Good assessment of the Mariners' status vis-a-vis the Angels. There always is danger, though, in giving up a big package of players for a pitcher---especially one carrying a big, multiyear contract. In a worst case, the Mariners could trade Jones, Clement and Feirabend, for instance, and then see Santana go down with a bad arm one game or one year later. Always better to build a pitching staff from within---pitchers are always overvalued on the trade or free-agent market---and fill position-player holes via trades or free-agent signings, if the farm system is not producing enough talent to fill those holes.

Hard to understand why the Mariners paid Guillen to leave. A token offer, at his option price, would have been turned down in any case and the Mariners then would have received a high draft choice when he signed elsewhere. Now they get nothing in return. An asset wasted.

You are correct that Ibanez is now a defensive liability in the outfield. Rationality--not always the Mariners' strong suit--would dictate the trade of Ibanez. He has value now he will never have again. Solid talent could be received in return.

Sexson has to go---even if the Mariners have to eat most of his contract---in return for decent prospects. Vidro, too, will never have higher value than he has now. He has no power, hits into double plays, and cannot play in the field.
Broussard can play first base. Ibanez, if not traded, can DH. If he is gone, Morse, Clement, Balentien could alternate at DH. Or another DH could be secured at moderate price.

A roll-the-dice deal for Santana could indeed make a real difference in 2008. But, if he did not perform as expected or got hurt, the young players to be traded for him could be stars in the league for another 10 years.

Sign the Japanese pitcher. Baek, Morrow, Rowland-Smith, Feirabend can compete for the fifth-starter role. Put Jones into the lineup now and, when they are ready, Clement and Balentien as well. They all bring energy to the lineup.

I agree Geoff, the combination of Santana and Hernandez would be wonderful. I definitely think the Mariners need to dive head first into these trade talks with the Twins and be very serious about making the move. If we can somehow hold on to Jones or Balentien and Phillipe Aumont then I'm happy. As long as we don't give up Aumont and one of the outfielders I would pull the trigger every time.

I wonder if the Twins would be interested in a player like Ibanez in the deal instead of Jones. Or maybe you could offer Ichiro for Santana straight up? I would do that in a heartbeat and tell the owner to get a grip on himself. Maybe Ichiro WAS the face of this team (which is sad) but now Santana and Hernandez with Jones and Beltre, etc. and etc. can be that face. Maybe a World Series title can be that face.

Geoff for GM! I would sign Jose Guillen as quickly as possible and offer Adam Jones and some others for Santana. However, remembering that one of Bavasi's first moves was to get rid of Carlos Guillen (for nobody) to replace him with (the attemped) aging Visquel and eventually (the actual) Aurilia...I wouldn't count on such a deal taking place. Ever since the arrival of Bavasi, I cringe at nearly everthing we do. Worse...I cringe at everything we DON'T do. (I do understand the irony in my desire to resign Jose Guillen, but an occasional decent free agent signing does not refute his miserable trade record.)

Let's get real. These type of dicussions go on every year at this time. Last year, Zito. The year or two before, it was Tejada. The M's management loves it - makes it sound as if they were seriously in discussions to get top talent.

But at the end of the day we get happy go lucky guys like Washburn, who make millions and leave games in the 4th or 5th inning with a smile on their face.

You're right Geoff, a GOOD organization indeed doesn't sit on their hands while your competitors get what they need done.

But then again, we're stuck with OUR organization as in Horacio for Soriano, lol. The very same organization that won't cut Ramirez, who had one of the worst ERA'S ever w/ that many innings. The same organization that thinks Raul can hit lefties and play the spacious Safeco left field. The same one that thinks its okay to have an entire line up that can't draw a walk or have a firstbaseman that hits BELOW the Mendoza line. The same one that thinks McLaren made enough good decisions (puhhhh-leeeze) to "earn" ANOTHER year...sigh

