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Geoff Baker covers the Mariners for The Seattle Times. He provides daily coverage of the team throughout spring training, and during the season.

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February 4, 2008 10:15 AM

Bedard trade back on track

Posted by Geoff Baker

It took a while, but we've finally gotten it confirmed that Adam Jones is indeed in Baltimore taking his physical today. Would have liked to have this out to you last night, but unfortunately, we could not get anyone to verify it. Finally, we can. We'd rather be a few hours late than be wrong. Remember, how often folks had said Jones was in Baltimore prior to last night? Well, we told you that was not the case. Now, we can tell you this trade is about to finally go ahead.

Still seeking the whereabouts of Erik Bedard, the pitcher who is set to become the No. 1 arm in Seattle's rotation. Bedard, you may recall, was about to be traded to the M's eight days ago before Jones leaked news of the deal to Venezuelan reporter Augusto Cardenas of Diario Panorama. That set off a chain of events, most notably an angry reaction from Orioles owner Peter Angelos, that prompted Baltimore to cancel a Jones physical set for last Tuesday. The deal has been in limbo since.

We have not heard anything more about second baseman Brian Roberts being add to the package the M's will receive. I think it's safe to put that in the wild rumors category and assume this is a straight deal for Bedard. We'll let you know as soon as we hear more. For what it's worth, George Sherrill has not returned my calls for nearly 24 hours -- in complete contrast to what he'd done prior to yesterday. Sherrill usually returns all of them within the hour. A class act who will be missed in Seattle. This should be a good deal for both teams, no doubt about it. They are both getting pieces they want. Who "wins" this deal might not be determined for at least a year. It's very possible both teams will win.


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Posted by PositivePaul

10:39 AM, Feb 04, 2008

For what it's worth, George Sherrill has not returned my calls for nearly 24 hours -- in complete contrast to what he'd done prior to yesterday. Sherrill usually returns all of them within the hour. A class act who will be missed in Seattle

And here I had my hopes up...

Crap. I don't think anyone in or around Seattle will miss him as much as I will...

Posted by jkherz

10:43 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Finally we can get the #1 LH pitcher that this club needs for this season and beyond! Roberts would obviously be a huge addition to help improve the deal and our chances of unseating the Angels as division favorites, but he is not as important of a piece for our club. Hopefully we can sign Bedard to an extension either this year or next to be able to make the high price we are paying even more worth it...

Posted by PN

10:47 AM, Feb 04, 2008

"This should be a good deal for both teams, no doubt about it."

Can we save this phrase for the end of the season when Seattle finishes behind the Rangers?

Posted by Chris from Bothell

10:49 AM, Feb 04, 2008

"For what it's worth, George Sherrill has not returned my calls for nearly 24 hours -- in complete contrast to what he'd done prior to yesterday. Sherrill usually returns all of them within the hour. A class act who will be missed in Seattle."

*sigh* Cue the crowd of never-posted-to-this-blog-before idiots who will be chirping and misinterpreting this as Geoff feeling slighted somehow. *eyeroll*

Turning to spring training (pitchers and catchers in less than 2 weeks!), I wonder if there's any chance of some surprise coming out of there to make the starting 25.

For example, who's going to replace Sherill in the pen?

What name will we have never heard of, who will be this year's Morrow / Mark Lowe?

Will we be overanalyzing every Sexson at-bat with the same rabid fury that we have the Bedard deal?

And will we have any glimmer of hope that the outfield WON'T be "Ichiro and 2 guys on Segways..."?

I have this idle pipe dream that Balentien or Morse look so good in Arizona that they end up shuffling the lineup altogether, and we end up with Wilkerson in left, B/M/someone faster than a turtle in right, Raul at DH and Vidro to the bench. I know it won't happen; I know it's going to be Raul/Ichiro/Wilkerson in the outfield until the bitter end this year. But I can hope...

Posted by scrapiron

10:51 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Last week when the news of the trade leaked out it sounded like a 4-for-1 deal, Butler OR Makolio. Now it sounds like a 5-for-1 deal Butler AND Makolio. Did Bavasi have to sweeten the deal as punishment for allowing Jones to leak the news?

Posted by Kyle

10:52 AM, Feb 04, 2008

With all Angelos' parinoia about things getting leaked, I'm betting this deal was done two weeks ago but PA doesn't want anybody to know about it. It still will not be "official" and no announcement will be made until pitchers and catchers report. At that time we will all be speculating about what it means that Sherill showed up in Florida, wearing an Orioles uniform, pitching to Oriole catchers. The same speculation will be happening in Peoria with Bedard in an M's uni.

The rumor mills will be running at full power when Bedard pitches great for the M's in an opening day win. We will still wonder when/if this trade will ever happen.

Just my two cents ;)

For what it's worth, I hope this is the last time we EVER deal with the O's front office!

Posted by bhamhusky

10:55 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Geoff, Do you think the M's are running Bedard through a physical too? Another question. Might the rumors of Baltimore talking contract with Bedard been them checking out on behalf of M's (as M's may not have been given permission to talk to Bedard) to see what it will take to sign him to a deal? Baltimore's motive may have been that if Seattle reached a verbal agreement then Baltimore could get more in return for Bedard?

Posted by Preston

10:59 AM, Feb 04, 2008

How did this trade go from three players to five????? Seem's like we got the wool pulled over us if this is the case and Roberts is not included.... based on what the Mets gave up for Santana..... Seems like way to much, even though this is what we need.

Posted by PositivePaul

11:02 AM, Feb 04, 2008

For example, who's going to replace Sherill in the pen?

Um, how about NO ONE. George was arguably the best lefty RP in the AL last year (Okajima being the only one I'd argue over). Tough to replace a guy like that -- they don't just grow on trees.

That said, I think Potatoes O'Flaherty or Hyphen (RR-S) will be excellent options from the left side in the 'pen. We'll see if Arthur has anything left in the tank, too, in ST. He'll be a little more fun to watch if George is indeed out of the picture (so I don't have to worry about him strangling a roster spot that should've gone to George).

Posted by Brian Roberts

11:04 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Sorry. I'm not part of the trade. You guys got hosed . . . big time.

Posted by Alf

11:04 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Not hering from Sherrill is a good thing, I think.
Sounds like it is happening.
George seems like a class act, good, honest hard worker.
I hope he rips it up in Balitmore except when we play them.
Hoping he will be a good closer.
Prospects---we hardly knew ye, good luck gentlemen, and welcome #1 starter.
Bedard will like it here, but it is cold in April

Posted by erik

11:06 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Sherrill is a great player and a teriffic, but you can't blame Seattle for selling high on him, he is over 30 years old now

Posted by Librocrat

11:07 AM, Feb 04, 2008

I don't see why we'd get Roberts. They can trade him to another team for 3 more prospects. Why give him to us?

Posted by John Franco

11:10 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Since when did "30" become old for a left-handed reliever?

Yoiurs truly,

John Franco

Posted by Will Thompson

11:11 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Aw, jeez. Sometimes I really wonder what goes through Bavasi's mind sometimes. Bedard is good, yes, I mean really good, but he is not worth one of the top 10 prospects in baseball who could very much become the next Ken Griffey Jr. or Willie Mays, one of the best relievers in baseball and three other good prospects. Does Bavasi have a Magic 8 Ball that he consults about this trades and signings instead of actually live advisors?

Posted by ajdaddy

11:12 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Well, finally! Hopefully it can proceed from here. Roberts would be a good addition, but I'm putting that one down with the 'Jones' degenerative hip condition'' rumor. I'm most concerned with the setup man role that Sherrill occupied. He is north of 30, and with the occasional arm issue, but I think that if you've committed to making a starter out of Morrow, you need to stay with it. How close is Mark Lowe? What are they going to do with HoRam?

Posted by ansty in anaheim

11:16 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Geoff, why doesn't Morse get a deeper look to play RF? Given the opportunty, it seems like his offense was more productive than Jones. Why isn't he highly regarded by scouts?

Posted by WS Mark

11:16 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Will,

how do you know Wladimir Balentin won't be the next Jr., or WM, and we just protected him? Saying AJ is the next Jr. is quite a stretch.....

Still, we are giving up a lot, when we should be calling the O's bluff and pulling players off the table for jumping through these hoops. They won't get a better deal down the road...

That said, there are 1. a new spot on the 40 man if this goes through, 2. if Bedard doesn't resign and we stink it up, we have a nice trading chip for a pennant contender.

Posted by Brennan31

11:17 AM, Feb 04, 2008

How many spots on the 40 man roster will this trade open up? I see one, but not sure if any of the minor leaguers counted.

