Good point about how if this deal falls through, the O's are going to be hard-pressed to make significant deals as long as Angelos is around. It's almost like playing fantasy baseball and knowing one owner always likes to talk about trades, kick around all sorts of options, but never pulls the trigger. Why even bother talking?

So come on, Angelos - you ego maniacal kook - it's Tuesday and your "personal matters" should be taken care of. Let's do this thing!

http://marinerlog.blogspot.com/

Great response, Geoff. You consistenly impress me with addressing all the thoughts shared in the comments.

Oh yes, and all pro-traders are poopoo heads.

You must know something that gives you confidence to say ,"If this deal falls apart, the folks to blame will be the Baltimore Orioles and their owner." I'm no Angelos supporter, but if you know definitively right now that the O's are to blame, then you need to state why. Otherwise, this is an inflamatory and ignorant statement. If it is the O's fault, as a life-long O's fan, I will be as critical as anyone else. If, however, this deal dies because of some other reason, then you've made yourself look bad. So, what do you know, other than what you got from reading Rosenthal and Stark, neither of whom knows what's happening.

I'm only reading this because I'm a die-hard Cubs fan and I believe this deal needs to go through in order for the Cubs to get Brian Roberts.

That being said, Cubs fans heard the whole "Twins before Terry Ryan era" crap about Andy McFAIL when he took over. He's out of his era, now, further evidenced by this secretive and playing-dumb mishandling of this whole off-season. They are trying to rebuild and have mostly just gotten worse. He's a terrible front-office executive in 2008. Orioles fans like "BO" will see it soon enough. Teaming him with Peter Angelos is a definite Dream Team of futility.

Hope the deal goes down, and have enjoyed this blog for the past few days waiting...

Bavasi is actually in a decent spot. If the deal falls through and the M's revent to what they truly are - an 80-85 win team, everyone will blame Angelos and Bavasi will be given another mulligan. The cries of "if only we had Bedard we'd be in the playoffs!" will be the excuse du jour for FSN and KOMO from June-Sept. They'll win maybe 85 games, draw another 3M+ fans, make tons of money and Bavasi will get to keep his job.

"Changes are coming in the months ahead to our comment functionality that will allow us to better-control the content."

Any update on that? That would have helped yesterday's thread not be so contentious and immature in a couple places.

It's Bavasi's fault. He knows Peter Angelos is a little goofy with trades and that anything that rubs him the wrong way (like a 22 year old telling the media it's a done deal) could queer the deal.

There should have been clear instructions to Jones that as the deal was not all approved, there should be no communications with the press. If you do not talk to the press there is no story other than rumors and guesses. Show respect for the process which in the Orioles' case means having Mr. Angelos sign off before allowing anything to leak.

This deal should not have been contingent on a 22 year old in a different country without PR protection from the Mariners knowing what to say when the media contacted him. But Bavasi, or his subordinates let that happen.

From what I hear, this pitcher is great. He may give us a 2 to 3 quality starter line up. I've heard he is the best pitcher to come out of Baltimore since Mussina.

Do you think George Steinbrenner in has hay day of trading prospects for front line players, knowing any coverage would queer the deal, would send the company jet to pick up the lynchpin player and hole him pending his physical and the deal's confirmation? In a New York minute. Bavasi did not. And if this deal falls through, it will cost him his job.

With a the 4th or 5th highest payroll in the majors, the M's are playing hard ball and Bavasi does not appear up to the task.

I'm not sure I understand why Adam Jones would be at all to blame for this, rather than two front offices who have some sort of obsessive fetish about secrecy. I don't even understand it--why do they care if other people know what they are doing or thinking about? Why can't they just be honest? Bavasi's evasiveness and secrecy is the one thing that annoys me more than anything, more even than his incompetence.

Adam Jones was caught in a situation where people were making unreasonable demands on him, and he wasn't sure how to respond. Your parents tell you to be honest and tell the truth. What are you supposed to do when your employer starts telling you to lie and obfuscate?

I was reading comments on the baltimore sun blog and their fans are very upset with the the O's management and if this deal falls through they plan on not attending any games. To make things right for them they need to continue with trade.

AJ is an up-front kind of kid. In trading him you're not only losing a five-tool outfielder, but also a guy who's going to be a team leader in a few years wherever he plays. It's as clear to me as the nose on my face (not that it's that big).

Trading AJ is going to be a mistake the team will rue for years to come. He's going to give anybody Mike Cameron outfielding, hit about .280+, if not .300+, with 25+ HRs and 90+ RBIs annually. Plus he's got a cannon for an arm.

If I were to compare him to another past Mariner it would be Tino Martinez. Tino started off a bit slowly, but when he got it going, it took about a year, he was one of the best LH hitters in the game. Also, no one should underestimate the clubhouse impact he had with the '95 M's, nor his impact with the Yankees during four of their championship seasons after he was foolishly traded. Tino, above all else, was a winner!

I can easily see AJ as that kind of player, a guy who wherever he plays the team wins, and wins big. Guys like Tino, Don Baylor, and a few others don't come along often. You get one you hold on to them.

Those things said, I have an idea that I think will solve a lot of problems for the Mariners, and allow them to keep AJ and still get a potential frontline pitcher, one they can keep for awhile. I'll pass it on in my next comment. I'd love to know what the Baker blogosphere thinks of it. It's certainly doable, I believe.

No more blame game. It's all Angelos's fault! But seriously, let's all take a deep breath and let this thing play out. All's well that ends with Bedard in Seattle. And if you disagree with that opinion or worship the pythagorean win prediction gamble, below is my response to someone on the PI blog. Sorry if you've already read it:

"...the greatest rotation still loses if you can't preven't runs and can't score them."

Well, having one of the top rotations in the AL with Bedard will prevent runs. Not having 2 7.00 era's in the rotation (Weaver/Horam) will prevent runs. We didn't have trouble scoring runs last year. Our offense, while not a juggernaut, was still in the upper half of the league.

And that was with a gimpy Ibanez who changed his entire approach because he couldn't swing for power until the end of the season. It was with a young second baseman who has shown flashes of brilliance, but lost focus after his brother tragically died. It was with a perennial 40 homerun, 100 RBI guy having an aberation of a season. We can EXPECT offensive improvement, even if we lose a few hits (and HBP's) from our right fielder.