Troubling times may be ahead. There's always hope though...I guess

The M's now have some chips that would allow the Twins to listen to Seattle. Having Balentien, whose skills are just a notch below Jones, with more power, would lessen the sting of trading AJ. Still, it would also take two high-ceiling starters. Morrow for sure. And, probably Chris Tillman. Feierabend isn't going to impress anybody, other than as a throw in. So, they'd have to start with Jones, Morrow, and Tillman. And, probably a reliever.
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Having Aumont, and a few other kids (Tony Butler, Juan Ramirez, a few others) will lessen the blow of losing Tillman. Aumont has to complete a full year from his being drafted before the rules allow him to be traded, so he can't be dealt right now, anyway.
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But, first, Santana would have to sign a long-term deal before you mortage the farm for him. I'm not confident that'll happen. If the Twins don't re-sign him, and they probably won't, he'll simply become a FA, anyway. Do you give up so much for one "Year of the Johan"? I wouldn't.
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Also, if Felix becomes the next Johan Santana, you'll have to do a similar contract with him (think 7 to 10 years, $140+ minimum). Seattle has money, but I don't think they have THAT much money. Not for two guys. What do you pay the other 23?
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Besides, what the Yankees want the Yankees usually get. Unless there's another team that has $103 mil. to throw away for a MOTR starter.

I love the idea of having Santana atop our rotation - but isn't there a way to egt him WITHOUT giving up Jones? Balentien, Clement and Morrow should be enough to satasfy ANY trade worth doing. I mean seriously - HOW many times do you hear of a deal - even for a super-star - that nets 3 QUALITY prospects like that? These guys are major leaguers waiting to happen - all of them have LOAD of talent and upside - why wouldn't that be enough?

I just can't see morgaging our future star for one who is already half-way through his career. Even if it is Santana - we need a group of young players to TAKE OVER for the likes of Ibanez, and Ichiro, and Johjima - all of whom (and Ibanez especially), might not be around for this great run with Santana atop our rotation for long.

I'd give almost anything for Santana - but leave Jonesie out of it.

I am not as despondent or desperate as others over the Angels' moves. Sure, it will be another story if they get Cabrera. In that event, next year will be a lost cause. But there has been reams written on other websites about the contract the Angels gave Hunter, and how he will be less than replacement level player two years into this five year deal. Add in the fact that the Angels are going to have to give up a lot to get Cabrera, and I don't agree that this will set up the Angels for years to come.

Kevin O., you're exactly right. Two years ago it was Kevin Millwood and A.J. Burnett. Fans were plugging BOTH guys into there own team's starting rotation, and were filled with venom if their team didn't get either one.
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Last year, it was Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito, and Daisuke Matzusaka. Two of those guys "led" their team to 4th and last place finished.
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The Jays came in 3rd with Burnett, but they always come in 3rd. Texas finished last with Millwood.
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And, we're just speaking starting pitchers here.
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Granted Santana is a great pitcher. A proven track record that easily makes him a couple of notches above those five, at least. But, in the end what did it get those other five teams who overpaid terribly to make a big splash? Once the water calmed they were no better off than they were before, probably worse.
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And, what has it gotten the Twins by having Santana and all his great seasons?
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But, it is the Hot Stove season. Fun to talk about, but that's it. It has no bearing on who's going to win the WS (even Boston's championship had little to do with Dice-K as it did with the other 24 guys).
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My take, anyway.

Trading Adam Jones for one year of Johan Santana? Not interested. There's no guarantee he'd sign here as a free agent once he's eligible, and if we think we can sign him then why not just wait a year and sign him? Trading a top prospect for a one-year rental almost never makes sense.

And why is the AL Wsst "all about pitching"? We already hav a park that suppresses run scoring; we could run a league-average pitching staff out there as long as we put a good defense behind them (that means getting Raul off the field) and focus on getting the best bats we can in the lineup.

Who is this "Adam?" I'm the founder of the "Free Adam Jones" club, just so we are clear.

As for a Santana deal, I've seen nothing to suggest that Santana is going to allow teams a window for negotiating a new contract. The only team that he'll negotiate with is the Twins.

So, there is no way I give up Adam Jones for one year of Santana. I say wait until after the 2008 season, when Richie Sexson's contract comes off the payroll, and go heavy after Santana as a FA. But let's not give up AJ for one year of Johan.

Further, I'm ambivalent toward Kuroda. Japanese starters don't have a great track record in the States, he's already 33, and his stuff isn't that good. He's a #4 starter, perhaps a #3 at best. Maybe just a little bit better than Washburn.

