Good analysis. The anxiety of many of us is that Bavasi will foolishly dump off up-and-coming talent for journeymen who will not improve the team---thus weakening the team both in the short and long term. He has done it before. Thus there is an impulse to keep a core group of players but to add two or three players annually from the farm system, not risking trades or free-agent signings which do not work out. With a savvier general manager, the anxiety might not exist. But, with this one, it does.

"Balentien is not a 6/6 Fielder. You're selected scouting report sucks."-Ca

Here's what scouts stated in Baseball America's prospect handbook...."He has a plus arm" "He makes good reads and gets a nice jump on defense."

So Ca, would you rate a defender you obviously never seen field, a "5" as major league average? It's hard for me to believe major league average outfielders have plus arms and make great reads and jumps to balls.

Thanks and have a nice day.

One of the things I like about this blog is that people take the same set of facts and come up with very different takes. It was certainly not my intent to let Bavasi off the hook by wanting to use this as a rebuilding year. Interesting idea.

I completely agree with Geoff's idea that a team with this payroll should be in the hunt nearly every season. But I also agree with Fred's take on Bavasi's skills.

I guess part of it comes down to that glass half empty or half full debate that Merrill and I keep having. If you think the team underachieved last year or is just a pitcher away, then the idea of rebuilding must seem silly. If you think they overachieved last year, or that they have a bunch of problems, the idea of seriously competing this year must seem silly.

There's no way to objectively know which is right, and there's no way to even subjectively know it until next season.

Your analysis is spot on. If some of our fa's have performed like their agents said they would (or are capable of) we would be reloading for yet another run at not only the post season, but fulfill our quest for the ring. We have sort of followed the Yankee model in buying expensive talent and supplementing it with kids from the farm. But while we have not dove into the deep end of long term contracts at upper end prices, should we be suprised that our team has failed to get past mediocre? The good news is that Oakland has tossed in the towel (the ignor us tactic). The bad news is that A-rod has cancelled the Texas contract, so Tom Hicks has all sort of money he can throw at anybody half way decent. The Baltimore analogy is correct too for not using your team resources wisely. I have consistently said that we should behave like an upper echelon team and perhaps beat up the lesser moneied teams when it comes to hiring their stars away. I think it is time to put Clement on the roster as well as Wlad. Younger, better and cheaper (than the cheater in KC now). We need to focus on the skills of the team we have and what sort of team we want to run out on the field. I would venture a guess as speed and defence, hoping to overcome pitching and consistent power numbers. Earth to Richie! WAKE UP or go home. BB is not only on the hot seat, we should be electrifying it pretty soon. I think an All Star deadline is sufficent.

Geoff...there is NO free agent out there that I want Bavasi to WASTE millions on! So "if" we cant make a trade for Bedard I strongly feel that Seattle HAS to just run with Jones in RF, bring up Clement to do some platooning with C/DH & pinch hitting, heck even bring up Chen to compete with Lopez, and LaHair to platoon with Sexson.

I say all this because the FA list in 2009 is AWESOME in EVERY position, and TONS of SP & RP!

We have to see what these youngsters can bring to the MLB table. The ones that don't pan out in 2008, can be sent back down or traded. 2008 can be used as a year to get these prospects fighting for a spot in 2009. This would DEFINITELY identify ALL our holes going into next offseason. I can honestly see the M's contending in 2009. Why?

$31.5M coming off the books with Sexson/Ibanez/Vidro/Johjima. I'm sure Johjima will be resigned, but the rest are as good as gone. Ibanez "might" get a 2 year deal in the $5-6M/yr range though.

Over the past 5 years I have kept a detailed spreadsheet of EVERY Mariner contract that was signed with contract details along with signing bonus details...AND I have hyperlinks to prove the figures!

My figures had the Mariners sitting at approx $98M in player payroll in 2007. Ironically, one of the writers posted the $106M figure in the paper, and I heard others state Seattle's payroll last year was $111M. That's a bunch of crap!

You mentioned above in 2008 that the Mariners payroll will be far above the $106M already??!! Hmmm...lets see now...lets go ahead and just say the M's spent $106M in 2008 (even though it was $98M). Here's the salary that came off the books this year:

Weaver $9.5M
Reitsma $4M
Guillen $6.5M

That's a total of $20M of shed payroll. So "if" we truly spent $106M in 2007, then prior to signing Silva to $12M/year, our payroll was at $86M. You then add Silva at $12M and we're back up to $98M ($8M less than WHATEVER we spent last year). So UNLESS Seattle spends AT LEAST another $8M+, we aren't going to be above the 2007 salary threshold!

Seems to me if you want to contend, the first thing to do is stop handcuffing yourself by spending lots of money on mediocre pitchers like Carlos Silva (and dealing talented players for sub-mediocrities like Horacio Ramirez).

Just a FYI though on salaries with Weaver/Guillen/Reitsma...I listed the salaries based on memory, and I haven't opened my spreadsheet since last the last offseason signings. So I haven't updated the Silva contract yet.

But I think everyone gets my point here. I'm SO tired of the M's promising promising and promising...THEN telling fans through the media that their budget will be $92M...$95M...$98M...then $106M in 2007...just to tell fans that they are serious about spending money to be contenders?! We have heard SO MUCH crap since 2002, that we ALL are getting REALLY tired of the BS moves that Bavasi has done!

I like Bavasi, but I'm tired of him...I'm tired of Chuck Armstrong...AND I'm tired of Lincoln! I think ALL THREE should be sitting on the hotseat at this point...not just Bavasi!!!

