i think bedard is really good. but I think santana is a once in a lifetime guy that you trade the farm for. Not to mention the fact that as a fellow venezulean he could come in and mentor an emerging ace in Felix and teach him a workout or two. I know that I'm just dreaming, because the m's would never do something like that.

I havent looked at the numbers, but Santana didn't look that impressive to me last season. I don't want to go after a guy that could be on the downside of his career. Or maybe its because I saw too many Moyer changeups and would be content if I never saw one again.

Do any of you guys think that a deal for Bedard w/out Jones or Marrow could get done? I dono If I can buy into that one.

Affeldt Anyone? He's from Spokane, and he's very involved in the community in the offseason. I know he has at least some interest in joining the M's. Geoff, if they let Sherrill go (or even if they don't) do you see the M's pursuing him?

Zach C,

If Santana, a 28 year old pitcher that had a 3.33 ERA after posting ERA's of 2.77,2.87,2.61,3.07,2.99 the previous 5 years is considered by you to be on the downside of his career I can't imagine there is any pitcher that you consider a sure thing...

I would rather have one stud pitcher for $20 million than have 2 mediocre ones (Washburn, Silva) make that combined.

Sherrill should keep his #52. He is a much better pitcher and deserves to keep it.

Assuming that we get Bedard in a trade, our #1/2 of Felix and Bedard will make ~$4 mill in 2008 but our 3/4/5 will earn ~$30 mill... HUH?? And now that 3/4/5 money may preclude us from going after a guy who actually deserves that type of money in Santana.

Well, at least the good news is that we have Wash and Batista locked up for 2 more yrs and Silva for 4. WHA??

This is just BB being BB. Filling up his roster with mediocre, past their prime, overpriced vets. That is how a team with one of the highest payrolls in baseball remains unable to play with the big boys. Just when contract disasters like Sexson and Vidro are about to come off the books, we add another. I may not be a baseball exec, but this move just doesn't make sense to me. We are not any better off for 2008, or any closer to surpassing the Angels.

Hey Geoff, do you have any Morrow SP stats from the Winter Leagues?

Jeff isn't arguing that Towers is good. In fact, he said he'd be worse. He's arguing that towers will cost ~1 million per year and projects to roughly the same mediocrity as Silva, so why spend the extra million AND add the 3 extra years commitment at said 11 million. That's where it is a stupid decision. No one wants Towers. What we want is for the Mariners to use their money in logical ways. An ERA+ difference of about 5 (which is the projected difference between Towers and Silva) is not worth 47 million dollars more. If that were the case, Johan Santana would make about 88 million dollars in 2009 alone. That's the problem everyone has with this deal, and why Towers is mentioned so frequently as someone that the Mariners could have gotten almost for free who is supposed to be only slightly worse than Silva.

Anyone who actually watched Josh Towers pitch last year saw a bad pitcher. He's not a victim of XFIP or any fantasy stat. The guy's stuff wasn't there last year. Silva as a #4 starter is superior to Towers.

Resin - No, his results were superior to Towers'. There's a difference between results and skill. Anytime you start evaluating a player by results, rather than by skill, you begin to leave the realm of objectivity.

Trade anyone for Bedard except Morrow...trade Batista back to the NL for prospects.
Rotation:
Bedard, Feix, Washburn, Silva, Morrow...
If you trade Jones, you'll need a out fielder, one with left handed power...Maybe Jr.

I have concern that Silva's trying to develop a split-finger fastball, as reported. That's an awful pitch for a starter to throw. It'll ruin your arm pretty quickly if thrown too often.

J.J. had to back off his after it was starting to damage his arm in spring training. And he's just a reliever.

I will say one thing about the Seattle Mariners, they sure do drive me to drink. At some point in the future when I need a new liver, I plan to file a lawsuit to get them to foot the bill. 48 million dollars for Carlos Silva. . . Let's make it a perfect off-season and trade the entire farm for like two years of Bedard. Yeah, 'cause this ball club is just one pitcher away from the World Series. . . unreal.

Texas is on the verge of signing Eddie Guardado to be their closer. So, how would you guys feel if BB made a move like that?

Texas is also eyeing a starter after just trading one to the Reds. They're looking at Bartolo Colon, Jason Jennings, Josh Towers, Mark Hendrickson and Mike Maroth. All guys BB passed on.

BTW, Andy MacPhail says now he's no longer listening to offers for Bedard, per MLB.com. May be just GM-speak. But, I hope it's true.

Also, add Dickey to the mix of guys battling for the 5th spot.