I'd like to see Wlad, Jose Lopez, Clement, and Sherrill as prime trade bait for a good young arm (one of the Tampa pitchers? Ian Snell?). I'd like to see us sign Geoff Jenkins. I'd love to ship Richie Sexson off for nothing.

This team is going to regress in 2008, mark my words. Let's get younger and more talented.

Hey Geoff -

What do you think about sending Jones, Lopez, and Morrow to the Twins for Santana (btw - the contract extension is a given on that one, folks... no such things as trading for one year of Johan)? Put Balentien in right, sign Geoff Jenkins to play left (MUCH cheaper than Guillen, and LH to boot), and put a cheap Tadahito Iguchi in at second. The M's can afford that... particularly if they save $10MM by trading Sexson ($6.5MM) and releasing/trading Broussard ($3.5MM).

At that point, sign Kuroda if you want... I'd still rather have Colon on an incentive-laden one-year deal with an option or two.

...not to mention the $30MM teams are getting each year from MLB.com, either. Forgot to mention that one. Finances are not an issue, particularly for a team that - once again - needs to improve *now*.

Welcome back, Geoff!

Isn't the Colosseum a lot smaller than you expected?

would the mariners make the playoffs if they

A, add kuroda, fukadome, silva

B, add kuroda, fukadome, DTrain

C, add santanna

i would perfer option B, get better defensively move Raul, fierband, and ryan rowland smith( or whatever it takes to get dtarin, maybe broussard,willie,lopez, morse, reed whatever peices are needed) to get dtain the cheaper and more used version of santanna.

the thing about Dtrain is that he yet to play for a real contendeder in a pitchers park with a great defense and run support. i think he could make vast improvements with a new team a bring back the dtrain we know

espn say's that santanna will take $112 million dollars and the farm to get him

the mariners have taken so long to get the farm looking better and now just turn around and deplete it for one man with no guarntees

i would look for dtain kuroda and fukadome and the mariners in playoffs next year

thats my call and i am sticking to it

overall the mariners need to start acting before the angels look like the yankees and we look like baltimore and not boston

$6.5MM from Sexson above, btw, is what I'm assuming the M's would get... obviously not the value of his contract.

D-Train scares me a bit... I've never been confident in his ability to produce, and his inconsistency hasn't done anything to reassure me there.

For Santana on a long term contract, I'd give up the following: ONE of either Morrow, Clement, or Jones, PLUS ONE of the following: Feierabend, Mickolio, or Lopez; PLUS their choice of any eligible AA or A player; BUT the Twins must take either Sexson or Vidro AND one of the White pitchers.

Shane,

1) the Mariners FO will not trade Ibanez because they see him as the face of the franchise.
2) Even if they did, you couldn't possibly expect the Marlins to accept your trade offer of Ibanez and a few fringe starters and/or Mariners bench players for Dontrelle.

Although I believe Willis would be an even worse pitcher in the American League than he's been in the NL, he still has value to the Marlins, and to other clubs in a pitching-starved market. They're not going to take the M's castoffs or worthless players for something of value.

Morrow, Clement and Jones for Santana for 1 year is insane. Three potential top tier players for 1? I prefer to develop these guys and watch them grow, rather than be strung along, for a year with Santana. Then, after another 80-some victory year, he finds a better deal, financially and competitively, and we are the suckers again.

If this is the alternative, I would rather sit on my hands!

Man, if Ibanez is the face of the franchise.

I remember the days when guys like Griff, Arod, Gar and Bone were "faces of the franchise"

I think this is overblown as Raul is not exactly all over our marketing campaigns like the other guys were.

Raul has never been anything more than a "nice player" even in his career year in 2005.

Definitely not the guy you anoint as the cornerstone of the franchise.

Geoff-

I love the idea in theory, but we can't mortgage the future for one year of Cy Young. Santana won't negotiate a long-term deal with anyone with the Twins at this point. Am I wrong about that?

It's one thing to negotiate the trade, it's a whole other thing to negotiate a long-term contract with baseball's best, convincing him he wants to spend 5 or 7 years someplace he doesn't even know.

Good to have you/your blog back. I agree that Santana is an impact pitcher who could give Seattle "street cred" in the AL West. Problem is: would Santana ever WANT to come to Seattle? His current team is kind of the Mid-West version of the Ms but with more playoff appearances (but do we have a better looking ballpark? You bet! Yea! We win!). Plus, LAA, like it or not, is positioning itself NOW for 2008. You just know the Garland deal was done with yet another big trade in mind to improve the Halos. How often do we see Bavasi make chess-like moves?

