rest of the way and end up with 84 wins? I sure don't. They are too good, AND they are getting their ace back in a few days. Do you expect the A's to completely fall flat? But even if they did struggle home, in order to get to 85 wins, we'd have to win 57 percent of our games. That's a rate that a 93-game winning team plays at. Do you honestly think the Mariners are that good?

It's not that hard to run the math. Pick a win total for the division winner, and figure out how many wins the Mariners have to get to hit that number. You know, the 2008 Mariners. They of the 89 OPS+ and 89 ERA+.

I really don't think it is that much of a stretch to see the division winner getting 90+ wins. Tell me why not. And once we get into that territory, the Mariners have to play .610 ball the rest of the way - something not easy to do. Especially for this team. Almost 25% of the season is done. It's not early anymore, and we can start evaluating the team without running into problems about sample size.

The team isn't very good, and it has dug itself a huge hole behind two better teams.

But just so everyone feels warm and fuzzy, I'll amend my "The season is over" statement:

The season is very likely over.

Gotta love the unbacked optimism of some of the comments here. Adam is 100% right. Numbers.. right in our face. This team would have to go on an insane run the rest of the season to pull out 90 games. You really think they can with the offensive ineptitude they have shown?

Saying we have a shot to get to the playoffs is almost laughable at this point. This team is 2004 all over again but with a better pitching staff. I think we are lucky to get 2nd place this year. A .500 team if the M's start playing solid baseball right now. Even thats optimistic from what they've shown thus far.

For the Mariners to make the playoffs, the entire division would have to fall square on their faces right now. I don't see that happening.

It was only one win.

Anything less than a sweep of Texas this week, and I'm going to continue being as casual a fan as I have been now (no TV, sure as hell no contemplating going to a game in person, some radio if I happen to be in the car, read about it online later). A sweep of Texas, and I might just barely maybe think these guys have something in them.

The only other thing that would similarly get my attention is the firing of Mac or Bavasi. Or DFAing Washburn and bringing up Dickey to take his rotation spot.

I agree with Adam's reasoning, but I'm also not as coldly logical and rational as he is. I'm willing to hope, but these guys have to show some life first.

Here's a plan of action for my fandom heading into this series:

Mariners take 3 of 3 from Texas: WE'RE BACK, BABY!!!

2 of 3 (Hernandez and Bedard get wins): At least we're hitting, winning games we should win.

2 of 3 (Hernandez or Bedard drop one): Eh, I'm only worried about my fantasy stats.

1 of 3: Everybody get your toolkit, the bandwagon's going down soon... salvage your own parts and see what value you can get.

Get swept: Fire everyone. Epic failure. Free R.A. Dickey.

--Keith

Two thoughts on the "Ms have to play .600 ball to contend" argument:

Experiential qualification: last year from 5/22 to 8/24, the Ms played .624 ball (53-32). Yes, they were 20-21 on 5/22, and after 8/24 went into the huge tailspin we all know about. Yet, if last year's streaky team could play .624 ball for 3 full months, I think this year's team is capable of it as well. Why? The starting rotation is much, much better, and the bullpen looks better, healthier, and more experienced than last year.

Yes, the bats may be weaker (or they may not), but the bats do not have to be much better than *average* to win with Bedard and Felix pitching. (Frankly, I think the rotation can hold opposing teams to fewer than 4 runs 60% of the time, and I think this team is capable of scoring more than 3 runs--except when all the bats die at the same time. I simply cannot imagine that the bats will remain as bad as they were--all at the same time--for very long.) Yes, the Ms still need a consistent extra-base hitter (40+ doubles, 20 HRs and .310+ average), who won't go through 0-for-20 slumps like Beltre often does--and perhaps others.

Statistical qualification: the principle of "reversion to the mean" suggests that teams on a hot streak will lose a few games to revert to their long-term average (notice the Angels have lost 4 in a row). Likewise, teams that have lost 9 out of 10 will likely win the majority of their next 10+ games to revert to their long-term average. Obviously we don't know what the long-term averages are for each team, and we won't know until September 28. And that's the point--we simply cannot predict with sufficient accuracy to write off the season at this point. If
preseason predictions were normative, then the Rays would be much worse at this point, the Tigers much better, etc.