Our #1 offseason priority for the history of the franchise has been improving our starting pitching. We're finally in the position to do that, and you all worry about how good our prospects could be 3,4, & 5 years down the road ON A BAD TEAM! They have value now and can help us win now by being moved. By the time we project them to be ready, half will have washed out, one will be close to advertised, and Pat Gillick will somehow get the others on the cheap in Philly. Anyone against this trade is against winning baseball.

Who says we can't compete with Boston & NY? They've got the top 2 payrolls, we've got #5. Money is not the issue. Pitching is, and we have the chance to even the playing field with a killer rotation that would turn deadly in a playoff series.

And one last item: Pythagorean blah blah freakin blah. I'm a finance guy who was always good at math. I pay attention to statistics. But no statistic accurately predicts wins. Sure, you can look at trends, tweak your numbers, and come close--but then you have to discredit any statistical outliers. The Mariners won 88 games last year. They were an 88 win team. End of sentence. The reason we gave up so many runs was our 2 worst starters not losing, but getting blown out 2 out of 3 starts. So for the statistically inclined: 2 guys make up 40% of the rotation. If they get blown out 2/3rds of the time, then .40 x .667 = a 26.7% of the time we're getting blown out because of 2 weak links.

We're an ace away from winning, and you wanna tell me how good a 17 year old will be when our entire roster has turned and we still need pitching? Pull the trigger! Peter Angelos: please stop meddling, you're obviously getting a lot of value or this many ultra-conservative, speculating, prospect huggers wouldn't be so upset. GO MARINERS!!!

Seems about right.

Just like our plate-discipline and strategy, our rookies are expected to innately know the 'code of conduct' when trades are going down.

I am an O's fan who is fed up with this nonsense from Angelos. Do other teams have such a hard time closing deals as the O's? To kill the deal because Jone spilled the beans is ridiculous. Jones was polite, curtious, and gracious in his comments. He said it was an honor to be the center-piece of a deal for someone of Besard's stature and he looked forward to the opportunity to play every day at the major league level. Oh the horror Mr. Angelos, a player who actually looks forward to playing on your team. Better nix that trade quick!.

Well, here's my idea. It involves two trades, the first with the San Francisco Giants.

The Giants need an impact hitter, preferable who can play an infield corner spot, preferable 3B. They have yet to pick up one. It looked like they were simply going to have to re-sign their FA incumbant 3Bman, Pedro Feliz. But, he just signed with the Phillies.

Enter Adrian Beltre, A Gold Glove with an impact bat who would hit even better in the NL with all of their new band box ballparks.

To acquire said hitter the Giants may be open to trade one of the young starters. One guy already rumored in a deal to Toronto for OF Alex Rios is Tim Lincecum. Yep, Mr. Franchise may already be on the block.

So, trade Beltre, along with Tillman and another prospect, maybe even Balentien, for Lincecum. He'd also be under team control for four years.

Then who replaces Beltre? I'd look to Detroit at Brandon Inge. He wants out of Detroit now that they've acquired Miguel Cabrera. He's also a gold glove type fielder with a bat that's certainly acceptable, but too expensive for the bench. He'd be your 3Bman until Tuiasosopo or Triunfel prove ready. Unless Tui goes in that deal. I'd keep Triunfel under any circumstances.

So, your rotation is Felix, Carlos, Tim, Miguel and Jarrod, with Brandon and others waiting in the wings.

So, what does anybody think of my brainstorm? You still get a potential frontline pitcher in Tim Lincecum instead of Bedard, and you keep AJ. Beltre gets replaced by Brandon Inge.

Sound good?

I hereby promise to never make fun of Angelos again if he nixes this deal.

They told us we would get a snow day and we wound up driving to work in the rain. They told us we would get a Cy Young candidate and the 80 yr. old ambulance chaser who owns his contract took him back. Tough Tuesday in the Emerald City.

Posting to this blog today is like comforting a good friend who has had way too much to drink. You want to be supportive, but you are afraid that if you stand too close, you will get something unpleasant splattered on your shoes.

There doesn’t seem to be any real news on this issue (Flash! MLB owners and execs are egomaniacs and unprofessional!), but there is a colorful back story. For those more interested in learning something than venting your spleen, Google up Peter Angelos. Boring, he isn’t. The son of immigrants, he got rich representing labor unions in class action suits, then was picketed for refusing to pay his own employees the official Baltimore City living wage. He failed to become an elected politician, but has an amazing track record brokering all kinds of sleazy backroom deals in City Hall, the legislature in Annapolis, and DC. He has the ego and volatility of George Steinbrenner, the brashness of Ted Turner, the sensitivity of Marge Schott, and the baseball acumen of George Argyros. Despite being a small market in the shadow of AL East behemoths, Baltimore is a great baseball town, with diehard fans, a proud tradition, and a wonderful ballpark that has inspired every park built since (including Safeco). There is no baseball stadium as perfectly integrated into its surroundings as Camden Yards. Shortly after it was opened, Angelos bought the team and started dismantling things. In 15 years, he has had 8 managers and just 3 winning records. The first was the year he bought the team. The other two were 96 and 97, when the O’s lost in the ALCS. Angelos then fired manager Davey Johnson, and the team has done squat for the last 10 years. Money has never been the O’s problem. Angelos has made 100s of millions of dollars in tobacco and asbestos cases. The Orioles were never an investment or community statement for Angelos, but a public expression of his ego and a tool to facilitate his personal political agenda. He is as reviled as any current owner by his team’s fanbase.

My prediction on the current situation – with the disclaimer that I have no qualifications other than being a long time observer and loather of Peter Angelos: Peter will need two things 1) to spray his scent on the deal somehow and 2) he will want something beyond the reasonable deal that McPhail presumably brokered. Angelos doesn’t believe in fair deals. In his world, there are winners and losers. He will need to believe that he has dominated the situation. The good news for M’s fans who want the deal for Bedard? Angelos’ baseball judgment is legendarily bad. He might want the farm or he might want something that only makes sense on planet Angelos. Although I don’t condone lying for any reason, Bavasi has little choice now, other than to put a lid on things and wait and see what “The Asbestos King” comes up with. Believe me, this is business as usual in Charm City, since 1983 anyway.

