Great insight Geoff. I'd love for the Red Sox and Yankees to walk away from the Santana sweepstakes. The big question mark then would be if the M's could get Santana signed long-term. Having countryman Felix on the staff would help, but he might be longing for a bigger market to play in.

Geoff - It's quite remarkable that think that the M's might have leverage here. Tell the O's, and the Twins, that they need to strike quickly because we'll only have Jones/Morrow/? available for one trade. It's kind of a heady throught - the M's actually in the drivers seat for once.

I know this isn't a political blog, but you brought up the Venezuelan referendum. There never was nor has Chavez ever proposed a vote to make him president for life. The referendum was a vote to remove term limits on the presidency. You know, like it was here in the U.S. until the 22nd amendment was ratified in 1951. Chavez is a duly and legally elected leader...and is extremely popular in Venezuela. Repeating the meme that he's some kind of dictator or Castro-wannabe in a non-political context is a powerful way to further the meme...which is why I felt the need to respond.

And the M's would be stupid to trade Jones, Morrow and Clement for Santana given the insane salary it will also take to land him.

I'm surprised McLaren didn't say he admired Kuroda because "he's been through the wars."

Great...Kuroda impresses the Mariners because he thinks of his family first. And that makes him a good pitcher, how?

If the M's can fill their rotation with Santana/Bedard and Kuroda.....then this team will be a REALLY tough team to beat if you ask me. I kinda think that if this became a reality, we could very easily give the Angels a run for their money in the West....

Im really looking forward to another intense summer of Mariners baseball and next year is really looking promising if things go our way this winter!!!

I know this is even obsurd to even post, but I would completely liquidate the farm system this offseason "if" it ment SOMEHOW acquiring BOTH Santana & Bedard...and sign them to longterm contracts.

AND still land Kuroda for $10M!

Santana (sign longterm)
Bedard (sign longterm)
Felix
Kuroda (signed 3-4 years)
Batista (signed 2 years)

Lets just say that that completely depletes the farm. Lets see if the Ms can afford it:

2008 Payroll Relief
Weaver $9.5M
Guillen $6M
Reitsa $4M (however you spell his name)
2008 total payroll relief $19.5M

2008 Added Salaries
Santana $13.25M
Bedard $3.4M+ (arb eligible)
Kuroda $10M
2008 Added Salaries $27M+

So that would be extending our payroll from 2007 to an additional $8M+. But remember the HUGE FoxSport contract the Ms recieved last month? The $30M MLB is sending to Seattle this offseason for their portion of the $6.075 BILLION dollar MLB revenue this year?
Heck for the 1st time I would say that I "could" actually watch Ibanez in LF one last year, and even Broussard in RF...Heck when Bedard & Santana are on the mound we can throw HoRam out in RF :) Then in 2009 when Sexson/Ibanez/Vidro come off the books we can easily afford to pay Santana his $20M+/yr, and run with LaHair at 1B. I'd would even BET that the Giants would take Sexson this year "if" we included Washburn in the deal for complete salary relief for the M's. The Ms have a MAJOR cushion this year with that extra $30M coming from MLB!!!

Bedard/Kuroda or Santana/Kuroda or trade no one and sign Kuroda?

I would trade Jones/Clement/Morrow for Santana and only for Santana. I wouldn't package our prospects for Bedard. Bedard isn't durable (no 200 IP in a season yet).

For Bedard, offer two of the three but not all three.

Kuroda only: We will suck and we should just blow up the team and rebuild with our prospects.

Not sure I want to rebuild, but if we do, we will be pretty dang good in 3-4 years. I don't think M's fans have that kind of patience.

