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Times reporter Bob Condotta keeps the news coming about the Montlake Dawgs.

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July 12, 2008 1:09 PM

Ducks 10-and-a-half point favorites over UW

Posted by Bob Condotta

After reading in the LA Times USC blog the other day that the Golden Nugget sports book in Las Vegas had already set a couple of lines for Trojans games this fall, I decided to see if they had any for UW games.

None are officially posted yet ---- the casino has opened for betting only games it thinks will get an exceptional amount of play this season. But Tony Miller, who is the director of the sports book there, told me that a line has been set for the UW-Oregon game, just not posted yet. The line, he said, will open with Oregon a 10-and-a-half point favorite over the Huskies.

In explaining the line, Miller said he thinks the Huskies have a chance to be a better team this season, but that he expects Oregon, despite the fact that it has to find a new QB, "to still be one of the best teams in the Pac-10 this year after USC.''

In fact, Miller said he thinks the line will prove to be a little conservative, saying it won't surprise him if bettors move the line even more in Oregon's favor.

"On the opening weekend, people tend to bet on the favorites, especially those playing at home,'' he said.

One thing to remember is that the lines are set to entice an equal amount of action on each team --- that's the one way the sports books know they will win since they keep the five percent vigorish, or handling fee, no matter what.

Since I was calling from Washington, Miller volunteered a line on WSU's opener, as well, saying that Okahoma State will be a six-point favorite over the Cougars in a game that will be played at Qwest Field a few hours before UW's game in Eugene on Aug. 30.

,

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Posted by TurbineSeaplane

1:50 PM, Jul 12, 2008

I hope it gets up to a 17-21 point spread by game time.

All the better for motivation and psyching the Ducks out.

Posted by kr

1:56 PM, Jul 12, 2008

Seems reasonable since we all remember how well the Ducks did last year without Dixon as quarterback. Since he's healthy and will be back in time for the opener... oh wait, who's the Quackers quarterback again? No worries, it's a simple offense to learn and run, that's why Dixon was making perfect reads the whole time he was a starter. Oh, no, wait, that's not right either.

Make the line whatever you want, Dawgs still beat Ducks.

Posted by Husky Fan In New York

2:12 PM, Jul 12, 2008

FWIW, here are the odds from sportsbook.com on who will win the Pac-10 championship. Dawgs look to finish tied for 6th/7th with Arizona according to them. First quick thoughts are that I would put UCLA odds much lower than that, probably 20-1 as well. Despite their impressive coordinators, I don't think UCLA will do very well next year and probably won't go to a bowl in 2008.

Arizona
20 - 1

Arizona State
4 - 1

California
8 - 1

Oregon
7 - 1

Oregon State
40 - 1

Stanford
30 - 1

UCLA
8 - 1

USC
2 - 7

Washington
20 - 1

Washington State
40 - 1

Posted by mattysimone

3:01 PM, Jul 12, 2008

if erickson takes that team deep and crushes someone in a bcs game you go get him and give the SOB 5 million a year! look what he did with OSU haha. I also dont like that the house loves oregon that much......to much money around that program with knight. all these scandals goin on in sports and it just really makes me wonder about UO.

Posted by Mix

3:08 PM, Jul 12, 2008

yeah, those odds on UCLA are ridiculous, you can just look at Pac10 history, what was the last team to win the conference with a 3rd or 4th string quarterback, I'm guessing you'd have to go back over 50 years to find one...

now if we were talking 2009 or 2010, then I think UCLA is going to be great, Chow and Walker are an awesome combination. Then by 2011, they'll begin the NeuWeisel implosion....

Posted by onewoodwacker

3:11 PM, Jul 12, 2008

Underdawgs to the Daffyducks?

If a 10.5 point spread is all that separates Oregon ( "....still be one of the best teams in the Pac-10 this year after USC.") at home against the lowly 7th rated Huskies, I'd say the Pac -10 is up for anyone and the Oddsmakers know it. Those Las Vegas guys do this for a living and make a very good living at it. This game is much closer than some of the Duck fans think.

Anyway, for the real point - Oregon needs to have 10.5 points taken from them every game for making the rest of us have look at those damn ugly uniforms!! The White and Green road uni's are OK but the rest of their ensemble needs to be lit up. Do they really not know how big of an embarrassment they are to the rest of the league? If Phil Knight would have had the rest of his Nike Wear products looking like the UO Yuk’s uniforms he’d have ended up I the soup line.

Posted by Three Dots

3:19 PM, Jul 12, 2008

Dawgs..


... will...


.. shock....

... in 2008.....


Our time is returning fellows...feel it... know it...


...

Posted by BoiseTruth

4:03 PM, Jul 12, 2008


I've seen a number of experts trashing UCLA, and rating them low in the PAC-10. They say UCLA doesn't have any talent. I don't understand. Here's how Scout ranked their recruiting classes nationally.