Thanks

Posted by WsuMojo

11:19 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Hey Chris from Bothell, I like Morse probably more than anyone else. But do you think he has a shot at making the roster even though he is out of options??? With the team always carrying 12 pitchers.....that leaves 4 roster spots. We know Burke, Willie and (that huge waste of a roster spot, dang you Bavasi) Miguel Cairo have 3 locked up. So can Morse win the last spot over a Reed or Jimerson since Willie is the only other player on the roster that can sub/rest the OFers? You know Ibanez & Wilkerson need plenty of rest. I don't see McLaren going into the season without a decent 4th OF defender, which will make us lose Morse.

Posted by Old Time Fan

11:19 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Well, if Bedard signs an extension and doesn't miss a lot of games due to injury, this trade will be decent for both teams. If not, we get to watch Jones blossom into a star in an Orioles' uniform and grit out teeth like we did with Lowe/Varitek.

I do feel kind of sorry for Jones and Sherrill. They are getting stuck with a pretty bad team that has no signs of improvement for quite a while.

Posted by WS Mark

11:20 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Posted by scrapiron

11:26 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Okay, I'm assuming this trade is complete, so now we can actually talk baseball. The bullpen as I see it:

Closer: Putz (duh)
RH Setup: Lowe and Morrow (and you must have now decided that Morrow will never be a starter and start grooming him to be a future closer)
LH Setup: Rhodes and O'Flaherty (both situational only, see below)

Batting Average Against
3-year splits: Sherril vs.LH .151/vs.RH .257
O'Flaherty vs.LH .193/vs.RH .315
So vs.LHers O'Flaherty compares favorably with Sherril, but the big difference is how well right-handers hit O'Flaherty versus Sherril. So O'Flaherty can be used to get left handers out, but cannot be your guy to just pitch the eighth inning, no matter what. McLaren/Stottlemyre really need manage this role well and bring in Morrow to face right handers and O'Flaherty to face left-handers in the eighth to protect a lead.

Arthur Rhodes? If he makes the team it would be as an extreme situational left-handed reliever. One or two left handed batters a night, tops. He could be effective, but his innings have to be monitored closely due to his age and health. He should not face right-handed batters to keep his arm fresh.

Ryan Rowland-Smith, by the way, fares worse against left-handers than right-handers, a disturbing trend for a southpaw. (.275 vs.LH/.266 vs.RH). His role seems more as a middle reliever at this stage of his career.

Posted by Adam

11:34 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Ok – I’ve finally resigned myself to the fact that this deal will happen. I hate it, I think it’s a HUGE mistake, and it will do much more harm than good to this franchise. Come the end of 2009, when Bedard signs with another team and we will have missed the playoffs for the eighth straight year, hordes of Mariner fans will admit that giving up Adam Jones and others was a mistake.

But now, what do the Mariners do to be sure to compete in 2008?

I’ve already laid out why it will be very difficult for the Mariners to catch the Angels. But what next?

First, I’d put Brandon Morrow in the pen as the chief set-up guy. I’m sure this will probably happen anyway, but Morrow needs to stay in the pen, which will sorely miss Sherrill. Now, if Morrow is in the pen again this year, he will never become a successful starter in this league, in my opinion. The Mariners have already retarded his development by keeping him in the pen last year, but it’s obvious they don’t care about the future, so let’s continue to remake Morrow into quite possibly the highest-drafted reliever in the history of baseball. He’ll be effective there, and if we get the 2006 Mark Lowe back, moving Sean Green to a longer RH reliever, the pen should be ok. It will not be as good as last year, but obviously that’s besides the point now…

Second, I would still sign Kevin Mench. The man is a lefty-killer, and should platoon at DH with Ibanez. If those two platoon as DH, we will get a .900 OPS hitter. Mench could also fill in as a fourth OF, but he’s not much better than Ibanez with the glove.

Third, say goodbye to Ibanez as your LF. I’d sign Corey Patterson to a one-year deal and put him in LF. Now, Patterson is pretty bad with the bat, but he’s an excellent OF – one of the better CFs in the game. Mariner fans should know that having two or three CFs in the OF is a huge plus. Given the immense difference between Ibanez and Patterson defensively, any downgrade we get at the plate from replacing Vidro with Patterson is nullified.

Fourth, we HAVE to replace Jose Lopez. I don’t think we can blame his freefall last year on his brother’s death, as unfortunate as that was. He tanked in the second half of 2006 as well. I’ve read some reports that the M’s were really down on him because of his work ethic. He needs to go. I’d look into acquiring a replacement, perhaps Mark Grudzeilanek from the Royals, who according to the Zone Ratings from Hardballtimes is a better defender and hit for 100 points more of OPS.

Finally, I’d put Wlad and Clement at Tacoma and not let them out until July at the earliest. Each has things they need to work on; Wlad with the bat and Clement with the glove. Both could provide a jolt by the trade deadline if need be.


So, that’s what I think remains to be done if we have any hope of catching the Angels. We get better defensively, offensively, and we try to patch up the downgrade in the bullpen.


Of course, when 2009 rolls around and we have to replace a 1B, 2B, DH, and two OFs, we’ll see how Bavasi or whoever patches up those self-made holes.


PS - this trade SUCKS.

Posted by usesomelogic

11:35 AM, Feb 04, 2008

I wonder what people in Baltimore will think when Sherril has an above 10 ERA in spring training like he always does.

I think the other inpact of this trade that no one is talking about is the pressure it takes off of the young arm of Felix. This could make him one of the premier pitchers in Baseball. Our rotation is now the deepest and best in baseball as long as everyone stays healthy. Can't wait until the opening series. Felix/Bedard against Texas, then Bedard will get to face his former team in the next series.

Posted by Tacoma Rain

11:37 AM, Feb 04, 2008


Geoff,
You bring up a good point in your last sentence…who wins this trade? It would be an interesting debate over what we all think makes this a winner or loser of a trade. I’d bet Merrill’s is much different than Adam’s and even Librocrat’s and Positive Paul’s would be differ from those.
Is it as cut and dry as the M’s make the playoffs in either of the next two years – winner
If no playoffs – loser
Or if Jones and Tillman become All-stars – LOSER
Or if all the prospects make the majors – Loser
Or none of the prospects make the majors – winner
Jones has career like Dave Henderson – loser

Posted by Mike

11:38 AM, Feb 04, 2008

Once again when this trade goes through I will jump on the Bedard for Cy Young bandwagon but creating two big holes to fill one seems like we are just treading water. Plus, with Sherrill gone we will be much more likely to use Morrow in relief than ever letting him learn to be a starter. Seems like a waste on such a high draft pick.

While I think we will regret this trade down the line, I could see the logic of making it if we were closer to the Angels than we are.

We essentially have three hitters, making a combined $27M a year who should never set foot on the field defensively. Our lineup is littered with high-contact, no-walk, low-power guys who don't work the count. When we are hitting single after single we are productive but when those singles find gloves (as they often do) we can't score for long stretches.

So, I am less than confident in a Bedard-led staff with the Ms as they are currently comprised. (And I say that knowing that a Bedard-Felix one-two punch would be awesome.) It seems like we are betting the farm on the rebounds of Sexson and Lopez and on the health of Raul Ibanez and Brad Wilkerson. That's an awful lot that has to go right.

Posted by AKMarinersFan

11:38 AM, Feb 04, 2008

A GOOD Deal? It is highly unlikely that this will be a GOOD deal for the Mariners. It is a GREAT deal for the O's.

It could be an OK short term deal if the Mariners make the playoffs this year.

There is not question this deal is a disaster in the long term. Three years from now Jones is an all star, Tillman is in the starting rotation, and Sherrill is still chugging along as the best LOOGY in the league. Bedard, he will be an all star too....for the YANKEES!

Posted by BaltimoreTony

11:42 AM, Feb 04, 2008

From the perspective of an Orioles fan(suffering)this should be a win-win deal. The M's get an excellent lefty. He can be a bit aloof....even grumpy...But he is a fierce competitor. If Bedard had pitched in NYC or Boston everyone in the country would be talking about him as a top 2 or 3 pitcher league wide. The O's get what they need....youth and hope. I think I see a light far in the distance......

Posted by Adam

11:43 AM, Feb 04, 2008

When is it a win for us?

Well, if we win the WS in either 2008 or 2009, obviously it's a win.

If we make the playoffs in at least one of those years, AND we re-sign Bedard, it's a win.

If we don't re-sign Bedard, it's a loss.

If we make the playoffs in either 2008 or 2009, re-sign Bedard, but don't win the WS, AND Jones becomes the player I think he can be (top 5 CF in baseball), it's a loss.


There are a ton more scenarios, but for me, it comes down to a World Championship or sustained success with more than two years of Bedard.

Posted by Max (Miami, FL)

11:44 AM, Feb 04, 2008

As an Oriole fan who does not live in Seattle or Baltimore, yours and the rest of the Seattle Times' excellent reporting has garnered clarity to such a confusing and hazy situation. As you all can see, Angelos is a horror to deal with. Imagine if he is running your favorite team. Unreal. I hope this doesn't sour any other major league clubs from dealing with the O's in the future. Angelos has burned so many bridges before, now he can add some more located in the Great Northwest.

