The Mariners would still need some outfield solutions. Bavasi told me last month that Wladimir Balentien was a direction the team could go in at right field, but not necessarily the direction it wants to go.

Lance you read that? Bavasi prefers veteran players over using his own farm system. No twisting the facts, that's straight from Mr. Baker. This is why the M's signed Pokey Reese, they signed Carl Everett, they signed Rich Aurilia, and Jeff Weaver for $9 million for his alleged post season experience. Bavasi wants veterans stop gap players and likes to trade away major league ready prospects. It's his Modus Operani.

I like Jones, but for a TOR Pitcher it's a good deal, as long as we do not include either Morrow or god forbid Clement. I am sorry I am repeating myself, but we disparately need to keep Clement and his left handed power. One site indicated he should be moved to first base, YESSSSS! Once again I will remind all that the ball jumps out to right field and dies in left at SAFECO, so please keep this left hander.

"operandi"

I'm rooting for the least damage possible. If Bavasi only trades one top prospect away I'd be ecstatic. Not in landing Bedard, but that we only suffered losing one potential all-star every day player and not four. I'd sure rather land Ian Snell over Bedard.

Not to nitpick here, but Cameron is suspended the first 25 games of the season since it was his 2nd time failing a test. I think that kind of eliminates him as a viable free agent option.

A couple of points:

First, just because the D-Backs gave up such a large package for Haren doesn't mean it was a good deal.

Second, Arizona was in a far better position to make that deal. They are among the youngest teams in the game and have plenty of talent at the ML-level to absorb such a trade. AND, the D-Backs did win their division last year. This made them even better against their rivals. The Mariners are not in the same position. Trading three of the Seattle's best prospects would hurt the team much more than the Haren deal hurt Arizona. And Bedard isn't going to make us division favorites.

Third, I really don't think that it's right to compare Jones and Gonzalez. The fact that Jones is ML-ready, while Gonzalez is not, at the same age, is telling. Jones is by far the superior prospect.

Fourth, Geoff, your entire argument is based on the premise that market price is accurate and necessary. I disagree. Just because one team decides to give up a lot for a player doesn't mean that other teams have to give up similar amounts in their own deals. Now, I understand that McPhail will argue that the Haren deal sets the parameters for any deal involving Bedard, but that should not enter the Mariners' thinking process. The question should not be whether Bedard is worth a Haren-type package, but rather whether he is worth what the Mariners are willing to offer.

Fifth, and I've harped on this before, is Jones and whoever else the M's put in the package worth 2 years of Bedard? Any person arguing that we COULD re-sign Bedard is speaking out of conjecture. Conjecture should not play any large part in a deal of this nature. As it is, we are talking about Jones, and other quality prospects, each of whom the M's will control for 4-5 years, for TWO YEARS OF BEDARD. TWO!!

Sixth, if I were sure that Bedard made us the team to beat in the West, I might consider trading Jones. But let's face it, Bedard does not make us better than the Angels. They have gotten better, and the Mariners were not as good as their record. It's a stretch to say that Silva and Bedard will make this team as good as the Angels. Closer? Yes. But I'm not interested in giving up top prospects to merely get closer.

Seventh, think of the disaster we'll have in the OF if Jones is traded. Ibanez in LF again, with Wlad in RF. Wlad is probably better than Guillen, but he's not close to Jones. Further, his bat is farther away than Jones'. And for those of you who think Wlad's bat is better: please don't cite their numbers with Seattle last year. Just don't. The fact remains, that while our pitching will get better with Bedard, the offense and defense will get worse without Jones. And even if Bedard replicates his 2007 season, it won't be enough to offset the loss of Jones AND catch the Angels.

In sum, I really don't care if the going rate for Bedard is a prospect like Jones. It's not the right deal for Seattle on many levels. The Mariners shouldn't make the deal just because another team in completely different circumstances made a similar deal. That's a bad way to run a team.

In addition, would it really be worth giving up the farm for 2 years of Bedard? Its not just Jones, but also Clement, and Triunfel/Tui/Tillman. Im not sure that three of these high quality prospects are worth having 2 years of Bedard play here. Odds are hes going to test the free agent market in 2009. Assuming that even with Bedard next year, we still maybe not be competitive enough, then we would have a 1 year window with Bedard to get things done. It seems like we would be giving up way too much of the future for this one year window. I have a feeling we would regret this decision 2 years from now.

"Blue Jays GM Gord Ash knew at the time just how good Young was going to be. But his team, on the fringes of contention, needed a mid-season pitching aquisition and Ash took his shot."

The difference here is that many of us feel that last year was a fluke and the M's played way above their heads in 2007 and are not, in fact 'on the fringes of contention.' The Mariners are an 88 win team on the virge of 80 wins next season, not an 88 win team that needs one more piece to push them into the low ninties.