If the past is any indication, Dickey will make a few appearances, then spend the rest of the season on the DL until September callups. That's when he will recover, as if by miracle, from whatever made-up ailment he was suffering from. Bavasi has found a loophole in the "Rule 5" rules, and I'm sure he'll be using it again.

Adam, please keep fantasy baseball out of a real baseball discussion. There is more to baseball players than fantasy, hit points, and "skills." You have to account for actual human qualities, since this game is played by humans. Toughness, makeup, professionalism, physical differences (hello, Jesse "the blister" Foppert), mental weakness, addictions, unstable family life, I could go on and on. All of these things could potentially make more of a difference than unreliable infield defense "statistics" (they really aren't valid statistics, because they are subjective and don't take management decisions into account) or Raul versus Adam in left field.

It's not about objectivity, it's about reality. Break from reality, and you're right there with Bill James when he advised the Red Sox that there was no difference between Brad Fullmer and David Ortiz. You have to actually watch players with "similar skills" (on paper) play the game to know the difference. That's the only way to avoid such a bizarre and potentially disastrous conclusion. Luckily, for them, the Red Sox made the correct choice.

Adam - While I mostly agree with you about the difference between results-based analysis and skills-based analysis, relying on stats-based "skills analysis" can be overplayed. Even though I agree that, generally-speaking, skills (usually measured by peripheral, pitcher-controlled stats) are a better predictor of future performance than results, when bad result piles on bad result ad infinitum, something more than skill and luck is in play. These guys aren't robots. There is a mental side to the game that can't be ignored and definitely plays are role in the results that are achieved. What is it Yogi used to say? Something like "Baseball is 90% physical. The other half is mental." Whatever we may think about skills vs. results in terms of predictive analysis, in the end, results matter, and bad results piled on top of each other repetitively tell me that something more than bad luck - something immeasurably and even intangible - is in play.

Just because we can't measure something doesn't mean we should ignore it. People who see a guy pitch everyday - like Geoff with Towers two years ago, or even the SABR stats-rejecting traditional scouts who get guys like Towers non-tendered - sometimes have a better intuitive feel for that immeasurable side of the game that *does* play a part in "bad results." Imprecise? Absolutely. But part of the game, and not something to be ignored.

It looks like the Orioles won't trade Bedard to the M's unless the deal includes Jones and Morrow. Bavasi says he's unlikely to trade Morrow. If that's the case, let's hope Morrow, in 2-3 years, can become the pitcher Bedard is now (or better). I guess these are the chances you take when dealing with "prospects."

On another note, the thought of bringing Griffey back here to play anything but DH doesn't make much sense to me. I'd rather see Jones and Balentin (or both) playing in the OF rather than an aging Jr. and Ibanez.

Adam we all know you parrot what 2 blogs write down.
Now you put words in my mouth. I agree, Scouting is analysis by skill and talent, and fantasy stats are "results" based which as you stated, does indeed make one leave the realm of reality. I'm glad we finally agree on something.

I agree that Ibanez & Jr. would be an aging outfield..so trade Ibanaz too...then bring up who ever you have left. Would you rather have Ibanaz or Jr. if you had to pick one?
Jr's numbers in 07
AVG .277 | HR 30 | RBI 93 | OBP .372 | SLG .496
Plus the X factor is the enthusiasm he would bring to the team. Maybe take some of the spotlight/pressure off guys like Sexson, Beltre, ect.(and start selling out Safeco again). Plus, in an election year, maybe we could get Jr & the Moose to run for president again:-)

Bottom line, with our payroll, the team is commited to being competitive, this year...I could care less about tacoma's record, so trade the whole team if it the M's better now. The whole reason you develope prospects is so you can ship them off to teams with cheap owners for proven stars . Maybe if we act a little more like the Yankees, Angels, & Red Sox, we may start to show up in the post season like them too. Gut the farm!

Also, Adam you ask why I believe Seattle will have a better infield than Minnesota next year, they of the greater "zone range".

Really, the question is will Minnesota even have a better infield in '08. Three-fourths is new from a year ago. Mike Lamb at 3B replaces Punto, Adam Everett replaces Bartlett at SS, Brandon Phillips replaced Castillo at 2B mid-season. Only Morneau remains from a year ago.

Did you know that? So, what reason do you have for believing they'll be a better "zone range" group from last year, much less better than the Mariners? What does your crystal ball say?

Defensively, I'll put our four up against their four any day.

Sign Freddy Garcia and Jason Jennings.

I hate this new format. The "captcha" feature is a joke.

Lance - If we want to analyze whether the Silva will be helped or hurt by the Mariner infield in 2008, the 2008 Twins have no part in that analysis. What's the point of speculating what the Twins infield will do next year? Silva won't pitch in front of them.