I wouldn't trade Clement for any less than Santana. Given the contract demands it would take to keep Santana here, lets keep Clement, he's worth a 1 or 2 year look, especially with the likelihood of the DH spot opening up next year. I know Mac thinks Lopez could be a good player, but has he seen enough of Chen, or considered Bloomie as a starter, to really believe thats where to place his bet? Have the M's thought about substituting Reed and Jimmerson for Jones or Wlad (trade one pluse the other 2, plus others the O's need). What trade options are on hold (for us, most importantly, but other teams as well) until things settle with Santana and Bedard? Last question, how did the organisers, knowing what was going to be talked about the most at this meeting, not book Santana as musical entertainment for the evening hours?

how about Bedard and no Kuroda at all? Santana IMO is even with Bedard. However, Santana is going to cost a lot more and might not even want to play here.
Kentroyals5 -- I'm with you. McLaren is impressed that Kuroda cares about his family? Geee whiz, I'd be more impressed with someone who doesn't care about his family b.c it would be far more surprising and take balls to come out and say that. How about being impressed with someone b.c they can pitch? I don't see Kuroda as being anything more than a #3 or 4 in the NL and this is the AL!

Anyways, I know this is off topic but I just saw on ESPN that the Marlins' estimated '08 payroll is a whopping $10 million. That's insane in a good way! I love it. It's not like they aren't going to compete either, that team is loaded with young talent. I wish the Mariners would take a page out of their book and start building the team around youth rather than FA's, although I think Bavasi and Co. are starting to do that. We need to get rid of Sexson, Ibanez, Vidro and Johjima after this season at the latest though and I fully believe all four will be replaced with youth. Go M's!!!

The reason Mac is impressed by Kuroda's concern for his family is two-fold. 1)The Japanese players who have had the most success here are the ones who's family have moved with them. Those that have had short stints (like sasaki) and then gone back are the ones who didn't bring them. It shows a commitment to succeeding in the states. 2)It shows maturity. But then again some of the people who post on this blog couldn't possibly recognize maturity, since it is a completely foreign concept to them.

Helpfelix: Great dream, but our prospects are only valuable enough to land Santana OR Bedard, not both, so you can stop there.

Kuroda is too much of a gamble to go more than three years. If he wants a four year deal offer the same money for 2-3 years to Bartolo Colon.

The Twins don't want Clement, so it'd probably be Jones, Morrow and Balentien/Sherril for Santana.

If we go after Bedard it'd probably be Jones,Morrow and Clement.

-k: Good points on family for Japanese players. Kuroda is also consulting with Shigetoshi Hasegawa, and he is telling Kuroda to move his family here, but also that he'd be more successful pitching for a NL team where he doesn't have to face the DH. That puts the Dodgers and Diamondbacks ahead of the M's.

And I thought the ex-M Hasegawa would show us a little love, too.

I have no idea why either team would want Clement. The O's have drafted a bunch of catchers the past couple years and the Twins have a young MVP caliber catcher. I dunno if Jones and Morrow and whoever else is worth either of these guys. Especially Bedard who hasn't really proven himself nearly as much as Santana. What really bothers me about this though is that if we trade Adam Jones...what am I going to argue with Adam about?

Everything I have read indiates the O's have no interest in Clement or any other catcher, prospect or vet. Clement is ours until we're done with him. Safeco field-built for Lefty power. Clement-lefty power hitter (who is not afraid of walking btw). Do the math, hes a worthy risk, especially at league minimum until better lefty bats become available.

lmao -k, nice try at coming up with some points to counter MacLaren's idiocy. First of all its FAAAR too small of a sample size to call that little factoid of yours anything more than a coincidence. My point was everyone is going to care about their family, let's try to target someone because they impress us with their pitching talent not because they care about their family. I'm as big of a family person as there is, I absolutely LOVE my family. Can I get a deal for 3 yrs and $30 million to pitch for you, MacLaren? I'm a lefty...

Crazy times. Giants and Jays may be talking about an Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain trade. That would be highway robbery (IMHO Giants would be the ones taken!) Those are two young, very promising pitchers for one young, very good outfielder.

I agree that Clement has more value to the Mariners than either the Orioles or Twins so probably should not be used as a trading chip for either Bedard or Santana.