Adam Jones for Bedard would be the equivalent of trading Ken Griffey, Jr for Mark Gubicza in '88 or '89. Yeah we might have been slightly better for a couple years but the team would also be playing in Tampa Bay now.

ADAM JONES is GOOD. Keep him.

Obama in '08

I'm so tired of the Mariners. It's clear that they care 10% about winning and 90% about making money. Of course that is their right, they are a business, but I just wish that we had an owner who actually cared. Someone who has actually been to the USA would be nice.

I have a deep loathing for Howard Lincoln and all his cronies. Aside from Paul Allen, Seattle has two of the worst owners in professional sports.

If this trade goes through I can't in good faith support this team. Why should I care about a team that doesn't care about it's product? I just wish there were more educated baseball fans in Seattle so the M's couldn't pull the fleece over our eyes. You can't convince me that the M's brass actually believes it has a reasonable chance to compete next year. But they have a reasonable chance to make money, so who cares about on-field performance?

I'm a grown man and all I want to do is egg Safeco field.

I don't care who they'd have to give to pick up Bedard. I just don't like the thought of him coming to Seattle, at all.

He won't really want to be here and it'll show in his pitching. He'll be Gilmecheish in trying to protect his arm for his big payday two years from now. And, that payday won't come from Seattle. They'll try but he'll rather move on.

Being an M's fan since Day One I've seen many players come here and digress because they didn't want to play here. Gorman Thomas, Kevin Mitchell, Tony Bernazzard, Mike Timlin just to name a few. And, there've been plenty. The signs that Bedard will just be one of those are shining like neon.

Erik Bedard in a Seattle Mariners uniform won't be close to Erik Bedard in a Baltimore Orioles uniform. Or, a New York Yankees or Mets, Boston Red Sox, or Los Angeles Dodgers or Angels uni. Best not to let it happen to begin with and then have to watch guys we let go of become starts elsehwere.

Haven't we all seen this record played enough times over the years already? I certainly have!

Name one star veteran that the Mariners ever acquired in a trade that performed at the level he did with his previous club, not to mention better.

There's a fundamental flaw in your reasoning, Geoff. You are correct in stating that this is the current price for pitching. You are wrong if you think that paying the current price is a good deal.

Just because something is expensive doesn't make it valuable. It's just simple economics. Everyone assumes you need to have a big name starter, but if another player will add more value to your team, or help you win more, you shouldn't just throw him away for that big name.

Oh - and if a high-level OF prospect is the "market value" for Bedard, how come Wayne Krivsky will not put Jay Bruce in any deal?

Doesn't he understand "market value?"

Jones isnt the huge problem for me, the problem is giving up both Jones and Clement. I cant deal with that!!! Baker if you read this, address that we wouldn't just have to give up Jones, we would have to give up guys that could be really important down the road for a guy that could be leaving in just two years!!!!

Geoff -

"...the idea that Adam Jones straight-up for Bedard is a bad deal is lunacy."

Depends on where you are coming from. You and I are starting from different perspectives -- you want to win now, I want a healthy M's team down the road.

With Jones, the core of this team (Felix, Jones, Betancourt, Lopez, even Ichiro), sets up to be successful a couple of years from now (given smart personnel decisions).

The idea that this team, even with Bedard, will be successful while Bedard is here in the next couple of years... THAT is lunacy.

I don't care what you think about the value of defense, or if you have confidence in the ability of the offense as currently comprised. Both of those aspects of the team, especially without Jones, are awful. Even with Bedard, all the pitching in the world won't be able to hide those deficiencies.

Jones for Bedard is a mistake. If we already had a good team, it wouldn't be a mistake. But we don't, and it is.

I suppose I could be the loon. But I doubt it.

Also,

"(Jones for Bedard) ...That would be a steal for the Mariners given market conditions."

You're right. The current "market" for a pitcher like Bedard is huge. But that doesn't make it the right market. Doesn't make it the right decision. Doesn't make it smart.

Most of all, it doesn't make this the RIGHT TIME for a trade like this. The Mariners aren't a Bedard away from the World Series. They aren't even a Bedard away from a division title.

If you think so, you're just plain wrong.

Develop Morrow in AAA this year. KEEP Adam Jones, he is going to be a great player in a few years. Adding Bedard doesn't put us past the Angels. Bavasi is just trying to save his job. This is horrible.

http://ussmariner.com/

This deal is a massive risk. The tiny possibility that we'll be able to add enough "outfield solutions" to make the team ALMOST competitive enough to MAYBE compete for a division title this year, is not enough for me to risk Adam Jones. Or Carlos Triunfel.

