Yeah, Escobar's been a hidden fave of mine for awhile, too. Terrible news for him and his fans, but definitely good news for M's fans (although, heh, for some strange reason the M's seem to pwn Kelvim...)

This could be a big blow to the Angels, no question. Replacing Escobar with Ervin Santana is not optimal.

That said, this isn't exactly a new thing for the Angels. They were clearly the best team in the division last year, even with all the injury problems they had.

The race just got a little bit tighter, but I wouldn't get too excited.

Geoff,

Do you think anyone will ever leak what the holdup on the O's side of this trade has been? Has this really just been Angelos pitching a fit because news of a trade everyone knew about got out? Why would anyone still want to do business with Baltimore again.

Geoff - If Escobar missed the entire season the Angels staff would still be stronger than the M's. We are playing for 2nd in 2008.

Chris P - All this blame on the O's side. Don't you think a little of this has to do with Bavasi's ineptness?

AK,

Bavasi's ineptness came when he added a 5th player when the deal stalled. The fact of the matter is Angelos runs his team ego first, but hey, he bought it so why not. In the end as long as Bedard stays healthy this will probably be a trade that works out well for both teams.

Geoff - If Escobar missed the entire season the Angels staff would still be stronger than the M's. We are playing for 2nd in 2008.

Chris P - All this blame on the O's side. Don't you think a little of this has to do with Bavasi's ineptness?

I know it doesn't do any good to wish you could change the past, but imagine a rotation including Bedard, Felix and Lincecum...

Wood.

"He does have to hit more doubles, as I mentioned yesterday. A lot more."

Well, Geoff, I just don't know what to say any more about this. You can't will somebody to do something above their skillset and talent level, at least you shouldn't plan a roster hoping that. He's not a doubles hitter. He's a singles hitter, and one who has serious issues in nearly every other department for a person who brings nothing defensively. Saying that Vidro needs to hit more doubles and expecting him to be able to do it, is like me saying I need to grow about a foot to enter the NBA and expecting a growth spurt.

"Looking at the larger sample size of a half-season, he appears to have stopped grounding into DPs."

If you were a GM, Geoff, you'd be a declining veteran's dream. How about the larger sample size of the entire season which he will have to play? You are inconsistent to claim a 2-month hitting improvement (largely helped by walk totals) means Vidro figured it out on the one hand and then writing off his high -double play month during nearly the same period on the other. Which is it? Can a month or two mean something or can't it? I argue the season speaks for itself.

Thanks for the clarification re: Rios, Geoff.


I'd prefer the M's to have a DH with more power than Vidro, but I do like that he's a switch-hitter and is a patient enough hitter that he can work the count.


I would be happy to see a real breakout season from Yuni. He definitely improved at the plate the second half of last season.

Queen Of Sheba

Not sure how Bedard intended to get to Seattle, but if it is by air via Chicago, about a thousand flights got snowed out from Chicago yesterday.

Besides, doesn't it take time, maybe a day, to get the results of an exam back after it's done? Just because he takes an exam doesn't mean the deal is done.

Then, again, maybe he's just in no hurry to get here.

I just want Lopez to return to form. He's a great player and gets put down a bit too much. He's a really good fielder and hitter - he just seems to have gotten distracted with the whole thing with his brother.

If he can hit the way he is capable of, our team is pretty good. Also our defense would be fairly solid up the middle.

Are the mariners looking into picking someone like Kenny Lofton up to help in the OF? Or would they not really announce those rumblings until the Bedard trade was official?

Having Vidro at DH isn't good enough for a pennant. With all the "Win Now" advocates here I am astonished why Geoff wants to settle for Vidro at DH and Wilkerson in right, along with Sexson at first. It makes no sense to me.

Geoff - Doesn't this argument about Vidro's reliability as a singles hitter, mean he's as valuable or more valuable as a PH? Which, again, vacates DH for Raul, which vacates LF for Balentien/Morse/anyone else.

And I'm not thrilled by the Escobar thing, because a true playoff team has to play better than the margin of error. If the Angels are seriously hampered by this, or the Ms are seriously boosted, then both teams are more marginal playoff contenders than previously thought. One play, one game, one person can't be the end-all be-all of a true championship team.

2007 DH Stats - With Runner's on

PLAYER BA OBP SLG OPS
David Ortiz 0.367 0.479 0.664 1.143
Jim Thome 0.322 0.488 0.65 1.137
Jack Cust 0.286 0.433 0.593 1.027
Travis Hafner 0.271 0.395 0.506 0.9
Frank Thomas 0.292 0.375 0.525 0.9
Gary Sheffield 0.285 0.404 0.477 0.881
Sammy Sosa 0.276 0.328 0.509 0.837
Jason Giambi 0.284 0.429 0.397 0.825
Mike Sweeney 0.29 0.351 0.471 0.822
Turbo 0.317 0.381 0.421 0.802

ughhh

Geoff, as you have pointed out, Vidro was not brought here for power. I think the majority of M's fans will agree with that statement.