Living in Baltimore and being an Orioles fan sucks right now. After ten years of Angelos as an owner, you'd think we would be used to this kind of stuff....or as the least, numb to it....but we're not. Just the mention of his name causes most Orioles fans to flinch. The sad part is, Angelos thinks he is doing the right things for the right reasons, which means there is little hope for change until he is gone. I suspect that if Andy MacPhail truly understood what he was walking into, he would have walked away. Now, he's in a situation where his credibility, both as a baseball guru and a person, is in a precarious position, and it's unlikely that he will emerge unscathed.

i really don"t care about all this BS and pointing fingerS all i care about is if the DEAL IS GOING TO GO DOWN OR NOT

In response to Donovan's comment - and so many were down on Mike Hargrove for not being able to win there, ignoring his five division titles and two World Series appearances with Cleveland. With guys like Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez, no less. Great hitters, but not easy to handle.

You're right. If nothing else, this is entertaining! It's been a while since my friends and I have exchanged so many emails during Hot Stove season. To make it absolutely clear, Angelos is a buffoon. Much like a Jerry Jones in football, or the old Steinbrenner, they can't help themselves. They want to be in the forefront, the limelight, and have the credit. Any corporation (and these are corporations) would have the CEO vet the deal, act on the recommendations of those 'in the trenches' and then go. I would assume a baseball man like McPhail did his due diligence! Anyway, I can't fault Bavasi either, he was probably trying to let the kid know what was going on. Now everyone has to backtrack and look like idiots or the baby (Angelos) will throw the toys out of the pram. Amazing.

I agree that this deal will get done. EVERYONE writing about this agrees that this deal HAS to get done. Baltimore needs to make this deal. They are obviously rebuilding (or at least should be), Seattle is offering the best package out there, and keeping Bedard for the next two seasons or even signing him long-term will not solve anything. Angelos has his own way of doing things, but I think he will realize that he'll make more money (some say that's all he cares about) in the long term if he jumps into rebuilding mode without hesitating any further. Baltimore could be in the same boat in 2018 if they don't.

Thanks for the great posts Geoff!

http://theseattlemariners.blogspot.com
Bleeding Blue and Teal

Lance, you're absolutely killing our offense by switching Beltre with Inge. And I think you're paying too much for Lincecum, but I don't know too much about that kind of thing.

Amazingly, this stall in the deal actually adds momentum to my current state of ‘squarely on the fence’ with this trade.

I see both sides, and I am excited about either outcome.

To have a legitimately competitive rotation that could win a division and look strong in a playoff series is a dream that’s a long time coming for a Mariners fan, but I'd also love to see Jones realizing his potential in left field for Seattle.

Both outcomes give me reason to be excited to go to the ball park this spring. The back and forth of this trade seems to play out both sides over and over in my head - it’s a bit maddening.

Roll the dice on a young outfield talent, or roll the dice a starter continues his recent brilliance.

Win/wins are some of the hardest choices.

I look forward to settling into Opening Day Roster arguments.

Lance - I always thought Jones+Beltre+ for Santana was a good notion, so I can't argue with your thought of Beltre for Lincecum much. Odd to see you putting Silva 2nd in your rotation though... I thought it'd be more like Felix-Tim-Miguel-Carlos, with Jarrod/Brandon fighting it out for 5th.

From the Baltimore Sun...
Any truth to this?

Quick comment on Jones

Hello again.

I've been in meetings most of the day and have an interview at 5 p.m. - not for a new job, so don't get your hopes up. But I wanted to address the rumor (because it's what I do these days) that Adam Jones has a degenerative hip condition and that's why the Erik Bedard trade hit a snag.

All I can say about the topic is that the Orioles became concerned with something related to Jones, and the fact that they wanted to bring him in for a physical before alerting Bedard's agent that a trade agreement was reached should send off signals. But we've heard nothing up to this point about his hip.

Maybe this will prove true later. We'll find out soon enough. But nobody at The Sun would go on a radio show and blurt out this kind of information without being absolutely positive (and obviously reporting it in the paper first). That's dangerous territory, especially when you're possibly impacting a young athlete's reputation and future earnings.

For the sake of Jones, I hope it's false. For the sake of the person who said it, it better be right.

Don't Blame the O's for damaged good. How is Adam Jones Hip?

Great writing Geoff...keep doing just what you're doing, and just as honestly as you've done

I agree with Alaskan. Adding Brandon Inge would almost be like adding 2007 Richie Sexson to the 2008 lineup (which we may or may not be doing as is). No offense, but that would probably make me vomit in my mouth.

I would love to have Lincecum as much as you, but I don't think any team is trading us their potential franchise pitcher in a deal that doesn't involve Jones or Morrow. The M's had their shot at him in the draft and took Morrow instead, so I think we just have to hope we got the better of the two at this point.

Geoff,

I'm reading that Jones supposedly has soem kind of degenerative hip condition and this might be why the O's backed out. What the heck is going on????

"Maybe this will prove true later. We'll find out soon enough. But nobody at The Sun would go on a radio show and blurt out this kind of information without being absolutely positive (and obviously reporting it in the paper first). That's dangerous territory, especially when you're possibly impacting a young athlete's reputation and future earnings."

ooh, nice sideways swipe at Stan Charles from the local B'more free sports paper

Santana traded to Mets!!

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/29/santana-update-sox-vs-mets/

I have seen Mr. Angelos. That being said I think if I were him I would sue for libel for the photo that is printed of him on the sports page of the PI. It is above the title-The Triggerman.

I think it is a smear campaign by the PI, or perhaps, he was caught without any makeup.

yeah, I've seen Angelos too - and if I were him I'd sue his plastic surgeon.

http://marinerlog.blogspot.com/

GEOFF~

Ok, take it easy on me for this idea....

What about the possibility that Jones might be on hold for a longshot deal with the Twinkies for Johan S???

With the deadlines being thrown out for teams to "hit us with your best shot", could Bavasi actually be using the Orioles as a cover to bring AJ back for the Twins to evaluate? Or is this really the circus act that it appears to be???

Kind of cruddy of you to go after a kid.