These are possible perennial All-Star hitters for two years of an injury-prone star pitcher.

It's just asinine.

I loath this short-sightedness.

Geoff's post makes me hate the idea of trading Jones for Bedard even more. I am in agreement with Adam, in that the Mariners will not be close to challenging the Angels regardless of Bedard’s performance. I worry such a trade could, in fact, make the Mariners worse both in the short and long run, especially if we throw in Clement and another prospect like Triunfel, and if Bedard does not sign an extension. This is the kind of gamble Bavasi must feel he has to take in order to save his job. I see it backfiring.

Like Bavasi, Geoff’s track record in evaluating talent is spotty. Remember last summer when he practically begged Bavasi to trade Jones for a washed-up Dontrelle Willis? Thank God that didn’t happen.

By trading Jones, our lineup will look more like the woeful Giants than any team in the American League. For power, apparently we will be relying on Sexson to rebound. Is that going to happen? I think not. And we will have to count on Ibanez to not suck for most of the season as he did in 2007. Other players similar to Ibanez have fallen off a cliff at his age, and I think it’s likely that he will, too.

Then there’s the matter of replacing Jose Guillen. Signing Cameron is probably out of the question, and as Brian points out, his suspension is for 25 games, not 10. Balentien could pan out, or maybe not. Big question mark there.

If we trade Jones, and barring further trades, our lineup could be:

Ichiro
Vidro
Ibanez
Sexson
Beltre
Kenji
Wlad
Lopez
Yuni

I can’t see how Bedard adds enough to compensate for the lack of firepower.

I think Geoff is on to something here with Luke Scott. He could be a real wild card if the O's "throw" him into the deal, I say we snap it up. Scott had a fantastic year in 06 and a respectable 07. He is a lefthanded power hitter who could hit 25-30 homers for us if he plays a full year. Remember, too, Houston's park heavily favors rightys.
Here are Scott's numbers covering the last two seasons.
.
583 abs, 80 runs, 166 hits, 47 2bs, 11 3bs, 28 hrs
101 rbis, .285 ba
.
a bit like Guillen's 07 season, but better...

Geoff you do an outstanding job, but here you're just plain wrong. The current market greatly overvalues the importance of pitching. We need BOTH Jones and Bedard to have a chance at winning.

I know this goes back, but in 1965 the Chicago Cubs wanted veteran pitching so they picked up a starter from the St. Louis Cardinals. Ernie Broglio.

All they had to give up for him was a young outfielder named Lou Brock.

Funny, the Cardinals played in the 1967 and 1968 World Series, winning in '67 with Brock as their leadoff hitter.

Brolio? The Cubbies did little winning with him.

However, they turned the tables the following year. The Phillies wanted veteran starters so the Cubs sent Larry Jackson and Bob Buhl to Philadelphia for a couple of kid pitchers. Bill Hands and a Canadian named Ferguson Jenkins. Of the four guess which one has a plaque in the Hall-of-Fame.

BTW, keep this in mind, people. Media types, like managers, are always about trying to win NOW, even if it means taking dumb risks.

Because winning sells newspapers for circulation numbers and gets more people to turn in for higher ratings. For them that's what it's all about. Don't believe that ownership is the only one all about the bottom line.

Also, Geoff -

Your Bedard vs. Haren comparison doesn't hold a lot of weight with me either.

The deal makes much more sense for Arizona than it does Seattle. Arizona plays in a winnable division, and their ace, Brandon Webb, is in the prime of his career.

They are strengthening an already-strong, playoff-caliber rotation in a winnable division, in the weak National League.

You can't just make the favorable Haren vs. Bedard comparison (which you did to establish "the market for pitching"), and then just assume that's enough proof to make the Bedard deal the right move for the Mariners.

You HAVE to put the separate deals in their clearly separate contexts.

The situations are different.

Geoff - I don't buy that reasoning. If they figure they can contend without Bedard, why are they offering their #2, #3, and #4 prospects for Bedard? Even Krivsky has a line he won't cross, regardless of what the "market" says.

Of course, if Morrow is Bavasi's Jay Bruce, then there's a fundamental evaluation problem. I have NEVER read any scouting report on the M's system that had Morrow ahead of Jones.

Further, why do you argue that the M's could be a third-place team in 2010? The Mariners' prospects are further along than the A's prospects, and in 2010, the Angels' stars (Vlad, Anderson, Hunter, K-Rod, Lackey, Escobar) will not be the same players as they are today.

As for the M's, Jones, Wlad, Clement, and Morrow will each have one to two years under their belt, Felix will be in his prime, Tillman, Butler, and Aumont could be ready to contribute, Sexson, Ibanez, and Vidro will be gone, meaning the M's will have money to spend, etc. And Bedard likely won't be an M in 2010 anyway.

