Mariners Blog
Geoff Baker covers the Mariners for The Seattle Times. He provides daily coverage of the team throughout spring training, and during the season.
December 5, 2007 7:02 PM
Meetings in quagmire
Posted by Geoff Baker
Plenty of you have emailed to wonder why there's been no blog update for a while. The simple answer is, there's nothing to update. Nothing is happening other than a lot of chit-chat. You can thank the Minnesota Twins and Johan Santana for that. As far as big pitching deals go, everyone is looking for Santana's trade to "set the market."
Problem is, there's been no trade.
As we mentioned earlier, the Twins are not happy with what the Red Sox have offered for their ace. It doesn't help them that the Yankees bowed out of talks, effectively eliminating the chief source of competition. Tough to drive a market up that way. So, everyone plays a waiting game, including the Baltimore Orioles, who still are not happy with any offers they've received for Erik Bedard.
The O's had other things on their mind today as they ponder a deal that would send popular second baseman Brian Roberts to the Cubs. Here's the lowdown on that. Not saying the O's can't handle two things at once. I'm sure they can. But I guess I'm starting to wonder if these two GMs -- Billy Smith in Minnesota and Andy MacPhail in Baltimore -- really know what they want to do with their pitchers.
I mean, in a market like this, with teams desperate for pitching and two of the game's best on the market, how tough can it be to strike a deal? I think there is a fear factor at-play here, with neither GM wanting to look like a fool by getting fleeced for a staff ace. Let's face it, any deal struck here, given the names involved, is going to be remembered for an awful long time. Perhaps in historic terms.
Also, there could be some greed invovled as well. When is enough going to be enough in terms of the return that can be generated for a top pitcher? Does either GM really know? I mean, they can have a goal in mind, but if it's unrealistic where the market is concerned, does that goal have to be shifted?
In Santana's case, it is true that the Twins could let him walk as a free agent after 2008 and receive two compensatory draft picks. Yes, they will be high picks. But is that still the same as receiving major league ready prospects? It is if you've got a few years to kill. Otherwise, it isn't quite the same and there's a much higher risk involved in picking players from scratch as opposed to receiving those who've already excelled in the minors.
So, that's what's going on (or not going on) here in Nashville. The Mariners were expected to decide by today whether to extend their offer to Hiroki Kuroda from three years to four. That would seem to put them in the lead for the Japanese free-agent's services. Remember, Kuroda is still planning a visit to Seattle and other stops next week.
Lots of buzz about the rumored suspension that could be handed down to former Mariners outfielder Jose Guillen. Some of you have written in to ask me whether I think the possible suspension -- said to be 10 to 15 games -- was the reason why the Mariners didn't seek a multi-year deal with the slugger. Well, let's see. In three years, Guillen could play roughly 180 games with the team. So, do I think his missing 10 or 15 of those is the reason a team wouldn't sign him? Uh, no.
As far as not offering him arbitration, the "exposure" argument doesn't make all that much sense to me. I figured this was what the team would say. But realistically, nobody is going to turn down a package paying $36 million from the Royals in favor of a one-year, $10 million arbitration award (maybe) to play in Seattle.
I mean, Guillen is not Vladimir Guerrero. The $36 million was his lifetime lottery win. That's it. Probably his last big deal. Not like he'd risk playing one more year and then try for his big score. Not after all the elbow surgeries and leg woes he had in just the last 18 months alone.
Chances he'd resign with Seattle? My opinion is, virtually nil. Much has been made about the fact he sat on the KC offer for over a week and only signed once Seattle declined arbitration. Well, that's one possiblity.
Another is that Guillen got worried late last week when the Royals began making noise about going after Andruw Jones instead. If it were me, and my lifetime score was about to fly out the window, I'd quit my stalling tactics and ink my name above the dotted line.
But that's just me, of course.
As for those of you wondering about Guillen's impact in the clubhouse, I can tell you he was not a "cancer" in any way. Yes, he did use his mouth a lot and made his opinions known, often through this blog. But no, he was not the problem with the Mariners. A mediocre starting rotation was. A defense that wasn't nearly as good as advertised didn't help. A lineup where all nine guys weren't entirely focused night after night was a problem. Was Guillen one of those lacking focus? No. He played hard. His teammates, even those who may not have liked his style all the time, respected how he played the game. He got along very well with J.J. Putz, so that should tell you something about the man's character. So what if he used his mouth? He said back in August that he knew he could get a three-year deal superior to the $30 million package given to Eric Byrnes by the Diamondbacks. Guess what? Guillen was right. If you're going to talk, back it up. He did.
Was he everyone's cup of tea? No. But that didn't make him a cancer. The way I see it, he was a breath of fresh air for a club that didn't know much about winning prior to 2007. Going forward, we'll see. Feel free to disagree.
