Mariners Blog
Geoff Baker covers the Mariners for The Seattle Times. He provides daily coverage of the team throughout spring training, and during the season.
December 3, 2007 9:58 PM
"Unproductive" day rolls into night
Posted by Geoff Baker
UPDATE (10:55 p.m.): Jose Guillen just agreed to a three-year, $36-million deal with the Kansas City Royals, according to this report. He has to pass a physical exam on Tuesday. Got to hand it to Guillen. He told me all along he'd trump the three years, $30 million given to Eric Byrnes by the Diamondbacks and he apparently has.
9:58 p.m. -- Things have gotten considerably more quiet here at the Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center. I'm sure plenty of baseball folks are drinking up a storm in some of the many bars and pubs to be found if you're willing to walk through all the lobbies to get there. But others are still working in their hotel suites, winding up after what Mariners GM Bill Bavasi termed an "unproductive" day.
We were inside the team's suite with Bavasi a little while ago and questioned him for 20 minutes on what had taken place. Bavasi says he came here hoping to get in on the Johan Santana trade talks, but quickly found that his team was not a high priority for the Minnesota Twins.
Remember what we wrote last week about our source telling us the Mariners were a "second tier" competitor for Santana? Well, that's kind of how Bavasi feels right now. The meetings have been hijacked by the Santana talks, but all the real talking is being done by the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. Both those clubs have the potential to put three top prospects on the table, which the M's can't. At least, not prospects the Twins need. They don't need Jeff Clement. And Brandon Morrow has yet to prove he can start in the majors and be effective. Both the Yankees and Red Sox can trump that.
In other words, the M's didn't "get out" of the Santana derby because of the high cost. More like they've been put on a back-burner by the Twins for now.
"I wouldn't say that we're completely out of it,'' Bavasi said. "But they may have some deals they have to contemplate before ours.''
I'd say. In other words, if the Yanks, or Bosox, pull out of talks (as the Yankees threatened to do barring a Monday deal) then the M's could jump back in if the offers started to get lower. Otherwise, they've got "Plan B" which is Erik Bedard. Bavasi wouldn't say it flat out, but he's obviously interested in the O's lefty and made it pretty clear his team would be looking at him further.
As we wrote earlier, the cost could be astronomical -- at least three, possibly four top prospects.
Then again, if the "loser" in the Boston-New York Santana bidding opts to go for Dan Haren of the Oakland A's instead of Bedard (who pitches in the AL East and is unlikely to be dealt within the division) then the O's asking price could drop.
Bavasi's staffers and scouts spoke to two teams today, one of them the Milwaukee Brewers. As we mentioned, the Brew Crew needs a young catcher and some relief help. The M's need a starter and Ben Sheets is a good place to start talking.
The M's spent much of the day scheduling meetings to talk tomorrow. They have meetings with 11 other clubs. Bavasi wouldn't say whether the O's are among them but I wouldn't read a lot into that right now. As I said, everything is in a holding pattern until Santana gets done.
Same thing for free agents. Bavasi and Co. are waiting on Hiroki Kuroda's decision about which team he'll come over from Japan to join. But Kuroda, wisely, is apparently going to wait for some type of market to be set here before jumping into the fray. That means, Santana and some other pending deals have to get done first.
"There are probably some potential trades out there that are holding up the market,'' Bavasi said.
A report that the M's will go as high as four years, $44 million for Kuroda was met with skepticism and incredulity in the hallways here. Someone I talked to, who makes his living evaluating and projecting talent for major league teams and the media, said flat-out that Kuroda is a very risky proposition for an AL club and that four years is too much. Can't say whether he's right or wrong. Though plenty of folks I talk to have the same concerns that Kuroda coming here could be akin to a mid-range NL pitcher jumping to the AL. We all know how that often turns out.
I'm told the Diamondbacks are unlikely to go any higher than three years on Kuroda, so a four-year offer could very well get the deal done. I just can't confirm that the M's have made one. It sounds a bit high.
Yes, I asked Bavasi about not offering arbitration to Jose Guillen.
"We didn't like the exposure,'' he said.
By "exposure" he means strictly money. Not the steroid stuff that came out last month. Strictly the money. The M's just didn't want to have to pay Guillen the money he could get in an arbitration case in the unlikely event he opted to take a one-year deal with Seattle. So for that, they give up a Type "B" compensatory pick they would have received had he left.
For what it's worth, I highly doubt Guillen would come back for one year. He's a proud guy, has talked too long about wanting a multi-year deal and apparently has a job with the Royals if he wants one (NOTE -- read update at top of post about Guillen's new three-year, $36 million deal with Kansas City). But it's not my money being risked. Just an opinion.
For David in the comments thread of the previous post, yes, anyone can come here, wander the halls and walk right by folks like Dusty Baker, Felipe Alou and Lou Piniella. The real wheeling and dealing takes place behind closed doors, though. Plenty of folks around here trying to introduce themselves and pawn off resumes. They had a "job fair" earlier today and lots of people were doing it. The trick is to not be really annoying.