I've yet to see a good reason why the M's can't contend with their core young players.

You guys arn't complaining about one part of his argument so im gonna remind you.

Aquiring Bedard would set the Ms rotation for the next two years, more if Bedard is resigned sometime in those two years (plausible...very plausible). I shouldnt havto get into how good this rotation could pitch. The point is, how many teams in baseball will go into the 2009 season without any pitching need what so ever? NOT MANY! the Ms will have one of the best pens in the league plus a pretty darn good rotation, leaving about 30m to throw at a OF, 1B, and DH (if we don't resign Ibanez...I think we will). and thers a good chance that clement will be ready in two years if he's not apart of the trade (plus if we get scott we won't need any OF at all assuming that Wlad is ready). Also by the time 2010 roles around, and bedard is here or not, some of our top pitching prospects will no doubt be ready to step in. this trade gives us great pitching right now and bridges the gap until our prospects are ready to play.

Its really the same situation you guys want, there is no real chance to win this season (even tho i still have hope) with bedard, but the available talent in the offseason could very well put us over the top in 2009.

let me remind everyone that we havent had any solid pitching sense the glory of 2001 and i think its about time we fixed it, if its only for two years so be it.

let me just make one more argument:

The Al west was the worst division in the Al last year...it got worse! let me ask, who would have the best chance of winning the wildcard next year, the Ms or the second place team from any other division? I think you get my point. With a good pitching staff we could really beatup on texas and the As...more wins.

Zach C - You are delusional if you think we can get the 90+ wins it will take to win the Wild Card. That's absolutely crazy.

Here goes Bavasi again, signing Miguel Cairo. This probably cements Lopez going to Triple-A since he has options left, while the veteran stop gap takes his position opening day. This also means Cairo will pinch hit for Betancourt late in games despite Yuniesky being the superior hitter. What a joke Bill is.

Cairo isn't a bad pickup. I'd rather have him than Bloomquist.

Adam for GM! I don't like this trade at all. Not for Jones, Clement, and/or, blah blah blah. These guys are way too valuable to us now and later!

nevermind adam, you just got fired with that cairo comment!

hey we almost did it last year with much less. and don't give me that we over achieved line cuz liky you say our defence was horid and we had the walking strikout sexon wiffing the whole year, ibanez didn't come on til late and lopez really wasn't good offensivly. explain to me how the Ms couldn't pull that off if they added bedard.

and i wouldn't be surprized if they got cairo as a last resort for right field when they trade jones.

What Adam said....

Not what Geoff said...

I agree with Geoff, and I honestly don't get why everyone is in such a panic to possibly lose Jones. Yes he is a great prospect who would probably be a great value to the team for several years if he produces as we all hope he will. But even if he did, the bottom line is that a corner outfielder is probably the 3rd easiest spot to fill (after DH and 1B) with either another cheap young player (Balentein?) or a free agent (Guillen type).

An ace pitcher on the other hand just might be the hardest to find. I'm not saying Bedard is a true "Ace" yet, but he's a heck of a lot closer to it than Jones is to being an All-Star.

I think you can compare this proposed trade with the Red Sox/Marlins 2005 swap of Beckett for Hanley Ramirez (yes, Lowell was included as well as Boston's top pitching prospect, but for comparison's sake just look at the top player each side got). Beckett is now a Cy Young pitcher, and signed a now below market extension before hitting free agency. Ramirez is perhaps the best young offensive player in the entire National League. Yes, if you look at the production/salary numbers I suppose you could argue that Ramirez is more "valuable" than Beckett, but I think Boston is THRILLED they made that deal.

Best case scenario, Bedard becomes Beckett and Jones becomes Ramirez, and I think we'd all take that right? That's why I agree that this talk of Jones being more valuable than Bedard straight up is not reality. Now, throw in too many other pieces, and it makes less sense, but if it is Jones and two other 2nd tier guys (i.e. not Clement, Morrow, or Truinfel), I'd do it in a second. just my take

How about a package of Rob Johnson, Jeremy Reed, Wladimir Balentien, Tuiassappo and last year's number one pick. A very good package of ready or near ready prospects and better than what Arizona got for Haren.

All this talk about how great Adam Jones will be. Watching him with the M's the last two seasons showed me that he:

1) has an incredible arm
2) has excellent range to get to the ball
3) too often loses focus when catching/fielding the ball
4) is an undisciplined hitter with flashes of great power
5) strikes out too much
6) has great speed on the bases

In other words he's loaded with potential that may or may not deliver. It's a no brainer to go for a Jones package deal for a much more proven commodity of an ACE pitcher. This could be one of the best moves the M's ever made. The only big if with Bedard is if he will stay healthy.

