Vidro, Raul, Broussard, Sexson, Batista have two to five good years left. Morse, Jones, Balentien, Clement are going to be very good for 12-15. Who do you keep? Why?

Thanks Geoff!

Great job, Geoff!

Geoff, I've been a fan of the M's ever since moving here in there second season. I have to say that this blog is the best thing to happen to baseball sports reporting in this town in quite a while. Thanks for your insight! I can hardly wait for the hot-stove league comments....

Geoff, do you get an extremely deserved vacation now, or will you be blogging through the post season?

It should be an interesting offseason. I don't thnk there's a chance in heck that Morrow will be ready in April. Or July. He's got a lot of work to do to be a starter. So how many starters will the M's go after?

I said this last week: we can only hope that Bavasi doesn't just try to fill in the holes. He needs to build a rotation. No FA starters - go get one of Tampa's young arms, and go get a Wandy Rodriguez or Jonathan Sanchez.

And I can't wait to see what they do with the Vidro-Ibanez-Broussard mess. Bavasi sure has trouble putting a roster together.

Geoff, here in Virginia we bought the MLB package so we could watch the M's as often as possible. But your blog has truly enlightened us as to the the real fabric of this team. You helped us understand personnel moves that seemed on the surface to not make sense. MLB gave us the opportunity to hear other broacasters comment on the M's. Jim Palmer is my favorite as he is a student of the game. He always read the Seattle papers before announcing a game and made comments on various issues. He always would comment about M's pitching not getting first strikes over and how difficult it is to pitch behind in the count. He taught about looking at where the catcher would hold the target and then where the pitch actually went. A lot of misses this year!
We hope for some new pitching help and a great 08. We also feel umpiring needs some major improvement. The computerized strike zones that pop up on TV indicate far too many wide strike zones. It is amazing what we can see on big screen TV! Also, we hope for no more early games at snowy sites. Thanks for all you do to make following the M's a more enjoyable experience. My wife and I wish you a restful off-season.

Geoff and ya'll, I have been reading this blog since spring training and as I return from today's game I wanted to take this opportunity to thank you. I have found this blog both entertaining and informative, often at the same time. I look forward to reading your thoughts and opinions next year (or this winter?) That being said, I was wondering if any of you could recommend a few "must read" books on baseball that would help me to understand the science and the art of the game. Once again, thank all of you for a very good year. ChC

Geoff, thanks for the best Mariner blog in town.Have a great vacation and keep us up to date on all the off season developments.

Thanks for the great blog Geoff. I think this blog really created a platform for some great discussions on the M's and I truly hope you keep it going next year.

I thought the M's were a hot and cold team who displayed overall character to compete with anyone but did not have a balanced enough offense and lack of inning eating starting pitching to compete, I never thought I would pine for the return of Jamie Moyer!

But there were some moments from Yuni's game winner against the Angels in July to Clement's walk off to Junior's emotional return. People should focus though that in thirty years this was the M's sixth best record and we should give all of them from Mac to Burke credit for making it a fun run and sparking life back into a franchise heading the wrong direction. If nothing else we have Ichiro for the rest of his career. Sayonora!

Thanks for making this season a lot more interesting and informative, Geoff! It helps when I agree with about 99% of what you say. Very even keeled and level headed writing with thoughtful insights and analysis. I think I read every one of your postings from day one. The reader comments were ok with some very good contributors but I think for the most part it was just a lot of whining (sorry guys!). You kept your cool and I know that isn't very easy on a sports blog with passionate fans foaming at the mouth and screaming for the head of the latest player in a slump. I'm looking forward to next year!

"ChC n Vancouver": If I may, I'll suggest a couple of books for you. I would start with Keith Hernandez's "Pure Baseball" which is a very in depth analysis of some of the nuances of the game. Also anything by Thomas Boswell ("Why Time Begins on Opening Day", "How Life Imitates the World Series"), Tim McCarver ("Baseball for Brain Surgeons and Other Fans"), Bob Costas ("Fair Ball: A Fan's Case for Baseball") or George Will ("Men at Work: The Craft of Baseball).

Thanks a lot, Geoff. Even when I didn't agree with you, I still enjoyed reading this blog every single day. Looking forward to next year already.

Geoff....
Thanks again for the time and the format.
I guess I will never be able to understand how playing Jones 5 times a week could have / would have disrupted the team, thus not worth trying...but adding White and Parrish to a solid, yes YOUNG bullpen needed to happen - despite these additions ruining everyone in the bullpen's known rotation schedule and in-game preparations, which ended up completely destroying the HARMONY of the bullpen and this team....and how none of this is Bavasi's or Mac's fault.....

I will say thanks Geoff, the same as everyone, for adding a wonderful and interesting element to being a Mariners fan this season. It was great to be able to listen to the unique audio clips you posted. I did not always agree with your opinions, but it ALWAYS made me think!

I pray we bring back Guillen next season. I started kind of lukewarm and hesitant to see what he was going to be like, but by this week, he has grown into my favorite M to watch day after day. This team NEEDS him again next year to continue from where they are leaving off this year. Great guy! I wish the Ms would have sold some sort of Guillen or Vidro merchandise this year, though...

Come back Guillen!!!!!

Geoff, I want to say THANKS too. The background
info has been wonderful, all your insights
have been informative as well. Looking forward to next year already...God bless.....

When you say the team overachieved this season I suppose you mean that they scored 794 runs while giving up 813 yet were 14 games over 500. All that means is that they lost more lopsided games than they won, and they were able to win some close ones. I think that is due to some horrible starts by certain pitchers who I expect will not be back and an excellent bullpen which I expect will be back. So I see no reason not to hope for an improved 2008, assuming that Bavasi can find some quality starting pitchers

thanks geoff. you set a very high standard with your blog. i've looked forward to it every day.

Geoff, thanks for all of your great hard work this season. Hope you'll have a blog entry on what you see as the future for your blog, as soon as possible.
.
Guess the young relievers went out after the game, today, and had a bonfire in centerfield, burning the hated pink backpack the rookies had to tote around during the season. I'm sorry I didn't hang around to see that.
.
Nice to see Guillen get a big hand as they took him out during the inning. However, odd Mac had Ichiro and him come out at the same time. Makes one wonder who they were really applauding for the loudest. Maybe Mac was using Ichiro to make sure it was loud.
.
Adam, I have no idea for your reasoning in that Morrow can't be ready to start in April. Or, even July, as you said. There's no reason he can't be ready by ST. Depending on his spring he'll be starting somewhere in April, be it Seattle or Tacoma. I don't understand your thinking, at all. That goes for Ryan Rowland-Smith, as well. Also, why would you expect teams to trade their best young pitchers to the Mariners? They're trying to build winners, too. What makes you think said pitchers will even be available?

For those who believe run differential is the end-all-be-all check out the Arizona Diamondbacks. Outscored plenty and look how they finished.

Thanks Geoff. Richie has to be done here I read he didn't even come out of the dugout for fan appreciation night. If that is the case then good riddance. He can take his ball and go home.

Thanks for a good season of intelligent commentary, Geoff. Your insights added a lot to my appreciation of the game and the M's. Look forward to more next year!

Geoff,
Though I rarely posted, I read this blog nearly every day. You and Bob Condotta have both done a great job of giving true fans an added level of analysis and info on our home teams with your blogs. I hope you get a raise.

P.S.
Keep us posted during the post-season and off-season!

Geoff,
Thanks for a great job running the blog and your regular, timely and informative posts. You were the best FA acquisition of the season! While I didn't post over the last few weeks (due to my disappointment with the long losing streak that ended our season and could've been handled better and avoided), I still read the blog daily.

I look forward to the next season and hope our GM doesn't set us back with his creative trades! And hoping Johnny Mac will be better prepared. Still can't help but wonder what someone like LaRussa or Girardi would've done with this team.

Thanks again. And thanks to the team for an unxpectedly exciting year.

Geoff,
i too must thank you for the good job on this blog. I read your blog daily and even tho i did not always agree with you, it was informative to see the other side. Do not think Mac and the idiot GM deserve to come back at all. Am very nervous what the Idiot will do over the off season to find some pitching.

i also hope u will post during the fall and winter on Mariner news-- for your take on it.