Anyway, that was the day for the Mariners. Lots of talk. We've discussed all the rumors already so I won't go into them more. But oh, wait, I did have a conversation pertaining to that potential Edwin Jackson-Ben Broussard deal between the M's and Rays. The Rays were apparently not all that hot on the idea of Broussard alone, for the reasons I've mentioned. Jackson is slotted for the Tampa rotation, while Broussard could be non-tendered. Might take more than that, but it's still early. Just a rumor and no longer a very good one at that. Everything is still in the preliminary stage, more rumor than fact, while the baseball world waits to hear where Santana is going.
Posted by Adam
11:03 PM, Dec 03, 2007
Still trying to figure how risking having Guillen around for one year at 10-12 million is a big problem.
Watch, Guillen will sign with the Royals for a multi-year deal tomorrow, and the egg will be in Bavasi's face, again.
"Unproductive," huh? I'd say Bavasi's had more than a few "unproductive" days during his career...
Posted by Patrick
11:06 PM, Dec 03, 2007
I'd say unproductive is a good way to describe it. I was getting awfully impatient as I sat at my computer this afternoon, evening, and now morning blogging about late-breaking rumors as they related to the Mariners on www.marinermojo.blogspot.com
I'm really curious to see if Richie Sexson is able to be moved after early reports described the M's as "intent" on trading him. As you pointed out on your blog, Geoff, most teams will probably just continue to laugh and shrug it off. Hopefully this Santana deal can finish up so the market can start rolling. In all of your years covering baseball do you remember any possible transaction that held up the entire league like this? I guess the fact that Santana is a once blue moon kind of pitcher coupled with the relatively shallow free agent pool would produce results like this. We'll see what's in store for tomorrow. Keep up the good work in Nashville!
Posted by Patrick
11:08 PM, Dec 03, 2007
Responding to Adam: Jose Guillen has reportedly agreed to a 3 year, 36 million dollar deal with the Royals.
Posted by Walrus
11:12 PM, Dec 03, 2007
So Guillen is not signed because of money? Money? Really? A one year contract for a proven right handed MOTO who has produced in Safeco, when the M's have NO ONE in the organization who has any experience that the M's FO / Bavasi seem to require in order play. Yes the M's have Jones...BUT...
What if Jones does hit .240 in the majors - The M's have no backup plan.
What if Ibanez gets hurt again??
The M's are letting go Broussard and Reed, and Bavasi has said repeatedly that he does not want 2 rookies playing.
Further, if we have learned nothing from the prior years of Free agency, we KNOW that the GOOD free agents will cost a lot more than $10 mil a year, and it will take a contract a lot longer than ONE YEAR to sign them.
MONEY IS NOT THE REASON, and Bavasi is again being DISHONEST with the media and fans...and worse yet, showing the rest of the league how completely idiotic AND incompetent the M's FO is.
Posted by dr
11:25 PM, Dec 03, 2007
Too bad the Santana non-trade may be holding things up since there is a very real possibility the Twins may not move him right now. 'Course, that could change overnight.
Edwin Jackson just isn't doing it for me. We don't need another inconsistent, back-of-the-rotation pitcher. We cornered the market on that commodity last year. And let's not put too much pressure on Mel Stottlemeyer to work miracles. Remember, he will have to look at HoRam each and every day....
I'd be extremely surprised if Sexson is traded. Really, who'd want his salary, even if the Ms paid the lion's share of it (and they'd have to)? No, the Ms will gamble that he won't have 2 subpar seasons in a row. I think you can pencil him in at 1st base in '08.
With Santana no longer in the "dream" scenario for the Ms, and with Bedard sounding a tad too expensive in terms of prospects, just which "horses" are left for Bavasi to saddle up? And if you tell me Jackson, you'll get b*tchslapped before that name completely leaves your lips. I see more reclamation projects for the Ms' '08 roster. That will be Bavasi's legacy. Let's watch some NCAA b'ball.
Posted by M's Fan in Anaheim
11:25 PM, Dec 03, 2007
Geoff, would you give up Jones, Morrow and Clement for Bedard? If he's a bonafide 1 or 2, the Ms may just have to pull the trigger. We really don't need another middle of the rotation guy. In some ways, I'm hoping Kuroda will sign elsewhere so Bavasi will find the urgency to sign a top pitcher, and not settle for another Batista (decent at best). I'm getting restless here in Anaheim...the Angels are making a lot of noise! I like Haren, but I bet the loser of Santana Claus will get him. We can't get outbid by the Mets and Dodgers. Go Ms!