Keep Morrow.
As health insurance for a Bedard/Felix/Batista/Silva/Washburn rotation, I recommend that Morrow start for Tacoma, rather than sit in the bullpen. That way, if there is an injury for one of the starting five, he will be ready to start with the M's.

Everyone thinking Adam Jones is expendable for Bedard completely ignores some important facts:

1. He's under team control through 2013.
2. During those years, he'll be paid below-market prices (unless arbitration really turns in his favor). That's important, even to a team that spends as much as the Mariners.
3. Whether he plays LF or CF, he'll be a plus defender at a premium defensive position in Safeco. The comment made above that his bat is more replaceable as a LF holds some merit, but let's not discount the importance of defense. Ibanez's defense pretty much negated the contributions he made with his bat.
4. Is two years of Bedard really better than six seasons of Adam Jones?
5. Jones is going to be very good. His minor league numbers were superior to every 2007 rookie not named Ryan Braun. Unfortunately, while Braun, Pence, Tulowitzki, Chris Young, Pedrioa, and Josh Fields got to play every day, Jones was wasted on the bench.

Adam, I'm definitely not saying give Jones away. But when you get a chance to get a stud starting pitcher in his prime for multiple years without going the free agent route, I say do it.

Look, you have AT LEAST 2 years of Bedard for relatively cheap. There's also a fine chance that he comes in and likes playing here and has success, and re-signs. That's why I brought up the Beckett trade. I'm sure Beckett's agent wasn't stupid enough to say "we will surely re-sign with Boston if you make this trade!", just as Bedard's agent won't say that now. But that doesn't mean it isn't possible, or even likely, given our pitcher's ballpark, chances of winning in a weak division, and large payroll.

I guess maybe I'd feel better about rejecting the Bedard trade if somebody could assure me that we will use whatever we save with Jones through 2013 on CC Sebathia or something, but I just don't see it. We'll never outbid the Yanks and Sox for the elite free agent starting pitching, so we should jump at the rare opportunity that it can be had in a trade.

Whether you've got money or not, you rarely get a chance to get an ace through free agency. Seems like most of these guys get locked-up by their current team, or are traded to a team, and then get signed to long-term deals. You're rolling the dice on Bedard's health, but the guy is dominant. You've got to make the deal as long as it's not too much more than "just" Jones.

For anyone who says the M's can't compete for the division title or wild card (19 games vs. Oak & Texas, who should be 2 of the worst 3 teams in the AL) with Bedard, I think you are missing the cumulative effect. Granted, the M's will have to pick someone up for RF to help the offense a bit, but LOOK at the pitching.

Replacing Weaver, Horrible Ratio Ramirez, Ryan F and some of Baek's starts with Bedard and Silva is huge:
1.) Using last year's numbers you're talking about giving up about 86 less runs in 50 more innings.
2.) Plus ballpark effect would say Bedard's numbers get better (natural grass and ballpark effect a plus for Silva, but defense not as good, call it a wash)
3.) Felix goes up against #2's instead of 1's. Heck, Batista is probably the #5. He'd be the favorite against probably 10 of 13 AL match-ups.
3.) The bullpen numbers, particularly for the long and middle relief guys should be better with all of the extra SP innings you're going to get out of this staff, and these guys are less likely to falter from fatigue down the stretch.

FYI, Mike Cameron will be suspended for the first 25 games of the '08 season, not the first 10 games...

I agree with Geoff. Bedard is worth the gamble. Adam Jones is not Ken Griffey Jr.. Not even close. Bedard would give the M's a formidable 1, 2 punch atop the rotation that all contending teams have.

Defense and pitching win championships. By acquiring Bedard, the M's put themselves in a far better position to win the AL West this year and next than they do by hanging on to a wildcard like Adam Jones. Jeff Clement has far more upside and plays a much more vital position to a team's success. I could understand not wanting to move him. Jones could be a boom or bust, but at least we know what we're getting, if we trade for Bedard.

I disagree with just about everyone on here.

We have possible Jones replacement in Balentein and maybe Mike Saunders. We have excess at catcher, with Clement, Johnson, and Adams. We can replace Morrow with Tillman, Butler, Aumont.

Two of the above for Bedard is worth a shot, as among all those guys, there's no guarantee who's going to make it, or how high their ceiling is.

Carlos Triunfel is 18 and likely will play in AA or even AAA next year. According to most sources, he's something very special. Can't replace him, so don't trade him.

Get Bedard, but please don't include Clement in the deal.
Even if Clement can't stick behind the plate, the M's are in dire need of a left-handed power bat, and Clement can fill that role at DH or 1B.
I'm dumbfounded that the house that was built for Griffey and left-handed power has been here, what 8 years now, and can anyone name me which left-handed batter has the most home runs at Safeco field? Ibanez has 42, and that might be the most. Who else, Olerud? Unbelievable!