Mr. Bavasi is as good as he is indept:

GOOD:
1) Got out of bidding wars saving a load for bogus talent.
2) Overall, did not trade the farm for zip.
3) Weaver, all things conisidered was all he could do otherwise.
4) Guillen wound up being a real plus but WLAD is better for our future.
5) Patience with Hernandez has paid dividends.
6) Beltre/GUILLEN came through and any err in abilities not Bavasi's fault.
7)Big Signing in Putz and B-Court was brilliant.
8)VIDRO did come through.
9)Resigning Ichiro was a must and he did it.
10) BURKE was just a spunky sign for depth.
11) Hargrove as a Master Builder got us 88 games after 3 years........very good and 2nd place outright in Division.
12)Pen remained solid even if lacking experienc, more the same next season.....excellent.
13) Use or Morrow, excellent.
14) Kept fans in the seats!
15) Steady with coaches, just fine.
16) Guilllen still not a resign.
17) Fine defensive players over all.
INEPT:

1) Sexson loyalty far too much and ought to have given away contract while he could. HUGE, COSTLY ERR.
2) Vidro/Ibanez/Sexson in the way at 1st/DH/OF for fine talent.
3: Hodge Podge line up that won't Walk, Strikes Out,lacks Power, lacks speed, and cannot Sacrifice.
4) Just to conisder trading Wlad and Clement is too scary to look at.
5) Soriano for Rameriz is a joke of a trade.
6) Eval's of FA talent and what they do have is too often misjudged costing games and an huge boat of money.
7) So much money they waste it to Bavasi's influence.
8)Credibility as a person lacks.
9)Ichiro too much say down in club house.
10). False advertising.
11). McLaren will be a disaster for bench players. He will not rest his regulars enough and another swoon is likely to occurr.
12) McLaren is a stodge in moving the game.
13) McLaren is steady, but hardly imaginative.
14) Worst swoon with 20 games over .500 EVER.
15) Lack of bona fide talent in Minors at Pitching, 1st/3rd, and IF. EVERYTHING.
16) Cannot evaluate talent in house well enough to time it out contracts at Big L. level.
17) MORE STEALs.
18) GARCIA doubtfull do to Bavasi's presense.
19) TRADES poorly, very poorly.
20) Voted among the WORST GM's to date.
21) Far too expensive to view.
22) NO advancement for ML Coaching.

NEEDS:

VP of Minor League system.
VP of Major League systems and over seas talent.
SEXSON gone even if doing ok.
LH Hitter from the bench and out on the field.
Unplug 1st/DH
JONES/Clement need to come up now.
MORSE AAA as Utility man
MORROW/Canadian Rook to AA to be called up late.
Resign Rameriz for AAA.
BAEK #5
Mid/Long RHR
CLEMENT AAA at 1st/catcher.
ICIRO 60 Stolen bases.
REED gone
LOPEZ gone.

Mr. Bavasi is as good as he is indept:

GOOD:
1) Got out of bidding wars saving a load for bogus talent.
2) Overall, did not trade the farm for zip.
3) Weaver, all things conisidered was all he could do otherwise.
4) Guillen wound up being a real plus but WLAD is better for our future.
5) Patience with Hernandez has paid dividends.
6) Beltre/GUILLEN came through and any err in abilities not Bavasi's fault.
7)Big Signing in Putz and B-Court was brilliant.
8)VIDRO did come through.
9)Resigning Ichiro was a must and he did it.
10) BURKE was just a spunky sign for depth.
11) Hargrove as a Master Builder got us 88 games after 3 years........very good and 2nd place outright in Division.
12)Pen remained solid even if lacking experienc, more the same next season.....excellent.
13) Use or Morrow, excellent.
14) Kept fans in the seats!
15) Steady with coaches, just fine.
16) Guilllen still not a resign.
17) Fine defensive players over all.
INEPT:

1) Sexson loyalty far too much and ought to have given away contract while he could. HUGE, COSTLY ERR.
2) Vidro/Ibanez/Sexson in the way at 1st/DH/OF for fine talent.
3: Hodge Podge line up that won't Walk, Strikes Out,lacks Power, lacks speed, and cannot Sacrifice.
4) Just to conisder trading Wlad and Clement is too scary to look at.
5) Soriano for Rameriz is a joke of a trade.
6) Eval's of FA talent and what they do have is too often misjudged costing games and an huge boat of money.
7) So much money they waste it to Bavasi's influence.
8)Credibility as a person lacks.
9)Ichiro too much say down in club house.
10). False advertising.
11). McLaren will be a disaster for bench players. He will not rest his regulars enough and another swoon is likely to occurr.
12) McLaren is a stodge in moving the game.
13) McLaren is steady, but hardly imaginative.
14) Worst swoon with 20 games over .500 EVER.
15) Lack of bona fide talent in Minors at Pitching, 1st/3rd, and IF. EVERYTHING.
16) Cannot evaluate talent in house well enough to time it out contracts at Big L. level.
17) MORE STEALs.
18) GARCIA doubtfull do to Bavasi's presense.
19) TRADES poorly, very poorly.
20) Voted among the WORST GM's to date.
21) Far too expensive to view.
22) NO advancement for ML Coaching.

NEEDS:

VP of Minor League system.
VP of Major League systems and over seas talent.
SEXSON gone even if doing ok.
LH Hitter from the bench and out on the field.
Unplug 1st/DH
JONES/Clement need to come up now.
MORSE AAA as Utility man
MORROW/Canadian Rook to AA to be called up late.
Resign Rameriz for AAA.
BAEK #5
Mid/Long RHR
CLEMENT AAA at 1st/catcher.
ICIRO 60 Stolen bases.
REED gone
LOPEZ gone.

Mr. Bavasi is as good as he is indept:

GOOD:
1) Got out of bidding wars saving a load for bogus talent.
2) Overall, did not trade the farm for zip.
3) Weaver, all things conisidered was all he could do otherwise.
4) Guillen wound up being a real plus but WLAD is better for our future.
5) Patience with Hernandez has paid dividends.
6) Beltre/GUILLEN came through and any err in abilities not Bavasi's fault.
7)Big Signing in Putz and B-Court was brilliant.
8)VIDRO did come through.
9)Resigning Ichiro was a must and he did it.
10) BURKE was just a spunky sign for depth.
11) Hargrove as a Master Builder got us 88 games after 3 years........very good and 2nd place outright in Division.
12)Pen remained solid even if lacking experienc, more the same next season.....excellent.
13) Use or Morrow, excellent.
14) Kept fans in the seats!
15) Steady with coaches, just fine.
16) Guilllen still not a resign.
17) Fine defensive players over all.
INEPT:

1) Sexson loyalty far too much and ought to have given away contract while he could. HUGE, COSTLY ERR.
2) Vidro/Ibanez/Sexson in the way at 1st/DH/OF for fine talent.
3: Hodge Podge line up that won't Walk, Strikes Out,lacks Power, lacks speed, and cannot Sacrifice.
4) Just to conisder trading Wlad and Clement is too scary to look at.
5) Soriano for Rameriz is a joke of a trade.
6) Eval's of FA talent and what they do have is too often misjudged costing games and an huge boat of money.
7) So much money they waste it to Bavasi's influence.
8)Credibility as a person lacks.
9)Ichiro too much say down in club house.
10). False advertising.
11). McLaren will be a disaster for bench players. He will not rest his regulars enough and another swoon is likely to occurr.
12) McLaren is a stodge in moving the game.
13) McLaren is steady, but hardly imaginative.
14) Worst swoon with 20 games over .500 EVER.
15) Lack of bona fide talent in Minors at Pitching, 1st/3rd, and IF. EVERYTHING.
16) Cannot evaluate talent in house well enough to time it out contracts at Big L. level.
17) MORE STEALs.
18) GARCIA doubtfull do to Bavasi's presense.
19) TRADES poorly, very poorly.
20) Voted among the WORST GM's to date.
21) Far too expensive to view.
22) NO advancement for ML Coaching.

NEEDS:

VP of Minor League system.
VP of Major League systems and over seas talent.
SEXSON gone even if doing ok.
LH Hitter from the bench and out on the field.
Unplug 1st/DH
JONES/Clement need to come up now.
MORSE AAA as Utility man
MORROW/Canadian Rook to AA to be called up late.
Resign Rameriz for AAA.
BAEK #5
Mid/Long RHR
CLEMENT AAA at 1st/catcher.
ICIRO 60 Stolen bases.
REED gone
LOPEZ gone.

Geoff-

Not only do I have a monopoly on the truth...

...but I've built hotels and just passed go.

Well done everybody for input.

I always liked the thought: "Opinions are like feet: everybody's got them... and some stink."

Thanks for your excellent work on this site. I discovered this fairly late in the season but appreciated your keeping a focus on discussion.I completely agree that this is about the joy of watching baseball and also was not happy when comments turned personal and did not allow for different opinions with respect for each.

Having followed the M's since their inception in 1977, the disappointing seasons left thier mark and the 1995/2001 seasons of success all the higher. Watching Lou Piniella, Bob Melvin, and Pat Gillick's team ( Jamie Moyer, Gregg Dobbs and others) should be a clear message of serious mistakes made by a sometimes vindictive front office. If you don't learn from your mistakes..............