The Ms may be better than expected; they may be worse. There are 123 games to go before we know for sure.

Geoff, I hate to say this because you do seem like a good guy and write quality material, but I just want to say the team's lousy performance of late proves why people gave you such a hard time when you predicted the team to be in first. There were too many holes and questions in the roster to call this team a division champ. Its great they won today and they could turn it around, as well I expect them to eventually average out as the year goes on, similar to the struggles the Tigers went through earlier, but I don't expect them to win the division. Anyway, I hope for them to win it all every year, regardless of how I feel about their lousy FO management, so here's to them proving me wrong and you right!

overall geoff a fair assessement of the team and the division. i think balletine is doing better than you think. but the rest i hope you are right on. and yes felix....well the next few weeks are going to be a test of his maturity.

Didn't we talk about a sweep with the last series against Texas and look what happened. These Texas pitchers should come in nice and confident against this rag-tag lineup of hitters struggling to get to the Mendoza line. Mariners are the ones that will be swept.

Texas won the division in 1998 with 88 wins. As long as all four teams stay competitive and continue to beat up on each other then the Ms do not have to play like the 2001 Ms for the rest of the season. A 73-50 record would get them to the same record as last year which may be good enough. If they play much better than that and the Ms would be the hottest team going into the playoffs whether they won the division or were the wild-card. Their first 39 games have not given us any indication that they can play at this level but on paper anyway, the starting pitching is good enough to do this if the offense can even play average baseball. So there is still hope. By the 54 game mark we will know where the Ms stand.

Mac made a statement that should scare all M's personnel - fans, team members, FO people - what did he say? "I didn't notice any problem between Washburn and Johjima."
What's wrong with that statement? He's the only one in Seattle who hasn't noticed it. Washburn has refers to it more than once. It's the manager's job to notice such things even before the involved players notice it. How can he call the shots when he doesn't know what's happening?
"Clueless in Seattle."

Geoff, could you give us the scoop on Johjima as a catcher? Washburn's comments in Monday's paper were pretty strong, and not the first time h's alluded to problems with Johjima. Rumors said Jamie Moyer hated pitching to Johjima once upon a time. Burke catches Bedard. What's the truth in all this? Is Johjima a bad receiver? If so, why (other than the usual adjusting to America stuff people mention)? If so, why did the M's re-up him for three years? What should we believe, what should we dismiss? Is the tension with Johjima and some pitchers significant? Or are we reading too much into it?

It seems a bit absurd to continue talking about how we are x games behind the A's and Angels when we have the worst record in the AL and second worst record in all of baseball.

Additionally, this team was supposed to be able and avoid long losing streaks with its improved pitching. But, after just 39 games, we already have three separate losing streaks of 4+ games - and our longest winning streak is three games, which we have managed to do once.

As mentioned in previous posts, this "team" has shown me nothing that makes me think that they can play .600+ baseball the remainder of the season.

But congratulations to Mac and BB on winning one, they probably just bought themselves an extra month or so.

BTW, does anyone remember the squabble between BB and Marlins GM this offseason over Silvas contract. Well, who do you think is having the last laugh now. Could it be the Florida Marlins and their $21 million payroll, 23-14 record, good enough for best in the NL.

Geoff, good point about the pen. They have been doing good. And to think we have Corcoron and Dickey in reserve.

I was wondering if any of you statheads out there could come up with some numbers for us? thanks ahead of time.

Reed appears ready and would be a great add. Fierabend, maybe and wouldn't hurt to give him a chance in place of Washburn who is too inconsistent. Clement and Wlad will be hitting within the next four weeks. Sexson and Vidro need to be kept on the bench and not kill every rally with their middle of the lineup automatic outs. As for the umpiring, it's amazing that the 'best' do little better than some LL umps especially with their strike zones.