Patrick, you contradict yourself with the defense and pitching win championships. The reason we are so high on Jones is his defensive improvement. Picture us trading away Jones, etc. for Bedard. We now have an outfield of Ibanez, Ichiro, and Balentien (maybe?). The corner positions would be much weaker defensively. Jones may be a great hitter at some point, but right now he is great defensively. You've seen his speed and you may have seen his arm. The kid can play given the chance.

"...Jones could be a boom or bust."

You are flat wrong. This flies in the face of so many people who know far more about baseball than you or me, it's not even funny.

Jones will not bust. That isn't a question anymore with this player.

Rather than "boom or bust," here's a more relevant, accurate one: "We have no way of knowing whether Jones will be a perennial All-Star, or just a very good every day outfielder." That is certainly true. We don't really know that.

But to say that Jones could bust is just incorrect. At this point, he is already a good major league player (and would have shown that with consistent playing time this past season). Yes, right now -- not down the line if he gets better. Now. Ask anyone who knows anything, and they would agree.

I'm sorry, but I'm tired of people who don't know what they're talking about questioning whether Adam Jones "will ever be good." That's not the question!! Read what scouts say. Read what smart team executives have to say. Stop reading what silly, lazy beat reporters (Geoff is not included here) have to say.

Adam Jones is very good. The question is how great will he be?

Geoff,
WOW, I guess a lot of us do not agree with you, and the Mariner's FO.
I am sure you are reading other blogs as well, and I look forward to you trying to refute the multiple good disagreements / arguments in your thinking.
Yet, based on your previous blog where you said the M's were not one player away from making the play-offs, I'll bet you'll be swayed by Adam and others logic.

"...you rarely get a chance to get an ace through free agency."

This is a good point. Unfortunately for you, you're forgetting that Felix Hernandez is maybe a year or two (at most) from being that ace. As good as Bedard is, Felix is still far more talented. When he reaches that ace point, we won't need one. While it would be great to have two, Bedard will likely leave in free agency anyway. He's already stated he won't sign an extension, and is intent on testing free agency with gusto.

When Bedard leaves, we'll have a young ace, likely a great bullpen, and a young veteran middle infield. But we'll have an aging centerfielder ready to move back to right field with no replacement. Adam Jones will be in Camden Yards hitting 30+ homers and flagging down fly balls like Mike Cameron.

What will you say then?

I'm so tired of this argument, but I feel obligated to make it until this abomination of a trade decision is made.

I don't agree with this comment at all."The Reds play in the NL and figure they don't need to make a dramatic, impact pitching move to make the playoffs"
I would argue that if the Reds had Bedard they would immediately be the team to beat in the piss poor NL Central Division - Bedard would put them closer to the playoffs than he would the M's.
So here we are again - Bavasi painted into a corner with another GM and/or FA licking their chops, ready to pick his pockets. Everything he does is ass backwards. As much as I hate Guillen the whole point of letting him go was to open up a spot for AJ. And then you end up trading him?
WTF! Get rid of Broussard and then trade Clement? WTF! Trade for utility IF Hulett and then sign utility IF Cairo to go along with utility IF Bloomquist. WTF!
What an IDIOT!No long-term plan - just one annual patch job after another so he can save his job for another year.

You guys aint getting Bedard unless you include Jones, Morrow , & another top prospect. Bedard will fetch more at the trade deadline this summer anyway. No rush to deal him here. It's our idiot owner & his 2 nitwit sons again screwing things up.

You can keep Clement too, word has it he has holes in his swing & can't hit the slow stuff.... besides , the O's drafted Weiters (& actually $igned him) last year. No need for another young C here.

Geoff,
Since you mentioned Adam, the poster, let's consider his plan. One of the points Adam, who seems to have an excessive attraction for prospects, makes is the Mariners are not going to compete for the division with the Angels.

But, he never gives any timeframe on his plan when the Mariners are going to be real competitors than the Angels.

Adam's "plan" is just wishful thinking. Adam handwaves "...if we get Teixeira...".

I challenged that idea and told him that the Mariners won't outbid the other suitors. Yankees in 2009 will buyout Giambi, the Mets can buyout Delgato, and Boston can sign Teixiera then trade Youkilis if they need to. But Adam has no answers.

He speculates that Bedard won't sign extension. But Adam's plan is for Beltre to sign an extension and he fails to see any inconsistency with that.

Adam doesn't show any plausible example of a future Ms team with any type of metrics that show that the Ms will be better than the Angels. He is good at putting out subjective ideas with prospect value and defense. And complaining that the Ms won't.

