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Times reporter Bob Condotta keeps the news coming about the Montlake Dawgs.

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October 17, 2008 1:45 PM

Pac-10 picks, week seven

Posted by Bob Condotta

A little late, but I really had to take a lot of time breaking down the USC-WSU matchup this week.

And I need to make sure I get that one right as I had another off week, against the spread, anyway, going just 1-3, USC getting an annoying cover as a 27-and-a-half point favorite and winning 28-0 (couldn't ASU have gotten a rouge or whatever that thing is in Canadian Football to get one point to at least backend the spread?)

So while I'm now a glittering 32-10 straight-up, I'm a more pedestrian 24-18 against the spread.

Anyway, on with the picks, with spreads as always from the Daily Line of the Seattle Times:

USC AT WASHINGTON STATE (Trojans by 42-and-a-half): so the seriously tricky part of this one is the spread, thought to be the largest in any game between two Pac-10 conference teams. USC, as has already been proven in its loss at OSU this year, tends to sometimes come out a little flat, especially on the road, so while there is no conceivable way they could lose this game, it seems possible they could maybe get sloppy and either give away some points offensively or give some up defensively. But if USC comes to play, the big question in this one will be whether WSU can keep alive its streak of scoring in 280 straight games, which dates to a 1984 game at Ohio State. That's the second-longest active streak in the nation behind Michigan's 294 and the fourth-longest in history. For some reason, I think the streak lives, though the Cougars will go down, and go down hard. USC 58, WSU 6.

CAL AT ARIZONA (Bears by two-and-a-half:) Mike Stoops, who seemed off the hot seat after that 4-1 start, is right back on it after a tough loss at Stanford, and with USC coming to town next, this feels like something of a must-win for the Wildcats. Cal, meanwhile, is the only Pac-10 team without a conference loss and other than the lay-down at Maryland, has looked like the second-best team in the conference. Bears also apparently have a lot of motivation, feeling the Wildcats over-celebrated a win over Cal in Tucson in 2006. Biggest difference I see is Cal's rushing attack (180 yards per game) against an Arizona run defense that isn't really all that good. If that trend holds up, Bears should escape. CAL 31, ARIZONA 27.

STANFORD AT UCLA (Cardinal by one-and-a-half): This line has dropped from three points at the beginning of the week, and following the money is never a bad strategy in gambling or Watergate investigations, only one of which is applicable here. Another good strategy is following which team has the better running attack, which in this case is Stanford --- the Cardinal is averaging 184 yards per game while UCLA is allowing 171.3. So I'm going to go with the better running game as opposed to the smart money this time. STANFORD 24, UCLA 14.

And as always, the UW-Oregon State pick will come a little later.

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