Well, it looks like Mac decided to take my advice over the weekend. Bat Lopez 5th, and good (better) things are bound to happen. He's an "RBI Machine", and is being wasted at the #2 spot. Maybe Mac touched on this, but I was out of town this weekend. Why was he playing both of his pinch runners the other day? Doesn't that defeat the purpose just a little bit?

"WHy are people complaining about Ichiro? He has been OK. Yes, he is nnot hitting his "normal" 330 but his is much better the sub-200 averages of half the other team."

It's simple, Ichiro hitting .292 isn't the same as Raul Ibanez or Adrian Beltre hitting .280-.290. There is a different level of production. Ichiro has to, let me repeat that, has to hit .330 or more to be a productive player. He's a one-dimensional singles hitter who doesn't know how to draw a walk, so he has to hit lots and lots of singles. He hasn't been doing that. Ichiro hitting .330 is almost as good as Raul hitting .280-.290, Beltre hitting .270-.280, or Sexson hitting .260. He has to hit .350 or more to be a real "difference maker" and earn about 3/4 of the money he makes. (Proprietary formula, sorry guys)

By my count, there are only 4 position players who are earning their money or better right now. Lopez (500,000), Ibanez (5.5m), Balentien (380,000), and Betancourt (1.25m). Beltre is very close, and I expect him to improve even more in the next week. Unfortunately, the "big ticket" players don't have the pride or self-respect to get out there and earn their money. Ichiro, Sexson, and Vidro should have the common decency to give a good portion of their salaries to charity. Ichiro could give some money to his favorite local Elementary School. Sexson could send some money to MADD. Vidro could compile a cookbook featuring his favorite dishes, and enclose $500 coupons in each book to pay for the food needed to make those dishes. Just a few suggestions.

Statistical qualification: the principle of "reversion to the mean" suggests that teams on a hot streak will lose a few games to revert to their long-term average (notice the Angels have lost 4 in a row). Likewise, teams that have lost 9 out of 10 will likely win the majority of their next 10+ games to revert to their long-term average.

I disagree with this statement. If we prepare to flip a coin 1000 times, I think we can expect heads and tails each coming up about 50% of the time, correct? However, say on the first 200 flips, it comes up tails 190 times, and heads only 10 times. Reversion to the mean does NOT mean that the numbers will even out and we'll see heads 180 times more than it does tails over the remaining 800 flips. Reversion to the mean simply means that, despite the lopsided results from the first 200 flips, you'll still see a 50-50 split for the remaining 800.

Likewise, if the Mariners were a 90-win team before the year (a .556 winning percentage), but started out the way they have, reversion to the mean would only mean they would play .556 ball the rest of the way, rather than win at more than a .556 rate in order to hit 90 wins.

If preseason predictions were normative, then the Rays would be much worse at this point, the Tigers much better, etc.

This is an entirely different point. Of course they are not normative. But you still have to evaluate the talent and the level of play of teams during the course of the season. After 25% of the season, we can make certain judgments about the Mariners, Angels, and A's. Couple those judgments with historical reference, and it at least gives an idea of what the Mariners are up against.

Sure, they could go bonzo crazy over the last 123 games and win the division. I just don't think this team stacks up to those that have done it in the past.

I heard a rumor that the greatest homerun hitter ever is a free agent. I've heard that he might be availale for a very low price.

I think we should take our chances with a Brad Wilkerson, Jose Vidro, or Miguel Cairo over him.

It's time to make a bold move and give Bonds a try. It can't get much worse.....at this point we have the second pick in next years draft.

Anyone know when the last time a team that had the second worst record in baseball came back and made it into the playoffs?

I don't usually agree with Adam and his stats predicting results, but in this case math does not lie. This ball club as constituted will not win the west. It has too much ground to make up over a long haul and they don't have the personnel--players and management to make it happen. I guess we can kid ourselves like we did last year thinking we had a shot in September, but...

I don't understand why REED hasn't been called up? As of this morning..1 error, 13k's, 47 hits
.364 Batting avg..1.028 ops.

Vidro??? Clement? come on he should be in left and Raull DH...I love raaaaul but Reed would have made that catch that he didn't yesterday...

make the move...another simple baby step!!