Like Clemens, he hasn't really answered any hard questions. He hasn't given answers to how his plan makes the Mariner's better than the Angels.

At all.

Use of the word "IF." After and intense 10 second study of all the posts, I find the keep Adam - leave Bedard Posts have it.

The Posts in favor of getting Bedard and sending AJ use 73.4 % more "IF's."

Please lose Sexson.

Just what we needed on this team. Weak hitting backup utility guy. Either this means there will be no 4th outfielder with "sock" on the bench, or Bavasi is shopping Lopez for another 5th starter. Lopez at half speed with ADD is still better than either Cairo or Bloomquist, because he still drives in runs when others can get on base.

I wonder if anyone remembers this top prospect that we traded away for pitching:

1992 - According to one source, he was the 4th higest rated prospect in all of baseball, After Van Poppel, Salkeld, and Wil Cordero. Chipper Jones, Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, and Jim Thome were also in the top 20, behind him. Baseball America had him rated #17.

1990 - Drafted 1st round, 6th overall pick.

1991 - Was named 2nd best prospect in the California League behind Pedro Martinez.

1993 - Southern League All-Star OF

1993 - Baseball America's #1 Mariner Prospect

1993 - Named #20 prospect in all of baseball, three spots below Manny Ramirez, and in front of guys like Phil Nevin, Jeromy Burnitz, Mike Piazza, Johnny Damon, Trevor Hoffman, and Dan Wilson.

1993 - Called up at the age of 20 and played 22 games for the Mariners. In 66 at-bats, he hit .227/.257/.318. In comparison, Adam Jones (also age 20), in 74 at-bats, hit .216/.237/.311.

1994 - Pacific League All-Star OF

1994 - Hit .349/.413/.593 with 19 homers and 44 doubles in 107 minor league games. His lifetime minor league numbers were .304/.377/.488. Just as a comparison, Adam Jones' lifetime numbers are .291/.350/.476.

1994/95 - Blocked at his natural position by Tino Martinez, he struggled for playing time, and was traded.

1995 - Hit .309/.333/.491 in 21 games.

1996 - Platooned in 96, and hit .251/.311/.387 in 191 at-bats.

1996 - Traded again, hit .307/.354/.508 in 49 games.

1997 - Mostly injured.

1998 - Hit .237/.306/.323 in 93 games, and was released. Career over.

Getting one of the top young SP in the game for AJ, Clement, and Tui OR AJ, Sherrill, Truinfel is a steal... for the Mariners?? If BB is able to get Bedard while still hanging on to 2 or 3 of our top 4 prospects, then we should be rubbing his bald head and asking for three more wishes. How do you guys not see that?? No one wants to give up their top prospects, but unfortunately we need SP despirately. I keep seeing all these data this, and projections that - cut the crap! In a 5 or 7 game playoff series, or in a three game series vs the Angels, the value of a Bedard blows the value of AJ out of the proverbial water. And in case you haven't noticed, Truinfel played SINGLE A BALL last yr. He has NO POWER, and takes few walks. And don't we have a guy at SS in Yuni who is pretty damn good and one of the best clutch hitters on the team. And didn't we just sign him to a multi-yr deal! Again, if BB pulls it off for 1 or 2 of our blue chippers and a single A prospects, he has done an incredible job!

"1. He's under team control through 2013.
2. During those years, he'll be paid below-market prices (unless arbitration really turns in his favor). That's important, even to a team that spends as much as the Mariners."

1. Meet Mr. Jose Lopez. (was under club control until 2011 before signing his extension)
2. Let me introduce you to Mr. Yuniesky Betancourt. (was signed through 2008 before his extension)

Oh, and JJ Putz too. He was under club control until 2010 until he signed his contract extension (for more money, by the way). Welcome to the real world. This isn't fantasy baseball.

I know they are still assembling their roster, but the acquisition of Cairo adds another right-handed bat to the bench. The only left-handed bats on the bench now are Jeff Clement and Mike Morse. And one or both of those will probably end up in Tacoma. No left-handed pinch hitters?

I thought Safeco was built for left-handed hitters. Did Bavasi forget that?

1. Do not trade Triunfel.
2. As the saying goes, "It's not a good deal unless both teams end up feeling like they gave up too much."
3. Why would anyone choose a BMW over a Bentley if they cost the exact same? In this case the BMW is Bedard and the Bentley is Santana. Right now, we should be arguing whether Jones, Clement, and Morrow is too much for Santana. But for some reason the FO decided that it was too much. But now it's not too much for an inferior pitcher who has health problems because of one more year on his contract? Give me a break.
4. Whoever compared Jones to Griffey is out of their minds. IMO, Griffey is the best to ever play the game. Hands down.