Posted by Ken

11:44 AM, Feb 04, 2008

I really don't like this trade. Only having him for two guartanteed years is NOT worth sending all of that talent out the door...YOUNG talent at that. If we were only one piece away from World Series competition, then maybe...but that is not who we are. Remember when we traded David Ortiz? Veritek? Mike Hampton?

Posted by Frankie

12:03 PM, Feb 04, 2008

"Can we save this phrase for the end of the season when Seattle finishes behind the Rangers?"

You honestly think that Jones is the difference of 2nd place and last place??
Come on be serious. This is a great deal for the M's and 2008 will be a season to remember for them!!

Posted by mama

12:04 PM, Feb 04, 2008

This is not a good deal, IMO. We are giving up way too much. 5 players, 4 with HUGE upside, and 1 proven MLB pitcher, and we get one potential ace in Bedard. You guys can argue that Bedard is proven, but is he really? He has been on the DL almost every single season, and has had one great year. I hope Felix is relieved and feels less pressure. It would give us probably the best 1-2 punch in all of baseball. But what if it has the opposite affect? We have put him in the #1 Ace position for us for the last few years, and now that Bedard is coming, he gets knocked to #2. Wow, what a great way to thank him for all he has done and had to put up with. I really feel sorry for the 5 leaving and Bedard. This has been so hyped up that if one of them fail or don't live up to expectations, there will be chaos once again. It could go either way. We win or they do, or we both do. Time will tell. I mostly feel sorry for Jones and Sherrill. These guys are true gamers. For them, they are leaving the great NW and a team that could compete within their division to a team that is rebuilding and won't see the right side of .500 for a few years at least!

Posted by Chris from Bothell

12:07 PM, Feb 04, 2008

WsuMojo - Your reasoning against Morse making it to the bench as the last position player, is my argument for it happening. He can play (at least) left, 3rd and short. Theoretically 2nd as well. He's almost as versatile as Bloomquist.

Posted by downinthegroove

12:09 PM, Feb 04, 2008

This is the nail in the coffin for Bavasi. He is a horrible talent evaluator....I love how fans can be quick to defend Bedard and polarize by minimizing what Jones can do. All the kid has done is get significantly better every year....And you want trust a talent evaluator that signs Jeff Weaver and deems it smart to give up Soriano for HoRam.....This is going to be a hell of a train wreck!!

Posted by Dblog

12:11 PM, Feb 04, 2008

I'm furious over this trade! Bavasi has to be thee worst GM in all of baseball. He has robbed Peter to pay Paul, only Paul is still broke!

Posted by Tacoma Rain

12:11 PM, Feb 04, 2008

In my opinion, this trade is a win if any of the following scenarios happens:
- Bedard plays 5 or more years for Mariners, wins CY young once and Mariners make the play-offs atleast twice in next 5 years.
- A World Series win with Bedard on team as useful contributor
- None of the players we trade become All-Stars and the Mariner's make play-offs each of the next 2 years

There aren't too many other ways I can see as a winner though...

Posted by Librocrat

12:14 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Adam, I think I've said this before, but I'm glad you're here.

Posted by John

12:16 PM, Feb 04, 2008

To me this is not about which players do what to determine who wins in this deal. It doesn't matter if Jones becomes an All-Star if Bedard takes Seattle to the playoffs. If that happens, this trade will have been a success in my book. If Seattle doesn't make the playoffs during Bedard's time here, and Jones becomes an All-Star (or any of the other players go on to great things) then this is a loss for Seattle. But, ultimately, it's about making the playoffs, and, hopefully, the World Series.
For me, it's a team game. I could care less what kind of career Jones has if Bedard puts Seattle in the playoffs. I'm a Seattle Mariners fan ... not an Adam Jones fan, not a Bedard fan, not a Griffey fan, etc. I loved Griffey when he was here, but even with his greatness, he couldn't take Seattle to the World Series. In other words, I would have traded all of those great catches and homers by Griffey for one World Series. Some of you might not agree, but that's my personal philosophy.
I don't think keeping Jones is any more of a "guarantee" of making the playoffs than trading for Bedard. And I think Seattle's farm system has enough depth in it to make this trade, still survive and even produce some great prospects in the next four years. That's why I thought it was OK to do.
Last fall I was screaming for Ichiro to be traded to bring in the pitching we needed. I still maintain that's what we should have done. Then trading Jones would not have been necessary. But this is where we are, and I think it's the right move.

Posted by Tom

12:16 PM, Feb 04, 2008

The deal should have been contingent on Bedard signing an extension but with two years left on his current contract there was no way that was going to happen. Smartly he'll gamble that he'll have two really good years pitching in Safeco and then demand a ransom in free agency. Why Seattle is willing to give up so many players without an extension in place is beyond me. Shouldn't have had to offer more than Jones/Sherril and a prospect. If They don't re-sign Bedard, the deal is a lose/lose for the Mariners.

Posted by Ryan

12:18 PM, Feb 04, 2008

This is one of those trades that we better hope works out for us, as in playoffs or a world series appearance or title, or we just traded away a whole bunch of prospects for nothing.

It would be sweeter if Brian Roberts was part of this deal, but I've resigned myself to just holding out hope for Bedard only. George Sherrill will be missed badly by this club, but if O Flaherty and RRS can step up and do an adequate job, it might lessen the blow a little.


And Adam, for what it's worth, I do agree with you that Morrow should be the main set up guy, and he needs to stay in that role, and not flip flop back and forth. We can't make him a starter now, at least not this year.

Posted by WS Mark

12:18 PM, Feb 04, 2008

What would be a promising angle to this is if we get a good report on Lowe's progress from injury. This might cancel the bullpen issues a little bit. Geoff?

Owners, smowners, we've had our share: Smulyan, Argos, Behring, Schultz, Bennett..yes, we can feel adn sympathize your pain, O's fans.

Re; Felix, yes, this will relieve some "ace" pressure, but I still think he needs a kick in the butt and stop watching the Freddie Garcia "strut" tapes. I was happy to hear Mac say he was going to keep him in check this year.

Posted by built2crash

12:21 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Geoff,
after seeing what the twinkies got for Santana I can't believe your still think this is a good trade for both teams. It's a great trade for the O's no doubt, but the M's are giving up the farm and still have holes at first and second base, right field, and DH.

Posted by Jerry K.

12:21 PM, Feb 04, 2008

As an O's fan I see it as a win for us if by 2010 Jones and Markakis make up 2/3 of one of the top outfields in the ML AND two of young pitchers can win win 12 to 15 wins each (I think if that occurs and the Mariners have pretty much stayed the same then McPhail will look like a genius)!

Posted by flyaway24

12:22 PM, Feb 04, 2008

did we trade david ortiz? I remember derek lowe and varitek, but ortiz?? Maybe you're right, I just thought even as a Mariner fan nowhere near Seattle I would have remembered that one. I understand the basic logic behind "we're more than just one player away," but as Geoff clearly pointed out weeks ago, look at the turnover of World Series rosters from someone like the Red Sox. Not just a few, but many players from that '04 team were not there this past year. You never know what's going to happen from year to year, especially with Geoff's analysis also of W.S. winning teams' previous year win total. Just like we can't assume the M's were less than an 88 win team last year, we also can't assume they weren't and can't add a nice amount of W's onto that.

Posted by scrapiron

12:24 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Adam, you hit the nail on the head. The Mariners need to make the playoffs in 2008 or 2009 and sign Bedard to an extension to call this a win. I'm for this trade because I think that will happen.

I also love the doomsayers that say Adam Jones is the next Ken Griffey Jr. Talk about hype! Jones is a GOOD player and a future all-star. But he is not a hall of famer. He's closer to Mike Cameron than Junior.

And why aren't people making comparisons for Erik Bedard. He very well could be the next Randy Johnson. And as I remember the Mariner fans seemed to like his performance here.

Posted by flyaway24

12:28 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Yeah, i do believe that along with Bedard taking pressure off of Felix, he does have to make strides in his attitude. Don't get me wrong, I don't believe he's a liability because of it and I think he'll correct it, but his focus must remain strong throughout the entire season. The guy looks brilliant at times, but does anyone remember that game last season in Toronto when he didn't get that call he wanted? Right after that pitch he fell apart, the game got out of reach, and it seemed that we were instantly in the midst of another long slide (and we were). Things like that CANNOT happen this year! Every pitcher is going to have calls go their way and go against them.