Why worry about winning the division? This team is the worst team in the AL. They need to get back to playing .500 ball before you start thinking division titles, victory parades down 1st avenue, and Bill Bavasi the toast of the town.

.500 ball i'd be ecstatic with right now, then go from there.

But first, consistently prove they are at least an average team...

NO team that bats Bloomquist and Cairo second in consecutive games is going to approach playing .600 ball for any length of time.

I'm for giving Reed a shot since we seem disinclined to look outside the system. Let's put Raul at first because really, Miguel Cairo? At first base?

Eastcoast.

I, too, am impressed with the Marlins and their ability to win with a low payroll. Sometimes, young guys are just hungrier than vets. However, I must take you to task about factuality. The beef was between Bavasi and Dave Sampson, (I believe he is the team president) not GM Larry Beinfest. Secondly, it was over Ichiro's contract, not Silva's. Thirdly, it was last season, not the offseason. So....1for 4 is not great, but a .250 average would make you one of the better producers in the M's lineup right now.

One more thing before putting this tired old horse to bed. Re: the M's needing to play .600 ball or thereabouts to win the division:

The Angels are still without Lackey, Escobar, Figgins, and Kendrick.

The M's.... well, they're at full strength. Unless you're truly delusional enough to believe that Mike Morse will push us over the top.

Thanks Shawnuel - you're correct. But the point is still the same. I was hasty, and I guess I just didn't want to waste any more time on this "team" than I already do

Can we get rid of Cairo already? Call up Reed, or trot a goat to the plate each at bat and we may get better production than Cairo has given us.

According to the Dayton Daily News the Mariners sent a scout this weekend to Cincinnati to take a look at Ken Griffey Jr.

If the Mariners are in last place this would just be a publicity stunt to sell tickets, but if the Mariners make a move now (Bonds, cough, cough) to move up the standings Griffey could be the final piece of the puzzle.

it seems like the M's offense has picked it up a bit, now that the weather is warmer. I also wonder how much affect a full stadium of warm blooded hot aired fans compares to a cold empty stadium full of echos. Maybe Steve Pool could help.

For those fans who claim the year is over, that is your opinion, I respect it. But being a fan since the very 1st game in 1977, and I will not give up on my team in Mid May. Call me stupid, but that is what I believe.

It can't hurt us that the Angels lost their leadoff man and sparkplug Figgins and got demoralized by the Rays. As far as the A's go, they are a wildcard, but I tend to believ that the A's are more mirage than concrete.

Final note...what's up with this lame schedule? 3 games in TEX, then hop on a plane back here for 3, then back o the road? Who came up with that crap?

Go Mariners!!

I keep going back to team leadership. This team needs it baaaad. Guillen was the closest to being a clubhouse leader. Putz can’t do the job as a closer as much as he tries and has the personality for the role. Unfortunately the FO won’t take chances on the ‘bad boys of baseball’ who tend to be the one’s that are vocal and take leadership. The M’s FO want the good citizenship award winners. Nothing wrong with that, but you can find guys out there like Bone who can push the players to do better and still be upstanding citizens and role models. Ibanez stated in the P.I. this morning that he hasn’t shared any of his mental approaches or disciplines with the team. Why?!? Ibanez and Ichiro should be, but aren’t and won’t be the team leaders. They don’t have the personality for it. Hargrove had some kind of magic to get this disjointed-good-on-paper-team to where they were last July. Since McLaren took over they’ve gone 30-45.

Also Reed’s numbers in Tacoma deserve him getting a second look. He’s batting .364 with 10 doubles, 1 triple, 6 HR’s 13 walks with 21 RBI’s in 129 appearances. I agree with those who have suggested putting Reed in LF, with Ibanez at 1st while Richie serves his suspension.

So far the Mariners low-point in the season is 10 games below .500. What are the chances of the Mariners making the postseason? Well, they would be only the 4th team in MLB history to achieve that feat if they could pull it off. Not good odds.