Nice 18-paragraph attempt at saving face, Baker. Way to alienate yourself from yet another Mariner. From what I hear, you can't get a decent interview over there to save your life.

I wonder why?

Anyone heard about a potential Jones injury holding up the trade?

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/roch/blog/2008/01/quick_comment_on_jones.html

This degenerative hip condition rumor is a joke. I mean, he's playing in the winter leagues until the trade is announced, and hasn't been on the DL. This rumor surfaces about his hip and the Orioles haven't even had him in for a physical yet! Talk about spreading rumors with no sources.

On the bright side, it looks like the Santana deal has been completed. That should finally set the bar for the value of an ace pitcher, and I think the Mariners offer for Bedard stacks up favorably with what the Mets gave up for Santana. Hopefully that'll ease Angelos' concerns about getting top offer for his pitcher.

Lance,

Interesting trade proposals but personally I don't consider Inge an "adequate" offensive replacement for Beltre. So I think the offense would take a significant hit. If the Bedard deal falls through, I would rather have the M's keep AJ and see if they can convince the Pirates to trade Ian Snell (or the left handed starter they have named Gorzelany (sp?)) for a package headed by either Clement or Morrow or Wlad.

Angelos reminds me of a guy I knew in college. We used to play Monopoly a lot (poker, too) and this guy would veto any trade he did not come up with because he just knew he was being taken advantage of. He would also back out of his own deals if his opponent would agree too quickly. Man you work out a good deal with the team's FO and this bozo turns it down because he does not want to have people second guessing him and/or laughing at him.

What about the possibility that the O's got wind of the Santana deal going down, and put the Bedard deal on hold until they saw what the Mets are giving up. I think this is entirely possible and both the O's and M's could perhaps reconsider knowing a bit more about the market.
Back to the drawing board?

This is a great deal for the Mariners, and I hope it goes through. Pitching will ALWAYS carry you farther than hitting; anyone who disagrees doesn't understand the game.

okay...now SI is reporting a Santana to the Mets deal...any chance the O's got wind of that and pulled back in hopes of getting a better deal form the Yanks or Red Sox...or had those options already been explored?

Kill the trade Bavasi! After what the Mets gave for Santana, a combo of Jones and Sherrill w/2 prospects is way too much! Rescind! Renegotiate. Angelos' prissiness is paying off. He should have pulled the trigger when he had the chance! You snooze, you lose!

Any info to report on the possible hip condition of Adam Jones holding up the deal?

GEOFF - how does the package given up by the Mets compare with the Jones/Sherrill/Tillman/[name] package? I know nothing about the names involved in the Santana deal...

Don't worry - Baker is currently checking with his sources (Shannon Drayer, Larry Stone, and Bob Hickey) and will get back to us with a 20-paragraph blog about the rumored injury shortly.

Honestly, you all have too much time on your hands. This is Geoff's job, and some would call that a lucky job to have. But the rest of you...

So now the Sun is blogging about a possible hip issue with Jones. As the world turns.

Adam Jones will probably end up being the next Marquis Grissom, not the next Willie Mays. Many of you seem to see something incredible in Jones that I do not. I think he'll be solid, but nothing out of this world like Junior was.

The M's need pitching. Bedard is an ace, who is available. They would be out of their minds not to try and get him. He would have been Cy Young, if he hadn't of gotten injured. This is an incredible oppurtunity for the Mariners.

Is Jones to blame? Yes. He should've kept his mouth shut like other players, who are traded are able to do. If the M's don't get Bedard, because of all this and Angelos, I'm going to be really disappointed.

I agree completly with your point. I am new to your blog but I think you do a great job. Thanks for all your great updates.

"This is a great deal for the Mariners, and I hope it goes through. Pitching will ALWAYS carry you farther than hitting; anyone who disagrees doesn't understand the game."

People are going to hate me for this but...

"There have been numerous studies done on the issue of whether teams should value run prevention over run scoring. Needless to say, these studies go just a bit further than sorting by ERA and counting the number of playoff squads under an arbitrarily selected number. The consensus is that, in general, a team that is strong in preventing runs will do slightly better than a team that is equally strong in scoring runs. The breakdown is accepted at about 52/48, meaning that stopping the opponent from scoring is approximately 2% more important than putting runs on the board yourself.

The problem, however, is that run prevention isn’t 100% pitching. I’ve been beating this drum for a couple of years, now, and I’ll keep beating it until people begin to realize that defense matters. An awful lot. The Detroit Tigers gloves carried them to the World Series last year. They had an average offense, an average pitching staff, and the best defense in baseball. And it got them the American League pennant.

Run prevention is probably about 52% of winning, but pitching is, at most, 80% of run prevention."

The idea that pitching is what wins championships is just a myth.

Thanks for publicly acknowledging my post in your "extended entry", Baker (which really should be labeled "extended extended extended attempt at saving face ad neauseam")

Just curious...many of your colleagues have actually communicated with Jones...how come you haven't?

The Santana deal is still contingent upon the Mets getting a long-term deal in place. SI reports they have 72 hours to do this. They also listed the 4 players that the Mets offered to the Twins along with a few words on how they think these players project out.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/01/29/Santana.traded/index.html?eref=si_mlb

Geoff, what do you have to say about the lesser talent shoved out there for Santana by the Mets? I think it's hard to claim the M's are paying market prices for Bedard. If I were Bavasi, I'd give Andy a call and tell him that we are dropping the price.

Now I remember why I never read people's comments.

Turp=Twirp

My gawd, man, if you don't want to read an articulate blog, go find some sound bites elsewhere.

scottM - I'm a die hard M fan, I enjoy getting my news from every angle. But if you call having to explain your previous comments, first with an 18-paragraph blog follow-up to yesterday's lambasting of Jones, a 22 year old kid in a foreign country on the cusp of making it to the show, then following that up with an extended entry further explaining your comments (I call it backtracking, by the way) "articulate"...

I disagree. I feel it is displaying a complete lack of journalistic integrity.

Faceplant - Couldn't agree more.

I'd also point you to VORP and WARP numbers. The top hitters are consistently more valuable than top pitchers.

"Run prevention is probably about 52% of winning, but pitching is, at most, 80% of run prevention."

Which suggests that not only is trading hitting for pitching a good deal, but trading defense for pitching is a good deal too.

