Husky Football Blog
Times reporter Bob Condotta keeps the news coming about the Montlake Dawgs.
September 12, 2008 2:38 PM
The pick --- Sooners
Posted by Bob Condotta
Sorry, the Huskies are bound to win one of these games someday, and you can take solice in that I'm sure I'll be wrong about having picked that one ahead of time when it comes.
But I just don't see it happening tomorrow.
The Sooners ripped through a pretty good Cincinnati team last week, gaining 592 yards, and logic dictates that they should be able to plow through the Huskies at a pretty similar rate. The homefield edge will surely help the Huskies a bit, and maybe unnerve the Sooners a little at times. But if Oklahoma comes close to that output, hard to imagine they don't score 30-40 points. Then it's all about the Huskies being able to keep pace, and with Oklahoma having some youth at spots --- three sophomores starting on the line, for instance --- UW should be able to make some headway.
But again, the safe bet is that they score some, but not enough.
Here's my breakdown of the positions:
QB -- Tie. I thought Jake Locker made a little bit of a breakthrough last week with that last-minute drive, and he's as healthy now as he's been all season. Still, Sam Bradford is really good, as well, and has the luxury of a lot more proven players around him.
RB -- OU. We can all agree David Freeman looks like a good prospect, and reality is he may be a better fit for what UW needs right now than Chris Polk. But DeMarco Murray is a lot more proven.
WR -- OU. Another spot where maybe in a year or two this is a tougher call. But the Sooners already have two different receivers who have more than 100 yards receiving in a game this season and added to their depth with the emergence of redshirt freshman Ryan Broyles last week. His 141 yards was the best debut ever for a Sooner receiver.
OL -- OU. Another veteran O-line that the Huskies get to face --- three seniors and two juniors who have a combined 116 starts. UW's line played better last week than the opener --- and I'll admit, better than I thought on first glance. But it still doesn't seem quite as dominant as hoped, and will be needed today.
DL -- OU. OU's line is young in class --- a junior and three sophomores. But they players on the line with a combined 60 starts in their two-deep up front. That's about twice the number for the Huskies, whom I wouldn't be surprised to see go a little more with a three-man front tomorrow in part to get more of those experienced LBs on the field. And it goes without saying that the Huskies have to get more pass rush --- as well-documented, UW has no sacks so far.
LB -- OU. Here's a spot where I think the Huskies can take some advantage of the Sooners, who are fairly young here and have a proven history of struggling with spread option offenses. If the Huskies commit to that a little more tomorrow and get this group off-balance it could lead to some big plays. That said, when comparing the two groups, you have to give OU an edge, if maybe a little slighter than at the other defensive spots.
DB --- OU UW's safety position will be interesting to watch tomorrow, to say the least. Johri Fogerson has a lot of self-confidence, which is a good thing as he's set to make his college debut in tough circumstances against the Sooners. Tripper Johnson also is set to make his first start (one that's not in a three-safety set, anyway) further adding to the uncertainty in the back end.
Special teams --- OU. The Sooners have shown some weakness here --- a 97-yard KO return for a touchdown last week, and OU has a freshman kicker who has made just one field goal. On the other hand, OU is No. 6 in the nation in kickoff returns and the Sooners have a history of good units here. UW was better last week until the final missed PAT, which unfortunately was sadly emblematic of recent problems here.
Add it up, and it looks like a solid win for the Sooners. Again, the home field helps the Huskies in this one --- I think the edge was more than the oft-stated three points usually given to home teams. I think UW will actually come out pretty fired up, having put the BYU loss behind them fairly well (and I have no real evidence for that, just a feeling). But ultimately, I see the Sooners taking control, 44-20.

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