I just hope that the current tendency toward self congratulation by the organization is not the theme for the winter and next year. This club has a huge revenue stream, has a monopoly on a huge area here in the Pacific Northwest and the fans and taxpayers are owed the highest quality stewardship of an MLB franchise.

I am very worried about the "party line" in the front office and the gambling marketing approach ( instead of the fire in the belly of hard nosed baseball). I hope McLaren emerges as a leader and not a "yes" man but we will see.

Thanks again

This was the place to be for Mariner fans this summer (the other two blogs mentioned were good as well) and you did an amazing job. For an out-of-state fan, the blog kept me so in the loop I though I was living in Seattle again. Great job Geoff

Ditto Geoff to you and all the bloggers. It has made the season better and a good place to vent.
So long Richie, Weaver, Ramirez, possibly Vidro and one of our relievers or prospects, but hello to Baek as our 5th starter and a big time #1 or #2 starting pitcher, hopefully platooning Morse and Broussard at first, Ibanez at DH, Jones in left. Thanks again, Geoff.

"He has earned the respect and trust of his players and that can't be underestimated."

Yeah, the way giving an eight year old chocolate cake for dinner and letting him play video games until 1:00 AM builds rapport, to steal the USSM analogy. McLaren spoiled them. So, of course they liked him and since they can't reveal their man-crushes, they called it "respect."

"None of us knows the right or wrong way to do things. We have our opinions, you have yours, and we're all in this for the love of watching baseball."

Stop this relativist crap. It's an argument that's the last refuge of a demonstrably wrong person who searches for some shield against having to truly defend the products of bad analysis.

Just because no one knows the *right* was doesn't mean that some ways aren't more wrong than others. The analytical methods that you see on other sites (and that are not seen here) are tested by industries and academic disciplines that actually must make money in competitive environments or survive real scrutiny (not just get Chuck Armstrong to accept them).

It's as if you're purposefully being obtuse to differentiate yourself from the other products on the web.

Really, Geoff, aren't reporters supposed to ask the hard questions, like, "Gee, player X, when you say that is a leader on the team, how do you know you perform worse when he's not around? Do you have any evidence other than your hurt feelings? And, how do you call yourself a professional or even a man if you let hurt feelings erode your performance?"

Here's another suggestion: "John, how do you know Raul would perform worse if you didn't play every day when dozens of other major league players can manage under those circumstances? Why do you assume the psyche of a major league baseball player in his mid-30s is so fragile? Haven't years of high-level competition toughened him?"

"Gee, John, when your players say you've earned their respect, how do you know you're not just indulging them like a guilt-ridden divorced father?"

Now, I know these questions are pointed, so you can't ask them as I've done here in the same way and still maintain your access. But, I interview people all of the time about uncomfortable subjects and get them to talk. "Tell me more" works. So does "tell me about a time when you could shake off a benching." Maybe ask McLaren about how Lou Piniella handled a guy who wasn't performing. Then, you've got a quote about how McLaren KNOWS and has seen how demanding excellence can actually get it.

The point: at the root of really good analysis are critical thinking skills and a willingness to challenge the assumptions that form the basis of a source's initial quote. Geoff, I've read that you're willing to challenge the Mariners' party line more than Finnegan was (so, thank you for vastly improving the journalism around here... seriously, thank you), but you don't seem willing to ask questions that would implicitly challenge your own assumptions when the Mariners put forward some explanation that seems congruent with them.

Thanks Shimon for the reading list, reading about baseball, the Seahawks and my Alex Rodriguez voodoo doll should keep me busy till spring training! Go M's ChC

Geoff,

Thanks for all your hard work this season; you've done a great job. I look forward to reading your coverage of the Mariners and this blog for years to come. I know working in baseball must seem like a dream, at times, but I don't envy you the travel. Thanks for logging the hard miles to get us the story, and congrats on embracing new technologies, like blogs and digital recorders, to better tell the whole story. It's that kind of innovative thinking we could use in the front office.

Almost got off on a bitter tangent there, and that's not what I wanted to do. Just wanted to say thanks for all your work this season. You did a great job.

Everybody else, burrow in for the winter...

...143 days until pitchers and catchers report.

Adam, I have no idea for your reasoning in that Morrow can't be ready to start in April. Or, even July, as you said. There's no reason he can't be ready by ST. Depending on his spring he'll be starting somewhere in April, be it Seattle or Tacoma. I don't understand your thinking, at all. That goes for Ryan Rowland-Smith, as well. Also, why would you expect teams to trade their best young pitchers to the Mariners? They're trying to build winners, too. What makes you think said pitchers will even be available?

Brandon Morrow has started 5 games at the professional level.

He walked 50 hitters in 63 1/3 innings this year.

He throws his fastball about 85-90% of the time.

He has little idea where that fastball is going.

He can't throw a splitter/change/slider consistently.

He's never been through a major-league lineup a second time.

He'll likely lose anywhere from 3-5 mph off his fastball when he begins starting.

There is no way that Morrow will be ready in April. I don't think he'll be ready in July. He's shown NOTHING to demonstrate he'll be an effective starter. I think he has the tools, but the fact that he struck out more than a hitter an inning doesn't mean he'll be ready to start in April.

It's not an easy transition to make, going from reliever to starter. And before anyone brings up Fausto Carmona - Carmona had over 90 starts in the minors before this year. NINETY.

Morrow won't be ready - I'll put money on it.

And I wasn't suggesting trading for Kazmir or Shields. I was suggesting a trade for one of the many young, talented arms they have - Sonnanstine or JP Howell, for example. Tampa's got a surplus of young arms - we need one.

20 games over .500 in August and the M's fans were in a fever. The Angels were coming to town and the M's were primed to take over first place. That was a great time to be a M's fan.

Then the collapse, and I was so disappointed.

But hey, it could have been worse. At least I'm not a Mets fan. Thanks NYC, for helping me keep it in perspective.

Note: I don't think Morrow will be ready to start for the Mariners. Of course he'll be starting in the minors (which is what he should have been doing this year, but that's another story) in April.

One mystery I'd like solved is the Richie Sexson waiver story.

Jayson Stark of ESPN says that Richie Sexson was put on waivers and claimed by the Tigers, and the Mariners withdrew the claim:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2976815&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

Then the Seattle P-I reports that the Sexson story was not true, that Sexson cleared waivers and no one claimed him.

So could super-sleuth Geoff please put figure out the truth to this story one way or another?

Geoff,

You are one of the very best beat writers I have ever been lucky enough to read. Your daily reporting is excellent and while I don't agree with you on everything, I think that it is great that you have maintained this blog all year and gave us all of your opinions and observations that couldn't fit or weren't appropriate for the game story.

I enjoyed this blog the most when you are willing to give us insight into why decisions are made and when you are willing to go beyond writing things like "that's just the way it is," althought I understand your point in writing it today.

Thanks for the hard work Geoff and have a great off-season!

Adam, I feel you are underestimating Morrow quite a bit. Additionally, I'd throw out his 2007 stats if you want to want to evaluate what kind of starter he'll be.
.
Remember, the kid is one year removed as an effective starter for the California Bears. And, in a league where the hits go 'ping' instead of 'crack'. He'll benefit as a starter by facing wood bats and having a great big league defense behind him.
.
In fact, this year in the bullpen was probably a bigger adjustment for him than competing for a starting spot will be. As a starter he can develop a routine he can stick with, nor will he have to get fatigued from overuse or from the addition length of the season, which contributed to much of his 2007 woes.
.
It really depends on how quickly his change-up developes. He's got the other pitches, even by losing a few MPHs off his fastball, for starting. As goes his changeup, so goes his value in the M's rotation.
.
I really only see the M's needing one new starter this year. Two if Washburn gets dealt, but you need a starter coming back in such a deal. Otherwise, you've got Felix, Miguel and an internal guy, and Wash, if he stays.
.
Yes, TB has a number of nice young starters. I'd love to see Jason Hummel come to Seattle, myself, not only for the talent, but also for the local angle. But, you'd probably have to give up AJ to get it done plus an additional young starter in return. Remember, KC wouldn't take Wladimir Balentien for Octovio Dotel, for crying out loud.

Here's some history on Brandon Morrow's pitching career for the Cal Bears that moved the Mariners to make him the #5 selection overall in the 2006 draft:
.
http://calbears.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/morrow_brandon00.html

Apropos to nothing, I was just reading a McLaren quote about Richie Sexson in the Tacoma News Tribune this morning that gave me pause!
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mariners/story/168649.html Yikes!!!