Ichiro's contract extension gives him a $6 million increase over his 2007 salary (not counting his $5 million signing bonus).

In 2008, Miguel Batista is owed a $3.5 million salary increase under his backloaded contract.

Even using HelpFelix's figures, those salary increases push the Mariners beyond last season's budget.

Other Mariners are due smaller salary increases.

The suggestion that the Ms would "stockpile" money for the future is ludicrous. They don't operate that way. Remember when Sasaki decided to quit at the beginning of the year? Freed up millions of dollars. We expected the front office to spend it in July. Did they? Of course not. What we have now is three fairly "hot" prospects in Jones, Morrow, and Clement. Now they are worth something in trade. If we try them in the everyday lineup this year and they don't pan out, they are not only not major leaguers, but their value has decreased tremendously. Folks, the farm system is not just to develop players for the major league team. It is also useful as trade material. But I have to agree that Boovasi has screwed up so many trades that I hold my breath at the suggestion of him going to work. Its like he gets into a battle of wits, unarmed.

What Geoff is trying to say is that the Ms have been stuck in mediocrity w/a budget over a $100m. Hundreds of millions have been spent during Bavasi's reign. The result? Mediocrity. It's unbelievable. Unbelievable that somehow you manage to spend that budget and stay in mediocrity; even more unbelievable that your job performance is praised by management. This is one stupid franchise.

Go Seahawks!

Folks, the farm system is not just to develop players for the major league team. It is also useful as trade material

Yes, that's the goal ask any scouting director and they will tell you the farm's purpose is to graduate as many players to the big league club as possible. What you are describing to support is called mortgaging the future, plain and simple. Billy Beane just added two frontline top pitching prospects for a 28 year old version of Richie Sexson. Oakland and most teams that deal veterans for top prospects, usually end up looking smart.

2 years of Bedard won't make this club a contender even if he sustains the numbers from last year. All that and if Erik miraculously doesn't spend long stints on the D.L. from his mechanics.


This team should have rebuilt itself in 2004 instead of adding Ibanez, Spiezio, Aurilia, and Pokey Reese.

First, any successful future for the Mariners cannot include Bavasi. The man has shown absolutely no ability to use a high payroll to put a winning product on the field. And frankly, I wouldn't trust him to properly "rebuild" or "reload."

Second, my plan doesn't call for a complete tearing down of the ML roster. It's not even close to what the A's are doing. Would my desired version of the 2008 M's miss out on the playoffs? It's almost certain that they would. But here's the kicker, Geoff - even if the M's go get Bedard, the chances of catching the Angels aren't a heckuva lot better.

I posted this a few weeks back; even with Bedard, the Angels would still have the superior team, and a lot would have to break right for us to catch them. Given that, I'm not going to give up Jones, Clement, and whomever else for a "shot" of catching the Angels. And two years of Bedard, no matter how long it may seem, is not worth nearly as much as 15-18 years of Jones, Clement, and others. No thank you.

I do not advocate dealing our best players - Ichiro, Beltre, Putz, Felix, Jones, Betancourt. This is not a fire sale, where we deal our Dan Haren, Miguel Cabrera, or Bartolo Colon in his prime. My plan doesn't require the M's to sacrifice their best players to build an awesome farm system. Instead, it advocates cutting the fat by getting whatever value we can out of underachieving and overpaid veterans. It advocates letting the most talented group of prospects the Mariners have had in more than a decade develop.

More and more teams are recognizing the value of young talent under team control for 5 or 6 years at minimal cost, and how integral such players are as ingredients to a winning team. See Boston, New York, Anaheim, Cleveland, Arizona, Colorado, etc. Not only does the talent help the team on the field, but added payroll flexibility also helps immensely. Clearly, Bavasi and Co. haven't caught on.

Also

This is about taking one step back to take ten steps forward. Can anyone honestly say, that in 2009, an Eric Bedard heading into his contract year will be better for the long-term future of the club than the group of Adam Jones, Wlad Balentein, Jeff Clement, and Brandon Morrow, all of whom will be under club control for the next five years for a miniscule amount of money, and all of whom should be ready to contribute at the ML level? Can you say that, Geoff?

And I don't buy the argument that the M's can't tank in 2008 because the payroll is too high. This isn't about payroll. Please don't put the Mariners in the same class with the Angels, Yanks, and Sox. Yes, they all have high payrolls, but that is the end of the comparison. The fact that the Angels, Sox, and Yankees haven't rebuilt isn't because they have lots of money - it's because they are run the right way and are not afraid to mix in their best young players with established veterans. Those teams can "reload" because they have a foundation to build on. The Mariners don't know how to integrate young players into the starting lineup, nor do they know how to make prudent trades and FA moves.

Just because the Mariners spend like those three teams doesn't mean they can automatically "reload" like those teams. Competence comes into play at some point.

In sum, the M's don't have to "rebuild." They do have to "retool." They have to make some significant changes to the roster to make it competitive for the long haul. Bavasi's patch-jobs just don't do the trick. Hasn't his regime proved that?

In order to build a team that can contend on a consistent basis, the answer is not trading the farm for two years of Bedard. If we fill one hole in the rotation, three more holes open up at OF, DH/C, and perhaps SP. Whether in 2008, 2009, or beyond, the team will have to fill those holes, either with lesser talents, or with higher-priced veterans who may not be better than Jones, Clement, et al, but who will nevertheless cost a great deal more. (the M's do have a budget, you know...)