However, the problem I have with Vidro is two-fold. #1 is bringing him here at all. Why trade for a guy with little power who plays poor defense, who is signed for 2+ yrs at 6mill per. It was just poor planning/lack of vision on the part of the M's FO.

Secondly, as an extension of #1, the M's O lacks some serious power. With C, 3B, SS, CF, LF (Ibanez), and ?2B seemingly set, and Sexson destined to be our 1B, that leaves only DH and RF as potential power upgrades. I also believe that DH is probably the easiet position at which to find a power upgrade. Although I agree that Vidro is in many ways an ideal #2 hitter, I think many M's fans see Vidro as some sort of obstruction to a much needed power hitting DH.

2007 Highest OPS with Runners On

Alex Rodriguez 0.329 0.443 0.719 1.162
David Ortiz 0.367 0.479 0.664 1.143
Jim Thome 0.322 0.488 0.65 1.137
Ryan Howard 0.295 0.447 0.676 1.123
Miguel Cabrera 0.376 0.469 0.639 1.108
Magglio Ordonez 0.391 0.466 0.625 1.091
Mark Teixeira 0.343 0.469 0.609 1.079
Barry Bonds 0.278 0.515 0.556 1.072
Vlad Guerrero 0.364 0.461 0.608 1.069
James Loney 0.38 0.437 0.613 1.051

Talk about leaping off the page....one of those guys is available....

This one is simple. A DH's role is for one purpose only. Driving in runs. It doesn't matter if you hit a single, double or home run to do it, but you've got to get runners home.

This issue is even more magnified this year since we are trying to replace Guillen's 100 RBI bat.

59 RBI's from your position that does nothing but hit? Please.

all i want to know is how much better is bedard going to make Felix

i think we will look a lot like the padres

Big Ball Park

great pitching staff

great closer

but the mariners do have a better line up then padres

Rick Griffen - I know Bavasi said it was not big deal but PLEASE PLEASE make sure the elbow gets looked at.

I really don't wish bad things for Bedard but I sure hope that the MRI looks really bad.

Dover - If only the M's were in the NL West!

I was a big fan of the Bedard trade when it was first leaked 10 DAYS AGO; but with each day that passes I grow increasingly tired of Baltimore’s (read: Angelos’) gerrymandering and boorish behavior. If I’m Bavasi, I kill this deal ASAP, take my chances w/ Morrow in the 5th spot and look to Felix to become the ace we’re all waiting for him to be. Then look to make a deal at the trade deadline if the M’s are still in contention.

But assuming that this deal does actually go through one of these days/weeks/months I’d like to see the M’s go after a player like Tony Clark that can not only provide some power of the bench, but also be a clubhouse leader and serve as insurance in case the current ineptitude/injuries continue at 1B/LF/RF.

The Besmircher regrets to inform Geoff that his ride has come down with a serious case of the cruds and will not be able to drive him to Seattle for the big Blog-In tonight.

The Besmircher requests that his two seats be allotted to Frankie and Cubbie, instead.

The Besmircher hopes everyone has fun. (Even Adam, who is having a hard time getting excited about a tighter race with the Angels).

The Besmircher doesn't think that Érik Bédard will be at the party tonight.

The Besmircher is waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting........................

bedard-13-5 3.16 221 ks in 182in on a horrible team in the best offensive division in the league also on a team whos defense isnt no where near as good as the ms.dont be suprised if the cy young winner plays for the mariners.down with the angels..

Hmmmm....dinner planning frustrations aside, I assume you are referring to the gentleman from French speaking Canada?

As usual, Churchill hasn't a clue. He stated in his blog yesterday that Bedard was in Seattle at that exact moment. Insider...yeah right.

Geoff -
Another excellent and well thought out analysis. I am enjoying reading your articles and will continue to. There are not a lot of intelligent baseball fans or sports writers in this area, as I am sure you have noticed by now.

Jesse

oh and its good to see garland with angels.does everybody remember what he did against the ms last year. 2.2 10runs 5 earned.and people say the angels have a better rotation.
bedard or lackey bedard bedard at safeco in a weaker
hitting division and seattles defense it could equal a cy young
felix or escobar felix felix a year older a year wiser and escobar is hurt
washburn or weaver weaver is better by a little he is a weaver and is very skinny the can ware him down this could be the year his weaver name catches up to him
silva or garland silva silva at safeco with a good defense could have 3 something era
bautista or santana bautista is a solid vet and santana is horrible

I take it this means that AJ and Sherril passed their physicals otherwise Bedard wouldn't be on his way here.
Can you imagine if the M's found something now at this point. Now that would screw the O's who deserve to be hosed. That being said, I want a healthy Bedard on our team.

"I'm starting to sound like Vidro's agent or something"
.
uhh no you are sounding like someone with a huge MANCRUSH!
.
"I'll be in Peoria already by the 14th"
.
uhhhh, will VIDRO be waiting for you there?

