Husky Football Blog
Times reporter Bob Condotta keeps the news coming about the Montlake Dawgs.
August 10, 2008 6:00 PM
Posted by Bob Condotta
The Huskies had the day off --- and as a reminder, they will be off the next two Sundays, as well --- allowing me to catch up on a little reading.
One item on the book shelf was the 2008 Pro Football Prospectus, but together by the guys at FootballOutsiders.com.
Though about 98 percent of the book is devoted to a mathematical analysis of the NFL, there are also a few college football articles, including one in which an author uses several mathematical formulas to predict the season.
It's a complicated formula that essentially takes into account returning starters, QB experience, head coach experience, conference strength, and schedule. The author says the formula has proven to have a 64 percent accuracy rate. UW had better hope to be in that other 36 percent this year as the author predicts that UW will go 3-6 in Pac-10 play and 3-9 overall, the fewest wins of any Pac-10 team.
Their projected standings are as follows:
1, USC, 8-1, 10-2
2, Oregon, 6-3, 9-3
3, Cal 6-3, 8-4
4, ASU 5-4, 7-4
5, Oregon State 4-5, 6-6
UCLA 4-5, 5-7
Arizona 4-5, 6-6
8, UW 3-6, 3-9
WSU 3-6 5-7
10, Stanford 2-7, 4-8
Like every other prediction out there, these could easily turn out to be wrong, given injuries, momentum, and a host of other factors that will inevitably influence the season.
One of the most interesting things to me about it was that a mathematical formula basically came up with the same projections as most of the other pre-season magazines, as well as the Pac-10 media poll.
Also out this week is Sports Illustrated's annual season preview. It's all available on-line, as well, including the ranking of every team in the nation, which is again dire for UW. SI has the Huskies at No. 70 overall ahead of only Stanford and WsU.
SI picks the Huskies to go 3-6 in Pac-10 play and 4-8 overall, beating Notre Dame in non-conference play (as the mag calls for BYU and Oklahoma to each lose only one game, each in conference play).
SI's Pac-10 preview doesn't say much about the Huskies other than listing Jake Locker as one of five Players to Watch.
UW NOT ALONE ON QB INJURY WATCH --- As some of you have pointed out, UW is hardly alone in worrying about the health of its QB. UCLA learned today that Ben Olson will be out roughly eight weeks after breaking his foot in a non-contact drill Saturday.
All for now.