Posted by M's Fan in Anaheim
11:26 PM, Dec 03, 2007
Geoff, would you give up Jones, Morrow and Clement for Bedard? If he's a bonafide 1 or 2, the Ms may just have to pull the trigger. We really don't need another middle of the rotation guy. In some ways, I'm hoping Kuroda will sign elsewhere so Bavasi will find the urgency to sign a top pitcher, and not settle for another Batista (decent at best). I'm getting restless here in Anaheim...the Angels are making a lot of noise! I like Haren, but I bet the loser of Santana Claus will get him. We can't get outbid by the Mets and Dodgers. Go Ms!
Posted by Merrill
3:33 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Fantabulous, Geoff. Thanks so much!
Adam, I don't understand the Guillen move, either (I shared a lot of Walrus's thoughts, although not about the dishonesty etc., I think that's way, way, way off base), but I also don't understand your comment about Bavasi apparently believing other teams wouldn't sign him to a 3-year deal. Why would it matter if they did? (and as well all know now, "they" have...)
Personally, I don't think losing a compensatory draft pick is a real big deal. What was it, a 40th-rounder? Woo baby! Picks are a years-in-waiting crap shoot.
My guess with Guillen is for whatever reason the M's didn't wanna commit to a multi-year deal and wanted to give him the chance to get one. I think, if that's the case, there's some integrity and honor in that. Maybe not good business sense. I do think Guillen proved he's worthy of a good deal, and deserved the chance at one. But it's just speculation.
I also think Morse is a good bat, and while he may not be the most experienced outfielder (I'd like to see him at first if they can dump Sexson and trade or nontender Broussard), he's a good backup plan if Jones gets moved for Bedard or Sheets. He's clutch, has proven it, and deserves a chance for a full season of at-bats. Might be a shaky defensive deal with he and Ibanez in the corners, but with Reed as a defensive late-game replacement, it may not be all that bad. And if Reed is getting his stroke back, he may not be a bad backup plan, either.
Does anyone know anything about Morse's outfield play? Any Rainier fans out there?
Ya know, Mr. X, not all "currently unemployed" folks are tax drags. I'd guess, since unemployment doesn't really pay enough to live on (and we pay for the privilege of getting it, I might add--if you don't pay in, you don't get it back), it's unlikely our intrepid Mr. David K could afford to drive to Nashville from wherever he lives and wander the surreal halls of Oprydom. He could well be a fisherman, an oilfield worker, or another such lucrative yet temporary/seasonal/contractual worker.
Just a thought.
Posted by eastcoast
3:38 AM, Dec 04, 2007
I really wish the M's would avoid overpaying for any other MOTR guys like Cliff Lee and Edwin Jackson (not even MOTR). Lee for Ibanez is a JOKE! Where exactly do you plan to replace his 20 HR/100 RBI. With Guillen gone, losing Ibanez would leave Sexson (lucky to reach 20 hits, let alone 20 HR), Beltre....wow, that's it. That is an offense doomed to failure.
What's the M's need is an bonafide ACE to pair with Felix and challenge the Angels for the division. If the Twins have put us on the "backburner", then lets move right to Bedard, or Haren. Speaking of Haren, I'm assuming the reason he isn't mentioned by the M's is because of the intradivisional thing??
Posted by ricofoy
4:49 AM, Dec 04, 2007
The hell with Guillen - he's gone and good riddance. Let him take his cheating ass to KC and rot there in last place for the next 3 years. They will regret signing that malcontent - just watch.
I'd also take a gamble on Jackson if Broussard and Johnson will get it done. Jackson pitched pretty well the last dozen games or so last year. Maybe the light bulb came on. He's only 24.
Broussard is expendable and Johnson's nothing special.
Posted by Simon
5:19 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Maybe losing a pick with Guillen is no big deal. But the part that bothers me is that Bavasi couldn't figure out the "market" for Guillen in order to max his outgoing value.
Remember last year when the pitching market exploded and Bavasi reacted in complete suprise to the trend of big contracts for pitchers. Who knew that teams would be handing out such riches? Every team in the league was flush with CASH FROM THE SALE OF ONE OF ITS TEAMS and Bavasi is still caught off guard by the spending.
His habit of turning something into nothing is slowing down the process of becoming a contender.
Posted by Fred
5:30 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Sad to say, I am now hoping that Bavasi will not make any deals in Nashville.
Letting Guillen depart without getting an easy "sandwich" draft pick between the first and second rounds was just plain stupid. Stupid.
Also not surprising that Bavasi did not even respond to the Cubs' inquiry weeks ago about Ibanez. He has more important things to do, apparently. The Mariners should move Ibanez now for whatever decent talent they can receive in return. He is a liability now in the field, has become gimpy, and will never repeat his 2006 offensive season. Sexson? For a fungo bat---if some other team will take any part of his inflated salary. Lopez could be traded for a player of value.
Keep Broussard. Keep Reed. He can be a valuable bench and role player. Keep the prime young talent now on the roster, including Morrow, Jones, Balentien, et. al. Sign Kuroda and one other free-agent pitcher. Start spring training before Bavasi can strike again.