I think this deal is a mistake. We draft and trade for need to often and get burned. Bavasi is taking a major gamble here. We are giving up way too much. I am getting more an more confident that the rest of the league thinks of as a bit naive. We run 'fire-sales' too often.

1:09 PM, Feb 07, 2008
"I think this deal is a mistake. We draft and trade for need to often and get burned..."

I completely disagree. This is huge. To get a cy young talented pitcher is unreal. See 2001, if you do not have lights out starting pitching you lose in the playoffs. Period.

In 2001 our offense was unbelievably better. This team is nowhere near as good even with a stud pitcher and minus a offensive weapon. Ummm, Vidro or Edgar at DH anyone? Horrible comparison.

Yes, with Bedard we are going to win over 100 games. Silly Rabbit, Trix are for Bavasi!!

bhamhusky, see the 2002 D'Backs for evidence that "lights out" starting pitching isn't everything. 2007 Rockies, lights out pitching?

Geoff, it's a pretty sad state of affairs when our DH is our No. 2 hitter. If your DH isn't your 3 or 4, I would say you have some serious lineup problems.

So it looks like the Angels could be in search for a starting pitcher, with Bedard coming to the M's, I believe we have one astounding pitcher in one H. Ramirez that we could package for a quality return.

We could all hope.....

Great article on our new staff Ace.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/02/05/bedard0211/index.html

I'm glad to hear that he's finally in Seattle for his physical. In my opinion, we gave up for a CY Young caliber pitcher. It sucks to lose four potential studs and a lights out reliever but picking up Bedard will make us better today and in the future. Management will be seen as movers willing to spend money (and prospects) to acquire top tier players. The trade of Bedard is a long time coming but definitely a step in the right direction.

As I mentioned in the past, it would have been nice to get C.Patterson (for cheap) to man RF. He steals bases, hits for a decent average and is a CF by trait, allowing for him to cover RF with ease. That being said, Wilkerson is a cheap enough replacement until Balentien is ready to take over.

I think this will be a big year for Sexson, being a FA after the season. He won't hit for average but I think we can expect to see 30+ HR's to go along w/ 100+ RBI's. He's been working hard in the off-season knowing that if he doesn't produce this year, he'll be missing out on his chance to cash in on his last, long term contract. He know's that a 30+/100+ season will get him $12M-$15M for the next 3/4 years for whoever is in need for a power hitter in the middle of their line-up.

Looking forward to a great 2008. Go M's!

Not that I wish Bedard ill, but there is only one thing that can save Bavasi from himself at this point. . . Though knowing him, even if Bedard has a career-threatening injury that shows up in the physical, Bavasi will still consummate the deal.

Ichiroll-Phillipe Aumont was held in the same class as Felix Hernandez according to M's International Operations Director Bob Engle. Yet,Churchill believes Tillman and Butler should be ranked higher than Aumont. Scouting talent obviously is a major weakness for Prospect Insider along with bad information.

Again, seems fairly risky. He's had more than his share of DL stints, appearing almost every year since 2003, ended last season on the 60 day DL. I believe he had his DL status 'renewed'. I hope I am wrong on this, but the argument assumes he's 'lights out, number one starter, ace'... My concerns are his durability and what good 15 wins will be if he is done again this September. Hence the two day physical. I feel like we are throwing the kitchen sink at him and trading for an immediate need at a great cost. A late season 60 day DL placement means we are likely SOL and going downstairs for talent to finish out a season.

I wonder if French-speaking Bedard can help the development of French-speaking Aumont. It can't hurt.

After losing out on the Bedard sweepstakes, it looks like the Reds are now talking to the A's about Blanton. I'm so glad the Mariners aren't in full rebuilding mode like Oakland. I think the Seattle-LA pennant race is going to be a good one.

There seems to be a lot of folks that probably have pink ponies next to their computer.

As an Orioles fan I would like to throw in Angelos for free with the deal. Do whatever you want to with him, I know what O's fans want to do with him.

I think this is a good deal for both teams and I am as frustrated as Mariners fans at the constant delays for no apparent reason.

Lets hope this deal gets done and gets both Teams what they expect out of it.

I'm not really arguing with you on Vidro's skills, or lack thereof, but to say that the 2-hole is one of the hardest places to hit is clearly incorrect. With the 3-4-5 hitters coming up, pitchers are reluctant to walk the #2 hitter. Thus, he sees strikes, strikes, and more strikes (usually fastballs). This, of course, makes the #2 hitter's job much easier, as he can often sit on fastballs in the zone. What you really have to do in the 2-hole is get on base, same as the leadoff spot. Vidro did this tolerably last year, with a .381 OBP. This was driven by a perhaps unsustainably high rate of singles (140 is a lot of singles in any year) but Mariners fans should be happy if Vidro has the exact same year.

Even though Vidro doesn’t fit the mold of the archetypal DH (big, slow, and brawny), he still posts the second highest batting average on the squad and is one of only 2 hitters to bat .300 (excluding those with few AB’s). Are we really in a position to complain about that? The negativity on this blog is staggering.