Posted by Walla Walla Girl
8:16 PM, Dec 05, 2007
Thanks for the great blog, Geoff! I appreciate your comments on Guillen. I, for one, will miss the man and his contributions on and off the field. The M's may miss him too if they trade Jones et al. and end up needing an outfielder.
Carry on.
Posted by ethan
8:41 PM, Dec 05, 2007
Geoff..were you able to ask McLaren what players remain on the markert to ensure an August collapse? I believe we need to bolster our level of mediocrity.
Posted by Lance
8:56 PM, Dec 05, 2007
No disagreement here, whatsoever, on your points on Guillen. I thought you were right on. Hargrove had no issues with him, and as far as anyone knows neither did McLaren. I'm sure most M's fans wish him well. Except, of course, against them. Signing him really ended up a win-win deal. M's got a productive bat for one year until AJ could take his proper place in the M's OF while Guillen got to show he's healthy and improve his image. KC will benefit by having him, on and off the field. You also expressed it well that Seattle had no legitimate concern that he'd try to return. I wonder who that sandwich pick might have been.
.
Which brings me to my next point. I think there's a bigger point here. Another M's beat writer and blogger set out to explain why the M's failed to offer Guillen arbitration. It seemed to me he was just being used to parrot management's effort to try to cover up a bumbling of the matter and, as such, making himself a Mariners manaagement apologist. Maybe because that's what he is. A parrot for management.
.
If that's the way it is then fine. As long as we all know that's where he's coming from. I just hope you, and your blog, will never become that. I hope you continue to say what you think, whether it's popular to management, or to the fan base, or neither. One thing I'll credit you for. You're among the few bloggers that can accept a dissenting opinion without getting vengeful, your nose out of joint, engage in namecalling, or start threatening banning. I hope that never changes.
Posted by Sammy
8:57 PM, Dec 05, 2007
Geoff, just wanted to let you know that I'm loving these winter meeting blog updates. It completely changes the complexion of following the meetings with you on the scene giving us a thousand or so words a day of first-hand reporting; sure beats scouring espn.com for any mention of the Mariners a thousand times a day. I'm pretty sure the entire fanbase agrees with you on the Guillen thing. It's a pretty rare event when you, Dave Cameron, and Jeff Sullivan scratch your heads simultaneously at M's management and say "huh?", and I think it speaks volumes. Looking at the gap in quality between our team and the top teams in the league, then looking at the people we have in charge to correct the situation is enough to make a lifelong fan want to cry.
Posted by Mark
9:09 PM, Dec 05, 2007
I am going to miss Guillen, his 99 RBI's, his hustle, and fire. I can't believe we let him go, but probably will be stuck with Sexson another season. UGH! I was hoping for some miracle and they would have figured out a way to keep him.
Posted by Walrus
9:25 PM, Dec 05, 2007
Thank you for keeping the Guillen story going, and for your analysis. I agree for the most part with you, and I wish Jose well.
Now, onto what this analysis tells us about the M's FO & Bavasi.
If Bill comes away from these meetings being "surprised" at what cost in players the top pitchers required (which I suspect he will) it will be the third time in four years that the M's FO / Bavasi(only the the past 2 years) have misjudged the market. That is no longer an "OOPS". That is a trend. That shows that the M's advisors and or mentors are ROUTINELY wrong. The Guillen story is just another example.
I only hope that this year Bavasi has a better back-up plan than Jeff Weaver.
Posted by lox
9:44 PM, Dec 05, 2007
Lance, I know exactly who that writer is you're speaking of. You're absolutely right about him, he's nothing more than a spokesman for M's management. I've been reading his stuff for a long time and have yet to see him once admit when Bavasi and co. make a mistake. They could trade Jones and Clement for Julio Franco and resign HoRam for $100mil and he'd find a way to justify it. Props to you Geoff for having the guts to call them out when warranted, like with this Guillen fiasco.
Posted by oregongal
10:29 PM, Dec 05, 2007
Geoff, I don't have much to say about the winter meetings, but I do want to thank you for the updates, which I pop into religiously. It makes it almost seem like summer again (including the frustration) instead of almost-winter with floods and landslides everywhere around here.
Posted by HarryPodelstein
11:02 PM, Dec 05, 2007
I enjoyed the passion Guillen played with on the field.. but i think our coaches were scared of him.. he was like the voice of the veterans, and I think Mr. McLaren was afraid to ruffle his feathers.. We had that long stretch where everyone was begging Jones to get some PT.. and all u kept hearing from behind the scenes was McLaren not wanting to step on anybodys toes and mess with the vets that have a track record..