2004 - 24th

2005 - 24th

2006 - 20th

2007 - 36th ( they only signed 11 players, and 7 were 4 stars or higher)

2008 - 10th

Neu may be a shmuck, but he has a history of inspiring players that he inherited from other coaches. Much like Erickson, he gets people to buy in initially. I know their QB's are on crutches, but there was a transfer QB that had a coach for a father, and might be able to pick Chow's stuff up pretty well by game time. His JC numbers were pretty good. Here's a link to Kevin Craft, the guy that may be the UCLA QB. Hopefully, we'll kick their butts, but don't take it for granted. Neu's sneaky, and the recruiting stats say they have talent. Whether that talent is team balanced I don't know.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/pac10

Posted by Tarn

4:23 PM, Jul 12, 2008

Good. You gotta love being the underdog going into Eugene and coming out the winner. I like this...expect it throughout the first half of the seaon.
I've already order my tickets for the Arizona game.

Posted by Jordan

4:25 PM, Jul 12, 2008

We'll win.

Posted by duxzzz

4:53 PM, Jul 12, 2008

hahahahaha not nearly enough, no opposing team not named USC has won in autzen since 03 and UDUMB wont lawl

Posted by Short Term Memory Loss

4:57 PM, Jul 12, 2008

Cal won there last year.

Posted by duck fans forever

5:28 PM, Jul 12, 2008

I love the duck fans that post here. They continue to make their beloved University proud.

Posted by jed

7:41 PM, Jul 12, 2008

I also expect the line to rise as the game gets closer. All the better for the UW to make a statement. But it won't be easy.

Posted by NorCalDawgFan

8:02 PM, Jul 12, 2008

Only 7 more weeks! Oregon is going to look like the 2007 Michigan team. Heavily favored at home.

Posted by bomberbp

9:52 PM, Jul 12, 2008

Ya know what I love about ducks fans....NOTHIN!!!
Hey duxzzz,,,,you said "no opposing team not named USC has won in autzen since 03 and UDUMB wont lawl"...well you are so wrong, more wrong than I thought. Seems the ducks hava actually lost SEVEN games at eugene NOT to USC in that period...her ya go you fantasy land freak:
9/27/02 WSU 55-16
9/11/04 Indiana 30-24
10/2/04 ASU 28-13
11/13/04 UCLA 34-26
11/18/06 Arizona 30-28
9/29/07 CAL 31-24
12/1/07 BEAVERS 38-31
WE know our Huskys have sucked but we don't make up lies about them. You said only USC had won at Eugene since 2003...do you even go to the games? Do you even read the paper? How could you be off by SEVEN games??? Only one of those games was less than a touchdown. JEEEEEZ! I happen to think the ducks are a pretty good team but how could you be so out of touch with reality??? Do you thingk oregon has been to the Rose Bowl several times in the last four years as well?

Man....get a grip!!!

Posted by marc

10:01 PM, Jul 12, 2008

That pointspread is upside down!

Posted by jh

11:12 PM, Jul 12, 2008

...willingham's 2008 loss #1...

Posted by T-Dub

11:23 PM, Jul 12, 2008

Great work on the blog, definately one of my daily highlights...

One request for the upcoming season-post your record against the spread, not just straight up. I would be really interested to see how someone fairs who follows the conference as closely as you. Anybody can look at the over-under and the point spread and come up with the pick and be pretty close most of the time, it takes a bit more to pick one side or the other of the spread. Thanks again.

Posted by huskies91

2:40 AM, Jul 13, 2008

Please take off the JH 11:43 pm comment. It sounds like some of the bloggers posting on Foxsports.com that get pretty obscene. This does not need to stay on the website after the administrator has done their work.

Posted by nobody special

8:20 AM, Jul 13, 2008

I just hope that I'll be watching an actual game this year. Oregon embarassed Washington last year in Seattle. If it is only a 10 point difference, and the Huskies can get that close, I'd call it a moral victory.

What did the Ducks put up last year? Something like 600+ yards of total offense?

Posted by Husky Fan In New York

9:14 AM, Jul 13, 2008

Give me a break, no they didn't. It was tied going into the 4th quarter despite and Kent Baer couldn't figure out a way to stop the run so they defense got gassed...no Stewart for UO and no Baer for UW makes it entirely different.

Posted by Jordan

11:17 AM, Jul 13, 2008

HFNY,

I completely agree with you. If you were at the game you noticed how worried Duck fans looked at the end of the third quarter. I had two next to me that were talking the whole first half as Duck fans usually do and they shut up real quick after the third quarter. Unfortunately, the Husky defense gave them something to talk about again in the 4th.