If Bedard made us the favorites in the AL West, I can at least understand the justification for putting the future in limbo by dealing for him. But, as I've said before, the Angels are better than the M's, with or without Bedard.

Why anyone would want to give up the players we'd have to trade in order to secure 2nd place in the West is beyond me.

So while I would not call the decision to let Jones, Wlad, and Clement play in 2008, while getting rid of Ibanez, Sexson, and Washburn, a "rebuilding" process, I would gladly accept the bumps and bruises that would come in 2008 with those three if it meant that the team would be more competive for 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013.

Brock, if Bloomie plays every day, he will hit .300. It's very rare for a part-time hitter to hit as well as he would if he was full-time. He has proven this in the past. The more chances he gets, the better he does.

He also brings a hustle, energy, and heart--a fire, if you will--akin to what Guillen brings. He may not be vocal, being fairly young, but he leads and inspires with his play.

I completely agree, oregongal, with your 6:19 pm comment.

I keep seeing the word "mediocre" bandied about. Here's the definition, courtesy Merriam-Webster.com: "of moderate or low quality, value, ability, or performance : ordinary, so-so"

Personally, I would judge "ordinary, so-so" as being, in terms of MLB, about .500. I think we can all agree the three years before last year were extremely mediocre. Last year was not excellent, but neither was it "mediocre."

I reiterate, "mediocre" does not mean "less than excellent." English is supposed to be your native tongue, people.

missoulamarinerfan, I think you've been very lucky with your posts. Try posting more than 3-4 times and see what it gets you. While the "Captcha" thingy is hard to read, one failed post insured, for me, that I read it very carefully from then on, triple-checked my typing, and even experimented with adding spaces when it seemed to be warranted. (Doesn't work and I advise against it.)

The thing is simply unreliable. Sometimes it works the first time, but it's usually 2-3 times before my submission is confirmed. Never more than 3, though.

Case in point: This is now my second attempt to post, although I predict it will fail because this time your observation is correct and I can't read the last three captcha letters (or is it "the last two"? I guess we'll see...).

Adam, while I tend to disagree with you on many points, I must say that you argue well and this post is compelling, as are most of the ones you make.

If the M's "tank" in 2008, here's what we can look forward to in 2009:

LF - Adam Jones, with a full year under his belt, and will be under club control for another 4-5 years.

CF - Ichiro.

RF - Wlad. Best-case scenario, he's beginning to develop into a .870-OPS guy.

3B - Beltre. The second-best 3B in the AL - get him an extension.

SS - Betancourt. Young and improving.

2B - ???????? Lopez could be gone.

1B - ???????? But we'd have a ton of cash to throw at Teixeira.

C - Johjima. If we re-sign him, which I wouldn't be against, as I'd have him platoon as C/DH with...

DH - Clement. If his defense comes along, he becomes a potentially elite player.

SP - Felix

SP - Brad Penny? We'd have money to throw at him.

SP - Brandon Morrow. He needs to stay in the minors all year. Or Bavasi should just admit he used the #5 pick in the draft on a reliever.

SP - Silva. Meh.

SP - Laffey/Lofgren. For Ibanez. Both are better than Rowland-Smith or Baek or Feierabend.

CL - Putz.

RP - Sherrill. Posted an OPS against of under .600 against righty bats last year, Geoff.

RP- Green.

RP - Lowe. Could be great if healthy.

RP - O'Flaherty. The next Sherrill.

RP - Kam Mickolio. He'll definitely be there in 2009, if not sooner.

Imagine how good that team could be if we got Penny and Teixeira, plus a competent 2B. They'd be better than the Angels, and younger as well.

And with Tillman, Aumont, Butler, Triunfel, J. Ramirez, Rob Johnson, Adam Moore, and others in the farm system, the future would be bright.

But if we get Bedard, we'd have to fill Jones' spot, Clement's, possibly Morrow's, or even Wlad's. That's a lot of FA work to fill those holes. Or, worse yet, it means trading even more prospects to fill them.

No thanks. Go with the kids and get ready for 2009.

Merrill, I always enjoy a good argument.

Re: Bloomquist - Hargrove inexplicably gave him 500 ABs over 2005-2006. His numbers:

2005: .257 BA, .289 OBP, .333 SLG
2006: .247 BA, .320 OBP, .299 SLG

On a semi-regular basis, those numbers stink.

His best OPS was last year, at a pitiful .650.

He's never hit over .277, unless you count his 33 ABs in 2002.

Willie's a 25th man at best. He hasn't done anything to deserve more PT.

"Lowering the standard Bavasi has to aspire to."

Geoff, I think you do a great job, but that line had me in fits of giggles. Seriously.

To what standard are you referring? A 25-year Mariners' fan wants to know. ;)

And I've got to agree with Adam here. If acquiring Erik Bedard, or a pitcher of similar caliber, were the one missing piece that, when acquired, would make the Mariners contenders, then sure--by all means acquire him. But the state the Mariners are in now doesn't really allow them to do that, as the talent surrendered in such a deal would create more holes than it would fill--unless, as some have suggested, you go all out and acquire both Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard by surrending a package of Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, Jose Lopez, and other pieces.

And I'm not sure that's such a great idea. But, then again, I'm not the M's front office.

Yeah, I don't have anything substantive to say, but I have to agree with Adam on this one. It's not necessarily the cost for Bedard that's the issue. It's the cost to replace the people we lose to get rid of Bedard. Not only will they not likely be as good, but they'd also be more expensive. It's not the initial price, it's the follow up prices, and all for the "possibility" of contending in 08, even though it's slim.