Posted by Fred
5:31 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Sad to say, I am now hoping that Bavasi will not make any deals in Nashville.
Letting Guillen depart without getting an easy "sandwich" draft pick between the first and second rounds was just plain stupid. Stupid.
Also not surprising that Bavasi did not even respond to the Cubs' inquiry weeks ago about Ibanez. He has more important things to do, apparently. The Mariners should move Ibanez now for whatever decent talent they can receive in return. He is a liability now in the field, has become gimpy, and will never repeat his 2006 offensive season. Sexson? For a fungo bat---if some other team will take any part of his inflated salary. Lopez could be traded for a player of value.
Keep Broussard. Keep Reed. He can be a valuable bench and role player. Keep the prime young talent now on the roster, including Morrow, Jones, Balentien, et. al. Sign Kuroda and one other free-agent pitcher. Start spring training before Bavasi can strike again.
Posted by ricofoy
6:22 AM, Dec 04, 2007
And 4 years 40 million plus for Kuroda? What a mistake that will be. Igawa was a better pitcher than Kuroda in Japan and we all know how that turned out.
Posted by JoeHron
7:11 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Geoff, you should give blog tips to your fellow Seattle Times reporters. The rest of the Times' sports blogs stink. Congrats on blowing away the pack. Great info here.
Posted by eastcoast
7:20 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Just keeping the good-natured debate going:
For all those who think Edwin Jackson would be a good addition, consider the following; In his admittedly short career, he has averaged 5BB/9IP. Last season, his first as a starter, he lasted past the sixth inning only twice in 32 starts. And you thought our BP was taxed last year! He was also 0-2 vs the LAA with an ERA of 5.91 in those two starts.
As for Cliff Lee, his ERA, WHIP, and BAA have risen each of the last three years (a la D-train). And Mark Prior hasn't pitched since 2006.
If this team wants to seriously contend for the AL West title, we need to make a significant upgrade. Kuroda, though he has good numbers in Japan, is still a HUGE question mark. Santana, Haren, and Bedard have elite stuff. Haren gets the edge over Bedard because he goes deeper into games and has been consistantly strong for at least three years. Guys like AJ Burnett and Sheets have #1 stuff, but come with injury problems (but would be worth a shot if the first three can't be had). The Giants are good potential trading partners. They are an aging team with good young SP, and they may want Sexson. I could envision a blockbuster deal that includes Sexson, Lopez, Balentien or Jones, and Clement or Johnson for Durham and Lowry or Cain or Lincecum and a prospect (or some variation of the above).
Posted by david h
7:41 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Geoff, I'd love to hear Bavasi pressed more on Guillen. Since they could release him by mid-March and only owe a small fraction of his salary, how can the monetary exposure really be a concern, compared to the high likelihood of him declining and the value of the compensation pick in between rounds 1 and 2? It really seems like an inexcusably poor decision.
Posted by Adam
8:04 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Merrill - It matters what Bavasi believed about Guillen's chances of getting a multi-year deal, because if he had any hunch that such would happen, he should have offerred arbitration. If Bavasi had gauged the market correctly, he would have forseen that Guillen would have turned down arbitration in favor of that multi-year deal.
And if Guillen had done so, our compensatory pick would have come right after the first round - and right before the second round. We would have had another pick in the top 40 - NOT the 40th round.
Bavasi just cost the team a top-40 pick. He messed up - again.
ricofoy - Just curious, since you hate Guillen for being a cheater, what are your thoughts on other Mariners who juiced?
Posted by Brad
8:39 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Looks like the Mitchell report is coming out in the next couple of weeks.
When it does are we going to have to rename Edgar Martinez Way to Alvin Davis Way?
Posted by Brian
8:43 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Screw leaving with starting pitching, giving up three top prospects for one pitcher, to risky. If that top tear pitcher gets hurt then you wash another season down the tubes. Frankly right now I am ready for the Mariners to start trying to develop starting pitching and then selling it away for three top prospects. If you have to acquire starting pitching do it on the free agent market, where all you risk is money, and not you future. And yes eastcoast you are right, the M's have no chance for Haren.
Posted by Peter
8:47 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Hey Geoff,
I'm a lifelong m's fan. i grew up going to the kingdome, buying outfield seats and then sitting behind the dugout with my family.
when 95 happened, it was magical. i was in high school at the time. we skipped school for games. we slept out overnight to get tickets. and we beat the yankees. FINALLY, the m's were becoming a real competitive force. maybe they could become a perennial powerhouse in baseball?
the m's have improved. we have a gorgeous stadium. we no longer finish in last place every year. however, I WANT MORE.
THE OFFSEASON FOR THE MS HAS BECOME A BROKEN RECORD. Every year, the fan base is promised that we are going to go after big names and big changes only to overpay for lesser names. This is exactly what is happening this offseason. When bavasi said he was going to talk to the twins, I rolled my eyes. Now I wait for the second part of this offseason. The fans being told all the reasons we couldnt get some top talent and how we misjudged the market. After that the m's will make a deal or signing on some lesser name and will overpay him and then we will be told that we have high hopes for this second tier player. All the while we maintain one of the highest paid team payrolls.