The 2 hole is difficult because of the diversity that comes along with it. You have to be able to hit foul pole to foul pole. On the ground, in the air, to the right side of the infield, or the left side. Take pitches, hit with 2 strikes. Bunt, sac-flies and even step into one. It is the unappreciated position that requires you to have skill. You can say the 7-9 positions are unappreciated too but they would be hitting in the 2 spot if they were good enough. Yes it is difficult to hit 35 bombs, 100 RBIs and .315 avg. But the 2 spot is what sets all of that up. I agree with Geoff on this one.

Vidro's stats with runner's in scoring position.

BA OBP SLG OPS
287 .367 .353 .720

I knew he was bad, I didn't know he was this bad. How can anyone support Vidro?

How many times did we see Ichrio get on, steal second, and then get stranded.

A pony's still a horse, and the way we run down pitchers, I mean, I'll take a pink pony it might just 'be-hoof' the franchise to begin looking into farm animals... They are sure easy to 'MOO!'ve at the end of the day...

Both teams are moving cautiously because of a concern that the various injuries are more/less serious than reported. The Orioles just might be holding their cards a little closer to their chest... They know we are desperate for pitching and the sort of immediate impact a potential starting pitcher 'could' make and might just run the table with one of our crown-jewel prospects.

I realize that the discussion has turned to DH and Vidro so I will say this first. Geoff made an important point that I think gets overlooked too often, as it did much of last year. No, Vidro doesn't have proto-typical DH numbers, BUT he is the only #2 hitter on the M's roster and probably the best #2 hitter they have had in years. I really don't think that the offense is going to be the problem this year. It wasn't last year. The M's had all nine starters drive in 50+ RBI's That sounds like a very balanced offense where rally's are hard to kill. Granted, when they were cold they were cold. Can't have as many shut-out in games as last year.

I came upon comment on another article where the person was wondering how one could logically expect the M's to win 90+ games this year. He was basing this off the M's over achiving record wise when looking at run differential. I'm sure that this has been beat to death this winter, but I haven't put in my two cents worth yet. So, here it goes: The run differential statistic at which you are looking, that projects that the M's should have been a .500 or below team last year puts them at -17 runs over the course of the season. But, suprisingly they won 88. If you look at the M's run differential from the beginning of the season until Weaver made his sixth start (May 10th) The run differential is -16 total and the run differential in just those 6 games in the innings that Weaver was pitching was -32. That means the M's were +16 in all of the innings that Weaver didn't pitch. Now, replace those innings with say, a Carlos Silva on a bad streak would he give you a run differential of -32? Possible I suppose, but probably not. Say he's only half as bad as Weaver was and had a -16 differential. The M's would have been +32. How about three quarters as bad at -24. The M's would still be at +8, +7 for the rest of the season.

This isn't even looking at the Jeckle and Hyde persona of HoRam, Replace those away losses where he looked closer to Weaver with a pitcher of Bedard's caliber and that run differential is going to be even higher at the end of the season.

Add onto this the reduced number of innings the bullpen pitches at the beginning of the season and the numbers they put up early could (I know it's only a could) carry through the entire year, instead of dropping off the last 5 weeks.

With the improved pitching the offense could take a dip, and it's probably only going to be a negligable dip, and the run differential is still going to be vastly improved.

Yes, this is all speculation and until the games are played that's all it will ever be, but I guess my point is every one is saying that based on last years run differential the M's should have only been a .500 team. Well, take out those horrible, god awful 6 starts by Weaver and replace them with serviceable pitching and the M's wound up right where they were last year. I think that the pitching we are getting is more than serviceable and in addition will help carry the bullpen through an entire season. This is how the M's could win 90+ games.

CHEMDORK - What you are proposing is called "cherry picking" in the stat world. If you are take the worst pitcher out of lineup for hte M's you would have to do the same thing for other teams. You would end up very close to where you started. We need to understand that the M's woes are not the result of one or two starting pitchers...its with a lineup of black holes. Wishing our declining players are going to find the fountain of youth is not going to make it happen.

You can call it cherry picking if you want, all I'm saying is those first 6 starts by Weaver last year where the worst 6 start by a starter at the start of the season in the history of MLB. All I'm saying is that replace the run differential in those games with average or below average starts and the projected wins for the M's are a lot closer to what they actually won.

"Did you know that Vidro hit .353 with a .900 OPS in the 116 times he came up to bat last season with a runner on first base only?"

How many other 116-PA samples could you pull out of his 2007 season that would show entirely different lines?

What makes you think this is a repeatable skill?

test comment

Nick- What makes you think its not?

GG

You mean other than the data doesn't support it? The question is why did Geoff pick 116 AB's why not 100 or 150? There was a reason...to make Vidro's number look as good as possible.

In 2006, over 100 AB with a runner on 1B only, he hit .270/.336/.380. (espn.com)

Did he forget he had this skill in 2006? Or suddenly develop or re-develop it in 2007?