Also, Bavasi HAD the budget. Don't forget he just spent 11 (16?)million on Silva, still owes 14 million to Sexson, 9 on Washburn... He is working with a smaller budget for each poor decision he's made. But that's a different argument altogether.

Adam, I admit I was pretty out of the loop in 2005 and 2006 due to the Internet situation in Cambodia, where I lived.

However, my impression of Bloomquist has been of a hustle guy who gets better and better the more he hits, and who hits well in clutch situations, which Yuni also tends to do. No, he doesn't have much power, but power isn't everything. I want to point out that even 250 at-bats in one season means playing less than half the time, which still doesn't negate my belief that regular play = higher production, or at least, production consistent with ability.

I'm looking now to see if there's any stats to corroborate my contention. I'm checking his game-by-game logs, year-to-year.

Bloomquist is pretty terrible.

Geoff,

I would consider the Yankees to have rebuilt, along with the Red Sox when adding guys like Cano, Pedroia, Papelbon, Wang, etc.

You see, while the Mariners would trade those pieces of the farm system to other teams for established veterans, or for someone at another position and over pay for a free agent to fill the hole left by the traded players, the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels keep most of their young stars while never signing an albatross contract (Yankees were the exception for a few years, but now they hardly sign big free agent deals anymore.)

You think the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels would spend 48 million on Carlos Silva? Or 52 millon on Richie Sexson? Hell no. They'd spend 4 million on Brad Wilkerson who has potential to break out while they wait for their top prospect to develop. They'd spend 1 million on Josh Towers who is worse than Silva but still good and vastly cheaper while they waited for their prospects to develop. The idea isn't that we don't want to compete, it's that they should try to compete without sacrificing the future or loading up on big contracts for mediocre players.

Because let's be honest. It's not A-Rod or Manny Ramirez making 20 plus million a year that's crippling teams payrolls. It's Washburn for 38 million, Silva for 48 million, Sexson for 52 million, any closer's big money deal.

The idea is "Stars and scrubs". Spend big money on big players like Sabathia, Santana, Manny, A-Rod, Vlad Guerrero. Search the bargain heap for Jose Guillen type stop gaps. But don't trade your stars for washed up veterans and don't spend your huge money on mediocre players. Let your prospects fill those holes and let them grow into big league stars. That's how the most consistent teams win.

And I don't want Bavasi in charge of the rebuilding phase. Chris Larsen should take majority ownership of the team, Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong should be fired, and a guy like Cleveland's Chris Antonetti should be hired to run the rebuilding. We could spend 100 million and be competitive for years, with our worst years being 80 win seasons. But the Mariners franchise is run by such incompetent suits that they won't sacrifice 2 or 3 90 loss seasons to get a product that will be young and consistently good for a decade.

Having a team that will be young and competitive for years is smarter and will sell more tickets than a cheap one year fix that will be done by next year. It's mind boggling that Howie and Chuck don't realize that.

Well, so far, the numbers support my contention. (Deep analysis, Librocrat.)

For example, last year in April, Willie played in 9 games and had 13 at-bats, but in 3 games he had 0 at-bats, and in 3 more games he had 1 at-bat. He had 0 consecutive games played (GP, from here on out) with multiple at-bats. His average was .154, his OPS .445.

He played in few games (9), and even fewer consecutive games with multiple at-bats (0). His numbers stunk.

In May, his numbers were: GP: 17; AB: 23; GP w/0/1/2 AB: 7/3/2; Consecutive GP with AB: 2 (0-for-6), 3 (1-for-9); AVG: .174; OPS: .441.

He played in more games (17), but in 12 of those, he had 2 AB or less (4 AB total in those 12 GP). He had multiple AB in consecutive games twice, with the first time being 2 games and the second time 3 games. His numbers? Pretty poor. Smelly, in fact. I would argue that his 1-for-15 results in consecutive GP with multiple AB has more to do with those games being the first ones of that nature all year, and the first in two months of play. But even though it looks bad for my contention, remmber it is based on consistent playing time. Has he gotten it to this point in the season? No.

June: GP: 21; AB: 52; GP w/0, 1, and 2 AB: 5, 0, 2; Consecutive GP w/AB: 5 (8-for-18), 4 (2-for-12), 3 (6-for-10); AVG: .385 (20-for-52); OPS: .915.

Here, now, we see that my contention is corroborated, though with a small sample size, we can't yet know whether I'm full of hot air, or other, more smelly substances.

But let's take a look at it: He played in more games, but even more important than making a late-inning defensive replacement twice a week, to my contention, is getting multiple at-bats in consecutive games.

In only 7 of his 21 GP did he get 2 AB or less (5 of those with 0). He had three streaks of consecutive GP with multiple AB, of 5, 4, and 3 games. In those games, he was 16-for-40. In the other games in which he got multiple AB, he hit 4-for-12.

Coincidence? Well, let's continue...

July: GP: 13; AB: 28; GP with 0, 1, and 2 AB: 5/0/0; COnsecutive GP with multiple AB: 2 (2-for-6); AVG: .286; OPS: .654.

Here we see a precipitous drop in games played, AB, and consecutive games with multiple AB. He hit .333 in the two consecutive games in which he got 6 total AB (3 each). He had 6 other games in which he got multiple AB. In those games, he hit 6-for-22. Not great, but not terrible/Sexsonian, and I think this shows that he got enough AB to somewhat keep his stroke, which he was able to find during the month of June.