Posted by downinthegroove

12:30 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Ortiz was traded but he had a different name. It is incredible what Bavasi is giving up for this trade. I can see positive to this but not in 2-3 years. I firmly believe we are not good enough to win now and are built to prove that. And great comment, we have the depth in the farm system to make this trade....Yup, but only once and now we have no farm system...AGAIN. But Vidro is a power DH and worth 7-8 Mil.....We dont have the bats like Boston to scare anyone...

Alas, Bobblehead Bill will leave his mark on the M's like Schultz did on the Sonics.

Posted by Ice Cream Guy

12:30 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Okay... now before anyone calls me an idiot... we might be missing something (either now or in 09). I seem to remember a RF with the Reds who wants to come home. If that is part of the plan... does that make the move less appealing?

Posted by downinthegroove

12:32 PM, Feb 04, 2008

An nobody is making Bedard comments because he is peaking now. And he is older ableit only a week then 2 time Cy Young winner Johan Santana.....So prove what?

Posted by Dandy Dan in Van

12:35 PM, Feb 04, 2008

If Roberts was coming here, we'd likely have heard Lopez's name as part of the deal. And Morrow. If Bavasi pulls this off (as a 4-for-1 deal, not the 5-1 rumour) then i can almost forgive him for the Soriano-for-Hector surrender -- okay, i'll never forgive that. But maybe the Guillen giveaway this winter.

Posted by Faceplant

12:35 PM, Feb 04, 2008

"He needs to go. I’d look into acquiring a replacement, perhaps Mark Grudzeilanek from the Royals, who according to the Zone Ratings from Hardballtimes is a better defender and hit for 100 points more of OPS."


Mark Grudzielanek is not the answer to any question you could possibly have. He's a right handed hitter who has no opposite field power, who would be playing in a park that is death to RH hitters. His OPS has been inflated by playing in Kauffman. When you average out his numbers with the Dodgers he posted a very Lopez-esque .705 OPS. The difference in defense between the two is pretty small.


Oh, and did I mention that Grudzie makes like 9 times what Lopez does, and will be 38 years old during the 2008 season. You'd be spending 9 times as much money for the right to make what is likely to be a lateral move.


Lopez is 23. The M's may be down on him, but it was them who rushed him to the majors. It was the Mariners who tinkered with his swing, choosing to focus on the things he didn't do, instead of focusing on what he did do. But at his age, and relative low salary I wouldn't call him a bust yet. I certainly value him higher than Mark Grudzielanek.

Posted by Faceplant

12:38 PM, Feb 04, 2008

"Ortiz was traded but he had a different name."


He truly was the... Player to be named later!


Ahhhhh, I crack myself up.


Posted by scottM

12:41 PM, Feb 04, 2008

If Bavasi hasn't been leveraging this extra week to work out the parameters of an extension with Bedard's agent, then he is an idiot. However, my sense is that the inclusion of a fifth player in the swap may have been predicated on the M's finding out where they stand with Bedard in this trade with regards to an extension.

I absolutely agree with you, Adam, on the importance of an extension.

From the vantage point of a 29-year-old pitcher, there is a huge downside in not going for broke NOW. If, gawd forbid, Bedard has a career ending injury this year or next, his big payday will never come. Going for a large 5 or 6 year deal while his stock is very high should make sense for Bedard.

From the Mariner's perspective, if you are going to trade this much potential for a TOR Lefty Ace, then there is no reason to vacillate on extending Bedard, now.

If the M's are going to make a 5 to 1 trade, then they need to move forward as though Bedard will be healthy during these prime years of his career.

Posted by Faceplant

12:42 PM, Feb 04, 2008

"I also love the doomsayers that say Adam Jones is the next Ken Griffey Jr. Talk about hype! Jones is a GOOD player and a future all-star. But he is not a hall of famer. He's closer to Mike Cameron than Junior."


I've never seen ANY credible talent evaluator say that Jones is the next Griffey. I'm not sure where this idea that people said this came from. I've heard people say that some of his tools are similar to Griffey, or reminded them of Griffey. But I've never heard ANYONE claim that he was the next Griffey, or as good as Griffey. It's just a myth.

Posted by Mark WS

12:45 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Ortiz was a thowin for Dave Hollins with MN. Arghhh. But such is "potential". Or potential busts: Jose Cruz Jr. You just never know. Who thought Brian Holman would be the (all most) no-hitter in the Langston/Johnson trade? Who can forget the stupendous Garcia/Morse-Reed and pick a catcher trade? *sigh*

Wouldn't you think that with just a one year contract, Bavasi would be on a short leash, and someone else in the FO would be looking over his shoulder and signing off on a trade that could/would have so much impact in the future, after he might be possibly gone/fired? I can't believe someone wouldn't be watchnig someone mortgage the Organizations future, just to save one mans job for one year. Who else is signing off on this?

Posted by Chris from Bothell

12:55 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Adam - I think I follow your logic in your suggestions for who to go get to shore up this year's lineup. 3 questions though:

1. Where's the money come from to sign them?
2. What convinces them to come over?
3. What does the daily lineup look like with those pieces - any L/R oddities, any cholesterol on the basepaths, any rally-killers not named Sexson in bad spots? I'm guessing your lineup would look like...

1. Ichiro
2. Beltre
3. Ibanez / Mench
4. Sexson
5. Joh
6. Grudzalaniek (sp.?)
7. Wilkerson
8. Patterson
9. Yuni

Posted by scrapiron

12:59 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Faceplant - Read Will Thompson, 11:11 AM, Feb 04, 2008 post above.

And he's not the first person I've heard call Jones a five-tool hall of fame talent. I heard the same outcry when we traded away the last five-tool Hall of Fame talent, Jose Cruz Jr.

He's good. But let's be real.

Posted by Frankie

1:00 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Why wouldn't Bedard sign an extension with the M's??

If we are a winning team and we pay him the money, then he will definitely re-sign....

Posted by Me

1:00 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Well is there any guarantee that Sherrill will ever have the season he had last year? Or even close to it?

People seem to assume the worst about Bedard all the while assuming Sherrill will continue to be lights out, especially on lefties.

Great, #1 starting pitchers (especially LH) are very rare in MLB. Isn't it easier to find a good LH RP and a RF/CF who plays good defense and should hit 20 HRs a year?

Posted by PositivePaul

1:14 PM, Feb 04, 2008

I wonder what people in Baltimore will think when Sherrill has an above 10 ERA in spring training like he always does.

HAHAHA, so true! Even I get nervous with the ST's George usually has...

Well is there any guarantee that Sherrill will ever have the season he had last year? Or even close to it?

People seem to assume the worst about Bedard all the while assuming Sherrill will continue to be lights out, especially on lefties.

Great, #1 starting pitchers (especially LH) are very rare in MLB. Isn't it easier to find a good LH RP and a RF/CF who plays good defense and should hit 20 HRs a year?

George's track record against lefties is long -- longer than Bedard's track record as a #1-ish pitcher.

If he is going over to B'more, then Ortiz, Giambi, and all the other fantastic LH hitters in the AL East are probably trembling in their boots.

And I'm trembling in my boots with the thought of Raul facing him in the 7th or 8th...

Posted by Bellevue Rob

1:18 PM, Feb 04, 2008

How about Clement as back up C / DH / 1b ?

Posted by scottM

1:20 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Lance, I think that two factors, insurance and bullpen help, is why the M's signed HoRam this year. Also, last year he looked pretty good in his relief appearances. He tends to do well for a few innings and then give up the big inning, so maybe having him come out of the pen makes sense (even tho this is an expensive option).

It's interesting, too, that last year Washburn was talked about as our #2 starter, now he is #5. This is definitely an upgraded rotation!

Finally, Sherrill had GREAT numbers until crunch time, then he gave up several clutch hits. Some of this may be due to being overworked, but he was so situational that he wasn't ever overused. Makes me think that George, a great guy and teammate, had his best season last year.

Posted by NB

1:20 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Hey Adam and Faceplant disagreeing! I thought you two were supposed to be the same person?

Ahhhhhh I miss Cubby.

Posted by scottM

1:21 PM, Feb 04, 2008

By crunch time, I mean, in late August during the pennant race.

Posted by Me

1:27 PM, Feb 04, 2008

This year, when Sherrill pitched 45 innings, was the first time has has had a sub 3.50 ERA in his entire career.

Did you know that he only has 128.1 innings under his belt? Not a tremendous sample size.

I'd much rather have a #1 who pitches straight to Putz or goes 7 and leaves with a 4 to 1 lead. What's the point of having a great LH RP who pitches to just 1 or 2 batters at a time if you're up 7 to 6 b/c your starter only went 5.1 innings and couldn't get you an easy win?

All hypothetical of course, but hope you see my point.

Posted by bhamhusky

1:29 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Seattle Mariners Top 40 Prospects
I suppose you nay sayers would have been be ticked two years ago if the M's traded Nageotte, Henandez and Snelling along with two lower prospects for a legit # 1 starting ace pitcher such as Halladay or Santana.