Thus far, all I read in the paper or on-line has to do with signings OTHER teams are completing. The "impact" studs want a WS ring NOW, so, they opt for big market, major exposure teams like NYY, Boston and, yes, LAA while the Ms take a couple of months to MAYBE sign a #3 or 4 Japanese pitcher. That said, despite all the conjecture of what it would take to lure Minnesota into trading Santana to the Ms, I doubt he really wants to come to Seattle, a less successful Minnesota - I'm just sayin'....don't bite my head off - other players have turned down Seattle offers because it was, well, just too far away from whatever. But that's part of Bavasi's job - to convince top talent to come here and STAY here. The Ms' owners and FO do not have the collective vision or imagination to truly improve this team to playoff status, and, with the way LAA is going, if the Ms don't win their Division, forget the wild card what with Cleveland, Detroit, NYY, Boston, etc. Happy December meetings!

we should trade adam jones, lopez and r. sexton and 7million to san fran for linculm. then get fukadome as a free agent

Stunned isn't the word I would use if Seattle fails to become a serious contender for Santana. This front office has a history of doing nothing to really energize the fan base when it really counted. I would be stunned beyond words if Seattle actually did what they needed to to get Santana. But in my view, if they want to contend, this is a must-have guy. I think Felix and Santana would feed off of one another, and two dynamic arms are pretty much all it takes to make a serious run at the playoffs and even the World Series - the Diamondbacks proved that with Johnson and Schilling. In my view, this is one of those trades where you make the Twins and then Santana an offer they can't refuse.
Seriously ... what is there to lose? We've been losers for too long, and if the whole thing somehow backfired, at least we went down fighting.
But I don't think it would backfire. I don't think it would at all. It would absolutely electrify the Northwest, and that would be wonderful.

Welcome back!!! Missed you and the bboard.
Not much original to say that hasn't already been said, but my typically wild hot-stove stab in the dark would be:

- Jones, Morrow, Clement and Beltre for Santana
- Santana gets convinced to waive the no-trade b/c he can mentor Felix, be big fish in a small pond, feast on Oakland and Texas for 1/6th of the season, work with Stottlemyre as a coach
- Santana immediately gets offered 20m/7yrs, plus incentives for all-star, cy young, postseason, complete games
- Bring up Balentien to replace Jones
- Sign Miguel Tejada to replace Beltre
- Sign Kuroda from Japan as a #4 (can't get Fukudome, he re-upped with his japanese team, did he not?)
- RRS in the 5th spot

I think my first line above works because from Minnesota's p.o.v.:

- Jones replaces Torii
- Morrow fills a pitching slot (4th or 5th?)
- Beltre is an instant upgrade over Punto, esp. defensively
- Clement learns from Mauer and plugs in as a backup catcher for at least 2 or 3 years

But it's all typical offseason dreamin'. I of course know Bavasi will go do something stupid like Aumont for Elijah Dukes, or go re-sign Freddy Garcia or somedamnthing.

The optimist in me says that the M's have been so quiet in pre-winter-meeting rumors b/c several F.O. guys plus McLaren were in Japan to go get Kuroda. The realist in me says Bavasi will come out sounding just as bewildered as he did from last year's winter meetings, when he likely signed Horacio Ramirez b/c he thought he was getting Manny Ramirez. I have to agree with John, I'll be stunned if we get Santana.

Again, welcome back, Geoff!

Johan I'm glad you brought this out about the EXTRA $30M MLB.com is sending to EACH MLB team this year.

MLB brought in record revenue of $6.075 BILLION dollars this past season!!!

Seattle sent Weaver ($9.5M) & Guillen ($6M) packing. Call me nuts but I really think that's what it will take to sign BOTH Kuroda & Fukodome! Both these players accomodates Seattle's needs: Pitching and another power LHB for RF.

I really liked Guillen's bat in the lineup this year, but Fukodome would be a GREAT goldglove and power hitting replacement for us.

Now, regarding Santana...I say DO IT!