If the Sanatana deal doesn't make Bavasi realize that he about to be fleeced, nothing will. Mets get Santana with spare parts (none of the four ready to contribute at major league level) we give up our starting right fielder (one of the top young players in baseball) plus our best lefty reliever (one of the best in baseball last year when teh pen carried the M's until it broke down late in the year) ---AND the Mets will NOT do the deal UNLESS they can sign Santana to a long term deal .....COME TO YOUR SENSES BILL BAVASI PULL OUT OF THE DEAL, LEAVE ANGELOS WITH EGG ON HIS FACE FOR BEING TOO GREEDY

I'm an orioles fan born and raised and I can tell you with confidence, that your credible with every comment made. I'm sure the deal was done on Sunday night and I'm sure its the Orioles that have the Mariners blowing in the wind. i'm sure Jones is healthy, its the the Orioles organization that is injured. McPhail should have resigned yesterday, the Angelos family is a joke and thats why our franchise is the laughing stock of MLB. The deal will get done, but the Mariners or any other team in baseball would be fools to deal with this pathetic franchise in the future.

Wow!
Johan Santana dealt for less AND with the Mets get a chance to turn down the deal if they can't sign him to an extension!?!?!?!?!?!?!!

Santana is a better pitcher than Bedard and he has been healthier!

Anyone who's been arguing that the M's *have* to trade one of the best prospects in baseball to get a Cy Young candidate needs to rethink what they've been saying...

If the Mets-Twins deal and the M's-Orioles deal goes through people who supported trading Jones for Bedard are gonna look like complete fools!

WOW, re: Santana deal. I'm definitely in the camp that the price should be re-negotiated, if that deal holds. Talk about setting the market.

Perhaps Angelos' delay / meddling / personal issues / whatever is a blessing in disguise.

I would be very, very impressed with Bavasi if he took one look at that Mets-Santana deal and came back to say...

"Well, looking at Mets/Twins deal, the market's just been recalibrated. The offer for Bedard is now Sherill, Tillman, and Clement. Offer is firm, final and good for 72 hours. Get offers confirmed pending physicals by 5pm PST on Friday or we walk."

Or some combo that didn't end up giving up Adam, Wlad or Tui.

Even if it turned into no deal, and the rotation boldly led the 2008 M's back to 78 - 82 wins, I'd respect Bavasi for taking this opportunity to develop minor leaguers and not get fleeced yet again.

And I should clarify one thing: I'm not saying that the M's could've gotten Santana. I'm saying that of ALL the teams in the hunt for Bedard or Santana (Yankess, Red Sox, Mets, Reds) this offseason, the M's are the ONLY ones willing to give up their top prospect (who had almost a .1000 ops in AAA as a 21 year old), the best left handed setup guy in the American league and at least one other top prospect!

The Mariner franchise is absolutely ridiculous!

Jim Dandy--Huh? Or am I just missing the sarcasm?

The Santana deal really shines new light on how much Bavasi is overpaying. The Mets get 7 years of Santana (provided they can work out a deal) and don't give up anyone near as good as Adam Jones nor do they give up one of the better situational lefties in baseball.

Why does every Bavasi trade stink of desperation?

If we were to replace Jones with Morrow or Balentien we'd still be getting a worse deal than the Mets.

I don't think anyone was blaming Jones but you Geoff Baker.

So you're saying it's a delay b/c of Angelos' health, but Roch Kubatko is saying it has to do with Jones. Which is it?

Geoff,

Any analysis to offer on the Twins taking four prospects from the mets and how those prospects match up to what the Mariners could have offered to the Twins for Santana? My uneducated review looks like we sure could have competed for Santana if we wanted to.....

Why not sign bonds for 1 year 10 million???? He would be perfect as our DH..... Vidro when then platoon at second base, DH, and first base when sexon starts the year 6 for 125... Also would be a great bat off the bench. Why is no one jumping at bonds in the American league?? He is not going t be charged with anything.... We need some power from the left side.. lets bring in Bonds in his final years...With Bonds and Bedard we win the West hands down................

As far as I'm concerned, the Santana trade puts Baltimore in a bind. If I'm Bill Bavasi, I take one look at this trade and tell Baltimore that Jones is off the table. If the arguably the best pitcher in baseball can be had for the package the NYM offered (with a 72 hour window to negotiate an extension!), then the market has changed.

Based on this, I offer Sherrill, Tillman, and Balentein for Bedard. If pressed, I throw in Butler or Mickolio. If they agree, I pull the trigger immediately.

Adam Jones and Carlos Triunfel are no longer fair game.

My understanding is that Santana had no interest in coming here.

Guys... you're totally missing the point on the Santana deal. It has NO bearring on a potential Bedard deal. Santana held all of the leverage in that deal. He didn't want to come here. He forced the Twins to deal him to either NYY, NYM or BOS. The price of the Santana deal shows exactly why the M's need to offer up their best prospect and a couple other top ones. The stud pitchers with the leverage do not want to come here. We have to find one w/o leverage and then potentially overpay to get him.

This is very similar to the Griffey trade several years ago. He held all the leverage and forced to make the M's trade with Cincinati and Cincinati only. Had we been able to offer him up to any team, the return would have been so much better than Mike Cameron and Brett Tomko. Santana forced the Twins's hand and the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets refused to offer up their best prospects because they didn't have to. If Santana didn't have the no trade clause, you can bet the Yankees would have offered up Joba Chamerlain and Hughes. The Red Sox would have offerred up Ellsbury and Lester and probably more. They felt they didn't need to.

As a side... the Yankees and Red Sox didn't need a TOR arm nearly as bad as the Mariners do either. That creates even more need to overpay.

The Mets still have to sign Santana to an extension, and isn't he looking for something around $20 mil. per season? At least the M's would get Bedard with 2 years left on his contract.


It's interesting seeing both sides of the anti-trade story. O's fans say they're giving up one of the best pitchers in baseball, still under contract, going into the prime of his career, for a guy who has never been an everyday player in the bigs, a guy who makes his living pitching to 1 or 2 batters in the games he pitches, and some guys who may never wear a major league uniform.


Meanwhile, we're giving up our starting RF who some think is the second coming of Ken Griffey, Jr., our most clutch reliever not named Putz, and 2 or 3 future starters.