There is a huge litany of material dealing with why it's not useful to attribute meaning to small splits and sample sizes of a player's stats. I won't try to regurgitate it here. I don't expect to win anybody over with my thoroughly-researched arguments here - just make the point that some people recognize that relatively arbitrary splits like this mean nothing.

Oh, one more thing: Vidro had an OPS of 664 last season in 44 AB with a runner on 2nd only. Does he only apply this so-called-repeatable skill with a runner on first?

"Thorougly" there is sarcasm. In case anybody was curious.

My point is that I, too, can pick out splits that make Vidro look as terrible a Geoff tries to make him look good.

Was over at the Baltimore Sun's website. They started reporting a little while ago about Bedard arriving here for his physical (and other Oriole news). Thought I'd copy of few of the gems on their message board here. They're fans have a pretty good sense of humor (they'd have to with Angelos running things) and an interesting take on the trade:

Way to go Sun paper. The Seattle papers reported this a mere 9 hours before you. You're getting faster!!!!!

This will probably be one of those lightning quick 4 days physicals.

Aren't they moving a tad bit fast on this one? I hear Bedard is taking the stagecoach out to Seattle.

No. Hot air balloon.

On the announcement that the Orioles have partnerned with Felipe Alou to have a Dominican presence for scouting:
Gee, the O's have really gotten into bed with the Alou Family! Hurray! They're great people and I would expect good players to come from the Dominican Republic. So what if we're the last team in history to go there.


Hey, guys, next try sending someone to Japan and China. There's a rumor that they have some good players over there.

Can't wait to see Bedard in a M's uniform pitching against Jonesy in a O's uniform. Bedard will strike Jonesy out!

What a stupid trade by Angelos! The O's blow and always will blow - this deal proves it! Giving up probably the BEST left handed pitcher in baseball for a couple of hopes an prayers - the O's are the laughingstock of MLB and this move proves Angelos only cares about one thing - YOUR MONEY!

Bedard trade finalized or the Skins name a new coach? Which happens first? Before or after Easter? This year or next?

Nick

Here's the reason for the diffence in OPS with a guy on 2nd.

The outfield is playing in to prevent the run from scoring,and his bloop singles can't drop.

With no on base they play him normal depth because having his fat ass clog up the bases is a good thing..for the other team.

AK - Actually on second thought it's not cherry picking. In the stat world, as in Statistical Mathmatics its called removing an outlier, outliers shift results away from the mean. If the worst start in the history of baseball by a starting pitcher isn't an outlier I don't know what is.

Nick - does your research take into effect the gap between the 1st and 2nd baseman when there is a runner on first? (1B holding the runner on, especially if it's Ichiro) I would say that being able to hit to that gap is a repeatable skill, for a professional hitter. i.e. Ichiro and Vidro. That may be the difference between runner on first and runner on second.

AK: AAAAhahahahhahahah!

Geoff said:
"Tell me, what exactly is a repeatable skill by your definition?"

Repeatable: I wasn't aware it had to be defined. In my opinion, noting he hit way worse than that in 2006 with a runner on 1B indicates it's not a skill he posesses from season to season. Or look at it another way: his crappy OPS with a runner on 2nd, which means what? When Ichiro leads off with a double, Turbo steps in with a mind to hit a weak grounder to third?

In 2006, his line with runners on was 271/.344/.377. A whopping .721 OPS. In 199 AB. This is not about power at all. It's about picking splits that show what you want them to show. You can do it, I can do it. It means nothing.

CHEMDORK - Only an outlier if you do the same thing for each team. Cherry Picking if you only do it to one team.

Really....who cares whether or not you have a dinner date or not. Write something of interest or push the paper to someone else.
Thank you

AK - No, not when you are trying to determine the number of wins or losses dependent on run differential. You are only looking at the run differential of that one team and the number of runs given up by Weaver in those 6 games are outliers. I'd be willing to bet my house that in the next 100 years there isn't going to be another pitcher with a run differential of -32 in his first 6 games.

As far as this idea of his job being to advance a runner from first: the job of the #2 hitter is the same as the job of every other hitter in the lineup. Which is, to not make an out.

Since everyone is having so much fun making numbers support their arguments when it comes to how bad Jose Vidro is, I thought I'd jump in and throw a comparison out there. Jose Vidro's best years to this point were from ages 25 to 30. I thought I'd compare his numbers from ages 27 through 29 to another player's (it should be noted that Vidro's peak season actually came at the age of 26, so those numbers are being omitted for this comparison)...the last "column" is total bases per plate appearance (since I didn't look up HBP and sac data, I'm counting plate appearances as AB+BB for the purposes of the numbers below):

Player A (1559 AB, 212 BB)
.315 Avg, .377 OBP, .482 Slg, .438 Total Bases/PA

Player B (1599 AB, 160 BB)
.318 Avg, .399 OBP, .477 Slg, .420 TB/PA

Which of these is Vidro? The one with the higher Slg and lower OBP, Player A. Note he also had more total bases per plate appearance.