It sure sounds like a vote for Richie Sexson's return next year, doesn't it? I really have no confidence in the FO decision-making ability, even less in McLaren's judgement. A heads-up for Richie and then the quote about Adam Jones? Not overwhelmingly positive, not what I would call a solid endorsement. What in the hell is wrong with McLaren?

Nat, you had WAY too much coffee this morning, didn't you?
.
Face facts. No manager, this manager, anyway, is going to slam any of his players in the press. It's the best way there is to get a team to stop playing for you. Even if he's privately convinced Sexson's days with the M's are numbered he's not going to spill that for public consumption. If anything, he's going to overhype his players so they do feel good about themselves AND PLAYING FOR HIM!
.
There's also a little thing call 'a market'. There's not much of one for Richie right now. So why slam him to the press and others and chip away at what little one is there?
.
I'm constantly amazed at the amount of anxiety manifested from the comments section of this blog over absolutly nothing. Half of you are going to die of a heart attack or stroke by the time you're thirty.

I pulled this from the link Lance provided about Morrow.

AS A JUNIOR (2006): Was named first-team All-Pac-10, going 7-4 with a 2.05 ERA (2nd in Pac-10)...had 97 strikeouts (4th in Pac-10) in 96.7 innings (9th in Pac-10)...opponents batted .211 (3rd in Pac-10)

Now here's a question for the IDIOT Bavasi. Where did Lincicum rank in these Pac-10 categories last year and then tell me again why you didn't draft him? Here's a hint... they all start with #1!!!

Lance, I'm well aware of Morrow's career at Cal - including the fact that he made all of 24 starts. And you will have to excuse me, but I'm not going to rely on 24 starts, and only 14 really effective starts (his 2006 year) to believe he'll be ready to start at the major-league level.

If you really think 14 good starts against college lineups is going to translate to success at the ML-level, you are wrong.

Look at Andrew Miller and Tim Lincecum. Both have better arsenals than Morrow, both had better track records against college competition. Yet both had to spend time in the minors. Miller is still trying to develop, mostly in part to the fact that he can't throw strikes, and basically relies on a fastball. Sound familiar? As for Lincecum, he absolutely DOMINATED the PCL, and was brought up rather quickly. If Morrow does the same, bring him up. But Morrow doesn't have a second pitch anywhere close to Lincecum's curveball, and Lincecum is much better (control) with his fastball than Morrow.

The fact remains that a one-pitch pitcher can't hack it as a starter in this league, unless you are Brandon Webb. Morrow can't control his fastball, can't control a secondary pitch, hasn't ever gone through a ML-lineup more than once, and has never had his stamina really tested.

It's very unrealistic to think 5 weeks of spring training with Chaves is going to cure all that.

It was a mistake to use Morrow as a reliever this year, and now we are going to pay the price for it. I really like Morrow, and I hope he's a good pitcher for us. Just don't expect Morrow in the rotation in 2008. If he is, expect him to get hammered.

Geoff, great blog, I have enjoyed it daily all season long. And kudos to the bloggers. I thought I knew a lot about baseball, but some of you guys have taught me a lot and I will continue to read and learn. It is good to hear the other (wrong) side of issues and this is a great place to get all the slants.
.
There are some players I would hate to see traded, BUT the FO has to be ruthless. We do not need six guys at DH and first base. Vidro has been good but if we can do better, do it. Likewise we only need four outfielders and a utility and one of them should not be Ibanez. If Raul cannot DH and/or play first, trade him.
.
Off season and spring training will be interesting. Even with McL and BB we should make the playoffs in 2008.
.
Thanks again Geoff

I thought the issue was whether he'll be ready to start in April. I have no doubt he will. I also added the addendum that it could be in Seattle or Tacoma. You definitely disagree with Seattle. Not sure of your take as to Tacoma.
.
Nor did I ever say he'd be ready to win a Cy Young Award in 2008. Yes, all young pitchers need the experience AND the stuff to be SUCCESSFUL big league pitchers. It rarely happens overnight. Felix is a prime example of that.
.
But, I hardly feel that one season as a setup guy is going to hurt him near as much as you seem to. His work in winter ball will give him a jump to preparing as a starter in '08, provided he stays healthy. It's just not about six weeks in ST.
.
Additionally, I'm sure he'll take his occasional lumps starting next year. What young pitchers don't? But, I'm confident he'll be fine and will help the team in the rotation for most of next season.
.
And, to say he's a one pitch pitcher is ridiculous. He simply needs to hone his pitches, particularly the changeup, as I stated.
.
I guess I'm also looking inside the guy and not just at stats alone, or the common philosophical thinking. He came out of nowhere to make this team this ST and did an excellent job as a setup man for the first half of this season. I just feel he's a guy not to count out too quickly. You seem to disagree with that assessment.

And, to say he's a one pitch pitcher is ridiculous. He simply needs to hone his pitches, particularly the changeup, as I stated.

???

Thanks Geoff! I didn't always agree with what you wrote, but I admire the fact that it always came from a well thought out perspective.

And Willie Bloomquist just needs to "hone" his home run stroke.

Morrow has one major league quality pitch and he has great difficulty throwing IT for strikes.

Could it happen? Sure. Look at Putz after he learned the splitter. But don't count on Morrow before 2009.

For all of you Lincecum fans, the Mariners were actually pretty straightforward as to why they didn't draft him at the time. They said that his slight build and poor mechanics looked like an injury risk about to happen. Morrow was determined to have better mechanics and closer to major league ready.

Did Lincecum have a better 2007? Sure. Will he have a better career than Morrow? That's to be seen. But if Lincecum has an injury plagued career and Morrow stays healthy, then the M's scouts will seem very prophetic.

By the way, I wanted the M's to draft Lincecum too, but once I read their reasoning, I understood.

Geoff--I have really appreciated your comments this season and agreed with most of them; however I must take exception with a couple today.
1) You said some of us lovers of young talent express that a player "over 30 is guilty of something until proven innocent. The same thing could be said abot McLaren/Boovasi and apparently you, about rookie position players being guilty of soemthing until proven innocent.
2) You used a comparison that is as old as it is ridiculous, and that is, baseball player, "go to war for you." I am a veteran of 3 wars and baseball has practically no comparison to the wars I've experienced.

We do agree about Sexon, but a couple things happened this weekend that really upset me and I see as possibly a precursor to next season. I was there on Friday for fan appreciation night and noted the absence of Sexon when the team lined up before the game. At the time I thought Richie had been shut down and went home for the season. I found out that he had not gone home--he just didn't go out. That was a real bush move. Then today I heard McLaren talking about how Richie was going to go home and prepare himself better physically and mentally to come back next year and have a good year. If he would have just responded to the quetion by saying, "Decisions about players next year will be made later when Mr. Boovasi and I sit down and talk about them." If he would have said that I at least would have been convinced that he ripped Richie for not going out for the introduction and thanks to the fans. In closing I will say that McLaren has not shown me he is "mean enough" to be a major league manager. He pampered the older veterans, ignored many rookie position players, and unmercifully used Lopez and Bettencourt as "whipping boys." Wait until he has to make tough decisions about veterans and watch them pounce all over him. OK Lance, Im done--go back to your argument about Morrow...

ChC, I second Shimon's reading list, especially the Thomas Boswell stuff. If you're interested in the sabermetrics side of baseball, I'd suggest Baseball Between the Numbers. It's a compilation on different subjects by different authors and they use lots of examples with current players, so it's not just reading statistics.

Funny how some people minimum a quality major league fastball when it serves their purpose and supports their argument to do so. Fact is a fastball like Morrow's can and does cover over many other mistakes and/or weaknesses. Only pitchers like Ryan Feierabend need to be nearly perfect with their other stuff because they don't have one to fall back on. That's not the case with Brandon.
.
That said, he also has a decent curveball. And, like any young power pitcher, developing his changeup is imperative at the major league level. Yet, Morrow's isn't bad. He just needs to make it better. That's what I meant by "hone" his pitches, a concept that seems to be beyond Adam's comprehension.
.
However, the points made about control, and command, are valid. It's another area he also needs to improve in, probably the number one area. However, with "rest" not being an issue as a starter, he hopefully will be able to do that.
.
Mike, to compare Brandon's need to develop his secondary pitches to Willie Bloomquist's ability to develop power is also ridiculous.
.
Brandon also has an above average splitter, which is why many scouts saw him as a future closer. Although he'll unlikely to pull it out often because of the wear on the arm, it's nice to know he can pull it out on occasion in key situations.
.
But, Mike, I don't think he'll not be useful as a starter until 2009. My thinking is somewhere in 2008, if not the beginning of next season. We shall see.
.
Even so, he'll be a BOTO starter, behind Felix, Miguel, and Washburn (or whoever else they bring in if Washburn leaves). I'd love to see a guy who played this year in Minnesota come to Seattle, but that's a whole nother topic.
.
That starter? Carlos Silva.