And by the way, every baseball analyst out there totally expects that any team that ends up neg with Santana will DEMAND a 48-72 hour window to lock him up longterm. THERE IS NO WAY any MLB team will send top players/prospects for Santana for a 1yr rental player. If the team can't land a longterm contract, he will go back to the Twins to work another deal with another team.

Several on the board were pushing to WAIT until next offseason. There is 5-6 top SPs out there on the market next offseason. THE PROBLEM with that? Look at Zambrano this offseason, when he was going to be the ONLY top SP out there...he chose to sign a discounted contract with the Cubbies! We can't WAIT and see "if" these TOR SPs "might" be FA's next offseason, because I'd bet only 1 MAYBE 2 hit Free Agency while the rest either sign extensions OR get traded to a new team that sign them to a longterm extension.

So, that's why the M's HAVE to be involved in either Santana/Peavy/Bedard trade NOW!

Thanks Jordan for bringing out about the EXTRA $30M MLB.com will be sending to EACH MLB team! MLB had record revenue of $6.075 BILLION dollars this past season!!!

NOW here's my take "if" I were the Ms GM this offseason...for what it's worth:

1. Take the $9.5M from Weaver's contract, and $6M from Guillen and go land Kuroda AND Fukodome. Call me nuts, but I just have a "feeling" Seattle will be able to pick BOTH guys up for $16M total this year.

2. Trade Jones (preferably Wlad B.), Clement & Morrow for Santana, AND give him the 6yr $25M/yr $150M contract that will start AFTER the 2008 season. Remember we'd have him for $13M in change in 2008, so we'd actually have him for 7 years.

Take the $30M that Seattle gets from MLB.com this offseason, and use $13M to pay Santana's 2008 salary, and give the remaining wad of $17M as a signing bonus that will offset the 6yr contract.

NOW, remember starting in 2009 we free up the following salaries:

- Sexsons $14M
- Ibanez $5.5M
- Vidro $6.5M (our portion)
- Johjima $5.5M

Jeeze, does that total $31.5M available NEXT offseason?! Obviously, "if" Clement is in the Santana package we will have to resign Johjima...plus when Kuroda signs & we have Ichiro and possibly Fukodome too...Seattle would be the MAJOR Japanese MLB team of choice!

Bringing in Kuroda AND Fukodome will EASILY bring in the add'l int'l revenue that will pay BOTH their salaries this year!

By paying Santana a HUGE upfront signing bonus would bring his future annual salaries down to $22M for the remainder of his contract. AND we'd still have nearly $9M available & use a "portion" of that $9M to resign Johjima with some left over!

We do those moves and the Ms are in contention for a potential WS victory in 2009...and then years beyond too. After 2009 Washburn and Beltre's contract expire, making $25M more available after 2009, so we trade Washburn to restock our farm system, and resign Beltre!

We wouldn't have to do much of any more moves over the next 3-5 years...except for "minor" tweaking here and there!!!

So with ALL that said as the Ms GM this offseason...here's my lineup/rotation:

2008 Lineup
CF Ichiro
DH/2B Vidro
3B Beltre
RF Fukodome
1B Sexson (Yes we're stuck, but I do believe he will have a 38HR+ Year in his walk year)
LF/DH Ibanez (if not traded)
C Johjima
2B Lopez
SS Yuni

2008 Rotation
Santana
Felix
Kuroda
Washburn
Batista

2008 Bullpen
Just like in 2007...one of the top 3 in MLB!

I have to say Geoff you and others need to get over this the M's can get Johan Santana.It's a non starter for 2 reasons that all the posts seem to be aware of but chose to discount:
1)Santana has a solid full fledged NO Trade clause.He has full veto over any trade and he doesn't have to give explaination one.
2)If Santana waives his no trade clause and approve the trade it will have to be a team capable of meeting his contract demands which are 7 yrs/126 mil or more.
If Santana is traded he is going to be NY Yankee if he's not traded he won't resign with the Twins and just go to highest bidder in '09 who in the end will be the Yankees.

The M's must be realistic and pursue as they are Japanese FA SP Kuroda and other possible FAs to consider:
Carlos Silva
for a short contract 1yr with mutual option
Andy Petitte
Bartolo Colon
Then pursue another SP/SPs via trade deals for the following:
Lowry or Sanchez of the Giants
Snell or Gorzelanny of the Pirates
J P Howell or Jackson of the Rays
If healthy Mike Young of the Pardes
Bedard of the O's.