I have no confidence in Bavasi. If they do not win this year, you will see me and my buddies with paper sacks on our heads embarrassed to be a fan of an organization that caters to people who enjoy a ivars dog and cora crying on the bench rather than people who crave a trip to the world series.
Please pass the word onto Bavasi. Just because they missed out on a HOF in Santana, dont blow the farm on a second tier guy in Bedard. Bedard is great but hes nowhere near santana.
Love your blog Geoff.
Posted by -k
8:59 AM, Dec 04, 2007
I hate to say it, or even think it, but it is sounding more and more like Sexson will start the year at first again. No one wants him, and why would they?
I still think that SanFan would be be a good trading partner for us, since they want younf position players and have young pitching. They also want to dump Durham's salary, and would be motivated by anyone willing to take it. How about Lopez, Brousard and Clement for Durham and on1 of their 3 young pitchers.
Thoughts?
Posted by Donovan
9:00 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Brian - The problem with your strategy is that it means the M's take a pass on the '08 season, since there is no quality pitching to be had on the free agent market, and we can't win with what we have now. Position prospects (many of whom will never reach their potential) are a cheap commodity in comparison to proven pitching. It's a tough situation for the M's. They have to make a pitching deal to convince the fans they are serious about the season, but any deal that will do that will cost a ton. There is no way to play it safe.
Hi everybody. Geez, is April really still 4 months away?
Posted by -k
9:08 AM, Dec 04, 2007
ok, so as deals happen throughout the offseason, I'll be posting updated lists of the teams Needs, Rotation and Lineup. This is what is currently on the roster. All comments and feedback are appreciated.
Needs:
2 starters
8th inning righty
Dump Sexson
Possible upgrade at 2nd
Rotation:
Felix
Washburn
Batista
HoRam
Baek
Lineup:
Ichiro CF
Vidro DH
Ibanez LF
Beltre 3rd
Sexson 1st
Johjima C
Jones RF
Lopez 2nd
Yuni SS
Posted by Mariner Optimist
9:27 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Unbelievably bad start to what looks to be another "off" offseason for the Mariners.
How could Bavasi not be willing to risk having Guillen around for a year in order to get a nice sandwich pick for Fontaine to turn into future gold?
Now let the rumor mill twist and twirl, until out of desperation, the M's overspend talent to acquire a mediocre (we can hope!) starting pitcher.
Posted by Big Ebu
9:35 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Geoff,
Great job keeping us up to date on the blog. Heard you on KJR this morning and was curious to know what you think would be a "fair" price in prospects to get Bedard. I agree that Morrow, Clement and Jones is too much. I'd hate to even lose 2 of these guys in a trade for Bedard. If clubs go after Heren instead of Bedard and his price drops, what combo would work? Maybe substitute Balentien or Johnson or one of our younger propsects with potential for at least 1 of the big 3 get it done?
I cringe to think that Kuroda is going to cost us 4 years and $40M+ to sign. I also cringe to think that this could be the only upgrade to our starting rotation other than trading or signing more guys to compete for the #5 spot in the rotation.
Posted by usesomelogic
9:45 AM, Dec 04, 2007
The fact that Angels have been quiet with Santana scares me. They haven't been mentioned anywhere but it wouldn't surprise me to see them sneak in at the last minute and offer up some of their young prospects (which everyone says they have quite a few high rated ones) for Santana. Can you imagine a Lackey, Santana & Weaver 1-2-3 punch? This on top of their line-up. That would give them the division for the next 5 years probably.
Scarey thought.....It's good to hear the M's are trying everything they can to improve, and the report is that the money it would take to sign Santana is not a problem. Again refreshing.....I might like the Ben Sheets deal better than Bedard, if it takes only one of our top prospects to get him as reported. I'd give them Raul, Rob Johnson and an arm like Rowland-Smith or Huber. I'd try to do everything I could to hang on to Clement. A left handed power hitting catcher is rare. Remember the season we had to go through in order to get him with the #3 pick?
Posted by usesomelogic
9:50 AM, Dec 04, 2007
One more note.....I think I'd rather take a chance on Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon over Kurodo. Probably less expensive options and they might take a two year deal. Both have had proven success in the A.L. and seems to be a true low risk high reward situation. Kurodo to me seems to be just too risky to offer even 3 years to.
Posted by david h
9:50 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Merrill - thanks for taking on the "tax drain" comment.
In other news, as pointed out above, the compensation pick would have been a sandwich pick between rounds 1 and 2, so a very valuable pick. Also, it has nothing to do with honoring Guillen's desire to sign a multi-year deal, because it wouldn't have prevented him from doing so.