MOST GAMES BELOW .500 IN A SEASON TO REACH POSTSEASON
1. Houston Astros, 2005, 15 games below .500
2. Oakland A's, 2001, 10 games below .500
3. Florida Marlins, 2003, 10 games below .500

Looking at Tampa's turnaround, they are actually striking out fewer (6.08K/9) this year than last and their K/BB is also down (1.77 compared to 2.1).

But one huge difference is that they are turning batted balls into outs at a much higher rate (last year .662 and this year .720). Improving the defense seems to have helped make a big difference. That differential works out to be 57 hits over 39 games, a big reason they've gone from giving up 5.8 runs a game to 4.2.

And yet we keep running Raul out to leftfield. Wouldn't it make so much more sense to put Raul on first and Reed in left than Cairo out first. Reed will outhit Cairo and the difference between Reed & Raul in left has to be much bigger than the difference between Cairo and Raul at first.

Dickey is not a feasible callup, he's 1-4 at AAA for gawds sake.

From today's Baseball Prospectus:

"A 20-year-old right-hander who came to the Orioles from Seattle in the Erik Bedard deal, Chris Tillman is dominating Eastern League hitters. A second-round pick in the 2006 draft, the 6’ 5” Tillman is 3-0, 2.87 in 7 starts for the Double-A Bowie Baysox, holding opposing hitters to a .173 average."

Effing fire Bill Bavasi NOW. Everyday he stays on the payroll sends a signal that incompetence is the organizational norm.

Chris Antonetti in '08

Regardless how the Ms play, (or don't play) they are not going to the post season. At least with this team the way it is. There is no strong nucleus. There are no core players to build around. That is Bavasi's fault for picking up all of the major league dregs. He just finds player to fill spots.

First things first, fire Bavasi and hire a GM that actually has a goal for this team. I think Bavasi is attempting to show that money builds contenders. Steinbrenner has proven that theory doesn't work. The difference between the two is that Steinbrenner smarter.

They need a GM along the lines of Billy Beane and a head coach like Eric Wedge.

This team will go no where with its current leadership. As long as we keep Bavasi and McLaren, they will wallow in less that mediocrity. All of the high-priced free agents need to go. Yes, That includes Ichiro, Bedard, Sexson and Beltre. They need to utilize the players in Tacoma. They can't play any worse than this current team is playing now.

Great post!

"Reversion to the mean simply means that, despite the lopsided results from the first 200 flips, you'll still see a 50-50 split for the remaining 800."

I have no desire to get into reciprocating arguments with anyone, so I will acknowledge that Adam is partially correct: my examples were poorly articulated (trying to avoid the clumsy technical jargon).

The principle of "reversion" or "regression to the mean" [RTM] is not the same as "What goes up must come down," as Adam rightly implies. RTM does mean, however, that as a statistical sample approaches infinity, any random variation will be absorbed into the larger sample and effectively disappear [in lay terms]. That is, Adam may be right that any observed random variation in a sampling of 200 coin tosses will not be erased in 1000 tosses, but RTM holds that such a variation will become nearly insignificant after several billion tosses (provided the probability is truly 50/50).

Likewise, if a baseball team ends up winning 55% of its games over the course of the season [implying a 162-game record of 89-73], one could look back at a 15-24 start and argue that the subsequent out-performance (74-49, .601) simply reflected a regression to the mean.

My point about the Rays and Tigers (and Marlins, etc), is that preseason predictions are just that: predictions. To judge a team according to those predictions and argue that the Ms cannot play .600 ball or that the Angels won't play .550 ball is to assume that one knows the outcome of the season. Too many variables remain to predict accurately. Statistically speaking, one can only evaluate a random sample (such as the first 39 games) once the entire data set has been collected (i.e., the end of the season).

I raise this issue again, because I see far too many fans being persuaded by faulty logic that presumes the current team is incapable of winning 90 games based on recent past performance. As they say in investing, "past performance does not guarantee future results." To argue that the Ms cannot compete because "the Mariners' ERA+ and OPS+ were both sitting at 89" seems to imply that the absolutely horrible performance of the first 39 games either continues or improves only minimally. I, for one, don't think the Ms will continue to hit this poorly for the entire season.