As for AJ being compared to Jr. you that do so are complete jokes. Did you watch baseball when Jr. was AJ's age? To see his naturalness in the field. Knowing where the ball is heading at the crack of the bat. AJ is lost out there. Sure he has speed, but he is no JR!

2005 M's top prospects
1. Clint Nageotte, RHP
2. Felix Hernandez, RHP
3. Chris Snelling, OF
4. Jose Lopez, SS
5. Travis Blackley, LHP
6. Ryan Christianson, C
7. Shin-Soo Choo, OF
8. Rett Johnson, RHP
9. Cha Seung Baek, RHP
10. Wladimir Balentien, OF
11. Ryan Anderson, LHP
12. Jeff Flaig, 3B
13. Miguel Martinez, LHP
14. Ryan Feierabend, LHP
15. Adam Jones, SS
16. Jesus Guzman, 3B
17. Ryan Ketchner, LHP
18. Emiliano Fruto, RHP
19. Bobby Madritsch, LHP
20. Justin Leone, 3B
21. Jamal Strong, OF
22. Aaron Taylor, RHP
23. Jeff Heaverlo, RHP
24. Matt Thornton, LHP
25. Bobby Livingston, LHP
26. Troy Cate, LHP
27. Cesar Jimenez, LHP
28. Josh Womack, OF
29. Tom Oldham, LHP
30. Ivan Blanco, RHP
31. Ruben Flores, RHP
32. Michael Wilson, OF
33. Glenn Bott, LHP
34. Luis Oliveros, C
35. Oswaldo Navarro, SS
36. Greg Dobbs, 3B
37. Cristian Guerrero, OF
38. Ismael Castro, 2B
39. Reve Rivera, C
40. Juan Gonzalez, SS

Great trade! Way to go Bavasi! Bedard is a stud, not a maybe.

Posted by PositivePaul

1:29 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Finally, Sherrill had GREAT numbers until crunch time, then he gave up several clutch hits. Some of this may be due to being overworked, but he was so situational that he wasn't ever overused. Makes me think that George, a great guy and teammate, had his best season last year.

Nah, he's got better years in him. I'd be willing to make that bet. After all, with Bavasi threatening to come after me (and slash my throat) at FanFest if he drops Horacio Ramirez and he succeeds elsewhere -- I'd already be dead in the alternate universe where George wouldn't be able to improve on his 2007 numbers. Still, Camden is a little less friendly to lefty pitchers than Safeco is, so you might have a point...

And, yes, I believe he was overworked last year. Just because he didn't pitch a ton of innings, he either warmed up for or appeared in 100+ games last year. There were times when he clearly needed 2-3 days off at least where he was told to warm up and never made it into the game. That will affect ANYONE's performance...

Posted by Jesse Orosco

1:30 PM, Feb 04, 2008

30 is too old for a reliever? Who says? I sure don't agree!!!!

Posted by bhamhusky

1:33 PM, Feb 04, 2008

OK, I feel like an idiot.
I meant to say:
1:29 PM, Feb 04, 2008
I suppose you nay sayers would have been be ticked two years ago if the M's traded Nageotte, Blakely and Snelling along with two lower prospects for a legit # 1 starting ace pitcher such as Halladay or Santana.

Posted by Me

1:35 PM, Feb 04, 2008

So has Sherrill be over worked the last 3 years then? Because his pre All-star ERA is 2.25 (in 52.2 innings) but his post All-star ERA is 4.96 (in 52 innings).


Posted by downinthegroove

1:37 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Flakey point. Just because they are highly rated in one system does not mean that they would be of value in a deeper system. What I think this little charade does is show absolutely how poorly this current administration is at evaluating talent. Do you seriously think that Santana or Halladay would have been traded for any of those jokers?

Posted by IronTech

1:41 PM, Feb 04, 2008

David Ortiz was known as David Arias when he was part of the Seattle organization. Once he arrived in Minnesota as the PTBNL in the Hollins deal, he told the Twins that he wanted to be known as David Ortiz. Now you know the rest of the story...

Posted by bhamhusky

1:44 PM, Feb 04, 2008


1:37 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Flakey point.... "Do you seriously think that Santana or Halladay would have been traded for any of those jokers?"

Probably not. But you missed my point. We know Sherril is decent. Who is to say that Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler won't in 3 years be viewed as jokers? Who is to say that Adam Jones will be an all star and not a avg. CF?
You don't know and neither do I. What we do know is that Bedard is a # 1 starter in MLB and he is now a Mariner! This is awesome! You go for the sure bet anytime. Do not wait on "prospects".
Do you know why they are called "prospects" and not sure bets?

Posted by bhamhusky

1:46 PM, Feb 04, 2008

you said:

1:41 PM, Feb 04, 2008

"David Ortiz was known as David Arias when he was part of the Seattle organization."

I SAY
For every David Ortiz I can show you 200 awesome prospects that were busts.

Posted by Erik Bedard

1:47 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Seattle Mariners TOP TEN PROSPECTS 2008 (Baseball America)
1. Jeff Clement, c
2. Phillippe Aumont, rhp
3. Chris Tillman, rhp
4. Carlos Triunfel, ss
5. Wladimir Balentien, of
6. Michael Saunders, of
7. Juan Ramirez, rhp
8. Mark Lowe, rhp
9. Ryan Rowland-Smith, lhp
10. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3b

I just got traded for a Mike Cameron clone, an Independent League All Star,the M's #3 prospect (who rates as a 4th Starter by BA, + 2 dudes note even on the list?!

Seems like a pretty reasonable price for a team who's spent $100 million on Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, Carlos Silva, and Jeff Weaver.

Posted by downinthegroove

1:53 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Fool's gold is why they are called prospects and sure things. Show me that Bedard can stay healthy and that he can be signed for longer than two years.

No misunderstanding here. The problem is our system finally had some depth and potential contributors but we just dumped them. Now we have a unproven "#1" and no depth to supplement a weak team.

If you don't wait on prospects you have a huge payroll and lack of championships....MARINERS!!!

There is no sure thing but you have to have a balance. You have to draft and develop players while signing and trading here and there but if you think 5-1 is smart you are silly. We are giving up way more for Bedard than the Mets did for Santana and they have a couple of "Prospects" they never gave up on as cornerstones. We are nowhere near as good as them and well...Here we sit.

The future is gone and for what? As much as a question mark the prospects we traded are, the same can be said for Bedard....How many had Lopez pegged as a perennial All-star after last year (whic may still be true) but there ya go.

Posted by NB

1:56 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Not all prospects are created equal. There are ways to educate yourself. If you think that this isn't a HUGE pool of talent with a lot of value around MLB then you just don't know what you're talking about. Bedard is a great talent. But don't try to justify this trade by bad mouthing what we're giving up. It's gigantic. Possibly Colon for Sizemore-esque.

Posted by scrapiron

1:58 PM, Feb 04, 2008

It's interesting we're talking 2005, since that was the year the Mariners needed pitching and Jeff Nelson criticized the Mariners for not making a deal that year at the deadline.

Now it's 2008, let's look back at this rumored deal that was supposedly discussed. Would you have done this deal in 2005?

Clint Nageotte, Randy Winn and Jose Lopez traded to the Arizona Diamondback for Javier Vazquez and Mike Koplove.

Posted by Donovan

1:59 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Thank you Scrapiron. You put your finger on the issue that hasn't been aired enough in this debate. The likelihood that Bedard will become the most dominant lefty in the AL is far higher than the likelihood that AJ will become a star, especially in the short term. EB has already demonstrated his potential convincingly at the ML level. The injury that knocked him out of the Cy Young discussion last year wasn't career threatening - it was an oblique, which is notoriously slow to heal, but it wasn't an arm or shoulder problem. The posts here calling Jones another Jeremy Reed are unjustified. He's going to be good. But the posts dissing Bedard (I think someone called him Gil Meche yesterday) are really stupid. He's already shown the ability to dominate AL hitters. We don't have to project his minor league numbers. He's already there.

The most vociferous condemnations of this trade seem to be based on a love of Jones' potential (which I understand and respect) and a hatred of Bavasi (which I understand, but which is completely irrelevant to assessing the trade). If Bedard plays to his potential in Seattle (not a lock, but there are few reasons to doubt that he will), he will go far futher in making us competitive with the Angels than Adam Jones or any of the other guys headed east.

Every move is a gamble on a set of players (including doing nothing). Bavasi is gambling big time on Bedard. I think it is a good bet. The ultimate test will be whether the M's make or contend for the playoffs while Bedard is here (how ever long that is). If Bedard has a great year and we make the playoffs in '08, then you can't call it a bad trade. What Adam Jones does in Baltimore is irrelevant. The important thing is what happens here, and the criterion for success is unambiguous - making the postseason in 08 or 09. Time will take all the speculation out of this matter, but that's the issue as I see it. I hope AJ does eventually blossom into an All Star, because I think he's a nice kid, but that isn't going to factor into my ultimate evaluation of the deal. I'd trade a future All Star for a trip to the playoffs any day.