Posted by Chris from Bothell
9:51 AM, Dec 04, 2007
So, my previous assertions about Fukudome were wrong, and he does seem available. Why aren't the M's looking into him? Especially if Guillen is gone and Ibanez is on the trading block?
Posted by IAMCoyote
10:04 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Take the Bedard deal for Morrow, Clement and Jones if it is possible. That still leaves us with Balentien and the same basic offense we had last year, while adding a true TOR pitcher and one who could very well be Cy Yount material.
One can sit back forever and believe that the price is too high only to find out at the end of the meetings that, by-golly, inflation hit the Major League salaries AGAIN. I mean does anyone really believe that prices will go down?
When was the last time that happened?
If you wait it will only get more expensive and Bavasi got caught off guard with that last year.
Do the deal. We still have Morse and or Balentien in the outfield with Raul and Ichiro.
Sexson can't get any worse and since we likely cannot move him there is the possibility of him actually getting back to old form. If that is the case then we are suddenly a contender.
Bedard could add say another 8 wins to this team. His presence could ad another 5 wins to Felix's record. Our bottom of the rotation will be better than last year's bottom of the rotation and let's say it gives us another 2 wins.
Let's say (hope) Sexson returns somewhat and we get an additional win from him and Beltre only get's better and we get an extra win because of his improved offense that is two more.
17 more wins than last year... does that put us in contention with the Angels? It certainly does.
A one two punch with Bedard and Felix would be as good if not better than any in all of baseball.
AND... and we have a nucleus for two years along with the added revenue of being an exciting and contending team to allow us to have more money to spend next year and the year after.
Do the deal. A bird in the hand is always better than two in the bush.
yip yip
Posted by byebyeIbanez
10:11 AM, Dec 04, 2007
what if? what if? what if? hey Walrus, did you ever stop to consider what if Guillen got hurt? Now you're paying a guy 12 million who you never wanted in the first place. Seriously, just stfu. It's only a class B compensatory pick that we lose out on. And from all of you guys talking about trading away the prospects and how they never amount to nothing, I don't understand how this gets your panties all up in a bunch.
Posted by ricofoy
10:11 AM, Dec 04, 2007
I actually hated Guillen for being a jerk and a troublemaker before I knew he was a cheater. The fact that's he's a juicer is icing on the cake.
I know Morse got busted - i would have booted him out of the org as well. No loss there.
Who are the other M's who juiced? I wouldn't want any of them on the team.I hope there aren't any on the Mitchell report. I'm kind of worried Beltre may show up. That 2004 year sticks out like a sore thumb.
Posted by Donovan
10:13 AM, Dec 04, 2007
The M's difficulties making deals today have very little to do with money, and haven't for several years. We are a relatively rich team. All other things being equal (including money), Seattle is at a huge disadvantage against other big budget clubs in any free agent signing or trade for a player with refusal rights. The fact is that most players would rather play elsewhere. Nationally, our team has no cachet or following, no championship record, we are geographically isolated from everywhere else, and the travel schedule is the worst in baseball. Our closest road game is 800 miles away. The ballpark is wonderful for fans, but statistically deadly to any power hitter other than a dead pull lefty. You'd think it might be attractive to pitchers, but apparently not enough to outweigh the travel requirement (apparently an issue for Santana) and the likelihood of playing in obscurity. Let's face it, these days getting the big money is easy for proven stars. Lots of teams have it right now, not just the Yanks and Sox. Young stars want the spotlight. Older stars want the Series. Seattle offers an easy path to neither. We only have an inside track with native Northwesterners and Japanese players. That's the real reason we can mainly only sign high risk free agents. The guys with other options usually take them.
My point is that the M's will always have to overpay the market to get proven stars. If you are going to clamor for the FO to bring in elite pitching and real power hitting, then you'd better accept the fact that we will have to pay a significant premium over what the Yankees, Cubs, and Angels can offer. We start in a deep hole with most players.
Posted by david h
10:21 AM, Dec 04, 2007
byebyeibanez:
1) The compensatory pick is a big deal. It is basically a first round pick (sandwich pick between first and second round).
2) Even if Guillen has not signed elsewhere, the team could have paid 1/6 of his arbitration award to release him, probably under $2 million. Considering the very small chance that he didn't get a multi-year deal elsewhere, offering arbitration was a smart risk to take to get the draft pick. (or, better yet, keep Guillen on a 1 year deal).
Posted by fastrs4
10:24 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Slightly unrelated... Geoff, any chance you could compress those images? It's great to see them, but they're over 1 MB each. Makes the blog unuseable from my mobile phone. Thx.
Posted by wrmike
10:45 AM, Dec 04, 2007
People on this blog complain about the Mariners having little prospects in the minors. People on this blog want to trade two or three prospects to get a decent starter. I hope these aren't the same people.
Clements is no longer a prospect. He is a major league player now. Maybe not at catcher, but somewhere. OK, sixteen AB's is not a strong sampele size, but he strikes out less than Jones, walks way more and he is a left hand bat. I am not putting down Jones; he is also ready now, obviously.