Lance,

Yes, it is ridiculous to compare Willie B's power to Morrow's secondary pitches. That's the point of sarcasm. My point is that Morrow needs to do a lot more than "hone." He's not that close. I hope I'm wrong but it will take awhile for him to develop the ability to get major leaguers out with a second pitch and nothing else he throws is close to major league. He does have a great fastball that he can't quite control at this point. That's fine for 3 or 4 batters throwing as hard as he can. When he starts he will lose 3-4 mph just because he will not be able to go all out.

Again, I hope you are right and I am wrong but I really doubt it.

Geoff I argee McLaren's return is fair and I fully believe he does deserve a full season to manage the M's from pre ST planning to game #162.
Hopefully even beyond into a '08 playoff appearance and futher.

However I can't agree with the retaining of Bavasi and he'd had best think long and hard before even attempting any trade deals over the offseason.
I would give kudos only for two trades if he able to put off one or both without having to gut the top five prospects to do them.
Deal #1:Aquiring P Johann Santana from the Twins provided the price was no higher than say top OF/C or OF/INF prospects and only if that was with the 72 hr to resign or no trade clause in force.
Deal #2: Aquiring P Jon Garland provided the ChiSox will accept say mid level prospects with a Lopez or Broussard to sweeten the deal.
However failing these two situations I would like to see a attempt to aquire one of the D-Rays young arms if that fizzles turn to only these 3 among the FAs available:
Koji Uehara
Klye Lohse
Josh Fogg

The other deals I would look for Bavasi to do is move Sexson and others to make room for the MLB ready AAAers to play everyday next season.
Sexson along with part of his salary as a cash consideration for prospects would work most likely taker is San Francisco with some interest from the Yankees(slim but there).
Broussard has solicited interest from the Rangers and a couple of NL clubs in need of a veteran LHB that can handle 1stB so prospects and say a RP isn't out of the question.

If Guillen is also for some reason isn't retained and he moves on.This opens up a scenrio I hope McLaren will fight for over the winter with the FO.
That being let the MLB ready talent in AAA have first dibbs on the available bench jobs and one or two of starting ones.
That leave the #5 slot and the bullpen open slots if any for the AAA pitchers to fight over.

"Funny how some people minimum a quality major league fastball when it serves their purpose and supports their argument to do so. Fact is a fastball like Morrow's can and does cover over many other mistakes and/or weaknesses."

That's true when you are a reliever. Not as a starter. That FB will most likely lose around 3 MPH when he moves to a starting role, and he will HAVE to develop his secondary pitches if he's going to be facing hitters more than one time through the lineup.

"That said, he also has a decent curveball."

No he doesn't. I'm not even sure I've seen Brandon Morrows curveball. I've seen him flash a slider/splitter that has looked nasty at times, and flat and hittable at others.

"That's what I meant by "hone" his pitches, a concept that seems to be beyond Adam's comprehension."

I think harness it would be a better term. He can't throw it with any kind of consistency. 90% of the time his slider/splitter looks like crap. Not really a knock on him. He's young, and I don't expect him to offer much in the way of secondary pitches.

"However, with "rest" not being an issue as a starter, he hopefully will be able to do that."

"Rest" has absolutely NOTHING to do with Morrow's control problems. They are a direct result of not being able to maintain a consistent release point. A problem that is VERY common among pitchers in his age group.

"Brandon also has an above average splitter,"

No he doesn't. It shows flashes of being above average at times, but usually it's flat and hittable.

That said Morrow needs significant development time in the minors before he will be ready to start. Starting is WAY harder than relieving. Brandon Morrow would get LIT UP in the starting rotation with the current skillset he posseses. Counting on Brandon Morrow to be a contributer in the starting rotation would be TERRIBLE roster construction.

"Remember, the kid is one year removed as an effective starter for the California Bears. And, in a league where the hits go 'ping' instead of 'crack'. He'll benefit as a starter by facing wood bats and having a great big league defense behind him."

Only problem being that your theory completely ignores the level of offensive talent that Morrow will be facing. These are major league hitter, not college hitters. The use of aluminum bats doesn't outweigh the huge disparity in talent between college hitters, and major league hitters.

"Additionally, I'd throw out his 2007 stats if you want to want to evaluate what kind of starter he'll be."

Your kidding right? In order to evaluate how he would fare as a ML starter, you think we should comlpetely ignore how he pitched against ML hitters, and instead focus on his college career? Do you realize how silly that sounds?

"In fact, this year in the bullpen was probably a bigger adjustment for him than competing for a starting spot will be."

No it isn't. Relieving is easier than starting, no matter what you hear from journeymen relievers. Most relievers are failed starters.

"As a starter he can develop a routine he can stick with, nor will he have to get fatigued from overuse or from the addition length of the season, which contributed to much of his 2007 woes."

That ignores that fact that Morrow was walking hitters for most of the year, not just later on. He actually got better as the season wore on. Fatigue played no part in Morrow's struggles.

"He's got the other pitches, even by losing a few MPHs off his fastball, for starting"

Have you ever seen Morrows slider, or splitter? If you have I'd really love to hear how THAT is a major league pitch. It isn't.

But Faceplant - He struck out a lot of guys!!

Tim Lincecum - they call him the Franchise in SF. A local kid the Mariners had in the palm of their hands and they let get away. Not only did they blow it on a talent level but also on a marketing level.
I heard the same excuses why they didn't draft Lincecum. I also know he's never had so much as a stubbed toe in his life. (Actually I don't know that..I just made it up. But I don't think he's ever been hurt.) And he's had these same mechanics since his dad taught him how to pitch. Kind of like Furyk with a golf club. Plus he's as big as Guidry and Pedro. Hell, bigger than Guidry. He's reminds me of a RH Louisiana Lightning.

Geoff,
As a long time geographically separated Mariners fan I thought this blog put a tremendous amount of color into the Mariner's season. Many thanks.

Good job on the blog this year Geoff! There are a lot of things to like about the roster of the Mariners for next year. The infield defense, the young bull pen, the talented call ups, and the some veteran additions that brought the team some leadership and consistency, namely Vidro, Guillen, and Batista. The M's appear to be in good financial shape with a strong fan base and growing farm system.
On the other side of the coin, this fan is nervous about the management of the team in every area. McLaren is unproven and his audition left a lot of questions. He appeared to wear out his position players and leave his bench to rot and rust. He appeared to be outmanaged during many of the games, he also appeared to have his team unprepared at times.
Bavasi's track record doesn't give me much confidence as to his stewardship of the team's assets. I fear the team's doesn't have a general manager on par with others in the industry and we may well be hoodwinked a few more times in our efforts to secure some dominant pitching.
The front office is bewildering. I often wonder if they ever watch the games or are even fans of the game.
But hope springs eternal....let's hope Bavasi and McLaren earn the trust they have been given and reward this city with a championship they richly deserve.

FP, my point is that you can look at Morrow's college stats to ascertain that he has the capability to start in the big leagues. How immediately successful he'll be is problematical, of course. And, its not right to simply look at his 2007 stats as a reliever to make that determination since there's no many things to factor in to his 2007 performance. Some seem to be doing that, however. I simply don't agree. I feel, however, that there is more there and that his college career exhibited that. Put another away, Morrow pitched one way to fill his roll as a setup man in the big leagues last season and that his approach as a starter will differ from his 2007 roll. I don't see what's so silly about that. You'll see a different Brandon Morrow next season, I feel. Yet, one who can be nearly as successful as he was as a reliever this year.
.
Of course, it is a big step for a big league "thrower" to become a big league "pitcher". However, I seem to be more confident in his ability to make that transition than many of you seem to be.
.
If he goes down to Tacoma at season's beginning I don't think he'll be down there long. But, that's just me. He knows how to start. How quickly he'll be able to do that from the college to major league level is the question. Having one year already of big league experience will help. I'm more confident than many of you are. I think the kid's going to be a quick study. I'd say half a season max. Could even be better. Possibly no minor league starts, at all.

Don't know if anyone else is watching the SD-COL game, but it's a lesson for why defense is important. The Padres are reeeeally missing Mike Cameron about now. Now both teams have badly screwed up an outfield ball. I'd like to think that whoever ends up in the Series will have more solid play.

Yeah, I agree oregongal. Whichever team comes out of this is not going to be very effective in the league series. Although you have to respect all that offense, at some point in time you have to stop the other guy and make those catches for sure.

Hey, there, Maui!

