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Times reporter Bob Condotta keeps the news coming about the Montlake Dawgs.

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October 17, 2008 2:56 PM

The pick --- Beavers

Posted by Bob Condotta

Okay, no suspense needed for this one. Given the way UW has played of late, and its injury situation at quarterback and running back, there isn't much realistic reason right now to pick the Huskies to beat much of anybody.

Not to say it can't happen --- one of the biggest upsets in college football history happened in this stadium and in this series in 1985 when UW lost to OSU 21-20 as 37-point favorites. Those Beavers teams had lost a combined 97-0 the previous two weeks, the reason the spread grew so large by gameday.

And the home field has to be factored in, even if the atmosphere may be as chilly as a Mike Riley-Paul Wulff handshake.

OSU is 0-3 on the road this year, while the Huskies had chances to win both the BYU and Stanford games at home, teams that are comparable to the Beavers. But the former was with Jake Locker, and the latter could have probably been a little worse than the final score indicated.

What's impossible to know right now is what kind of effort the Huskies will bring. If it's similar to the intensity the team had at Arizona, then this one will go straight into the ugly file quickly. But being at home, coming off a bye, one would think that the Huskies might have a little more fight in them for this one.

Strategically, the key to this one seems pretty simple --- either UW at least slows down Jacquizz Rodgers a little, or this one gets out of hand early. On paper, there's no real reason to think the Huskies will do that. But again, it is a home game, and Rodgers is also a true freshman who might be prone to an off day. If Rodgers gets going early, that will loosen up the UW defense for some deep passes from OSU QB Lyle Moevao, the strategy the Beavers used here two years ago when Yvenson Bernard got going in the first half and then Sammie Stroughter took over in the second half. Realistically, OSU's going to score a bunch of points no matter what. UW at least has to make them hard points to make this a game.

Offensively, UW faces a further challenge now with Casey Bulyca sidelined alongside Locker --- some might have pegged those as two of the three or four most key players on the whole team in August. UW has to get a running game going or an aggressive OSU defense will tee off on Ronnie Fouch. Fouch has thrown just one interception so far this year, but if he gets a lot of pressure tomorrow, that stat could rise in a hurry. At least he'll have D'Andre Goodwin back to serve as a go-to receiver, which it was obvious he lacked at Arizona.

But OSU's secondary is said to be a lot healthier this week, with the dreaded Al Afalava among those returning.

Ultimately, I gave every edge to OSU --- QB, RB, WR, OL, DL, LB, DB and special teams. And ultimately, I'm calling for a 42-24 OSU win. Giving the Beavers every edge might seem to indicate a wider gap than 18 points. But I think the home field and the fact that if UW has any fight left, it has to show it tomorrow, will keep the Huskies in it for a while.

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