Posted by Adam
10:48 AM, Dec 04, 2007
bbI - what if Guillen was injured? Huh? Give me a break. That's a terrible excuse. Using that logic, we shouldn't offer a multi-year contract to ANY player.
Not offering Guillen arbitration was stupid. Admit it.
Posted by Rod
10:58 AM, Dec 04, 2007
I guess I'm in the minority here, but I just don't see why everybody is so eager to trade away our future on one or two players. Jones, Clement, Balentien, Morrow, these guys teamed up with Bentancourt, Beltre, Ichiro, and Felix should be our foundation for the next 5 years. I realize everybody wants a "quick fix" that'll get us to the World Series this year, but I'm sorry, it just ain't out there, and the price on such a gamble could keep this team in mediocrity for years to come. I think we can win now, (and by win, I mean a winning record), with some minor tweaking, and still let our young guys get the experience they need. Johjima is an experienced, proven, but purely pull hitting catcher who has a fairly high trade value. Let's package him and Lopez for a stud second baseman. I'd much rather see what Clement and Johnson can do behind the plate. We've had glimpses of what Clement can do with the stick, let's get his development as the every day catcher started.
As for pitching, my gut tells me that Morrow has what it takes to be very good starting pitcher. He just needs to condition his body for that role. He did it in college, he can do it in the Bigs. Team him up with Felix, Washburn, and Batista. Ho-Ram needs to go, so we've got a need for a starter via trade, FA, or from the farm system. World Series ready rotation? Of course not, but it develops these players so that next year, or the year after, all it'll take is one major FA signing, and you've got that World Series ready rotation to go along with what will be solid, young, but experienced veteran position players. Now, add a guy like Griffey to be your DH, and the playoffs are a very real possibility for several years to come.
Posted by Chris from Bothell
11:10 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Donovan - logically, what you're talking about means we should give up on the conventional free agents and trades, and go whole hog into overseas recruiting. Specifically Asia. The M's could position themselves as "gateway to the majors" to Korea and Japan, and make it their top priority to go after every Kuroda, Fukudome, etc. that comes along. Even if that means a revolving door of players that only sit around here for 2 to 3 years before moving on elsewhere, a steady, reliable stream of quality players that we don't have to fight for so much in addition to the usual farm system, would be keen.
If money is no issue, then why not avoid having to give up prospects for anything? If travel and remoteness is a huge issue, why not remind the good players in Korea and Japan that Seattle cuts down their total travel time back to home more than anywhere else? We already have a huge base in Japan thanks to Ichiro; why not expand on that? And the WBC a couple years ago showed that there's perfectly decent pitching in Korea and Japan.
I'd love the M's to have a vision for the team, any vision, beyond "we want to be above .500 and make $ every year" that we have from them now. I'd think it was bold and exciting to not only see players you'd never see any other way, but to have one team say "forget it, we're going to cut the Gordian Knot and not use the market and the money and the East Coast Bias as an excuse anymore".
While I'm at it, I'd like a pony.
Posted by eastcoast
11:11 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Great comment Donovan. Those are exactly the reasons players don't come to Seattle, which makes landing top flight free agents all the more difficult. Thus making obtaining top players by trade the best way to bring in talent. So I am completely prepared to deal our blue-chippers for some QUALITY starting pitching, but unwilling to trade for more MOTR guys. I just hope Bavasi is exploring all his options, which it appears he is.
Posted by Peter
11:24 AM, Dec 04, 2007
Donovan,
Great points.
Here are my solutions then. Create an atmosphere that overcomes the drawbacks of playing in seattle a la dallas mavericks/sacramento kings OR Overpay for superstuds (santana, vlad, arod, etc.).
Just don't overpay for midtier guys. (washburn, sexson, etc.) Which is why I am okay with the fact that they are not paying guillen. I would much rather see a kid trying to win a spot (balentin) than overpaying a gamble (everett)
Posted by shane/olympia
11:41 AM, Dec 04, 2007
a update would be nice since it is already 2:30 on the east coast
i got the feeling bavasi has taken an all new approch this year by being the gm from a secondary tier team behind boston,NYY, NYM, chicago, detroit, and LA. it seems like he is that little brother that tags along with the big boys.
last year bavasi was laid back and landed bautista who had a better year then schmidt and zito
its werid what a year makes i wanted bavasi gone
last year now i feel confident with him doing jobs
Posted by Lance
11:42 AM, Dec 04, 2007
I hope Hank Steinbrenner does pull out of the Santana talks. The talks will then deflate into nothing. Boston will pull back Ellsbury, even Lester. No need to include them without New York compitition. Then the Twins will simply hold onto Santana for awhile longer, anyway. The Yankees can get back in later, like during ST. But, for crying out loud, either do something or get off the pot and quit holding up these meetings!
.