In August, however, we see his GP and AB drop even further. (What was that you said about playing the bench more, Johnny?) GP: 12; AB: 16; GP with 0/1/2 AB: 6/2/0; consecutive GP with multiple AB: 0; AVG: .188; OPS: .423.

Now he's fallen back off the playing time/production continuum cliff.

In September, we see a slight resurgence in his numbers. Does it have anything to do with playing time? Let's see:

GP: 19; AB: 41; GP with 0/1/2 AB: 3/2/5; consecutive GP with multiple AB: 4 (1-for-10; in 3 of those games he only got 2 AB, with 1 BB), 9 (8-for-25); AVG: .268; OPS: .586.

In conclusion, we see that during the months (June and September) in which Willie played about 20 games, with a lot of consecutive games with multiple at-bats, we see him hitting 25-for-75. More than acceptable, even if every one of them is a single. (In June, when he played in 2 more games than in September and had 11 more at-bats, he hit a double and 2 homers, and had 9 RBI. In September, those numbers were 0/0/1--after a two-month stretch of barely playing--25 GP, 2 consecutive GP with multiple AB, 44 AB total.)

I think the data for this one particular year shows my argument has merit. Unfortunately I can't do the same thing for 2006, '05, '04, and '03, at least not on MLB.com, because they don't have game-by-game logs on that site. I'll look around and see if I can find another place for that.

But I think I've made my point that raw results alone shouldn't be used to say how much a player sucks. Playing time is and has always been a significant factor, and it's one of many, including nagging injuries and relative emotional comfort and security.

If it was my team, I'd play Bloomie 5 days a week, spelling each of the infielders one day and one of the outfielders. Then we'd always have a guy with a well-used bat on the bench and a rested team. But that's just me.

And this, MissoulaMarinerFan, by the way, is Attempt Number Three at submitting this post, each time typing in the correct "captcha" lettas.

Wow, Geoff, I just read Sawatsky's piece. Doesn't pull any punches, does he? He's damn good. Whoever gets/has gotten trained by him is lucky. McNamee, however, is a proven liar, as well as being that nearly lowest form of "human" life, a rapist (the only things lower are child molesters serial killers, and mass murderers/genocidal maniacs). Here's the link:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3153874

So that's interesting, anyway.

Mr. X, I just want to respond to your statement of contempt for the idea of the government getting involved: While the scenario you described is one I, too, wouldn't like (bureaucracy and waste), I think there is an appropriate role for government here. MLB has an antitrust exemption, am I right? If so, then Congress can force MLB to take real steps by threatening its repeal. No bureaucracy, no money spent; just results.

I don't understand why everyone is so down on Bavasi. His main focus in coming in was to improve the farm system. By bringing in his own people from Anaheim, where they have had an very good farm system for a while, we are staring to see the improvements. I do admit the trades have been hit and miss, but we always seem to focus on the negative. All GM's make good and bad trades. The trade for Bedard makes me nervous. I don't see the value of giving up all of that talent for someone for two years. I'd rather keep what we have, develop the pitching in the system which has been greatley improved in the past few years, and see what we get. I think there is always more fan excitement when you have home grown talent. Bring in a hired gun when you are on the verge of winning the division. The Angel's are too strong for us to truly compete at this point. Let's face facts and continue to build from within. Guererro is another year older and those knees aren't getting any better, in two years we can overtake them with young talent that is here to stay for a while. In the meantime, we will have a team that has an above 500 record that is young, exciting, and something the community can begin to identiy with. We can find a fifh starter from within our system. There are always surprises coming out of spring training. I am looking forward to a good year from the Mariners.

I'm not sure Bavasi knows how to reload. Sexson? Beltre? Weaver? Ramirez? Reload? Bavasi should have been fired last year. I truly hope he will reload. The Angels reload every year with quality players like Tori Hunter, the M's reload with Carlos Silva and Carl Everett. Let's go after Jason Bay and Ian Snell in Pittsburg or maybe Bedard in Baltimore. Kazmir in Tampa? Maybe Adam Jones is overrated. Keep Morrow and trade Jones. Why not try to hire the former Twins GM. Bavasi must go if the M's miss the playoffs again this year. Give Paul Allen a call.

For everyone that thinks the M's are not close to being a playoff team....take Weaver and his 7-13 record out of the starting rotation last year, replace it with a 16 -4 starter, and you win the division...Not easy numbers, but not Cy Young stats either. Bedard was 13-5 last year...add two wins and that would have been good enough to tie...good start with Silva, now get us Bedard and we will be ready to compete with the Angles.

mariners be off better if bavasi never came here look at his trades and siging and to me that was a joke, they last maybe a year i know its its the owners has well i thought bill knew baseball make him there minor league scout but not a gm for rather have steve phills of espn then this joker.

For what it's worth, if I reload the page right before posting, my posts have always gone through (and usually not gone through if I don't do it). Might be just luck, but it's worth trying.

I don't need to see the M's win the world series, a chance in a million. I do need to see them have a winning record and finish no less than 2nd in their division year after year and hopefully, with a core of players who stay with them that I can truly call part of our home town.
Martin G.

Would free agents want the Pacific Northwest and its travel schedule over the same offer from another city?

By using the word "reload" you're implying the M's have done something positive in the prior season/s. The M's haven't come close to the playoffs in so long that until they make it, every offseason is rebuilding.