That said, players can slump for an entire season, and averages will eventually fall off with age--but that differs for each person, and we will not know the outcome until the end of the season.

So what is a fair sample size for a team? Depends on the team. For a streaky team like the Ms, there may be no fair sample size. For the 2007 Yankees, even half a season was not sufficient. The Yankees were 37-41 on July 1 and then went 57-27 (.679). Are the Ms as good as the 2007 Yankees? I doubt it, but it's too early to say. The 2007 Ms did play .624 for 3 months, and the pitching is better this year. The bats are horrible so far, but I think they will improve dramatically. Will they be streaky and unpredictable? Yes! And that's precisely the point.

NB: Regarding the "4th team in MLB history" post: I find it interesting that all 3 of those teams accomplished the feat since 2001. That means that 3 out of the 56 teams that made the playoffs in the last 7 years did so after being more than 10 games under .500. Those are significantly better odds than 3 out of hundreds. To avoid inconsistency with my arguments above, that may be a random sample aberration; however, I suspect doubling the number of playoff teams has something to do with this.

joe posted @ 9:22 AM

"For those fans who claim the year is over, that is your opinion, I respect it. But being a fan since the very 1st game in 1977, and I will not give up on my team in Mid May. Call me stupid, but that is what I believe."

RIGHT ON BROTHER AMEN AND CAN I GET A WITNESS!!!

GO MARINERS!!!!!!

The Mariners are now and have been a very consistent team of UNDERperformers.....Consistently.....
The only way to improve this team, is to light some fires' under there overpaid rear ends....
That's what Lou did.....brought fire and fierce determination to the team.....
That's what is missing....there is no incentive for this team to play better.....
This comes from the Top down...the whole organization is built to have a somewhat competitive team, to fill the stadium seats, not to build a winner....
Trades?? Bringing up AAA players????
Nothing will change until the Top of the pile decides they MUST win.....
Bavasi??? Maclaren??? ......simply NOT winners....just players, hoping to get lucky....

Mr. X, Sexson has been out do to serving his 5 game suspension, and Vidro has been having backspasms. So that has caused some shuffling of the line ups the past few games.

Comment on Cairo - he got credit for his (only) hits of the seadon over the weekend - one was a bad-bounce single, the other a spinning blooper that bounced into the stands for a 2 RBI double. Tradional wisdom says that the bloopers balance out the line drives that some defensive gem robs him. The trouble with that idea is that no one has had to make any defensive gems to get him out. He hasn't hit the ball hard enough all year.
Here's an idea - trade him for Griffey - that's all Griffey is worth - practically nothing.
Comment on Raul - he mmissed making plays on two balls hit to LF over the weekend. I like Raul, he has a good first step, but his second and later ones are sorely lacking. Perfect for 1st base, where he has time to take ony one step on a hard hit grounder. Call up Reed to play LF, and trade Vidro along with Cairo to Cincinnati. But, tell the Reds they can keep Griffey to go with the 'trade' to make it even.

ACH - As I'm sure you acknowledge, 162 games is small enough of a sample (compared to numbers approaching infinity) to make true RTM less probable.

Likewise, if a baseball team ends up winning 55% of its games over the course of the season [implying a 162-game record of 89-73], one could look back at a 15-24 start and argue that the subsequent out-performance (74-49, .601) simply reflected a regression to the mean.

I would't argue that. I'd argue that the final 123 games is just as unlikely as the first 39 in that scenario.

To judge a team according to those predictions and argue that the Ms cannot play .600 ball or that the Angels won't play .550 ball is to assume that one knows the outcome of the season. Too many variables remain to predict accurately.

You can't make strongly accurate predictions, sure. But 1/4 of the season is completed - I think we can with some certainty (not absolute) evaluate a team and at least try to predict a final record. I'll readily concede that the Angels could flop and the Mariners could surge.