Hank, do what you said you'd do. Then, you can accomplish something that no one ever thought would even happen. Make a Steinbrenner a hero.
Posted by -k
12:01 PM, Dec 04, 2007
I think I'll get blasted for this one, but I've always loved stirring up the debate...
Too many people on this blog are in love with prospects. There is no guarantee that Jones, Clement, Balentine, or any other prospect will ever be a star. I'm not even talking about injuries, and Mariner fans know better than anyone else about injuries to "can't miss" prospects. Jason Stark of ESPN says that only 1 in 5 "can't miss" guys actually materialize into anything worthwhile at the major league level.
The player that stands out most as a risk is actually Jones. He has power, speed and defense. He also strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough. We as M's fans have had him in our system before, only last time his name was Jose Cruz Jr. you know, the guy who's spent most of his career batting .220.
Jones will never have more more value then now. If we can get a TOR pitcher for him, then do it. Let someone else worry about IF he ever learns not to strike out or how to take a walk.
Posted by Donovan
12:05 PM, Dec 04, 2007
I agree on the focus on Asia as a long-term strategy. One area where I think everybody would have to agree the M's have been pretty astute in recent years is international scouting, and I mean Latin America (Venezuela anyway) as well as Asia. The talent hunt is global these days, but we do as well as anybody finding it.
No question there is big untapped talent in Asia, and (hopefully) fewer racist, nationalistic barriers to bringing it here. Things have changed a lot since the mid-80s, where a Japanese-led ownership group was considered so distasteful to MLB powers that the M's almost went to Florida. Future expansion of the market for pro baseball, like all sports (all products actually), is going to be primarily focused on Asia, since that's where most of the people on Earth live. I think the internationalization of baseball is great, and I think the M's do have a leg up on the league because of geography, ownership, and history. Unfortunately, there are few ML-ready bargains coming out of Japan anymore, especially through their MLB posting system. Future successes recruiting in Asia are more likely to be about project players and diamonds in the rough. I don't think we are going to see any more Ichiros coming in and winning MVPs and batting titles as MLB rookies.
No question, the M's are positioned to lead the league in Asian talent development, but that won't help us this season, and that's a big problem for Bavasi et al. I honestly think anything less than playoffs, or at least playoff contention through the last week of the season will be universally viewed as a failure for the M's in '08. Heads will roll and venom will spew from blogs like fountains if we can't contend this year.
Yo Chris - I talked to Santa about that pony. He's gonna check his list, but don't hold your breath.
Posted by usesomelogic
12:50 PM, Dec 04, 2007
Giving up those three propects for Bedard is a lot ot give up. But might be what we have to do, is there any chance of this blockbuster scenario-
Seattle sends-
Clement
Morrow
Jones
Lopez
Broussard or Sexson (if Sexson plus some cash)
Baltimore sends
Bedard
Miguel Tejada
and low level prospect
Move Tejada to 2nd base? Probably a long shot but this is the time to dream a little.
Posted by byebyeIbanez
3:02 PM, Dec 04, 2007
Thank you Rod. It's about time someone with some sense joins me on this blog message board. I really didn't think I'd be able to stand listening to their nonsense another minute without punching a wall. You hit the nail on the head when you said that there is no "quick fix" out there. I really would like to see Johjima traded. IMO, he's the one holding back some of our pitchers. He doesn't know how to call a game from behind the plate and he sucks at throwing runners out not to mention the fact that he's a liability on offense. Get Clement in there and let him play 130 games at catcher and another 25 at DH with Burke backing up. He's got a big time bat and I think he can work with the pitchers a little bit better than Johjima. Either way, definitely don't extend Johjima this summer and hold on to our prospects. A rotation of Hernandez, Aumont, Morrow, Butler and Tillman in 3 years would be excellent and better yet cost us next to nothing.
Posted by Mr. X
5:06 PM, Dec 04, 2007
"No question there is big untapped talent in Asia, and (hopefully) fewer racist, nationalistic barriers to bringing it here."
I agree, the Japanese posting system is both racist and nationalistic, and needs to be a thing of the past.
Regarding the unemployed tax drain, that comment was directed towards a once prominent Mariner blogger who posted his resume on a Mariner Blog in hopes that one of his readers would hire him. It was both hilarious and embarassing at the same time.
Jul 4, 08 - 03:16 PM
Detroit Tigers at Mariners: 07/04 game thread
Jul 4, 08 - 12:28 PM
Holiday optimism
Jul 3, 08 - 11:13 PM
Better opposition tonight
Jul 3, 08 - 08:56 PM
Detroit Tigers at Mariners: 07/03 game thread
Jul 3, 08 - 05:45 PM
Hernandez throws, Rowland-Smith blogs, Clement struggles

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Posted by Patrick F.
11:02 PM, Dec 03, 2007
Here's hoping Bavasi and Co. leave Nashville with some starting pitching. Excellent coverage on the Winter Meetings, Geoff. Reading the blog today has been a lot of fun.