Geoff, good stuff there. I had some very interesting comments typed in, but then forgot the Captcha thing. My point was that I think the Adam crowd is inclined to like the bold move idea because of the M's annoying history of pandering to the masses of likeable but uninformed fans that still think John Olerud should be at first base (wait a minute,he might be better than Richie?). This tendency lead them to lose Lou Pinella, try to keep the 95-96 group together until most of them needed walkers, and geenrally meant little chance for a championship, but darnit a lot of fans are showing up so all must be good. This is frustrating for us and I think leads us to be attracted to the Billy Beane money ball, blow it up, sign no names (that always turn out good it seems), idea.

BTW- This is the first "blog" I have ever read regularly and I'm really enjoying it. Keep up the good work all. Geoff, no more vacations.

I'm gradually becoming more sympathetic to the views articulated (well, I might add) by Adam about the cost for obtaining a top starter being too expensive in 08. The main factors for me are the likelihood that the FA and trade markets will be much better next year, and the fact that our only real option this year requires us to do business with Peter Angelos. As a former Oriole fan, I consider him only slightly less evil than Marge Schott.

There are still two factors I think are being discounted too much by the "the kids are allright" camp though. First, people are assuming that Adam, Wlad, Clement, and Morrow are all a lock to be ML stars, and I just don't see it. One or two of them might click, but all 4? Unlikely. Jones is a great athlete, but so far he has shown me nothing. Minor league stats just don't impress me. I believe he will have a ML career, but I think his current level of development is seriously overhyped (a good time to trade a kid). I'm actually more optimistic on Wlad, but I think he's a year or two away. I think Clement is very unlikely to ever be a starting ML catcher. His career would be better served by switching to first base, which will take time. And I'd rate Morrow's chances of ever being a front of the rotation starter as slim to none. With his heat, he should have a great career as a reliever at least, but how many flamethrowing kids have we seen who couldn't make it due to lack of control or limited pitching repertoire? My point is that none of these guys are there yet. Any or all of them could fail to blossom or take much longer than M's fans can wait.

The second factor is that no matter how hot you think our position prospects are, this team will never win the Division without a dramatically improved rotation. I'm not interested in watching a team cut from the same mold as the 2000s Rangers that lose every game 10-6. I don't see any pitching prospects in our system that are anywhere near ML ready, let alone candidates for #1 or #2. Aumont? Call me in 2012. Frankly, I think the jury is still out on Felix. Given his potential and his age, I'll happily take my chances with him, but I think the view that we have all the pieces in house to build a contending rotation is naive. We will have to sign or trade for big time pitching to compete with the Angels. If not this year, then next year.

The Mariners have been rebuilding, and it started the day in 2004 when John Olerud was released and George Sherrill was recalled. Since then at least two key pieces of Bavasi's youth movement have been added, with other pieces being added, as well.

2004 - J.J. Putz, Jose Lopez, George Sherrill

2005 - Felix Hernandez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Adrian Beltre

2006 - Kenji Johjima, Mark Lowe

2007 - Brandon Morrow, Adam Jones

2008 - Jeff Clement, possibly Wladimir Balentien

...more to come. Especially, finally, young quality starters.

Also, I'd be surprised if Roger Clemans even showed up for the hearings with Congress. He'll probably beg off saying he had a prior committment to attend the Bob Hope golf tournament and couldn't back out.

And, even if he did testify he'd likely come up with some McGwirelike lame response, such as "I'm not here to talk about the 20th century".

I don't think Bavasi always knows whether the team is rebuilding, reloading or competing. Why in 2006 did he trade Moyer and get no prospects that could make a difference in the future? If the Mariners had Moyer instead of Weaver in the rotation in 2007 they might have made the playoffs.

I can't believe this blog had regressed to debating if Willie Bloomquist can bat .300 if he played a full year. Come on! Willie is a bench player, he doesn't start for a reason, he is not that good!
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I also can't believe how poorly this organization is run! Bavasi is NOT a good GM. Yet the owners continue to put their faith in the guy. What has he done? Wow, we won 88 games. Despite Bavasi's signings of Weaver and Ramirez. If we had 2 quality SPs or even one to replace those 2 we would have had a legitimate chance at the West title. Just plain pathetic!
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This leads me to believe that the ownership cares about the dollar first and fans a distant second. We had our chance togo out and get a competant GM this off season, yet we stuck with dumbass Bill!?
I and many other fans have become disenchanted with this franchise. But who knows, maybe we can compete, despite the lack of a true GM. But when that point comes, who will even give a damn?
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If Bavasi were a manager of a Doughnut shop, no one would be buying, not even the cops...

Since then at least two key pieces of Bavasi's youth movement have been added, with other pieces being added, as well.


Balentien, Sherrill, Jose Lopez, Felix Hernandez, and Adam Jones were all drafted and signed under GM Pat Gillick, not Bavasi.

Spiezio was signed with the intention of replacing Cirillo at third. Rich Aurilia was signed to replace Carlos Guillen. Pat Borders was re-acquired to replace Dan Wilson. Sexson was a veteran when signed in 2005 to replace Olerud at first.

I know I have already mentioned this but I just couldn't let this statement stand on it's own. Bavasi replaced veteran old players with veteran players. He did not rebuild with youth. He didn't allow Lopez or Betancourt start until 2006 (which is 2 years later) after Fernando Vina, Pokey Reese, Willie Bloomquist all failed in becoming starters.

Geoff, I think your argument fails because when you take into account the payroll, is it money that has been wisely spent? I've read enough of Adam's posts to feel pretty sure that as a fan he'd be willing to entertain trades, he (and many of us) just don't want Bavasi be the one to make those trades. Bavasi has not proven to be good at it.