In the end in paid off cause IBanez got hott.. but i couldnt take another season of McLaren being scared of Guillen.. it's now one less vet on the team that Johhny boy will cater to
Posted by HarryPodelstein
11:03 PM, Dec 05, 2007
I enjoyed the passion Guillen played with on the field.. but i think our coaches were scared of him.. he was like the voice of the veterans, and I think Mr. McLaren was afraid to ruffle his feathers.. We had that long stretch where everyone was begging Jones to get some PT.. and all u kept hearing from behind the scenes was McLaren not wanting to step on anybodys toes and mess with the vets that have a track record..
In the end in paid off cause IBanez got hott.. but i couldnt take another season of McLaren being scared of Guillen.. it's now one less vet on the team that Johhny boy will cater to
Posted by dr
11:15 PM, Dec 05, 2007
Geoff: thanks for your winter meeting blog reports and photos. God! What a garish, bizarre place that Opryland Hotel is....perfect for baseball FO types!
It's all been said in these blog threads re: what the Ms can't accomplish, again, at the winter meetings. I've said repeatedly that it appears other GMs don't seem to take Bavasi seriously, but, good lord, it also looks like Chuck Armstrong and the rest of the "suits" aren't viewed much better. The sense I get is that the Ms have lost a lot of ground over the past 4 years in terms of being a destination for good players who don't already make their offseason homes in Washington. One problem is the Ms are wasting yet another year of Felix's development and another year off the contract of guys like Beltre. I'm sure Ichiro is tickled pink he signed that contract extension....
I agree with those who say Bavasi will come back to Seattle and say "We tried but there just wasn't the right fit and we're not going to make a trade just to make a trade." Then, of course, he'll go out and either overpay another #5 SP and/or trade away Brandon Morrow for a Rule 5 guy. How on earth are the Ms going to "spin" 2008? What's NOT going on at Opryland cannot be good for season ticket sales. I'm almost to the point of just throwing up my hands and letting the AAA kids play the entire season.
Posted by Buschleaguer
11:18 PM, Dec 05, 2007
Geoff,
Let me echo the sentiment of others 'round here:
I feel like i've died and gone to M's information heaven!
A couple of years ago, a poster going by the name of "Grandpa Mariner" was giving us daily updates from Peoria during Spring Training and it was the best coverage i'd seen of any sporting franchise....ever. Hundreds (or maybe even thousands) of us logged in numerous times a day to see the latest update. Your blog has FAR surpassed that and more than satisfied my craving for M's info.
I'm sure I am speaking for all serious M's fans when I say that we have lucked into one of the best hirings EVER for a beat writer covering our favorite sports team in a local paper.
Last season's blog was amazing......and to have you blogging from the winter meetings is awesome! Thanks for the way you go above and beyond the call to bring us great (and sometimes even humorous) insights and I just wanted to let you know that i'll be writing your editor to share my feelings on his hire for M's beat writer last year. I'd encourage others to do the same so that some other team doesn't find you, offer you more money, and hire you away from us. I don't know what he's paying you, but from our standpoint, its not enough...
Keep up the GREAT work!
Posted by Merrill
11:27 PM, Dec 05, 2007
Hey, Oregongal, nice to see you're lurking.
Ricofoy, I have to agree with Donovan; I tend to enjoy your posts, but where in the world did you get the idea that Guillen ever said anything bad about M's management? Or mistreated AJ? You're reading the same stuff as all the rest of us, and 99% of us, including Geoff, who was on the scene every day, think Guillen was good for the M's in a lot of ways.
As Guillen himself said, you never read about him going out getting into trouble, drinking etc. I wish him well.
Mr. X, I'm wracking my brains, but so far they aren't up to the task you've set me... o well, wouldn't be the first time, not likely to be the last...
Posted by Mr. X
6:15 AM, Dec 06, 2007
Just for you Merrill. Hope I do the link thing right.
[link]http://ussmariner.com/2007/03/15/ussm-job-hunting/[/link]
Posted by Mr. X
6:19 AM, Dec 06, 2007
Well, I fouled that one up, just cut and paste.
Posted by Eburg T
11:30 AM, Dec 06, 2007
I have no problem with what Guillen did while he was here, including the minor griping when AJ got called up. Could have gone a lot worse. He was a good return on investment for the one-year contract we gave him. Wish we could get equal value-per-dollar from some of our other signings over the years.
*cough*
Richie!
*cough*
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Posted by Dan
8:01 PM, Dec 05, 2007
It's going to be another offseason of grand talk and settling for an overpriced over the hill starter or two. I for one am growing tired of this. If they do not land one of the big two, then I hope they go young and save the money (especially for years down the road) and burn a year seeing what Morrow/Smith/etc... can bring to the table. I, for one, cannot bear another year of overpaying for a 32 year old unknown Japanese "project" or a career 5 ERA guy when young guys can give similar results without strapping the team 2-3 years down the line.