I raise this issue again, because I see far too many fans being persuaded by faulty logic that presumes the current team is incapable of winning 90 games based on recent past performance. As they say in investing, "past performance does not guarantee future results." To argue that the Ms cannot compete because "the Mariners' ERA+ and OPS+ were both sitting at 89" seems to imply that the absolutely horrible performance of the first 39 games either continues or improves only minimally. I, for one, don't think the Ms will continue to hit this poorly for the entire season.

So what logic tells you the Mariners CAN win 90 games? Just because we can't perfectly predict future results by past results doesn't mean we should argue that they can. Sure, anything is possible, but why bother engaging in that type of analysis. Personally, I think looking at 25% of the season in making judgments about the team and its abilities (not to mention all of the 2007 season) is a fairly reliable means to predict future performance.

Do I think the Mariners will keep up a 89 OPS+ and ERA+? Probably not. I think the pitching improves as Putz gets healthy and Felix gets better. I don't think the hitting improves much.

So you can look at the performance to this point, take an objective look at the team and each player, and adjust your prediction. But even given the best-case scenario, I don't see this team playing at a level that would be required to catch and overtake two very good teams.

And just because baseball can be unpredictable doesn't mean we can't try to predict anything. I'll guarantee you that the smart FOs in baseball engage in predictions all the time. See Beane, Billy.

What a concept let your hitter swing the bat on 3 and 0 First time i've seen it this yearm Is this an order from bill or just a stupid manager????

Adam, I agree with 99% of your post. I am simply trying to point out the assumptions that lie behind the "season is over" pessimism in some posts here.

I'm not convinced this team will win 90 games, but I think it's better than 81, and that difference is only one long winning streak. And this team is capable of some amazing streaks (in both directions)--I honestly cannot even begin to predict what such a streaky team will do.

Ultimately, I won't be depressed if the Ms don't make the playoffs this year--as long as they compete, make some kind of run at it, and keep Felix and Bedard happy for next year.

Teakman--are your referring to the Ibanez homer on a 3-0 pitch?

teakman, they brought that up on the postgame show. The gist of it was that certain hitters like Raul pretty much have the green light. Basically, Raul's got good enough instincts....after all, he hit it out, didn't he?

Choska, as far as Tillman is concerned, I'm not going to feel like we got gipped there as long as those numbers are only at AA. Sherrill saved a bunch of games early, but he's not an all-star (yet), and Adam Jones makes a few highlights here and there, but he's not hitting 30 bombs (yet.) You have to give value to get value. You say Bedard isn't value? Well, I think the best argument is that his value is being wasted with such a paltry offense. I doubt we would fuss too much about Tillman's AA ball stats if Bedard had won 5-8 games for us so far. In order for that to happen, he'd have to pitching a shutout virtually every time on the mound.

yes I was . I am sick of seeing batter three and 0 with the wood on the shoulder looking at the best pitch of the night go sailing by for a strike . Does Mclaren think all pichers are as inept as the mariners and can't throw a strike??????

Choska, your Chris Tillman stats bring up an interesting rant. Honestly, I think Jeff Clement will be as good as advertised. Wladimir Balentien will be a nice piece. And there are other nice pieces down there. However, while a lot of teams have players in minor leagues that come up and contribute immediately, it is frustrating that M's prospects (and other new players by FA or trade) have to "adjust" if they're going to contribute at all. Sure, Reed's got good numbers at AAA, and he was once a pretty high rated prospect when we got him. However, in all reality, is it too far off to argue based on past performance that his .365, 17 EB hits, and 21 RBI would translate into .230, half the EB hits, and maybe 3/4 the RBI in SEA. I mean, think of how Clement is adjusting from even better numbers at AAA. Nice fantasy, but I think Reed, Griffey, Bonds, and some of the other names are just mirages we're grabbing onto. I'm no doomsday, but I don't see any one-man miracle cures right now until the rest of the team starts hitting.

I hate to be optimistic after one victory, but I am. Everyone appeared to be on the same page yesterday. The bullpen was impressive.

sorry teakman, I mistook the tone of your post....I missed the sarcasm, and I thought you were calling him out on it.