And another error for the Rockies. It was great to see Cameron in there. Talk about a tough guy. He's got a torn ligament and was getting IV fluids because he's got the flu. I hope the Padres don't lose by Cameron dropping a ball.

Aloha oregongal.................now that would be a shame to lose Cammy to an even worse injury but he is one tough son-of-a-gun. I always liked him and have followed him around. A real good guy cut from the Griffey cloth, a bit of a different shape but same type of cloth. Guillen has some of the same threads woven in there and I really feel he is home now and wants to plan hard for this team and will give it his all. I feel that those issues are sometimes more important than raw numbers and in his case he has both numbers and spirit.

What a game eh oregongal? Playoff baseball, ya gotta love it. High drama in Mile High!

If this is any indication of what the post season is going to be, I'm going to have to start taking vitamins and working out for stamina just to watch the games! Who would have thought Trevor Hoffman would break down at this point?

What an unbelievable game. They packed it all in to 4 1/2 hours, right up to the finish.

I agree. That was great. Congrats to the Rockies.

Aloha for now, Maui. Hope I'll be seeing you around the post-season.

Ditto
a hui hou

If the Padres/Rockies game is any indication, it's going to be a great year for playoff baseball.
.
My head says it'll be Phillies and Angels. My heart says D-backs and Angels. Either way, I see the Angels taking it all. However, Angels and Yankees is going to be a classic.

Fluke season.

The Mariners are garbage. At least when they were garbage in the 80's it was because they didn't spend money.

Now they spend like a contender and play like a joke.

Bavasi sucks.

The pitching staff is a joke.

Tim Linceum's in San Francisco, and for the fourth year in a row, the M's last game is a day to celebrate, because we don't have to hear about the steaming pile for a few months.

Cubby will hate USSM's article today. It has the audacity to call Richie Sexson a horrible defensive 1B, and the worst regular on the team. Backed by statistical analysis, to boot...

There's one more element to add to the Brandon Morrow-as-starter argument. I don't believe M's brass WANT Morrow spending a lot of time, if any, in the minors next year and not have someone with his talent on the pitching staff in SOME capacity. So, I believe they'd be willing to let him start on the big league level and take whatever comes. If he completely falls on his face they'll simply let him figure things out in the bullpen until he works his way back into the rotation.
.
That's my take on it, anyway. He's already had a year of facing big league hitters. So, it's not like facing them will be a new experience for him. Then what point would there be in sending him down?
.
That's how I think they'll reason, anyway. Only if he falls flat in relief would he get optioned out. Of course, he'll have to have a decent ST, but I think he will.

I, along with most of you, was disappointed that we didn't draft Lincecum instead of Morrow - but as long as he's here, I'll root for him. If I were running the M's, I'd have him start in AAA for a few months, and fill in with the other available AAA starters in the meantime. We hung in there this year with two terrible starters in the rotation until late August. If we can get Morrow up to speed, say, starting in June, we will be better poised to compete in 2008, without massive disruptions to the squad. Everything depends on getting two competent starters - don't have to be Cy Young types, just steady competitors.
PS - our bullpen will be strengthened in 2008 if Lowe and/or Huber rebound. Maybe Mickolio will surprise; maybe Sean Green will last longer with less of a load. Maybe. . . .

There's one more element to add to the Brandon Morrow-as-starter argument. I don't believe M's brass WANT Morrow spending a lot of time, if any, in the minors next year and not have someone with his talent on the pitching staff in SOME capacity. So, I believe they'd be willing to let him start on the big league level and take whatever comes. If he completely falls on his face they'll simply let him figure things out in the bullpen until he works his way back into the rotation.

If the M's really felt this way, you would have seen Felix in the bigs at age 18. They might be disillusioned about Morrow's current development, but I don't think they'll simply cite his talent as a justification for putting him into the rotation to early.

And I would have taken Andrew Miller over Lincecum and Morrow, FWIW...

Not true, Adam. Felix had no experience remotely close to what Brandon has pitching Division 1 college ball. Besides, Felix would have been five years younger than Brandon is now. He wasn't even fully grow. I'd say you're engaging in faulty reasoning.

Actually, I'm probably thinking of Felix at 17, rather than 18. Even so, didn't they, in fact, bring him up to the bigs at just a few months past 19. So, they didn't try real hard to hold him back, did they? I suspect Morrow will get the same treatment as a starter, just as they rushed him up to relieve after his great 2007 ST.

Felix at 18 had several major league quality pitches and Morrow has but one. It's not Morrow's maturity in question here, it's his repertoire.

Wishful thinking is not a way to build a roster.

Adam, you say, "And I would have taken Andrew Miller over Lincecum and Morrow, FWIW..."

Was Miller available when the M's drafted?
.
byebyeSexson

Miller was available but was demanding too much money for MLB's taste. MLB discouraged teams from drafting/signing him at the figure he wanted. Seattle (and others) acquiesced to MLB. Detroit decided paying a couple million more in signing bonus and ignoring MLB was worth it.

Considering what teams are paying for marginal starting pitching, Detroit looks pretty smart. When was the last time someone said that about Mariner management?

byebyeSexson - Yes. We picked Morrow at 5, and the Tigers took Miller at 6. He was the consensus top talent in the draft, but had high contract demands (Boras).

You might also note that the Tigers got one of the top two or three pitchers in this year's draft, Rick Porcello, at #27. Porcello fell because of his contract demands. Other teams, scared of drafting a player who would want more than slot $, passed on him. The Tigers didn't care, drafted him, and signed him. Now they have Miller, Porcello, Verlander, and Bonderman for the next 5 to 10 years. The Tigers are going to be good for a while...

And Lance, you cited talent as the reason why the Mariners would put Morrow into the rotation, even if he hasn't had much experience as a starter. I merely pointed out that the Mariners aren't that dumb, otherwise Felix would have been up a lot sooner. My reasoning is clear: Talent alone doesn't make you a worthy big-league starter.

And by the way, Felix started 34 minor-league games before he was 19, and 48 total before he was called up to the show. I'll take that starting experience over what Morrow has any day of the month.

Sorry for the long post... I just wanted to respond to everything in one shot.

"FP, my point is that you can look at Morrow's college stats to ascertain that he has the capability to start in the big leagues."

Looking at results at the college level is almost completely worthless. Brandon Morrow had the same stuff in college that he has now. And that stuff (beyond his fastball) isnt' major league quality yet.

"And, its not right to simply look at his 2007 stats as a reliever to make that determination since there's no many things to factor in to his 2007 performance."

But you just want to ignore it and put more stock into his college numbers? That's completely crazy.

"Put another away, Morrow pitched one way to fill his roll as a setup man in the big leagues last season and that his approach as a starter will differ from his 2007 roll. I don't see what's so silly about that."

That's because you seem to see nothing wrong with completely ignoring the HUGE disparity in talent between college hitters and ML hitters.

"You'll see a different Brandon Morrow next season, I feel. Yet, one who can be nearly as successful as he was as a reliever this year."

His approach isnt' what we are talking about. His pure stuff, and command is what we are talking about. It doesn't matter how Brandon Morrow approaches hitters next year, if he has the same stuff he had this year he's going to get rocked.

"He knows how to start."

And your evidence of this is what? That he started in college against inferior hitters and lineups that had automatic outs scattered through them?

"There's one more element to add to the Brandon Morrow-as-starter argument. I don't believe M's brass WANT Morrow spending a lot of time, if any, in the minors next year and not have someone with his talent on the pitching staff in SOME capacity."

That's called sacrificing the long term, for short term gain.

"So, I believe they'd be willing to let him start on the big league level and take whatever comes. If he completely falls on his face they'll simply let him figure things out in the bullpen until he works his way back into the rotation."

Which is pretty much the worst possible way the Mariners could handle that situation.

"Then what point would there be in sending him down?"

To work on his terrible command, and poor secondary pitches is a start. To stretch him out, teach him to actually "pitch" not just throw, and teach him how to pace himself are a few more.

"Not true, Adam. Felix had no experience remotely close to what Brandon has pitching Division 1 college ball."

You're right. At age 22 Morrow was pitching to college hitters. At age 17, Felix Hernandez was dominating professional hitters that were 4-5 years his senior.

"Even so, didn't they, in fact, bring him up to the bigs at just a few months past 19. So, they didn't try real hard to hold him back, did they? I suspect Morrow will get the same treatment as a starter, just as they rushed him up to relieve after his great 2007 ST."

Felix Hernandez has always had better stuff, AND better command than Brandon Morrow. Hernandez has over 300 minor league innings under his belt, including 48 starts. What you advocate isn't even remotely the same path that Felix Hernandez took.

