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Times reporter Bob Condotta keeps the news coming about the Montlake Dawgs.

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October 31, 2008 1:39 PM

Pac-10 picks

Posted by Bob Condotta

We'll take a brief respite from the Jim Mora talk for my weekly Pac-10 picks.

And so much for balance in the Pac-10 this year.

Here we are, with four games in the first week of November, and only one is judged to be closer 15 points by the oddsmarkers with two at 30 points or more, and one --- the UW-USC game --- offering what is thought to be the largest spread in Pac-10 history, as much as 46-and-a-half depending on what line you read.

Speaking of which, I'm eschewing my usual policy of breaking down the UW game in a separate post since there's really little to say about this game except that the Trojans are simply better than the Huskies at every position.

So I'll present all four picks here, with spreads from USA Today, and hoping I can do a little better against the points this week. I was 4-0 straight up last week to improve to 38-12 for the season, but I was 2-2 against the spread to leave me at 28-22, one of my misses coming on the Huskies (not sure why, but I thought they'd score some points on Notre Dame and keep it close).

On with the picks:

WASHINGTON AT USC (Trojans by 46-and-a-half): It'll be interesting to see what kind of effort UW puts forth given the events of the week. But there's nothing to suggest this game should be close. USC gets big check marks in every position. The question is whether the Huskies can score --- UW's only shutout since 1981 came when it lost here 38-0 in 2004. Also of note --- a loss will tie the school record for most consecutive losses, which was 10 during the 1968-69 seasons. USC 55, UW 6.

ARIZONA STATE AT OREGON STATE (Beavers by 15): Return of Dennis Erickson to Corvallis isn't a big story anymore. And with his struggles and OSU's continuing ability to surprise, not many in Corvallis are pining for the old days. ASU has lost five in a row and another will be the longest losing streak of Erickson's career. Part of me thinks Erickson will find a way to keep this one closer than expected. But the more rational side looks at the stats and the locale of the game and figures OSU should win going away. OSU 35, ASU 17.

WASHINGTON STATE AT STANFORD (Cardinal by 30): Interesting that a team scoring just 23.8 points a game is favored to win a conference game by 30. But that speaks to the weakness of the Cougars. A bye week to get healthy and regroup might mean a better effort for WSU. Certainly, the Cougars need one to provide some evidence that these last five games won't just be more of the same. WSU's QB situation, however, doesn't inspire much hope that the Cougars will keep it too close. STANFORD 34, WSU 3.

OREGON AT CAL (Bears by 3): A touchdown spread makes this the game of the week in the Pac-10. Winner stays in the Rose Bowl race for another week, loser begins pondering El Paso, which should be enough motivation for both. Ducks have scored an astounding 44 TDs in eight games this year --- UW has 15 in seven. The whole key to this one figures to be Oregon's running game --- Bears are second in the Pac-10 against the run at 95.7 per game while Oregon leads the conference in rushing at 278.8. Winner of that battle should win the game. One commenter raised a good point to me this week about Oregon's wins --- they've come against the bottom four teams in the Pac-10, plus Utah State and Purdue. But Cal's Pac-10 wins aren't any better (ASU, WSU and UCLA). Ducks will get revenge for the killer loss last season in Eugene. OREGON 34, CAL 27.

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