Likewise, since you entertain the win now philosophy, ideally Bavasi should be your man. The problem is, once again, he has not shown himself to be able to cut a positive deal for the team, so do you really want him to pull the trigger on any trades to meet the win now philosophy?

You need to take that into account when you think about this.

BTW Joe I do believe that Howard Lincoln has made it clear that the first priority is for the M's to make money...I don't think they are shy about saying that...

One thing I'll add about Bavasi before I get off this blog and go back to a real life: the BEST thing Bavasi has done this offseason is NOT overpaying for Bedard. But I have little hope that as the usual desperation sets in as we get further toward spring, we will see another disastrous trade made for a sub 200 inning, severe injury risk pitcher.

BTW Donovan you should become a regular reader of Jason Churchill's prospectinsider.com site and you'll feel better about Adam Jones and also get a lot of good info about all of our prospects, how they are evaluated and projected, etc. I don't think I've read a better blog out there that talks about the minors and the whole process of developing talent.

Prospect Insider chastized and attacked those who spoke up against Bavasi, look for yourself.

So Donovan, if you want a closet Bavasi fan and a guy that quotes anonymous scouts that anybody who reads Baseball America can do, Jason Churchill is your man.

Jason Churchill is just as critical of Bavasi as any other Mariner blogger I've read. Moreso, in fact.

My advice re: ProspectInsider - read it only for the scouting reports on players. Don't read it if you want a scoop of Mariner transactions. Churchill tends to be wrong more than right.

But it's clear that most scouts are very high on Adam Jones. The fact that teams are asking for him rather than Balentien should be a clue, as well.

Resin, I never said Bavasi had a hand in bringing all of these kids into the organazation. Obviously, some were already around. But, they were kept around to remain key pieces of the rebuilding process under his tenure.

Spiezio and Aurelia were brought in for the start of the 2004 season, before any rebuilding began. When ownership insisted there was one more run left in Lou's crew, when there wasn't.

Adam, your fantasy GM scenario is interesting. When do you think the Ms pitching staff become better than the Angels?

When do the Ms get a better lineup than the Angels? As for Teixeira, I don't see the Ms outbidding the other suitors. The Yankees are going to get Giambi off the books with a buyout for 2009. The Red Sox could trade Youkillis to make room at 1B. The Mets can buyout Delgato for 2009 too.

Ok, I get you guys that want to wait a year to really "reload", but I think your missing something; NO ONE WANTS TO PLAY IN SEATTLE! The only time weve ever had "good" players is when we develop them ourselves, but they don't want to play here either so they leave. What do you think will happen with Morrow, Clement, Jones etc after 5yrs in which they finally establish themselves as "good" players? Theyre out of this cesspool and wont look back. The only way we are going to compete with the Angels is bringing in talent by overpaying (Silva, Ichiro, Sexson...) utilizing our farm system (Trading for a great pitcher like Bedard, or someone that has a great upside like Snell. I like this deal a lot, but I guess the Pirates want too much). Im tired of this revolving door. Seattle has never been able to bring in any prominent player from the FA list. I cant wait for next offseason when all of us watch every single attractive player on the market pass us up. Do you guys think the Ms have a chance in signing Teixiera, ooh maybe Sabathia, umm no. The only way that happens is if we give them a Seattle Tax (way mor than any other team throws at them). But surely you won't whine about paying too much in that situation would you.

Theres got to be a ballance between relying on the farm and getting premire tallent via trade and FAs. Yea its good if you can develope tallent on your own, but sometime teams havto go out and get someone that can produce change NOW (bedard). Dont tell me that waiting around for some kid or kids will win us a world series. It's the RedSox, Yanks, and everyone else, the difference is they get it done and everyone else doesn't. We've got the budget, I don't want to wait around, I want a 20 game winner and 2 40 hr hitters NOW.

Adam-I agree to a point except on the scouting reports. Churchill is a poor evaluator of talent, and I don't blame him for relying on anonymous scouting directors. Kei Igawa was evaluated as a frontline pitcher and Travis Blackley and Justin Thomas just a year ago according to Churchill were top prospects.

Lance-Bill Bavasi was the GM in 2004 that acquired Spiezio, Aurilia, and Pokey Reese. It's an irrefutable fact.

I'm not going to start making excuses for a terrible GM that consistently makes mistakes. The team won 88 games last year largely in part to key players acquired by the previous GM. This team would not have won 88 games without Putz and Sherrill last year, let alone without Felix Hernandez and Ichiro Suzuki. All acquired under Pat Gillick.

Adam-Jones is a 5 tool player. Most GM's prefer the athlete over pure power. And I surely wouldn't gauge a player's prospect status based on demand only. There are a lot of dumb GM's out there just look at Omar Minaya. I see Balentien as the best bat period in the farm system. I like Jones a lot, but I don't think his bat will be better than Wlad's. All that being said I'd hold on to both players.

Absolutely. We had a contender for the first time in years, last season. Why not put more pieces in place to win the pennant?

Contenders or pretenders? Mike Hargrove quit when he realized that the team could not maintain the smoke and mirrors success that they had. So before he got fired, he walked. Watching Richie strike out again and again drove him back to Cleveland (in his little red pick up truck). Do we have the new field management team in place to lead this team? I would say veteran managers and coaches should tweak some performance out of our kids, but we need to reload with youth from the minors. The All Star Game will be a year under McL. He has to deliver or we fire BB. Plain and simple. Employment is tied to performance. The good news is that we saw a lot of pitchers run through our system last year. The experience will make them better. The bad news is I am not confident in McL's use of the pen, the bench or his selection of team starters. Spring Training should answer some questions. I look forward to Fan Fest and being at the ballpark.