Both players started experiencing injury problems at the age of 30. Vidro played in only 110 games that season, then 87 and 126, respectively, the following two seasons before playing in 147 last year for the Mariners. His struggles have been well-documented.
Player B had injuries that limited him to 42 games at age 30 and only 89 games at age 31. However, this player bounced back with a career year at age 32.
At this point in his career, Vidro has dropped to a .412 ratio of TB/PA, while Player B at the same age had achieved Vidro's previous level of .438 TB/PA.

It should surprise most of you that Player B is none other than Edgar Martinez.

Now, I'm not saying Vidro will ever be in Edgar's class, as Edgar put together a string of 7 unforgettable seasons where his LOWEST OPS was .966. But prior to age 32, Edgar had one season of .900+ OPS, just as Vidro had one season of .900+ OPS. Also note that Edgar's amazing run came mostly at the Kingdome, and asking Vidro to put up those numbers at Safeco Field is ridiculous.

My point is, both are known as supreme contact hitters. I don't think anyone would have believed Vidro was a better power hitter than Edgar through age 31, but the stats bear that out. Edgar's career high in homers at that point was only 18, while Vidro hit 24 and 19 in his two best power seasons.

Again, I don't expect Vidro to become Edgar. However, I think injuries and ballpark certainly play a larger role than most Vidro critics are willing to admit. Let's see how he does this year, especially if he has an injury-free season. And even more especially if he has Griffey in the lineup with him (I'm still waiting for his Bonds-like HR burst, sans the 'roids :-)

Hope you all had fun at the blog event tonight!

"Ichiroll-Phillipe Aumont was held in the same class as Felix Hernandez according to M's International Operations Director Bob Engle. Yet,Churchill believes Tillman and Butler should be ranked higher than Aumont. Scouting talent obviously is a major weakness for Prospect Insider along with bad information."

Anyone who thinks that Phillipe Aumont should be held in the same regard as Felix Hernandez doesn't have a clue what they are talking about.

Slight correction to my previous post...
Player A had 1599 AB and 160 BB
Player B had 1559 AB and 212 BB

All other stats were accurate

if the job of every hitter in the lineup is to not make an out, doesn't that point directly to Vidro being a successful DH for the Mariners considering he had the second highest OBP of all Mariner regulars, which directly points to making fewer outs?

If I were Adam I'd be elated if anyone on the Angels' pitching staff breaks down. Then if Seattle somehow does manage to beat them this year, you could claim it had nothing to do with the trade.

Actually, I did want to say I appreciate your dogged support of your position. In the end we're all M's fans, and you are just sticking up for what you believe. I'm not saying this because the trade happened. I really do like having different voices on the blog. It would get boring otherwise.

"Tell me, what exactly is a repeatable skill by your definition?"

Something that a hitter can actually control? There is no evidence that somebody magically becomes a better hitter when there is a man standing on first base, or runners in scoring position. "Clutchiness" isn't a skill, no matter how much people try and say it is.

There just isn't ANY evidence that the things you praise Vidro for are anything other than giant flukes.

No one has mentioned the fact that on a team of free swingers, Vidro is our most disciplined hitter and a strong complement to Ichiro. This likely factored very strongly when the Ms decision to acquire Vidro over a more traditional DH.

When both the lead off guy and the #2 hitter make great contact it sets the table for #3 and the clean-up hitter. Vidro had a marginal first half of the season but a very respectable second half of the season, most notably when the M's were in the hunt.

If fingers are going to be pointed, they should be directed, of course, at Sexson, who made a rite of stranding baserunners. Ibanez, likewise, didn't come on until the second half of the season. The offensive strength of this team was its balance up and down the lineup. Vidro is far less an issue for the Ms than hoping Sexson and Lopez show up to play and expecting that the numbers Jose Guillen put up will be replaced.

Ichiro and Vidro would have fit perfectly on Whitey Herzog's St. Louis Cardinals "small ball" teams of the mid-80s. The M's are more peculiar, though. They aren't nearly patient enough (except for Ichiro and Vidro) to play small ball, but they also don't have any glaring holes in the lineup to allow the other team to relax.

Here's to hoping that the lineup is as effective, top to bottom, as last year, not necessarily in power or patience, but in similar consistency top to bottom.

Here's an interesting article - http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=betweenthenumbers/ortiz/060405 - that discusses clutch hitting. It basically supports Flaceplant: The best hitters with men in scoring position are usually just good hitters. There's no real stat that proves "clutchness."
However, if you look at the list of the top clutch hitters in the past 30 years, look who is No. 14 on the list - our own Jose Vidro.
Just a little gasoline for the fire brewing over his real value.

“If fingers are going to be pointed....”

Not to mention that batting in front of ‘Big Sexy’ means never having to say, “I’m looking fastball.”

If having Vidro hit into double plays and spray little dinkers that occasionally roll past the second baseman and that be called one of the best clutch hitters of all time, I'd rather have a team full of non-clutch players like Griffey, Manny Ramirrez, Will Clark, and Albert Pujols anyday.