If this deal doesn't go through, I would like to see the M's go after Gorzelany or Snell + Jason Bay from the Pirates (if that's an option). It would be nice if they could do that one without giving up Jones.

I'm with you BrianL. My worry is that Bavasi is going to make this deal and is willing to overpay to make it happen. Sigh.

Which suggests that not only is trading hitting for pitching a good deal, but trading defense for pitching is a good deal too.

Is this sarcasm or a complete lack of understanding of Faceplant's post?

And I agree with everyone re: the Santana trade vs. a possible Bedard trade, even if I'm not a big believer in "market prices" (which is odd since I'm a political conservative).

I'm not sure how Bavasi can justify Jones (better than Gomez by a lot), Sherrill (more valuable than Humber), Tillman (a lot like Guerra, but more polished), and Butler or Mickolio (each probably as valuable as Guerra).

Bedard has had one outstanding year. Santana has has had four or five. And yet the package Bavasi wants to give up for Bedard is much better than the package the Mets gave up for Santana.

Geoff,

I'm a Baltimorean, a journalist and an Orioles fan (but not in that order), and I have to say you're alright after that post.

Or, as Omar from the Baltimore-set series The Wire, would say: True dat.

That sign Bonds comment was a joke right? You don't sign a guy with a pending federal trial. He may play a month or two, then he's off to jail. Add the bad PR to that and its never worth it.

The only aspect of the Santana deal that Bavasi should reconsider is adding the 72 hour clause to sign an extension with Bedard. If Silva couldn't convince his buddy Santana to consider Seattle, then we were never in the game for him. Getting more years of Bedard makes this deal a good one for the O's and the M's.

And Turp, the only journalistic integrity relevant to Geoff's ostensible "scoop", related to the ethical way he stood up for his source to counter what some dismiss as, Jones's "white lie." Everything else was above board and fair game.

It's interesting, too, that we all want up-to-date-sports-news, but Jones has been faulted for being too open with the media and lacking PR skills. We, the fans, are the ones who lose out if teams hide behind the castle walls and only feed us crumbs when they decide if it benefits them.

GEOFF's newsstory and the way he broke it, reflects resourcefulness in the face of ludicrous stonewalling.

Geoff, Dr.D, and other pro-trade folks...
start getting your arguements prepared now.
Seattle's best saber-metric whiz's are about to bombard you with how right they were about Bedard not being worth Jones ++, based on this Santana trade.
Oh, for those of you who try to switch the discussion to the Haren deal, the Diamondbacks did not CREATE a HOLE on the Major league team to get the deal done.
Good Luck.

I have to agree with what someone said earlier. The only reason the Santana deal was so cheap was because it really was only a three team (pratically one team race by now). Seattle could have offered Jones/Clement/Morrow for Santana and still wouldn't have landed him, even if the Twins were on their knees begging him to go to Seattle. Seattle's biggest problem is just that, Seattle. Players don't want to play for a team with thousand miles of travel every week, etc.

Geoff,

Having recently helped my 82 year old mother after a minor procedure when she was alert and talkative, I'm really glad Peter Angelos didn't go to the warehouse yesterday when he left the hospital. Maybe a 78 year old man realized that going to the office to determine the fate of a player who is going to earn $6-8 million this year was not really a good idea, no matter how many blogger's feathers that ruffled.

The Santana haul is just more proof that Bedard isn't worth Adam Jones, and that this proposed trade is an absolute heist for the Orioles.

"Which suggests that not only is trading hitting for pitching a good deal, but trading defense for pitching is a good deal too."

Uh... No. It doesn't. It actually suggests the exact opposite.

I think Bonds' trial is in November.

""So come on, Angelos - you ego maniacal kook - it's Tuesday and your "personal matters" should be taken care of. Let's do this thing!""

I say if I was the Orioles to give me Clement and take back Butler and Micklo(sp) or forget about it..Too much uncertantly with all the young pitching comming back in the low minors..
Also, hearing that Adam Jomes comparing more to Mike Cameron then Tori Hunter so that is something to think about for wanting Clement..

It looks like what the A's got for Haren is better than what the Twinkies get for Santana. Macphail must be on his knees at Angelos' bedside begging him to sign off on the deal for Jones.

This is a slam dunk for the orioles. Adam and Faceplant, I'm with ya man...

David that would be so so SO awesome if the orioles thought Jones' upside was Cameron and wanted to swap him out with Clement.

Snees,

THE WIRE is the best thing to ever come out of Baltimore..

Geoff, do you watch THE WIRE on HBO? If not, I would suggest it.. I would love to hear your opinion on how accurately a newspaper is portrayed (This season focuses on the politics and inner workings of the Baltimore Sun)..

Please get this trade over with.. My eyes hurt from staring at my computer screen, and my blood pressure must be off the charts..

This isn't just "some guy" throwing this out there. It's Stan Charles (Uncle of actor Josh Charles), a 20 year reporter who also is the only media member to score an interview with Angelos in the last 5 years. I'm betting it's either Peter Angelos or someone close to him that is his source.

I don't quite understand how everyone claims the Met offer does not compare with the M's offer.

First of all they are giving up; outfielder Carlos Gomez, and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey . Baseball America ranks them #3, #7, #2, and #4 in the Met's organization. That's a starting CF'er and 3 very quality pitching prospects. Other than Fernando Martinez, who projects as a 1B it’s their whole freaking farm system.

Second Santana holds a no trade clause and supposedly will only play on the East Coast and on a team that has a chance to win now. Virtually limiting his possible trade partners to the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Phillies and possibly the Braves. Of those teams the other than the Met's only the Yankees and Red Sox were interested and neither offered quite the depth the Mets did.

And finally, Santanna has to sign an extension for $20 million a year. Bedard is signed for two and if he signs an extension it won't be for nearly that much.

However, I do wonder if Angelos or MacPhail got wind of this and held up the trade to see how it played out. Were they waiting to see if the offer was significantly more or if other teams would come after Beard with Santana off the Market?