The post by duuuxxxx is a usual one. It is amazing to me how delusional duck fans are. No team not named USC has won at Autzen since 03'. Are you kidding me?????? My favorite was one making an argument that Oregon is a top tier program in the country. Not the PAc-10, the COUNTRY. Why is that exactly because they have flashy uniforms and a nice locker room with an egotistical billionaire supporting them? Boise State has had more of a top tier argument the last five years than Oregon.

TO ALL DUCK FANS FIVE THINGS YOU NEED TO LEARN:

1) PAC-10 AND NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS ARE NOT HANDED OUT AFTER SIX GAMES. YOU HAVE TO PLAY THE WHOLE SEASON

2) PHIL KNIGHT'S MONEY DOES NOT MAKE YOU A TOP TIER PROGRAM. YOU HAVE TO WIN MEANINGFUL GAMES AND CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

3) A MEANINGFUL GAME IS A BOWL GAME THAT MATTERS (ROSE, ORANGE, FIESTA, SUGAR, NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME)

4) DIXON THE MOUTH AND STEWART WERE GOOD PLAYERS BUT THEY'RE GONE. AND YOU GUYS DIDN'T WIN ANYTHING LAST YEAR WITH THEM. CLOSE DOES NOT COUNT EVEN IF YOUR WIFE OR GIRLFRIEND SAYS IT DOES.

5) YOU OVERPAID FOR YOUR EDUCATION. ASK FOR A REFUND. AND THEY'RE STILL NOT SURE IF YOUR PARENTS WERE MARRIED


Last Oregon Rose Bowl win: 1917!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by 3 of 5

1:08 PM, Jul 13, 2008

Arizona and Oregon State have won in Auzen as well.

Posted by duxwin

1:25 PM, Jul 13, 2008

The Ducks will simply beat the Huskies for the 5TH YEAR IN A ROW LOSERS!!!!!

Posted by nobody special

1:26 PM, Jul 13, 2008

Let's just hope it is a better game then last year's contest was. The only thing in Husky Stadium that stopped the Ducks were the endzone's. Oregon ran for 465 yards, and dropped 661 yards of total offense on Washington. Heck, Oregon's third string running back put up 100+ yards that game The defensive line got absolutely manhandled. Most of Oregon's O-Line comes back in-tact from last year, and even with Stewart gone, there are no questions at Running Back for the Ducks where they get back J. Johnson and pick up the nation's top JC Running Back.

Regarding the QB situation, the Offensive Co-ordinator said in an ESPN interview that prior to his injury, Cody (new QB) was actually pushing Dixon last year for playing time. They guy at QB that took apart South Florida in their bowl game is actually three-deep at QB right now. So, if you have two guys that are better than him...I don't think you have questions at QB either.

On defense, 3/4 of their secondary is on the Jim Thorpe watch list this year. NIck Reed lead the Pac-10 in sacks last year, and they get most of their linebackers back this year. Next to SC, this is probably the best defense in the Pac-10.

Ducks will surprise some folks this year. They have a solid team and some pretty huge intangibles (Autzen). I don't think they'll get past USC and ASU for the Conference Championship, but they are certainly capable of doing so.

Posted by 3 of 5

2:07 PM, Jul 13, 2008

nobody special,

I partially agree with you on certain points. Namely the duck Oline will be quite formidable. I disagree that the ducks have the QB situation figured out. The ducks clearly have not found a way to replace dixon. The game vs Southern Florida was hardly a deal sealer. USF had shown they were overrated long before they faced oregon. Also, the three games prior to that one, the Duck offense simply looked lost.

The problem for UW when they played oregon wasn't stewart or any other running back, it was Dixon. He was so effective at hiding the ball that the defense was stopped in their tracks, and by the time they figured out who had it, they were out of place. None of the QBs that will play Washington this year will be able to do that. I do think that Oregon will get some good ground yardage, but they won't be able to do what they did to UW last year. It will be about powering through UW's young D line rather than trickery. Let's face it though, the Ducks will have to deal with an Oline that is just as good, and a running game that is even better, when factoring in Locker.

Posted by joes tracer blows

2:13 PM, Jul 13, 2008

Nobody special,
And McLaren said Richie Sexson would be the comeback player of the year.........Let's not take what coaches say in interviews too seriously. What they say in public often has emotional/motivational designs. And yes, the duck qb had a nice bowl game. But bowl games by themselves are different animals than going through the regular season due to the length of time to prepare players and schemes.

Posted by Formerly Guest

2:38 PM, Jul 13, 2008

Nobody Special,
I agree with your points. The Ducks put on an amazing offensive show. Maybe they will again.

Sure, let's hope it is a better game. Let's also fear that everyone says UO will have this killer defense. Maybe they will.

Let's also remember that our QB only completed about 1/3 of his passes against them last year. In addition, let's recall that despite that statistic, and UO being able to move and score at will, that the game was tied towards the end of the 3rd quarter.