Went to the game yesterday expecting to see Floyd pitch a no-hitter. Instead I saw the M's dust off the old playbook that was issued during spring training. Steady pitching, bunching hits (!) and solid bullpen. That wasn't so hard, was it?

I know it's not supposed to happen. I know it's statistically improbable. I know they should just concede the season and go home. I guess for some of you there's really no point in watching any more games, and that's too bad. Heck, everybody says Hillary should quit too, since she's certainly not going to win.

But I've always admired the guy who keeps going against all odds. The '95 M's were thirteen games back, and they didn't give up, but there were many, many folks who thought that they should. Call me crazy, but I refuse to give up on this team!

something I have noticed, but haven't had the time to look at, do the M's batters seem, over the years, to play much better when it gets warmer? I wonder how they will hit in the warmer temps in Texas. Has anyone else wondered or noticed this?

Sunny M- I think that's a given, and I don't think I need stats to back that up. That's why there's probably still some hyper-optimism in the M's managerial staff.

Although I'm curious about the Padres - going with the warmer weather logic - what's their excuse?

X - I know you've been calling for Lopez in the 5 spot because he hits better with men on (or w/men in RISP, or w/men in RISP after the 7th inning against RHPs, or whatever).

Funny thing. Yesterday, hitting in the 5 hole, with the bases empty, Lopez was 3-3 with a double. With men on, he was 0-1. On Saturday, his only hit was with the bases empty. Yes, he had a sac fly, but it sure would be nice if he could drive in a run without making an out.

Yes, yes, I know it was only two games and we can't draw any conclusions from it. But he didn't exactly look like an "RBI machine."

The only reason why Lopez is hitting 5 is because Sexson is out of the lineup, but personally, I have no problem if Lopez is dropped to the 6 or 7 spot. All he does in the 2 hole is hit the ball to the right side and hit the ball in the air. I think he's a better hitter when he's allowed to let loose a little bit.

Nat - their home park is the Grand Canyon, and they aren't a very good lineup.

"Went to the game yesterday expecting to see Floyd pitch a no-hitter. Instead I saw the M's dust off the old playbook that was issued during spring training. Steady pitching, bunching hits (!) and solid bullpen. That wasn't so hard, was it?"

Well, to be fair, Floyd pretty much sucks. His early season right now is the mother of all flukes.

Ah, and X is at it again.

"It's simple, Ichiro hitting .292 isn't the same as Raul Ibanez or Adrian Beltre hitting .280-.290. There is a different level of production. Ichiro has to, let me repeat that, has to hit .330 or more to be a productive player. He's a one-dimensional singles hitter who doesn't know how to draw a walk, so he has to hit lots and lots of singles."

Yet, he has a higher career SLG than Mr. RBI Machine himself Jose Lopez. And his SLG for the year is is only ten points lower than the RBI Machine...tm. He also has hit better with runners in scoring position over the last three years than Jose Lopez has. Funny isn't it?

Of course none of this matter, considering batting AVG is a completely worthless statistic. Over his career Ichiro has gotten on base more than anyone you listed.

And this idea that somehow Ichiro can't take a walk is a joke. Raul Ibanez walked 53 times last year. Ichiro walked 49 times. Last year he was fourth on the team in BB. He had the second highest OPS on the team last year, while playing fantastic defense at a premium position. Anyhone who thinks he isn't valuable doens't have the slightest clue what they are talking about.

X's problem is that he is fixated on meaningles statistics like batting AVG, and AVG with runners in scoring posotion, that he refused to believe anything that conflicts with his preconceived view.

Adam: yes it's true that Petco is, as you say, the Grand Canyon, and besides the fact they're not a good team, what about warmer weather having an impact on their hitting?

Maybe it's relative, in the sense that what feels warm to Seattle Mariners, and by extension - to some degree - impacts M's bats in May, June, and beyond, isn't going to be the same for San Diego and the Padres, having fairly even temperatures year around there w/o much variability.

San Diego average temperatures for:
APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT
69 69 72 76 78 77

So if their bats are crappy in April chances are (w/o anything else factored in) would you say their bats are not going to be any different in July or August? Just curious...probably a question oregongal would like.