Posted by Mike

2:01 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Once again, Jones is not a Mike Cameron clone. Jones hit better against superior competition at a younger age than Cameron.

Scouts don't consider him a prospect anymore but if they did, he'd be top 10 and in the top 2-3 at a premium postion.

The Ms HAVE to make the playoffs for this trade to be a miserable failure and as constructed, minus Sherrill and Jones, plus Bedard, they are still not better than Anaheim or good enough to win the wildcard unless they get very very lucky. And good baseball front offices don't count on or mortgage the future on luck.

Posted by Mark WS

2:02 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Posted by Erik Bedard
1:47 PM, Feb 04, 2008
Seattle Mariners TOP TEN PROSPECTS 2008 (Baseball America)
1. Jeff Clement, c
2. Phillippe Aumont, rhp
3. Chris Tillman, rhp
4. Carlos Triunfel, ss
5. Wladimir Balentien, of
6. Michael Saunders, of
7. Juan Ramirez, rhp
8. Mark Lowe, rhp
9. Ryan Rowland-Smith, lhp
10. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3b

I just got traded for a Mike Cameron clone, an Independent League All Star,the M's #3 prospect (who rates as a 4th Starter by BA, + 2 dudes note even on the list?!

Seems like a pretty reasonable price for a team who's BLEW UP $100 million on Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, Carlos Silva, and Jeff Weaver.

FIXED! Great post!

Posted by downinthegroove

2:04 PM, Feb 04, 2008

I believe this is foolish because: WE ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. Period.

That roster cannot get it done. Period.

Bedard is too little too late. Maybe a few years ago but not now.

This is a highlight move to try and save a job.

Desperation kills.

Posted by Mike

2:05 PM, Feb 04, 2008

er, uh, for this trade NOT to be a miserable failure. :-)

Posted by Me

2:13 PM, Feb 04, 2008

What if the M's do make the playoffs? Wilkerson adds another lefty bat so we don't rely on Raul as much and brings more balance to the line-up.

Even more importantly, how do you like Bedard and Hernandez starting the first two games of the first playoff series? Having two very strong pitchers like that sure makes a play-off series much more winnable.

Posted by goms

2:14 PM, Feb 04, 2008

its funny some of you guys think this is a bad trade for the ms.here is the 2001 top prospect list i thought their was some funny top prospects on here
1. Josh Hamilton, of, Devil Rays
2. Corey Patterson, of, Cubs
3. Josh Beckett, rhp, Marlins
4. Jon Rauch, rhp, White Sox
5. Ben Sheets, rhp, Brewers
6. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres
7. C.C. Sabathia, lhp, Indians
8. Ryan Anderson, lhp, Mariners out of baseball
9. Ichiro Suzuki, of, Mariners look at #8,so hes better than ichiro..haha
10. Nick Johnson, 1b, Yankees
11. Carlos Pena, 1b, Rangers
12. Vernon Wells, of, Blue Jays
13. Roy Oswalt, rhp, Astros
14. Drew Henson, 3b, Reds
15. Chin-Hui Tsao, rhp, Rockies
16. Antonio Perez, ss, Mariners
17. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs
18. Alex Escobar, of, Mets
19. Jerome Williams, rhp, Giants
20. Bobby Bradley, rhp, Pirates
21. J.R House, c, Pirates
22. Hee Seop Choi, 1b, Cubs
23. Joe Borchard, of, White Sox
24. Austin Kearns, of, Reds
25. Chris George, lhp, Royals
26. Donnie Bridges, rhp, Expos
27. Alfonso Soriano, ss, Yankees
28. Matt Belisle, rhp, Braves
29. Wilson Betemit, ss, Braves
30. Kurt Ainsworth, rhp, Giants
31. Jimmy Rollins, ss, Phillies
32. Felipe Lopez, ss, Blue Jays
33. Adam Dunn, of, Reds
34. Jose Ortiz, 2b, Athletics
35. Brad Wilkerson, of, Expos
36. Joe Crede, 3b, White Sox
37. Ben Christensen, rhp, Cubs
38. Jack Cust, of/1b, Diamondbacks
39. Bud Smith, lhp, Cardinals
40. Jacob Peavy, rhp, Padres
41. Adam Johnson, rhp, Twins
42. Albert Pujols, 3b, Cardinals #42?nice scouting
43. Aubrey Huff, 3b, Devil Rays
44. Matt Ginter, rhp, White Sox
45. Wes Anderson, rhp, Marlins
46. D'Angelo Jimenez, ss, Yankees
47. Brett Myers, rhp, Phillies
48. Dee Brown, of, Royals
49. Tim Redding, rhp, Astros
50. Joe Torres, lhp, Angels
51. Matt McClendon, rhp, Braves
52. Jason Standridge, rhp, Devil Rays
53. Wascar Serrano, rhp, Padres
54. Marcus Giles, 2b, Braves
55. Michael Cuddyer, 3b, Twins
56. Kevin Mench, of, Rangers
57. Wilfredo Rodriguez, lhp, Astros
58. Mike Bynum, lhp, Padres
59. Jason Hart, 1b, Athletics
60. Tony Torcato, 3b, Giants
61. Dan Wright, rhp, White Sox
62. Alex Cintron, ss, Diamondbacks
63. Pat Strange, rhp, Mets
64. Brian Cole, of, Mets
65. Jovanny Cedeno, rhp, Rangers
66. Adrian Hernandez, rhp, Yankees
67. Brandon Inge, c, Tigers
68. Carlos Zambrano, rhp, Cubs
69. Jesus Colome, rhp, Devil Rays
70. Eric Munson, 1b, Tigers
71. Francisco Rodriguez, rhp, Angels
72. Carl Crawford, of, Devil Rays
73. Luis Montanez, ss, Cubs
74. Dane Sardinha, c, Reds
75. Abraham Nunez, of, Marlins
76. Brad Baker, rhp, Red Sox
77. Dernell Stenson, 1b/of, Red Sox
78. Brad Baisley, rhp, Phillies
79. Mike MacDougal, rhp, Royals
80. Joel Pineiro, rhp, Mariners
81. Ryan Ludwick, of, Athletics
82. Xavier Nady, 3b, Padres
83. Nick Neugebauer, rhp, Brewers
84. Justin Miller, rhp, Athletics
85. Lance Niekro, 3b, Giants
86. Chin-Feng Chen, of, Dodgers
87. Tony Blanco, 3b, Red Sox
88. Danys Baez, rhp, Indians
89. Adrian Gonzalez, 1b, Marlins
90. David Espinosa, ss/2b, Reds
91. Miguel Cabrera, ss, Marlins
92. Jason Marquis, rhp, Braves
93. Luis Rivas, 2b, Twins
94. Juan Uribe, ss, Rockies
95. Ramon Santiago, ss, Tigers
96. Keith Reed, of, Orioles
97. Adam Wainwright, rhp, Braves
98. Chris Snelling, of, Mariners
99. Joe Lawrence, c, Blue Jays
100. Matt White, rhp, Devil Rays
5 mariners on this list and the only player worth a damn is ichiro..its pretty funny how low on this list all stars are on here..bedard for an ageing reliever and 4 maybes?but more than likely none of them will be the same calabur as bedard.

Posted by Frankie

2:17 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Um scrapiron, the year that Jeff Nelson criticized the M's was 2003, not 2005. Just thought I would clear that up...

Also, I agree with "Me". Having Bedard and Felix at the top of the rotation is a MAJOR plus.

Adam Jones was never our starter so you can't say that you are losing offense and defense in Jones, mainly because you never had the offense and defense in Jones.

Knock Wilkerson all you want but just remember that everyone knocked Guillen before last year and I think we all know what he did...

Posted by Frankie

2:19 PM, Feb 04, 2008

I think we need Cubby's opinion on this. Where is Cubby?

Ohhhhh Cubby where are you???

Posted by jkherz

2:23 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Well, for the most part it looks like pessimism was served again in a lot of this blog's coffee...

It's too bad many of you aren't able to see that you just can't get something from a trade without giving something up in return.

Are we giving up a lot? - Yes. Are we getting a lot back? - Yes. Are there risks for BOTH teams? - Yes. Could this be a deal that works for both teams? - Yes.

I just hope all of you against this trade realize how hard it is to get a quality #1 LH starting pitcher. If Bedard stays healthy and we can sign him to an extension - two big ifs, I know - he becomes a major piece of this team's foundation. Along with Felix, we will no longer go into the offseason with the pressure to find a top-of-the-rotation starter so we can focus on developing #3-#5 SP's, Bullpen arms, and positional players. Sounds like a lot of work, yes, but each of those areas are easier to address than #1 or #2 SP's.