Edwin Jackson throws regularly 97 to 99 mph on his fastball. Probably has one of the better sliders I've seen, but inconsistent. He has tremendous stuff compared to Brandon Morrow, yet Edwin Jackson watched his fastball hit regularly for home runs despite having 2 plus pitches.

Edwin lost 15 games this year with Tampa and only won 5 (5.76 ERA)thanks partly to a lousy bullpen that couldn't get rid of all the runners he constantly left loaded. And most importantly Edwin simply doesn't know how to pitch yet and has no plan. It's not all about velocity folks.

Morrow not only doesn't have great stuff, I don't see him setting hitters up well at all. He's a college pitcher yet looks very raw. J.J. Putz for example can throw a 97 mph straight fastball, but he can't rely on it as an out pitch because it gets jacked out. Thus why the split was developed for him.

I'm almost inclined to believe the M's actually envisioned Morrow as a reliever to replace Soriano, that's why he made the club this year in Spring.

So now we face the reality that Fontaine wasted a 1st round pick on an average reliever and passed up a #1 starter with electric stuff. Bavasi's incompetence is now using the draft to make up for his mistakes instead of drafting the best player available.

Thanks so much for making the season so enjoyable! Your writing is thoughtful, insightful and (no easy feat) very comprehendible. Your bolg enhanced my understanding of the Mainers and the game in general. Being from the NY area where the level of baseball knowledge is generally higher than in Seattle (or at least everyone has a strong opinion) I think you are leading the way in creating a more sophisticated fan base here. Only one problem, since your writing here is far more in depth and timely than what is possible in the paper, what incentive do your bosses have to let the thing continue to ride (no need to mention this to the powers that be).

Enjoy your winter break and I look forward to next season!

"At age 17, Felix Hernandez was dominating professional hitters that were 4-5 years his senior."
*
that is called exaggeration and wishful thinking. at 17, felix hernandez was a poor boy in south america who played for his school.
*
byebyeBroussard

Geoff,

Great job and thanks for all the time you spent writing entries and responding back to questions and comments. I really enjoyed this year reading through the entries. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what you say... which I'm not sure if this reflects more poorly on you or me... ;^)

In regards to Morrow's future as a Starter in 2008, I agree with Adam and Faceplant in that I think it is pretty wishful thinking to believe that Morrow would be ready to start at the MLB-level by April 2008. Winter Ball and Spring Training just don't seem to be enough time to get him ready. And putting him in the rotation and accepting whatever happens is a great way to ruin a pitcher.

Of course we wouldn't even be having this argument if the Mariners had done the right thing to begin with and left Morrow in AA or AAA to work as a Starter in 2007. In an effort to save his job Bavasi in my mind simply pushed back Morrow's chances of helping the Mariners where they really need help (SR not Bullpen) for a year. Of course for Bavasi this worked out OK, lets see if it works out OK for Morrow too.

byebyeBroussard...or should I say Cubby?

You are just making stuff up. At age 17 Felix split his time between Everett & Wisconsin where he went 7-2 with a 2.22 ERA. Sounds dominating to me.

"My reasoning is clear: Talent alone doesn't make you a worthy big-league starter." ---Adam
.
I never said it did. And, if you were reading my comments with a half-way open mind you'd grasp that. However, you're almost making it sound like talent is a handicap that needs to be overcome. If you don't believe he has the talent to be a starter for the Mariners then say so. Otherwise, what are you trying to say here? That that talent needs to be "honed"? Didn't I already say that? Oh, I forgot, that was met with your "???", so I guess you really didn't comprehend the point I was making, after all.
.
"FP, my point is that you can look at Morrow's college stats to ascertain that he has the capability to start in the big leagues." ---FP
.
I suppose I should have elaborated more on that statement. I only meant that his college stats shows that he is used to starting and going deep into games, albeit at a much different level then he is at now. Whether he can be a winning major league starter is problematical. Didn't I already say that, too?
.
Maybe this discussion neeeds to come to an end, as I'm finding my self repeating things I already said, vis-a-vis this discussion seems to be going in circles.
.
I thought you people wanted Brandon to be a starter, anyway. One year as a setup man and you believe he's married to the position? Apparantly, you feel he's either ruined for life or will be spending an inordinant amount of time becoming a starter for the M's. I don't believe it's going to take near as long as you believe. He'd have to replace Jeff Weaver, or Horacio Ramirez, for crying out loud. How hard could that be?
.
You're certainly entitled to your views, And, I mine. The odds are in your favor, of course. Because what you say is the general philosophical viewpoint as to developing starting pitchers. However, I believe Brandon will beat those odds. If he isn't in the rotation on Opening Day he'll be there by the All-Star break. You say otherwise. Time will tell. Even so, I enjoyed the discussion. It was fun. (I may respond to a couple of the other points FP made amount my statements, but gotta go, for now.)

hey geoff amazing blog...I've really enjoyed it all year. I do play-by-play for the local football team and I have a lot of time to daydream on away trips. everyone out there can you do me a favor and do a critique of the line-up I've come up with for next year. It's been fun for me to think about and I'm curious what others think. This is of course if Guillen returns. Which I am on the fence about...(love what he brings on and off the field...but would rather spend the money on pitching and get balantien and Jones on the field either way is good)
LF: Jones SP:Hernandez
CF: Ichiro SP: Washburn
RF: Guillen SP: Batista
3B: Beltre SP: Free agent signee
SS: Betancourt (Silva, Japanese import)
2B: Lopez SP: Morrow/Rowland-Smith/
1B: Ibanez Cha-seung Baek....whoever
DH: Vidro looks the best coming out
C: Johjima of winter and spring ball
Bench:
Clement (back-up catcher and 1b or dh)
Bloomquist, utility
Morse (do we have to have 4 bench players? it almost seems like it would be more beneficial to have deeper bull-pen help so that's whati did
BULLPEN: (assuming for the sake of argument that Cha-seung baek wins a rotation spot)
R: Putz L: Rowland-Smith
Lowe O'Flaherty
Morrow Sherrill
Green
anyway, thanks had to get that off my chest!!!

It was a great year guys. One for the ages lol.

Geoff, thanks for the great posts and opinions. The blog kept me occupied over the summer when i had nothin to do, but now since im back to school, I havent had the time to come and throw my 2 cents in lol.

All I know is that I cant wait for the Yanks to get bumped from the playoffs because then everyone here in NY will finally shut up!!!

See you all next year!!!!

Mr. Baker,

Thank you so much for the Blog. It was a joy to read over the season. I think you have done a great job in rasing baseball intelligence in the area.

I have one request for the winter. Please talk to whomever is responsible for the M's stats following the box scores in the paper. It would be great to see OBP and OPS introduced next year. Some advanced pitching stats would be welcome as well. Perhaps an article explaining then for those not familiar would be good too.

There is a reason so many people are hung up and batting averages and earned run averages. It's all they get to see in print.

Thanks again.

Jocketty's a FA now, I wonder if Larussa is soon to follow. I know our front office will have no second thoughts about bringing Bavasi back but I wonder if McLane is sorry he hired that imbecile Ed Wade as GM. Wade will give Bavasi a run for his money as worst GM in baseball. If they make a trade together no doubt it will be lose/lose for both sides.
Sweet Lou against Bo-Mel. Tough series to root for. They love Melvin in AZ - owners, players and fans. He'll be the NL manager of the year. Another great move by Bavasi.
But I'm picking the Cubs in 4.

"I thought you people wanted Brandon to be a starter, anyway. One year as a setup man and you believe he's married to the position?"

No, you are missing the point. Everyone I think would like Brandon to be a starter in his career. He has the potential, but that is something that needs to be developed, and Morrow has done nothing to prove he could be an effective starter at the MLB level yet. He's young, and has all the same problems that pitchers his age have. It isn't fair to Brandon or anyone else to just throw him into a role he clearly isn't ready for.

Almost all pitchers need time in the minors to develop. I see no evidence that Morrow is any different. That's the point.

"Apparantly, you feel he's either ruined for life or will be spending an inordinant amount of time becoming a starter for the M's."

No, I think he was rushed to the big leagues when he wasn't ready. And he did nothing to disprove that. The only reason Brandon Morrow was able to survive in the big leagues while despite having horrendous control was because he lived off of his fastball. You can't do that as a starter. He needs to develop just like every other player needs to develop, and throwing him into a role that he isn't ready for would do nothing but hurt that development.

People need to start thinking about the long term future, and not just the short term gain.

"My reasoning is clear: Talent alone doesn't make you a worthy big-league starter." ---Adam
.
I never said it did. And, if you were reading my comments with a half-way open mind you'd grasp that. However, you're almost making it sound like talent is a handicap that needs to be overcome. If you don't believe he has the talent to be a starter for the Mariners then say so. Otherwise, what are you trying to say here? That that talent needs to be "honed"? Didn't I already say that? Oh, I forgot, that was met with your "???", so I guess you really didn't comprehend the point I was making, after all.