Of course the downside to this means the focus will shift to include Balentien. I don't mind trading Wlad, but to lose both Jones and Balentien means we need to look for 2 productive corner outfielders. Either that or Ibanez plays LF next year.

Byebye - as always you missed the point. The team (and 5-6 others) are already impressed by his pitching talent. He's not getting the contract offer for any reason other then that. But the manager has nothing to do with that, that's the GM's job. Mac's comments are from a managers perspective. He wants mature guys to ballance out the immature Lopez and most of our bullpen. He wants to see the that Kuroda is committed to the team, and not just here for a big pay day and then to run back to japan.

The point is that he HAS the talent (at least the scout think so. I'm a little worried) his commitment and maturity is a plus.

One more datapoint for the maturity / family thing. The M's shoved Carlos Guillen out the door a few years back because he was spending one too many nights out drinking and picking up women with his buddy Freddy Garcia. Guillen didn't fit the squeaky-clean image the Ms like to project. He then went on to be an all-star and defensive centerpiece over in Detroit. And for all that the Ms looked the other way with Sexson's DUI right before coming to Seattle, and took FOREVER to properly deal with wife-beater and sometimes-reliever Julio Mateo, in general the Ms place a high value on family-friendly guys. With community service sorts of guys a plus.

So yeah, family-man sort of background is a factor. Does it blind them to some talent? Sure. But I think it's not top of the list. I think it's the second tier of questions before really committing to go after someone hard. It's a screening question when the talent's already a given. Not a priority over talent.

Which then makes me wonder if Bavasi et al had some method to their madness around Jose Guillen... already have HGH questions around him, Mitchell report isn't out yet... perhaps they didn't want to be holding onto him, even with the intent of "let us have our draft pick and then shoo", when the Mitchell report came out...?

Oh, and GeoW, sorry but I have to laugh at the thought of the M's having anything like leverage.

The M's best package is very easy for the Twins to say no to. If the Twins can pass on what the Red Sox have to offer, then they're not going to go anywhere else. The only way the M's would ever have ANYthing like leverage is if they offered Ichiro for Santana straight up. (And then survived the subsequent rioting in the streets, and the earth swallowing Safeco Field whole.) Call that a false choice if you want, but really, it's that extreme. The M's offerings are nowhere near what the Sox would offer.

And the O's are famous for starting trade discussion, then asking for the world, as someone else pointed out recently. So there's no leverage to be had; the O's would just escalate to something ridiculous, and then back out, claiming "no one is respecting these guys' value". From today's stories, and the O's attitude, the M's would be very lucky to get bedard for AJ+Morrow+1.

If we have any realistic shot at getting Santana, I say the team should take it. I wouldn't say the same thing about Bedard. I'm glad those teams aren't asking about Jeff Clement, because I think he's going to be a solid power hitter from the left side for the M's.

Bruce -- the Jays/Giants trade is not for both Cain and Lincecum, it's one or the other, both pitchers have been discussed. Otherwise I agree, that would be absolute highway robbery, the kind of trade that gets objected to in fantasy leagues (but then again, the leagues I've been in basically every deal is objected to).

-K -- no, you see I got your point but the thing is MacLaren makes it SOUND like he's impressed with the guy only because he cares about his family, he doesn't say anything about his pitching ability. As always what you don't say, says as much as what you do say. And again, it's just another reason why I feel that John MacLaren is bleeping idiot.

Guillen's gone because he did what he's done his other 8 stops - quickly wore out his welcome. The big mouth, the jabs at Bavasi and McLaren in the press,the treatment of AJ and other stuff we'll probably never know. Now he's off to KC with his bag of tricks to infect another clubhouse. I feel bad for Hillman especially being a rookie MLB manager. Guillen is going to be a major pain in his ass.