Posted by PositivePaul

2:25 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Damn this comment box! I need to learn to copy and paste my comment before posting if I'm putting in a little research to my post. Stupid captcha changed, and my post was swallowed. Nevertheless. From memory...

-----------------------------

So has Sherrill be over worked the last 3 years then? Because his pre All-star ERA is 2.25 (in 52.2 innings) but his post All-star ERA is 4.96 (in 52 innings).

One could argue that it was Julio "Inherited Runners Allowed To Score Via Home Run" Mateo that threw too much. After all, a RP has very very little control over his ERA, especially if he's just a guy who comes in for 1-2 batters.

In 2007, George inherited 71 baserunners (per ESPN. Know how many of those scored?

16.

One of the best ratios for RPs in baseball...

Posted by Donovan

2:26 PM, Feb 04, 2008

One other Bedard comment and I'll shut up. Every comment I've read by Bedard says that he is signable by the M's. Why do people doubt it? He clearly wants out of Baltimore (can you blame him?) and he apparently doesn't like Leo Mazzone. A key factor may be how he and Stottlemyre interact. I don't know of any other potential negatives. This isn't A-Rod we are talking about, who needs to be worshipped. He is, by all accounts a fierce competitor who hates to lose. He has said that he doesn't want to live in the spotlight of NY/Bos, but wants a home where he feels comfortable and can compete every year for the playoffs. He's a small city kind of guy, and a Canadian even. Seattle is about as Canadian a major U.S. city as I know of. He will fit in here fine. The key thing to attracting and keeping star players is success. That ultimately is why we have trouble here. We haven't had a lot of success. If Bedard pitches well here and the M's win, and the two things are closely correlated in the minds of fans and ownership, then why wouldn't he re-sign? We can pay compete salarywise with most teams in MLB.

It is always a safe bet to predict that any given team will fail to win it all. Personally, I predict that NY will finish behind BOS and TOR this year. To say that we aren't even in the same league with the Angels is crazy. With Bedard, I'll take our rotation over theirs in fact. I'll also take our bullpen over theirs without Sherril. Our offense is the big question mark, but so is theirs, and that includes Vlad. How healthy will he be this year? You could make a case that he's on the verge of the big decline. Ditto Anderson. Hunter was a great pickup, but he's hardly a franchise player. The Angels will be favored in the West this year, but we can be competitive with them. You can't say that anything short of being a prohibitive preseason favorite makes the season pointless.

Posted by NB

2:28 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Goms-

Ummmmm dude you do realize that a substantial percentage of the best players in baseball this decade are on that list?

This point. I don't think this point means what you think it does.

Posted by Me

2:39 PM, Feb 04, 2008

I'm not denying that George Sherrill is a nice LH RP; I just happen to think that far too much is being made of losing a pitcher who only faces 180 batters a year vs. 733 for Bedard despite a pulled olique muscle.

I'd much rather worry about who's going to face those 180 batters rather than who's going to be my #1 starter facing 4 or 5 times the amount of batters.

Posted by Chopper58

2:44 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Well lets put it this way, with Bedard coming to the Mariners, our chance of making the playoffs are much greater than not having him in our team. I know this has been discussed at nauseum, but Geoff's blogs over the last couple of weeks has shown that it is not impossible to make the playoffs and that we indeed can become contenders. There is no certainty in trades, there are always risks. But this is a trade that should be viewed as beneficial for Seattle.

Posted by NB

2:44 PM, Feb 04, 2008

"I'd much rather worry about who's going to face those 180 batters rather than who's going to be my #1 starter facing 4 or 5 times the amount of batters."

And who's going to start in RF.

And who's going to pitch beyond 2009.

Etc.

Posted by Pete

2:47 PM, Feb 04, 2008

goms -

Dude, your list defeats your own argument. It's a who's who of some of the very top TOP players in the game.

...

Maybe I'm not understanding the point?

Posted by Me

2:50 PM, Feb 04, 2008

If I'm not mistaken, isn't Brad Wilkerson going to start in RF? Can't Wlad and Morse also be options there for back-up?

I say get Bedard in here and hopefully he'll like the place. If he has a good first year and is relatively injury free, why not see if he's willing to sign an extension if the M's renegotiate his 2009 year too?

It's not a given either way that he's going to walk after 2009 or that he won't resign with the M's (or that he'll extend after the 2008 season).

Posted by HelpFelix

2:56 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Land Bedard, and then trade Washburn for Griffey straight up. You add Griffey’s power LHB to our lineup, and Seattle would be set for a WS run! Plus Safeco would be completely PACKED every home game! AND that would be nearly a salary wash between the two contracts, and Cincy was our main competitor for a LHP with Bedard, but didn’t want to give up Bailey/Votto/Bruce for him. With Washburn they get their decent LHP. The only thing with Washburn being traded is that we would be dependent upon Morrow moving to the #5 spot, and our bullpen would take a MAJOR hit with both Sherrill & Morrow out of it.

I would outright FLIP “if” Roberts & Lopez were part of that same deal! But I’m not counting on that!

I’ve been the biggest supporter of keeping Clement’s power LHB for our lineup, but with Johjima rated #7 as catchers going into 2008 I’m almost positive Bavasi will resign Johjima to another 3 years by April 1st. Clement would become a backup catcher, along with Burke, and spend most of the time @ DH. That’s fine if it’s taking bats away from Vidro to prevent his 2009 option from vesting, but wouldn’t sit well for a Griffey return UNLESS they would actually think about putting Griffey in RF?! I don’t like that thought, and would want him to just DH for us.
The “other” option that is “still” on the back burner is the Snell/JasonBay trade. Clement would definitely be involved in that trade, because Pitts is “desperate” for a decent catcher with pop. After acquiring Bedard, “if” Bavasi could land Snell/Bay for Clement ++ prospects, I would have to say I’d be all for that. Yes our farm would take a bit more of a hit with Clement leaving, but the M’s would immediately jump to WS contenders.

This is what I would LOVE to see:

1)Bedard trade completed for Jones/Sherrill/Tillman (Lopez & Butler included “if” Roberts was included)
2)Trade Clement/Wlad Plus 1 more low level prospect for Snell & Jason Bay
3)Trade Washburn straight up for Griffey (Salary wash)

2008 Rotation
Bedard
Felix
Silva
Snell (w/Snell Morrow is setup man)
Batista

2008 Lineup
CF Ichiro
2B Lopez Or Roberts
1B Sexson
DH/RF Griffey
3B Beltre
LF/DH Ibanez
C Johjima
RF Wilkerson
SS Betancourt

2008 Bench
IF/DH/PH Vidro
IF/OF Willy
IF Cairo
DH Griffey
C Burke

2009?
1.Decline Griffey’s option & renegotiate contract
2.Resign Ibanez @ 1B

Posted by NB

2:56 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Yes Brad is the pencil in at RF. However, if we're relying on either Wlad or God forbid Morse to fill in either platoon (since Bradley can't hit lefties) or fill in when he inevitably misses 25-50 games then we are screwed.

Compared to six years of cheap, effective play by Jones.

Ouch.

Posted by Glen

3:02 PM, Feb 04, 2008

NB,

Where did you get he can't hit lefties?

He hit lefties better than he hits righties

Posted by Klatz

3:02 PM, Feb 04, 2008

We're not going to know the worth or folly of this trade until 2-3 years passes.

For it to be worth the M's will at least need to get to the playoffs (and that means win the division there's a lot less chance to win the WC) in the next 2 years.

Furthermore, the Ms will also need to be competitive in the following 2-3 years after that.

Big questions for the next year. Will Bedard provide the pitching that we expect? Will the loss of AJ and GS matter enough to counteract the benefit of Bedard? Will Jones fulfill on his promise?

Then in the following years, can we find good and not overly expensive replacements for RF, LF, 1B, 2B (maybe), middle of the rotation, and maybe top (if Bedard leaves).

My biggest problem is that I have a feeling that this trade needs to made not because the teams needs it but because Bavasi does. His job is on the line apparently. Would Bavasi had made this trade if he felt secure in his position? IMO he wouldn't.

Posted by nb

3:09 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Glen-

Excellent catch. I had another player's numbers in mind and didn't double check. I screwed the pooch on that one. Thanks for holding me to it.

My comment on the likelihood of injury remains.

Posted by marc newfield

3:11 PM, Feb 04, 2008

i was better than adam jones could ever wish to be

Posted by Me

3:13 PM, Feb 04, 2008

I see what you're saying but Wilkerson has only missed a significant amount of games the last two years. Worrying yes, but it's not a given he'll go out 25 to 50 games. Both Guillen and Vidro had more extensive injury problems before coming to the M's and were ok.