To O's fan (7:05, 7:08) - I hope you're right, we're not getting Beddard; because we're not giving up 3 future valuables. I'd like to have another quality starting pitcher, but we need TWO quality OF's, meaning Jones in Right, Vlad in left. Ibanez moves to 1st when Sexson fades; Clement moves to DH when Vidro dittoes. Triumfel replaces Beltre when Boras ships him off in 3 years.
Oh, you think YOUR front office is terrible - you haven't been reading this post for the past year or so.
In the meantime, I think the Cairo signing is stupid - if Lopez can't hack it, promote Chen, fill in with Willie as needed. The only use for Cairo is to put some fear in Lopez. . . .

Let's not get carried away. The M's front office is nowhere near as bad as the O's FO. Seriously. It's not even close. The O's have the worst owner in all of sports and that whole organization suffers for it.

An interesting discussion. As a lifelong Os fan living in Seattle, I can tell you that the only discussion that keeps mentioning Clement comes from the Seattle boards. The Os have no need (which is rare for them) for another catcher prospect as we have the number 1 pick of the year and our top prospect Matt Wieters who will be the Os catcher for years to come and Ramon Hernandez until then. It makes no sense at all to trade for Clements. I would think Macphail will continue to hold out for Jones (need CF), Morrow (Os need immediate BP or starter help) and Triunfel (Os will need SS of the future after trading Tejada). But this may not make sense from Ms standpoint.
Bedard however is the real deal- if you think not, just go the multimedia video archive on MLB.com and just watch all of his starts in July including a 15 strikeout, two hit shutout of the Rangers-

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/multimedia/tp_archive.jsp?c_id=bal&ym=200707

Bedard broke an Orioles season record for strikeouts (even with a shortened season due to being shut down as precaution by Os)(which includes some pretty fair career pitchers, Jim Palmer, Mike Mussina, etc.)

Nice to see some fans overvaluing the M's prospects as much as the front office does. Adam Jones has already established himself as a "good major league player"? Sort of like how Kevin Maas did his first year as a Yankee regular? Yeah, read what scouts say! Because they're never wrong! That's why every single first round pick in baseball history are all all-stars!

What I am saying is we had the best-case-scenario that Jones will become - Ken Griffey Jr.
We didn't win anything.
We need pitching. Are there people on this blog who disagree with that? Are there people who think a hitter that hits 30 homers is more valuable than a pitcher who wins 18 games? If you think that, you are wrong.
If we do as some people are suggesting and hold on to Jones and Clement, etc.
We will ...
1) not contend next year.
2) still need to find a top-of-the-rotation starter to contend for 2009.
3) We will need to somehow attract that TOR starter to a team that now has not contended for four years, all while being one of the biggest spenders in the game.
4) Meanwhile, Washburn is on his last legs. Batista will be pushing 40. That means you have to find two or three more pitchers to fill those gaps.
5) MAYBE Morrow is a quality big league starter. Who knows.
6) Did I mention you still have to find a way to attract a top-of-the-rotation guy to Seattle - to a completely average team.

My point is that you guys that don't want to make the trade clearly will never want to give up blue-chip prospects for TOR starters. So what DO you propose because they aren't coming through the free agent market.

Do you really think having Adam Jones and Matt Clement will help us beat those teams with great pitching in the coming years while we continue to trot out the Silvas, Washburns and whoever else?

What is asinine, Pete, is your assertion that you can project Jones forward as a quality player (already?) with some sort of certainty. What you forget, and deny, is the crapshoot that is projection to begin with. Not a certainty, and I dont care which silly "smarter" person (who has decided its true) you quote, Jones is not there, may get there, but is not there. The list naming your projection failures is too enormous to get started on. Really, you stat guys who worship on the USSM altar really need to show your work before you call everyone else stupid. Not every argument can be confined to the narrow (yet amazingly contradictory) minded rules that you require in order to appear "right."

I agree that Jones for Bedard straight up would be a great deal for the M's, but I don't see any point in the M's wiping out their farm system for Bedard.

We aren't going to be in contention by adding Bedard, especially if we open up a huge hole in the outfield by getting rid of Jones. So what's the point?

If the question is outfield, Mike Cameron is not the answer. He´s a sensational centerfielder, but in his time with the Mariners he led the civilized world, such as it is, in strikeouts. Balentien has every chance of doing likewise,although at a vastly decreased cost, but if he fulfills some of his power potential he would be more than worth the modest freight.
All this is predicated on the Mariners acquiring Bedard, an outcome greatly to be desired because it would give them an enormously talented lefty and relieve us of the nervous disorders attendent upon watching Horacio Ramírez for another year.
Oremus.