I agree while pursuing Kuroda a major push must be made to aquire Fukodome for LF with Ibanez moving to 1stB/DH duties.
Trade Sexson/Vidro/Washburn/Lopez/Broussard along with prospects like Morse(out of options) and for the right deal Clement and Balentien.
By the right deal I mean SPs like Young or Bedard type with a young MLB 1stBman with power of the level of Ryan Howard of the Phillies etc...

Sorry for the double post, earlier...the system told me that I put in the wrong security code and didn't post??!!

"If" Ibanez was traded, and "somehow" we were able to keep Jones in the Santana package...then:
2008 Lineup
CF Ichiro
DH/2B Vidro
3B Beltre
RF Fukodome
1B Sexson (Yes we're stuck, but I do believe he will have a 38HR+ Year in his walk year)
C Johjima
LF Jones
2B Lopez
SS Yuni
2008 Rotation
Santana
Felix
Kuroda
Washburn
Batista

HUGE obsticle with Santana.... He has a no trade clause. He might want the mega-market in NY, LA, or Boston..... If thats the case, the Mariners are wasting their time going after him.

Folks, none of these teams are trading for Santans for one year...he will renegotiate to the tuen of 150 million which is not a big deal for the M's. Also, I think we have to be careful about unrealistic expectations for Adam Jones, pitching is where it is at in the division not rookie outfielders.

You guys are all dreaming of a Christmas miracle. The Ms are not going to trade Jones. Getting rid of Guillen cements that deal. Besides, when was the last time the Ms were able to compete against the Yankees, Mets and RSox for a big time player? Let these sharks bite off what they can chew over Santana. I say we go after Haren or Kazmir (if these teams are foolish enough to trade them). These are the only 2 guys worth giving up a lot. Not Willis. Not Bedard.

There is still alot on interest in Beltre out there..any word on him?

Haren is the best choice but that would cost Clement, Morrow and ? for sure.

As I understand it, Santana wants to leave the Twins because the team won't gear up to pursue a championship.

Sound familiar?

I can't see him waiving his no-trade for a gig with the Mariners.

Matt Garza for Adam Jones being rumored. The link is below. WHat do you think? I don't like it.

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2007/11/28/rosenthal-rumors-garza-to-seattle-bedard-to-the-mets-and-jason-bay/

If it will help... I'll purchase a Wii from Nintendo? It will probably sit in the closet, but I'll buy one if it will help!

I see the Miguel Carbrera thing being off with the signing of Torii Hunter.

Geez... I just noticed... more people know what's going on with the Angels than they do the Mariners. What's up with that?

Adam Jones is one of the most valuable commodities in baseball. He's a solid player at a premium defensive position earning the minimum salary and under team control for 5+ years.

There's almost nothing worth trading him.

Glad to see posters here realistic enough to know Santana is wishful thinking and nice dream but just that a dream.

I agree any Garza for Adam Jones deal will be this year's HoRam for Soriano deal by our Bonehead GM.
The Twins have nothing worth any deal that includes Jones except Santana and that's a non starter.

The M's must work within the actual trade value that they have and use their $$$$ to aquire needs.
Japanese SP Kuroda is #1 on that list and the M's must match the offer of the D-Backs and any by others if need be and see if Fukodome can be lured to the M's uni as well.
After that at the winter meetings in Nashville the M's must be actively pursuing trades with the following partners:
San Francisco
Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
For futher SP help and prospect deals to off load a couple bad contracts (Vidro/Sexson example).

Adam Jones is a rough, unpolished diamond. He has the potential of becoming - well, another Ken Griffey Jr? However, he can also under achieve and disapoint? Time will tell in this case?
Johan Santana is a proven quantity in the prime of his career! He would definitely be a #1, inning eating pitcher. A staff with Santana, Fernandez, Washburn, (possibly) Morrow, and Batista... would be phenominal! This staff... in a pitcher's ball park!?!? Take it!
Everything is dependent upon achieving a long term contract with Santana? Once this is achieved - sold and take it!

So you want to know how the Romans got 70,000 into the colosseum? Simple...they were not as fat and overweight and out of shape as the average modern era person!