The team site is reporting Bavasi is prepared to offer 4 years $40+ million to Kuroda. Fantastic, we get two watch two Washburn's (two #4 starters) pitch every 5 days this year.

byebye,
My bad. The article does indeed say Matt Cain "or" not "and" Tim Lincecum.
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FWIW, on the earlier discussion comparing Bedard to Santana. Here is a quick comparison of the numbers.
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Bedard's career record 40-34; 2007 WHIP=1.09, ERA=3.16; career WHIP 1.34, ERA=3.86
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Santana's career record 93-44; 2007 WHIP=1.09, ERA=3.33; career WHIP=1.07, career ERA=3.22; 2004 Cy Young winner

On the MLB.Com web site (sorry, don't know how to create a link) McLaaren states in an article written about his pross conference that Ichro will steal 80 bases an that he expects Sexson will hit 40 hrs. He expects the loss of Guillen's power to be made up by Sexson and that will take the pressure of Jones. Wow, that is some kind of dreaming.

Ricofoy - I'd really want to hear Geoff's opinion on that. I never got the impression from Geoff's articles, or other press last year, that Jose Guillen was ever bad in the clubhouse. In fact, last year's articles made it sound like Guillen and Jones had exactly the right relationship between vet and newbie.

byebyeIbanez - McLaren quote from mlb.com article: "It shows what kind of person he is. We know he's a bulldog, he's a control guy, fierce competitor, and we like his ability. We've had him well-scouted, but this shows the other side of him. He cares about his family, and he's got great character." So it's not all about family. As I said above, it's a secondary thing.

Attempt at mlb link:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071205&content_id=2318692&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

Um did Bavasi go to Venezuala instead of McLaren?
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I haven't heard a peep today on any kind of rumors or talk. In fact, it's like all GMs left town today.
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Geoff you're killing me...I need some news trickle my way SOON!
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What's up today?

Ricofoy - Your animosity toward Guillen is bordering on pathological. There was absolutely nothing wrong with his conduct in the clubhouse last year. He was exactly what we needed (and still do). He was the third best player on the field and the best in the clubhouse. I will be shocked and amazed if Adam Jones can put up anywhere near those numbers this year, no matter where he plays. I don't defend Jose's apparent steroid use (which was in 2005), but I bet we find out soon that he had a lot of company in that department. Anyway, he's gone, but I wish him well. He hasn't caused any problems in any clubhouse since 2004. Your characterization of him is way out of date.

I read McLaren's comments on Kuroda's family very differently than some others. The way I read them, him being a family man might actually mean he would choose Seattle over LA. Think Kenji Johjima here, who is from a rural background and was not impressed by the bright lights of NY. He wanted a nice place for his family and quality of life, not the front page of the tabloids. A single guy who wants to make the Hollywood scene would not bode well for our chances here in the cultural wilderness.

According to ESPN the O's are in talks with the Cubs to trade Brain Roberts. Maybe they do that after Lopez is included in the deal for Bedard.

Rotation:
#1 Bedard

#2 Felix

#3 Jamie Moyer (who would love to stay in Seattle during the season and who goes 6-7 innings deep every game with a 4.50 ERA)

#4 Jeff Weaver ($2-$3M upfront with incentives up to $6-$8M)

#5 Brandon Morrow (who ABSOLUTELY should not be traded and who should be in winter ball--with a coach--learning how to be a starter)....If Tim L. can do it with the Giants, Brandon can. (Weren't they both Pac-10 starters at the same time?)

If the M's do indeed lose both Balenetein and Jones, then Broussard would be a stop gap outfielder until the M's could find someone. Don't forget he has played in the outfield for us and played both outfield corner positions in Cleveland. I wouldn't mind having another lefty power bat in the lineup, especially if I ended up adding a pitcher like Santana or Bedard!

CF-Ichiro
DH-Vidro
LF-Ibanez
1B-Sexson
RF-Broussard
3B-Beltre
C-Johjima
2B-Lopez
SS-Betancourt

Ace-Santana/Bedard
P-Hernandez
P-Batista
P-Washburn
P-Rowland-Smith/Kuroda

Not bad!