Resin - I disagree that Balentien has a better bat than Jones. He may not have the power Balentien does, but he's got a better all-around bat. Plus, Jones is by far the superior defensive player. Given that, Balentien will have to be a special player with the bat to be a more valuable player than Jones.

Adam-I'd like us both to find out who's the better bat with both players at the corners wearing Mariners on the front of their jerseys.

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"Employment is tied to performance."

Quinault: Where in the world did you get the impression the Mariners followed that creed? Employment is actually tied to the bottom line. Ka-ching!

My examples: If you're right, why is Boovasi still GM?
Why is McLaren still Manager? Why is Sexon still on the roster?

Resin - an "indisputable" fact of what? I already stated they were brought in to help the team win in 2004. They weren't a part of any rebuilding process. Isn't that what we're discussing? So, what's your point?

Had the team been in a rebuilding mode from the start of Bavasi's hiring they would have never been signed in the first place (Aurelia was nothing more than an emergency signing when Guillen was traded and Vizquel, who had been signed to play SS, failed his physical).

Reese simply suffered a season-ending injury. Those things happen, and can't be predicted. Besides, it was never intended for him to be the SS of the future. He was just a cheap stop-gap until Yuni was ready. He never damaged any rebuilding process that the team had now begun. For people to keep harping on the Reese signing as if it set this team back years shows a lack understanding as to what's involved in rebuilding a franchise.

"Besides, it was never intended for him to be the SS of the future. He was just a cheap stop-gap until Yuni was ready."

That would be a tough sell, since Reese was signed before Yuniesky Betancourt was.

Resin - Amen to that.

Bavasi Sucks

If you want a really good measure of Bavasi's incompetence, the Shortstop situation in 2005 is a good example. If you remember, Jose Lopez was the incumbent, and this is what happened afterward.

1/4 - Pokey Reese signed because Bavasi wanted a better defensive shortstop than Lopez. Bavasi believed that the Reese/Boone combo would be the best defensive middle infield in baseball. "With Pokey at shortstop joining Beltre, Boone, and Sexson we basically have a Gold Glover at every position in the infield. In addition, Pokey can handle the bat and runs very well. We think he's a great fit for our ballclub." - Bill Bavasi in the official press release. "This is a terrific move. I've been stumping to sign Pokey for two years now... his glove is easily worth the money the team is giving him." - Dave at USSM. Mariners waive Jolbert Cabrera to make room.

1/14 - Benji Gil signed

1/19 - Ricky Gutierrez signed.

1/25 - Ramon Santiago signed to a new contract.

1/26 - Yuniesky Betancourt signs

2/24 - Reese is "day to day" with a swollen ankle.

3/10 - Reese scratched due to "flu like symptoms"

3/13 - Reese leaves camp to attend to "personal business"

3/16 - Betancourt and Morse optioned to the minor leagues.

3/26 - Lopez optioned to the minors.

3/29 - Benji Gil is traded to the Mets.

3/28 - Pokey Reese injures his shoulder.

4/1 - Bavasi claims Wilson Valdez off waivers.
Hargrove proclaims that Pokey Reese will be the starter on opening day.

4/3 - Santiago is optioned. He lost his "competition" the last spot on the bench, primarily because he had options left and Wilson Valdez didn't.

4/3 - Reese goes to the 15-day DL.

4/4 - Wilson Valdez is named opening day starter

4/4 - Jose Lopez is injured in a minor league game. Instead of being brought back up to compete for the starting SS job after Reese's injury a few days before, he breaks a hamate bone when hit by a pitch in a minor league game.

4/6 - Ricky Gutierrez is released.

5/4 - Reese goes from 15-Day DL to 60-Day DL.

5/31 - Valdez is released, Morse is called up to replace him.

7/28 - Betancourt is called up.

So I'm counting at least 4 shortstops that were signed between the end of 2004 and the day that Betancourt was signed. Reese, Gil, Gutierrez, and Santiago. Bloomquist and Jose Lopez were also in the mix from the previous year. Those are a lot of "cheap stop-gaps" for one team.

Lance-We'll just have to agree to disagree on this topic. Just like Adam, we all support player development even if we don't share the same ideology behind it.

Mr.X.....LOL! Those are indeed irrefutable facts that going with Betancourt at short wasn't the primary Bavasi plan. We often forget how Bavasi initially signed veteran legend Omar Vizquel until he failed his physical. Or the fact Mike Morse played 55 games at shortstop in 2005 for the M's, and was called up before Betancourt was.

Another disturbing fact about Bavasi. He has a track record of trading away productive players for virtually nothing. examples: Rafael Soriano, Randy Winn, Jamie Moyer, Ben Broussard, that's just off the top of my head, maybe you all can think of more.
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Oh yeah, one of my favorite moves by BILL Trades lefty Matt Thorton to the White Sox for Joe Borchard. Borchard gets 9 abs in a Mariner uniform, then BILL releases him, Marlins pick of Borchard soon after. Just a great example of how BILL really doesn't seem to think these moves through. He should have tied a huge red bow around Matt Thorton's left arm haha...
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love to hear ya'lls stories too

Reloading is not defined by emptying your top prospects for an average player who could leave in two years. The point of this should be that Bavasi should be fired. He is horrible at talent evaluation on the big league level. I don't see the Yankees offering their top flight prspects for anyone other than Santana. Bavasi grossly overpays for talent while unloading young talent for mediocre return. Bavasi is our Heathcliff Slocumb.