We do know how he performed in front of the Twins' 2007 infield. And since the analysis is whether he'll be better or worse than he was, we obviously have to compare the 2007 Twins, where Silva has performed to date, with the 2008 Mariners, where he will perform. Since the Mariner infield will likely remain intact, we can compare the 2007 Twins and the 2007 Mariners to get an idea of whether Silva will be better or worse.

And no, I didn't know that Brandon Phillips replaced Castillo at 2b at mid-season. Here I was thinking Phillips was playing for the Reds...

And to all re: skills vs. "intangibles." I'm not trying to ignore intangibles. I'm sure there's a perfectly good reason why ML teams pay David Eckstein millions of dollars. But how do you measure it? How do you predict a player's output by examining his intangibles?

Shoot, Jose Guillen's "intangibles" were of the sort that we probably could have, and should have, predicted that he would have been a distraction to the team. He wasn't. Go figure.

All teams obviously engage in predictive analysis. But are intangibles the more reliable facet of a player's package? Should GMs really downplay a player's declining numbers because he hustles and is a good teammate? And if so, what's the objective justification?

Again, I'm not scoffing at intangibles. I would just hope that a competent talent evaluator would put a player's skill set far above intangibles when engaging in predicitive analysis. Because if he's playing the numbers, that evaluator should rely on the hard numbers rather than on a "gut feeling."

In that light, I never argued that the Mariners should have signed Towers, or that he's better than Silva. The point, for the last time, is that there is no logical reason why Silva should get 48 million when there are other pitchers available who can provide much of the same production as Silva, for a fraction of the cost.

Oh, and for the record, even though this is completely besides the point, Adam Everett might just be the best defender in the game, so the Twins infield could very well be a lot better in 2008.

Im starting to think that the Ms won't be able to put a deal together for Bedard so im gonna start talking about the 5th spot in the rotation.

I like Baek. The Ms just seem to win with him on the mound, hes young and will give us some solid innings. If he can avoid the big innings that always seem to get him, he could have a great year for us.

I also would like to see what the new pitching coach can do with Ramirez, but hope is about all I have in that area.

The reason I don't like Marrow in the 5th spot is his role last season was so important to our wins. We still need him in that 8th inning.

Putz
Marrow
Lowe
sherril
Green
and that other lefty

That's solid!

As a long time Mariner fan I would like to know what is the most money Seattle has ever paid a pitcher?

Coming from a lifelong Os fan, we are not (I hope) going to trade Bedard if BOTH Jones and Murrow (sp?) are not included. You can keep the catching prospect...we have a ringer in our first round pick. Bedard with Hernandez gets you three wins in a shortened 5 game first round playoff. My Os are going nowhere! Good trade for both teams. If you guys don't make the playoffs, trade Bedard for prospects. Remember, he led the league in SOs and was in the running for the CY before getting hurt. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that!

My bad. I meant Branden Harris, not Phillips. Although, he wasn't the one who replaced Castillo mid-season, either, but came over in the November deal with TB. Suffice it to stay aside from Morneau the Twins will have a new infield for 2007. So, somebody overthere must not have been too impressed by their 2007 "zone range".

You say that Morrow...barring a trade...looks to be the 5th starter. Where does that leave Rowland-Smith? Wouldn't he be a better choice for the 5th spot because he's left handed?

Here's a thought. Are the M's good enough with the addition of Silva and the return of Houdini Ramirez, to beat the Angels, much less the Red Sox?

Morrow is going to lose most of his remaining confidence when he struggles to get Major League hitters out with 1 pitch. After they see his straight fastball, after the 4th inning, it's going to be ugly. The player movement decisions mandated by Bavasi are flawed. Bavasi is making a decision based on Brandon's performance in an intructional league, and completely ignoring Morrow's lack of developed secondary pitches. Morrow has a splitter with potential, but it needs work. A year in Tacoma would be beneficial to the long term future of Morrow, yet again we see bad decisions by a poorly run front office regime.

Resin,
I agree that the Mariners are going the wrong way in how they are developing Morrow. He really should have been in the Minors last year working on a secondary pitch and learning to be a starter. I don't want to see him as the long reliever on the Mariners in 2008 either. Let him start in Tacoma where he really belongs.

Longviewfan,

Carlos Silva is the highest paid Mariner pitcher ever. Jarrod Washburn is # 2 I believe, and both hover around .500 for their careers. It makes me scratch my head. The only saving grace is that Silva is a ground ball pitcher who could succeed at Safeco, but we will have to wait and see.