Anyone who thinks that Phillipe Aumont should be held in the same regard as Felix Hernandez doesn't have a clue what they are talking about.-Faceplant

Wow Facey. Do you presume to know more about scouting than Bob Engle?

Before making nonsensical statements like the one above, you should do a little research before putting your fingers on the keyboard.

Vidro was awesome. With the Expos. At some point you have to have a guy in the lineup that puts in fear to the opposing team. This team does not albeit Beltre is a stud.

Vidro is a good slap hitter but he is slow on the bases and does not change the game with one swing. This numbers thing is stupid. And Herzog's small ball won how many championships in the 80's?

We need pop in the lineup and proving that you are a math dork does not justify this team winning 100 games. We have slap hitters at 1-2 in the lineup and please tell me where you can't take a break...hmmm....Sexson....Lopez....Betancourt although he had moments.

Point is there is no one hitter other than Ichiro you pray to god doesnt get to hit. Beltre is the only other solid stud on this team.

Math sucks. Reality kills. If you want to be so smart with the numbers than lets negate your negative starts last year with the streak Weaver had when he was studly. Replace the losses with the wins and you even out...That's math fo' us dumb folk.

We are not there and not even close with a declining offensive roster.

Just because you don't understand Math doesn't mean it sucks. So to put it in a way that doesn't use math...yeah, I can do that too...while the offense might be slightly downgraded from last year with Guillen gone and Wilkerson in RF(although even that is up for debate)the M's won 88 games with that offense. Now I know what you are thinking, they over achived. Over achived compared to what? Oh, yeah, a math equation. Well that sucks so we can't use that reasoning, so all you can say is that they may win slightly fewer games with the replacement of Wilkerson for Guillen. Because really...could Sexson play any worse than last year? Probably not without getting benched and who on the offense played over their head? So based on offense they may be slightly less than 88 games. But the improvement in pitching by replacing their two worst starters last year with not another #4 and #5 pitcher, but a honest to goodness possible Cy Young contender and another above average pitcher (wouldn't average in a 5 man rotation be a #3? that math isn't too difficult is it?) Okay, say it is...say he's going to be our #5 it's a better #5 than last year, I think anyone would admit that.

I don't think it's a reach to say they can win 90+ games. I tried not to use math, except of course we need to be able to count how many game the M's so win. Do you not believe they can win that many because you can't count that high? Just wondering...

An appropriate DH is whatever type of hitter you most need to help balance and solidify your offense once the position players are set. Usually that is a power hitter, but on a team of Dave Kingmans the appropriate DH might be a singles hitter. If one buys the notion that the Mariners most need a #2 hitter who makes contact and gets on base a reasonable amount of time, then one can buy that Vidro is (ignoring his salary) an approriate DH for the current Mariners. I'm not sure Vidro is the appropriate guy myself, but someone made that judgement. For that judgement to be reasonable, you had to be getting production out of #3 - #5 at least, and realistically that is where the problem lies. If Ibanez and Beltre had had better starts, and if Sexson had done anything even close to reasonable production, then we wouldn't be fixated on Vidro. He, and Ichiro, would have likely each have had an additional 15 runs or more last season, and the issues of Pythag and Vidro's lack of production would be sideshows. And with solid production in 3-5 slots, Vidro would have seen more pitches that he could drive and help him get at least part of the way to Geoff's magical 40 doubles. The issue, then, seems to be a lot less Vidro than Ibanez's wretched start and Sexson's wretched total season. These are the guys we should be anxious about.

I agree and that is the point. We have a punch and Judy DH while lacking production from other prototypical power slots. Ibanez is only a drag in the field and if last year was a potential indicator we may find him producing even less this year. Add in his deficient defense and we are doing more subtraction...MATH..ICK!!

Sexson is a mystery but an expensive one. We should get power but we don't and that hurts and anyone that thinks 14 or 15 mil on the bench is gonna happen is going to cry.

Projection has been the base of both sides of the arguments....I want to see the players make their starts. Everyone is to quick to project a full season of both Bedard and Felix. It hasn't happened yet so if it does you are admitting the M's may not win 88 or are just average at best. If fate plays out and any of these two lord forbid both go down we are out the window. And no math geek can figure that out.

Oh, and I have never missed my time over target. Never. Math is good for me on low levels dropping stuff but bad for baseball. Just cuz I don't like it don't mean I can't use it. Don't presume.

Point is we don't have the firepower to win.

Of course everything in the preseason is projection, prediction, speculation. That is all one can do. Of course if Felix and Bedard go down for a long period of time that changes everything, injurys change everything...all I'm saying is the offense "projects" only slightly worse than last year and the pitching "projects" much better starting and "possibly" even when it comes to relief with the loss of Sherill, but less stress on the BP due to not being over used early in the season. Overall I would "speculate" a slight improvement over last year. For those saying that there is no way...well that just seems too pesimistic for the beginning of the season. I would love to see more pop in the lineup, but if you put it at the DH spot then who bats #2? Vidro is the best option for that spot on the roster. We have fire power, in our starting rotation and reliever, I'd take firepower there over in the rotation 10 times out of 10...or I mean any day of the week. Damn numbers...keep getting in the way in baseball...who'd a thunk it....