His slugging has been .429 vs. LHP the last 3 years and .426 vs. RHP the last 3 years. OPS is .780 vs. LHP vs. .749 vs RHP. Not too bad, though not ideal.

Posted by Glen

3:17 PM, Feb 04, 2008

nb,

Wasn't trying to catch you on that one, and the only reason I remember is because someone was saying his splits are backwards compared to what you would typically think.

Posted by NB

3:18 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Me-

I hope you're right man.

Here's to a .260/.370./.470 line in 145 games.

Cheers.

Posted by Zach C

3:22 PM, Feb 04, 2008

I think you guys are forgetting something...

do you remember when this talk first started? It was Jones, Clement, and Morrow at least and maybe Wlad. Are you kidding? considering that, the kids we put into the trade is actuall not that bad at all. Imagine if Bavasi went along with that...quit crying about 3 prospects who we wouldn't see for another 4 seasons.

It is also odd to me how some people bash the FO and Morrow for being a stetup guy (in his first and second years as a pro), but then cry about seeing sherrill go, get a grip...

ruined his development my ass

Posted by tallahassee-mariner's fan

3:22 PM, Feb 04, 2008

I’ve heard Griffey’s name tossed around a few times in this thread, and I was wondering if Geoff or anyone so inclined could give some explanation. Are there serious talks about acquiring Griffey this off-season, or is this just a pipe-dream?

PS Looking forward to the trade being announced any time now.

Posted by Mike

3:30 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Zach--I don't understand your point. Sherrill is good at what he does now and we'll miss that some.

Morrow is about using a high draft pick as a set-up guy. You can get what Morrow gives you as a set-up guy later in the draft or cheaply on the market. Not letting him learn to pitch as a starter and learn a new pitch or two retards his development. It is a terrible waste of talent and a draft pick.

Posted by Frankie

3:36 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Doesn't Bedard have to pass a physical also before the trade is official??

Posted by Adam

3:38 PM, Feb 04, 2008

It is also odd to me how some people bash the FO and Morrow for being a stetup guy (in his first and second years as a pro), but then cry about seeing sherrill go, get a grip...

ruined his development my ass

Uh, actually the two points are perfectly harmonious.

Because Sherrill is being traded, it's even less likely that Morrow will ever get a chance to develop as a starter.

Pop Quiz: Name me three starting pitchers who had successful (define as you wish) careers in the major leagues without starting less than 3 games as a professional.

Morrow has one pitch - a high-velocity fastball that he can't control. He doesn't have a developed slider, change, or splitter. He's never faced a lineup two times. He's never thrown more than about 40 pitches in a game.

The longer he stays in the bullpen, the farther he gets from ever pitching as a starter.

Posted by Zach C

3:40 PM, Feb 04, 2008

DO YOU REALIZE HE WAS IN COLLEGE 2 YEARS AGO?

Posted by Glen

3:42 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Bottom line is that this trade is going to happen. There is nothing that we, as fans, can do to affect this trade either way. I just wish that those of you that are arguing about anything to anyone just to be negative would just turn in your Mariners gear or hop on the bandwagon.

Posted by Mike

3:48 PM, Feb 04, 2008

"DO YOU REALIZE HE WAS IN COLLEGE 2 YEARS AGO?"

Yes. Last year was a wasted year in his development. As Adam says, he needs to develop additional pitches and find some control over his fastball if he ever wants to be effective as a starter. He especially needs to do this since starters don't throw all out like relievers do and therefore he'll lose a couple of MPH off of his fastball.

Posted by Faceplant

3:49 PM, Feb 04, 2008

"And he's not the first person I've heard call Jones a five-tool hall of fame talent. I heard the same outcry when we traded away the last five-tool Hall of Fame talent, Jose Cruz Jr.

He's good. But let's be real."


If you were just responding to him, then that's fine. I'm just saying that I haven't heard anyone that knows what they are talking about claim that Jones was the next Griffey.


NB,


"Hey Adam and Faceplant disagreeing! I thought you two were supposed to be the same person?"


I like to play my own devils advocate. LOL!


"Ahhhhhh I miss Cubby."


I don't.


"Adam Jones was never our starter so you can't say that you are losing offense and defense in Jones, mainly because you never had the offense and defense in Jones."


Argh.. This idea that Jones is some complete unknown is just ridiculous. You can make a reasonable projection for what Jones production would be.


bhamhuskey,


"I SAY
For every David Ortiz I can show you 200 awesome prospects that were busts."


Okay, well I would love to see this list then.


"Knock Wilkerson all you want but just remember that everyone knocked Guillen before last year and I think we all know what he did..."


No they didn't. Most people I know viewed Guillens signing as one of the better moves last offseason. They viewed it as a low risk, high upside signing.

Posted by NB

3:54 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Faceplant,

Oh God neither do I. Did I really say that?

Stupid Super Bowl hangover.

Posted by Alaskan

3:57 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Zach C,
"DO YOU REALIZE HE WAS IN COLLEGE 2 YEARS AGO?"

Let me just say first off that the all-caps really helps the argument. Secondly, yes, everyone knows this. I'm not sure what your point is, but here's what I think when I hear that:

So far, he's spent a year doing relief. That's one less year he will be an effective starter. If it happens again, that's another year. He's 23 now, will turn 24 mid-season, so he still has time before age is an issue, but meanwhile we're losing time when he is under team control. His development isn't being ruined (in my mind) so much as it is being delayed, and that seems like a waste to me.
If he stays with the M's 6 years, and it takes one year in Tacoma to work out his starting repertoire, would you rather have 4 as a starter and 1 as a reliever, or 3 as a starter and 2 as a reliever? I would choose the former.
Sherrill was never going to be a starter. But his value as a reliever was sky-high, as one of the best lefties at a cheap price. So Sherrill and Morrow don't have anything to do with one another.

Glen,
"I just wish that those of you that are arguing about anything to anyone just to be negative would just turn in your Mariners gear or hop on the bandwagon."
It sounds like you're taking this a little personally. I'll root for them my way, you root for them yours, okay? My way starts when the season starts, and my rooting for the M's doesn't include rooting for every mistake Bavasi makes.

Posted by Zach C

3:59 PM, Feb 04, 2008

yes I understand that there are things he "needs" to do to become a starter. I also understand that he is gonna be learning a hellofa lot more from people like jj, felix, bedard, mel, norm, facing ML talent in key situations, and just being up here rather than AAA...

there is time for all of the stuff you want, there isn't a spot for him in the rotation now, plus no one to fill his role (until we're sure about Lowe).

Posted by Alaskan

4:06 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Okay, well I guess we're not going to agree on this. Someone who's being called on as the 8th inning setup guy is not going to be testing any new pitches. He will have his wild fastball, period. And he already spent an entire year doing the things you mentioned. How much time does he spend with Felix & Bedard? And how much more do you JJ could tell him that he didn't last year? That leaves Norm & Mel. I'm sure they're great, but AAA has coaches, too. And down there, they can help him work on a changeup, rather than telling him to throw inside (which he can't control).

Posted by Mike

4:12 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Zach--Most baseball people would disagree with you about this. He's not going to learn from other guys but rather by doing. Only he can try to get out of a jam the second time through a lineup without having to resort to just throwing gas. That is going to take time and some failure.

I see your point that facing major league hitters is helpful but the situation is everything.

Now he can come in with one on and out in the eighth, walk the first guy, strikeout the next, walk the next guy and fan the last and call it a successful outing after 20 high octane, all-out pitches. That won't cut it as a starter.

Posted by Zach C

4:26 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Look, hes not gonna go down to AAA and magically learn how to pitch in 1 season against bad hitting. If you want him to learn how to be a SP it's gonna take a lot longer... what makes you guys think he cant use his split, and slider or even a changeup this year as a setup pitcher? does that not translate into developing and refining pitches. Unless ur name is santana, a young pitcher's success doesn't hinge on his changeup.

Posted by Alaskan

4:39 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Zach,
My point is that he's not going to be ironing out new pitches in high-leverage situations. He's going to use what he knows, not tinker with pitches he's just learning. And he won't be trying these on his off days, because a reliever needs to keep himself fresh for whenever he may be called on next.

Whatever his other pitches are, you can't be an SP with one, right? So changeup or not, he needs an opportunity to work some things out. The quality of the hitting isn't nearly the issue that you seem to think. As I'm sure you've noticed, EVERY starting pitcher learns his pitches against "bad hitting". Starting pitchers do not walk on to major league teams, nor do they come directly out of the bullpen.

Posted by kevin_ess

8:52 PM, Feb 04, 2008

Sorry for the off-topic, but if any of you were a part of the SportSpot Mariners forum, we've taken over the new forum at www.MarinerCentral.com.

Check it out! Lord knows we do a lot of quoting Geoff's brilliant blog.

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