""David that would be so so SO awesome if the orioles thought Jones' upside was Cameron and wanted to swap him out with Clement. ""

Actually Jeff, what I meant is if I was the Orioles I would want Jones, Clement and Tillman and the Mariners can have back Sherill, Butler, and Micklo(sp)..I jsut think a 30 year old loogy does nothing for their rebuilding efforts and 3 pichers in the low minors is just too risky of a trade for the Orioles ..Look Bedard is one of only a couple of good pieces they have ..They really got to make good with the little thjey have to offer other teams..

ok if these reports about the Mets' package are true, BB better pull the plugg...this is rediculous!

This recurring “debate” about offense vs. defense vs. pitching in a generic sense is silly and pointless. You guys who are getting indignant about how pitching is overrated are being disingenuous or are taking comments out of context. When people say that “pitching wins championships”, they aren’t saying that offense or position defense is unimportant. They aren’t saying that pitching is all you need to win. Nobody thinks that. They are saying that among very good all around teams (and presumably only very good all around teams make the playoffs), the team with the best pitching usually wins out. A pitching edge is better than any other kind of edge between teams that are close in overall ability. Why do the Yanks have no Series wins in the last 7 years, while the BoSox have two? Both have the best offensive players money can buy all up and down their rosters. The answer is pitching. The Sox have had dominant starting pitching in their two championship years (down the stretch at least) and the Yanks haven’t had it at all. Can you scrape into the playoffs with great offense and average pitching? Sometimes. Can you win it all with that combo? Unlikely. Can you win anything with great offense and lousy pitching? No way. Name one team that ever has.
To win consistently, you need to be good at all aspects of the game, but the most important single aspect is pitching, because the pitcher has more influence over the outcome of the game than any other single player on the field. This is in part because he initiates every play. It is in part because baseball inherently favors the pitcher and defense (i.e., most batters make outs), so an edge at the pitching position has more leverage than an edge at any other position. It is in part because great pitchers are more rare than great hitters. All MLB teams have great hitters at some position. Few teams have great pitchers, and great rotations top to bottom are rare indeed. Note that I’m saying that a great pitcher is more valuable than any single other player. I never said that one pitcher is worth the offensive output of an entire team. Nobody is saying that. This isn’t about offense vs. defense. It is about whether excellence in your rotation is a requisite to win it all. I say it is. If you don’t have it, you are wasting your time, and you can’t make up for it with pure offense.

The Mariners' pitching in 2007 was lousy, not average, not ok, it sucked. I would not have bet a nickel on any roster of players ever assembled playing behind that rotation. That’s why I believe that the surest way to the World Series is to assemble a dominant rotation, or at least one without glaring holes and some dominant members. To do anything other than dream, the M’s have to upgrade the rotation. We are far closer to the necessary minimum level of expertise in the offensive and defensive departments. We are nowhere near in our rotation. Given that you can’t replace the whole team, you have to prioritize. Fix the most broken parts first.

Man, I hope Mr. Jones likes the taste of crow.

Either that or the M's hired Karl Rove as a PR consultant who: Wags a hip condition decoy blurb, engineers a Santana trade with lesser prospects involved, induces Angelos into a Oxycontin induced trade accepting Wlad instead of Jones ALL while orchestrating a venezuelan bank robbery to smuggle Jones out of country back to RF in Seattle!

In some ways I hope this trade doesn't go through just so I can hear the grandiose plans by the anti-traders after the 2008 season when Seattle wins 75-80 games, is stuck in second or third in the AL West, is still developing guys in their early 20s, and vets like Beltre and Ibanez head off to greener pastures.
No established free agent in their right mind will want to touch Seattle with a 10-foot pole, and we'll be faced with the same dilemma next offseason: Trade talent or sit pat.
I don't know how to break it to you guys, but Brad Penny isn't going to sign with a team that is treading water. Neither will Teixeira, or whoever else you dream up.

Well, the Twins got what they could for Santana. Gomez and Humber are top prospects. The other two guys I'm not familiar with, so I couldn't say how much upside they have. Of course, the Twins were hamstrung because of who Santana was willing to go to (they should have taken Phillip Hughes when they could have) just like the M's were when they had to trade Griffey and were left with one club to deal with.

The Mets give up no key guy from their major league team to get the best pitcher in the game. They've already have people to replace the ones they are dealing (the 18-yo kid Martinez, and people like Mike Pelfrey). The M's are giving up two key guys, and their best pitching prospect for a guy who isn't even in the top tier among pitchers according to Jason Stark!

As I continue to say, this is a bad deal for Seattle.

Even the D-backs deal for Haren only included one real top notch prospect, the young outfielder. Everyone else has a lot of question marks about them. Guys who are either coming off bad years, or guys who had a surprsingly good year which raised their stock.

If this deal for Bedard goes down it's going to leave a couple of big holes on the Mariners 2008 roster that neither Brad Wilkerson or a list of candidates for Sherrill's job can easily fill.

Free agents almost always go where the money is. Plus, Ibanez is no big loss, and Triunfel will probably end up at third (or Beltre could sign an extension).

Nice post, Donovan.

GET BEDARD! GET A 72 HOUR CLAUSE TO SIGN AN EXTENSION!!

This trade for Bedard is a bad deal...
The Twins got nothing for Santana
And they get to sign Santana to a long term deal
Not New York's #1 pitching or position prospect...
Bedard will only be here for a year on two.
Mariners betting on a contract extention is a risk.

Only the fantasy baseball minded will draw any connection between the Santana trade and Bedard. Again, "real world" circumstances came into play, which kind of throws a wrench into all of the attempted geekery. If the Twins traded Santana to the Mets for Damion Easley and cash, it doesn't mean that we should be able to get Bedard for Miguel Cairo and less cash. Santana had leverage. The Griffey example earlier is the perfect comparison to Santana. When we traded Griffey for Cameron, Tomko, Perez, and Meyer it wasn't the best package out there. Griffey vetoed a trade to the Mets for Octavio Dotel, Roger Cedeno, and Armando Benitez.

Interesting, the Mets #1 prospect NOT included...

I was cautiously pro-trade up until hearing of this Santana trade, now it's clear that BB is getting WORKED. He needs to pull the plug or negotiate the price for Bedard down (which probably won't happen).

You people who keep posting that the Mariners should cancel this trade or ask for less based on what the Twins got are idiots. This deal will go down within 48 hours, I bet.