And please let's not forget Lopez. Some of us say he is "great" and an "All-Star", and that he should be able to "come back" in 2008 from his personal issues in 2007. Well, what exactly does anyone expect him to come back to? His "All-Star" season in 2006 (which really was a just a good April/May and gradual slide the rest of the way) looks like:

OPS+ 89, OBP .319, and Slug .465.

Even if he fully recovers to his "All-Star" season level, this is little to write home about, especially for a guy who doesn't situationally hit very well, can't lay down a bunt, and who defensively can't or won't cover first base on a bunt and occasionally fails to get to second on double play balls. This is a serious problem that deserves serious attention, yet doesn't seem to be sharply on the front office's radar screen.

Sorry, that slug should be .405....

After thinking about 2008 in light of the probable Bedard deal, my conclusion is that Ibanez and Lopez are our biggest worries heading into 2008.

Catcher
Kenji is the main man, but I'd like to see Clement start the year in AAA to play C full-time, then come up mid-season to platoon with Kenji.

First Base
I see Sexson as a Buhner clone. I expect him to be revert to form in 2008...did we all forget his first two years in Seattle? He averaged 157 G, 38 2B, 36 HR, 114 RBI, .263 Avg, and plenty of K's, but still lots of production. He just needs to be more patient...in his best seasons he was walking 90 times. These numbers lead me to believe he needs a threat behind him so he doesn't feel like he has to do it all. I don't think Ibanez or Beltre are enough of a threat to make pitchers give Richie fastballs.

Second Base
I'm comfortable with Lopez's D (contrary to Geoff and other's opinions), but he needs to prove himself this year. He doesn't have enough plate patience for my liking, although he's had good pop in the first half of the last two seasons. He must be in good condition and mentally sharp for the duration, or we'll be looking at moving Vidro there or (gulp!) starting Cairo/Bloomquist.

Third Base
Beltre is an all-or-nothing guy. He tries very hard, but sometimes is over-anxious. He is another in need of plate discipline, but that's not going to happen at this stage in his career. He's an ideal #6 hitter, less pressure but still a chance to drive in runs. I love his defense!

Shortstop:
Yuni is very exciting to watch and is coming on with the bat. Keep him in the 8/9 hole and let him work the glove!

Outfield
Centerfield = Ichiro. Enough said.
We need more speed in the outfield, but we also need more offensive production. Personally I expect Wilkerson to out-produce Raul in 2008. I know Ibanez is a Mariner fixture, though, so as much as I'd like to see us "sell" now, we won't move him. He's a bigger gamble in my mind this year than Lopez because of his age. If we could get a better RF, I'd rather see Wilkerson in LF with spot duty at 1B. Wilkerson will be serviceable enough to hit in the 7 spot.
As I've mentioned in previous posts, my dream RF would be Griffey, not just for fan appeal but because he can take the occasional DH day and is certainly a feared hitter.
If Griffey isn't here, though, I'm interested in giving Balentien a shot. He has plenty of pop, but may be a big strikeout guy too. If nothing else, maybe he'll have a big first have and be a trading chip for a deadline deal.

Designated Hitter
I'd like to see Vidro take the bulk of the DH at bats, but he should take a few spot starts at 2B to keep Lopez fresh too. Clement could see some DH time in the 2nd half when Vidro plays the field.

My lineup without Junior:
CF Ichiro
DH Vidro
3B Beltre
1B Sexson
C Johjima
RF Wilkerson
LF Balentien
2B Lopez
SS Betancourt

With Junior:
CF Ichiro
DH Vidro
3B Beltre
1B Sexson
RF Griffey
C Johjima
LF Wilkerson
2B Lopez
SS Betancourt

"Wow Facey. Do you presume to know more about scouting than Bob Engle?

Before making nonsensical statements like the one above, you should do a little research before putting your fingers on the keyboard."

First of all after doing a Google search I can't find a single article that quotes Engle as saying that Aumont is being held in the same regard as Felix Hernandez. He compares his skillset and upside to Roy Halliday, but that's all I can find.

Second, I do plenty of research without you having to tell me to. Phillipe Aumont is a raw 19 year old with no experience beyond prep ball. He has a heavy two seamer that he throws with good command. His fastball is easily his best pitch, and is much more polished than the fastballs of most people his age. He also throws a slider that while inconsistent has shown flashes of becoming a plus pitch. He also has a very raw change up that he rarely uses. He can't command his change or his slider with any regularity at all.

At age 19 (the same age) Felix Hernandez dominated AAA with 4 pitches that were all rated as plus major league pitches, before making his major league debut where he dominated major league hitters striking out 77 while walking 23 in over 84 innings.

If you compare the two at age 19 Hernandez is so much farther advanced that it isn't even funny. To pretend that they should be treated as if they possess equal talent is absolutely crazy.

Has Jeff Weaver found a home???