No, I don't comprehend your point, because there really is none.

I'm not how you can possibly construe my statements to demonstrate a belief that Morrow's talent is a hinderance. And I've never even implied that his talent isn't great enough to be a starter. Quit mischaracterizing my argument.

Here's the point. MORROW ISN'T DEVELOPED ENOUGH TO BE A STARTER. Yes, he needs "honing." But the whole point is that winter ball and spring training won't have him ready to start in Seattle come April. He needs a lot of time, not just a little, to be a good starter for us.

Felix needed it and got it. Andrew Miller needed it. Lincecum needed it. Now Morrow does, or else his development could be hampered even further.

Get it?

"So now we face the reality that Fontaine wasted a 1st round pick on an average reliever and passed up a #1 starter with electric stuff."

You've poo pood all over Morrows stuff for a while now. He certainly doesn't have bad stuff. He's breaking pitches show flashes of being plus ML pitches, and his fastball is already the one of the best in the entire organization (major or minor leagues). Brandon Morrow has the potential to be a TOR starter.

And Lincecum wasn't drafted because of his funky mechanics, and risk of injury. This isn't fantasy baseball. There is a cost risk assesment that must be done, and I don't blame the Mariners for passing up Lincecum.

Oh, look it's byebyebroussard again,

"that is called exaggeration and wishful thinking. at 17, felix hernandez was a poor boy in south america who played for his school."

Not only is that statement borderline racist, it's also completely ignorant. But then you've never been one to let facts get in the way of your opinions.

Felix Hernandez started his major league career at age 17 in short season A ball, posting a 2.29 ERA in 55.0 innings along with 24 BB, and 73 K's. He was then promoted to long season A ball where he posted a 1.93 ERA in 14.0 innings, walking 3, and striking out 18.

Is it so hard for people to just do some research before they post?

That should read professional career, not "major league" career.

He certainly doesn't have bad stuff.

I never said it was bad stuff. What I said was he's looking like an average reliever at the present day. I believe his fastball velocity is a plus, but there's a lack of deception and movement on it. This isn't fantasy talk, it's common language used among pro scouts.

He's breaking pitches show flashes of being plus ML pitches, and his fastball is already the one of the best in the entire organization (major or minor leagues).

LOL! This isn't Nintendo Wii. Morrow does not have the best fastball in the entire organization. Right now Felix has the best fastball on the team. Mark Lowe in '06 healthy displayed the best fastball I've seen in a while. Lots of movement. It was so good he could throw it all the time. Morrow cannot survive on his fastball velocity without movement.

Brandon Morrow has the potential to be a TOR starter.

Not even close. I see him as a reliever like a Matt Lidstrom at best in 3 years.

I also suggest you watch Brandon Webb tonight and see his breaking pitches. That's a plus pitch, not Morrow and his weak splitter or straight as an arrow fastball.

"that is called exaggeration and wishful thinking. at 17, felix hernandez was a poor boy in south america who played for his school."
The only person that would see something racist in that statement would be a racist in my opinion.
I don't know if it is factual...

"that is called exaggeration and wishful thinking. at 17, felix hernandez was a poor boy in south america who played for his school."
The only person that would see something racist in that statement would be a racist in my opinion.
I don't know if it is factual...

and I don't blame the Mariners for passing up Lincecum.

You should blame Bavasi and Fontaine. Especially when Timmy will be contending for Cy Young trophies for the next decade. Most reasonable people agree that passing on Lincecum was a mistake.

What about Lowe, any hope he could work into a starter or does he have too many issues going on too? The guy was white-knuckle great last year, scarey ride but he got the job done.

Here we go again...be afraid, be very afraid. The other GM's are licking their chops at the prospect of fleecing the IDIOT.

Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi, who told reporters last week that Jones and catching prospect Jeff Clement won't be traded, might loosen his grip on those two if the right player could be had.

"If something blew us away, we would," Bavasi said.

All it would take to blow Bavasi away is Jeff Conine, Aubrey Huff, or Kevin Millar. He loves that kind of player. (1st base/left field specialist)


terry is right, only the race-obsessed racist could miscontrue that comment as racially motivated. People like that see racism around every corner because they look at someone, judge them by their appearance, and put them in a victim group that they feel needs to be defended. There is nothing more racist than telling someone that they need your help because of their skin color. I've dealt with it all my life. It's the same people that think of Ichiro as an "asian baseball player" instead of just a baseball player. The same people who go through every major league roster and count the number of "african americans." It's the same people who bring race into a discussion of Ichiro's statistics, then tell me to stop writing in ebonics. (and aren't criticized for it).


Here is my All MLB Team (Offense) for this year:
1st Base - Prince Fielder, 2nd Base - Chase Utley, SS - Jimmy Rollins, 3rd Base - Alex Rodriguez, Catcher - Jorge Posada, DH - David Ortiz, LF - Matt Holliday, CF - Curtis Granderson, RF - Magglio Ordonez.
I'm surprised that there were so many players from the inferior National League, but I couldn't be objective and leave those guys out.

Right now Felix has the best fastball on the team.

Actually, I think JJ's fastball is better. He can locate his much better than Felix can.

"Most reasonable people agree that passing on Lincecum was a mistake." --- ResinIC
.
What's this 'most reasonable people would agree' with me garbage? Who made you the voice for the most reasonable people? Did you take a poll of all the most reasonable people on this point?
.
The truth is eight teams passed on Lincecum for the exact reasons stated. The consensus among scouts is that because of his physical status and funky windup Lincecum was, and still remains a high risk.
.
I have no issue with anyone who wants to be a Tim Lincecum fan. But, to speak of the next ten years of his career, and Brandon Morrow's for that matter, as if it's a "fate accompli" is being rather immature. Truth is Lincecum could easily end up in a roll you've already got Morrow in, if he doesn't blow out his arm altogether.

I meant stature, not status.

lol. Fate Accompli? That's almost as delicious as "Milk Toast." (pun intended)

"Most reasonable people agree that passing on Lincecum was a mistake."

And most reasonable people don't have much of a clue about the factors you have to consider when making a draft pick.

"The only person that would see something racist in that statement would be a racist in my opinion.
I don't know if it is factual..."

Felix Hernandez's family was a typical middle class Venezuelan family. The only reason someone would just blurt out that he was some poor kid (which he wasn't) is because he was Venezuelan. It's a stereotype, that isn't true.

Resin,

"I believe his fastball velocity is a plus, but there's a lack of deception and movement on it."

You keep saying this but it just isn't supported by anything. Thanks to the great work of Jeff over at Lookoutlanding.com we know that Brandon Morrows fastballs that were clocked at over 96 MPH were able to get swinging strikes 19.2% of the time. His slower two seam fastballs, in the 90 to 95 range, got swinging strikes 20.7% of the time. The league average is 14%.

Brandon Morrows fastball was practically unhittable, and it wasn't all velocity. He blew away some of the best pitchers in baseball in the frequency with which he missed bats with his fastball.

"Right now Felix has the best fastball on the team."

Felix Hernandez swinging strike percentage? 16%.

Brandon Morrow was able to get hitters to swing through his two seamer almost 5% more often than Felix Hernandez. While Felix's fastball is still a + pitch, it isn't the best fastball in the organization. His four seam fastball is easily his worst pitch.

The notion that Morrow doesn't have a great fastball is a complete myth supported by nothing.

"Not even close."

If you say so...

"That's a plus pitch, not Morrow and his weak splitter or straight as an arrow fastball."

Yet he still managed to get people to swing at miss at it more often that Felix Hernandez. Funny how that works isn't it?

Faceplant, just curious. What is Putz's swing-and-miss ratio on his fastball? I'd think his would be the best of anyone's.

Oops, fait accompli. Thanks for catching that for me. Sometimes I sure wish we had the ability to edit our comments. Then again, I guess people would go back and change their entire point at times, so its probably best that we don't.

I have appreciated your comments over the season. I feel you have given some very fine insights to the Mariniers and their various situations.
My hope for the off season is that we don't trade a Seattle Slew for a plow horse. I remember the trade of Varitek and Lowe for Heathcliff Slocum. I wouldn't want us to trade Jones and Clement, for example, for someone that couldn't give us some instant and consistant offense.
Keep up the good work and I'll look forward to your work next season.

"Faceplant, just curious. What is Putz's swing-and-miss ratio on his fastball? I'd think his would be the best of anyone's."

I'm not sure of the data on just Putz fastball. His overall swinging strike percentage was a whopping 21%!