Geoff - good info as usual. To a few others, why so much name-calling, personal attack, invective toward anybody with whom you don't agree? It's childish, boorish and reflects poorly on you....nobody else....just you. Drop it or drop out. Good god, some of you make me nostalgic for "Cubby" from '07. At least there was just one of him.

As for the ad nauseum "should we/shouldn't we" trade Super Jones for Baht-i-more Bedard, it will either go or not go. THEN you'll really have something to bat around. As for the pro-Bedard camp, remember Angelos nixed the Aaron Sele deal in 2001 after both sides agreed to a contract. Seattle's Gillick swept in and signed Sele while the O's' GM tried to reason with Angelos. No deal is ever done with PA until the player is safely in hand.

In the meantime, take a gander at Roger "Dodger" Clemens' latest "proof-positive" that he wasn't a steroids user. His "report" is sad. Really. All this anger; all this "shock 'n awe" and he still can't show he was clean. My-oh-my.

Geoff -

I think this Santana trade justifies the "Adam Jones is too much to give up" side of our debate over the past month.

If the Mets don't have to give up Fernando Martinez in a trade for six-to-eight years of Johan Santana (the left-handed version of Pedro Martinez), why should the M's have to give up Adam Jones for two years of Erik Bedard?

It's not even close. And it makes the M's offer for Bedard look ridiculous.

Also of interest:

It would seem that the Mariners had the best offer on the table for Santana. Surely Bavasi had an even better offer than Jones-Sherill-Tillman-etc out there for Santana.

It's pretty clear to me that the only reason the M's aren't currently negotiating an extension with Santana is that the player has no interest in playing in Seattle.

Kind of frustrating.

Alls well that ends well.

The Santana deal makes the probability of this happening VERY high. :-)

Hey Geoff...been a while...

This is exactly what I feared when it was initially reported during the winter meetings that we might be trying to work a trade with the Orioles for their ace. I'm a life-long Mariners fan, but I've lived in the Baltimore area for the past 11 years, and I've seen what Angelos has done to this team and to this town! There are real die-hard fans here who live for their team, and I can tell you, to a man, not one of them can stand Angelos. He's buried this team over the past decade with his stubbornness and his ignorance. I can tell you with the utmost certainty that the fans here are already at the ready with their torches and pitch forks if Angelos mucks this deal up. He's already a hated man here, but that hatred will reach legendary proportions if he blows this for them. In fact, I hope he has bodyguards on call.

According to one of the local sources here, that's a pretty well-respected guy, this deal is already DEAD. There were initial rumors that Angelos just needed to put his stamp on the deal somehow, or that perhaps his ire over the trade being leaked by Jones to the press prompted him to "alter" the deal as compensation for the screw-up. (BS in my opinion). If I were MacPhail, I'd quit on the spot if it turns out Angelos overruled him and nixed this deal.

Again, none of this surprises me, having watched Angelos' meddlesome act over the last decade+.

I do hope the report is inaccurate, however. I think this deal would really have helped both squads accomplish their off-season goals to some degree. I know Orioles fans will revolt if this deal doesn't go down (I've heard lots of fans talking about boycotting all home games), and the Mariners organization should black-ball the Orioles if they back out of this deal due to Angelos' meddling.

I've also seen nothing to back up the claim about Jones' degenerative hip. A disturbing report from one insider suggested that the report was introduced in order to help Angelos and subsequently, MacPhail, save face for backing out of this deal, assuming that to be a valid enough reason to have nixed the trade.

Again....we're all in a "wait and see" mode. I wouldn't believe any of it, to be honest with you. Especially considering some of the misinformation I've seen peddled out here in the past.

Hide and watch....and hope Angelos steps aside and allows MacPhail to do the job he was hired to do.

The PI says about Bavasi:

"Bavasi is willing to give up talent for Bedard, but he's not willing to trade a lot of his best young talent and then pay a free agent's price in a contract extension, as the Mets are trying to do."

That is the dumbest thing I have heard all day. Bavasi wouldn't take Santana for the same trade offer as Bedard and then sign him to an extension? Santana is the # 1 pitcher is b ball and much more durable. I think the only reason the M's didn't trade for Santana is that they were not on his wish list of teams.

Geoff? Do you buy what Hickey said?

Lance, everybody knows that you can't win without good pitching, and good hitting. But the idea that pitching is more important than hitting is just false. I can understand the idea that run prevention is magnified in a short series, but pitching isn't the only aspect of run prevention.

"To win consistently, you need to be good at all aspects of the game, but the most important single aspect is pitching, because the pitcher has more influence over the outcome of the game than any other single player on the field."

Sorry to put it this way, but that just is absolutely not true.

"This is in part because he initiates every play. It is in part because baseball inherently favors the pitcher and defense (i.e., most batters make outs), so an edge at the pitching position has more leverage than an edge at any other position."

That would require you to operate under the assumption that a pitcher can control a batted bal. He can't. That's the point. Run prevention isn't all pitching. Pitching in and of itself is less importan than run prevention as a whole. And the pitcher does not have total control over run prevention.

"It is in part because great pitchers are more rare than great hitters. All MLB teams have great hitters at some position."

Again, that just is not true. Most teams have good hitters. Not every team has a great hitter.

"I never said that one pitcher is worth the offensive output of an entire team. Nobody is saying that. This isn’t about offense vs. defense. It is about whether excellence in your rotation is a requisite to win it all. I say it is. If you don’t have it, you are wasting your time, and you can’t make up for it with pure offense."

Lance, you are completely missing the point. When did this EVER become a debate about offense vs defense? The point I was making was that overall a pitcher has less of an impact on the game than a position player. A pitcher helps prevent runs. A position players also helps prevent runs, but also creates them.

I say times up! The deal is rescinded! Ruin the rep of Angelos completely. Who does this guy think he is? I have no problem keeping what clearly is a future All Star** Baltimore can keep the one good pitcher they have and go nowhere with him. Fine with us....

The hip problem on Jones is total crap. Angelos is trying to save face after outraged O's fans wanted his head for postponing the deal. This way Angelos will come off as a guy who dodged a bullet, and fans will be grateful.(hip problem or not).

I certainly hope this deal falls through. Bedard will not magically push the Mariners into the post season with all of their other issues.