Finally, let's recall that in the 4th quarter, UW had little chance for many reasons, one of which was the lack of depth made us a 3.5 quarter team at best.

Let's hope for better this year. But if they can put over 600 yards on us pretty easy last year and can't shake us until the 4th quarter, well...it seems possible that the dawgs can beat them.

I didn't see the whole game. In fact I saw less than half. So I may be wrong, but I did not come away with the impression that the dawgs played way over their heads that game.

Autzen is a great advanatge for UO, and the dawgs are young. But the Ducks can be beaten there. We will see on 8/30 if it will be by us.

Posted by Huskiebob

2:47 PM, Jul 13, 2008

Nobody special is aptly named. In telling us how great the Ducks are, he doesn't even have the name of the QB (Costa not Cody) that was hurt right. Anybody this poorly informed probably IS a Duck graduate but clueless about their football team as well as many other things in life!.

Posted by cinreds08

3:00 PM, Jul 13, 2008

realdawg is reporting #1 slb visiting in september good news,although we have no commitments maybe ty willingham and his staff might be on to something good like manti te'o,kennard,coleman,wilson te out of utah and u have to figure some decommitments if huskies have a good year GO DAWGS!!!!

Posted by Bob Condotta

6:42 PM, Jul 13, 2008

A little bit too much name-calling on here so I've deleted a few posts and may have to get a little more hard-line on that. I don't mind some back-and-forth but let's try to do it without resorting to name-calling.

Also, for the fan asking me to pick against the spread this year, I plan to do just that and will again invite any fans who want to participate to post their picks each week, as well.

I'll also have a a post or two up later tonight with a few items of interest.

Posted by kdawg

8:26 PM, Jul 13, 2008

Bob, I have a question that I don't know whether you can follow up on or not since it is a recruiting question. On the scout.com website under the Husky '09 recruits, there are a few three and four star recruits that claim a high interest in attending the Udub, however, the school has not made them an offer. Is there any story here, such as discipline or grade issues that have prevented an offer from being made? Just curious. And, if it's outside of your scope of responsibilities, that okay too.

Posted by Ducks 45 Dawgs 13

9:38 PM, Jul 13, 2008

10.5 is being nice to say the least. I don't want to rain on the Husky optimism during July parade but you are going to get smoked at Autzen. The whole "Dixon and Stewart are gone so we're going to win" mentality is a fallacy. We're going to break out more weapons, the secondary is going to have a field day with Locker, and the Dawgs are going to be lost under the lights at Autzen.
Ducks 45 Dawgs 13

Posted by *ucktards

10:30 PM, Jul 13, 2008

You guys gave up 34 pts to a FRESHMAN QB WHO DIDN'T CALL A SINGLE AUDIBLE and you think you're gonna hold that guy to 13 pts as a sophomore? He has a much better understanding of the offense, will be calling audibles and has more weapons surrounding him. You will get a healthy dose of Chris Polk, along with Deandre Goodwin, Chris Izbicki, Brandon Johnson, Willie Griffin, Paul Homer, etc. Oh yeah, he also greatly improved his accuracy, has gained 10 pounds of muscle and is still faster than most, if not all of your defense (who can't tackle him). Hold us to 13 pts, good luck! I like our chances!

Posted by jh

10:34 PM, Jul 13, 2008

phuck the ducks!

Love jh

Posted by Locker field day

11:10 AM, Jul 14, 2008

“The secondary is going to have a field day with Locker”??!!??? Are you kidding me??? There is no one on the UO campus that I would rather NOT be than a member of their secondary going into the game on the 30th. If for some reason Jake does not rip me apart with his arm, then he will be running free through the secondary. I can’t see that I would be real excited about either option. Jake Locker getting past the linebackers into the secondary would probably make the poor duck secondary soil themselves.

Delusional!

Posted by Formerly Guest

12:11 PM, Jul 14, 2008

Ducks 45,

Everyone says the UO secondary is awesome, and I have no reason to beleive otherwise.

Still, it seems Locker had a career game against them last year. Did they just not show up? What gives?

Posted by nobody special

12:48 PM, Jul 14, 2008

Last year was Oregon's first look at Locker. He was 85% of your offense (100+ Rushing and 250+ passing). I think he took everyone by surprise last year. Washington will play every down of this season with a spy on Locker. Other players will have to step up. If Washington fields a one-dimensional offense, they'll have the same sort of season they had last year - perhaps worse.

As far as his 'picking Oregon's secondary apart', he only completed about 38% of his passes that game. Dixon completed 63%. Both had a pic. I don't think Jake beat anyone with his arm, but he was very effective 'creating' opportunity with his feat. Don't misunderstand me, I think the kid is going to be a fantastic QB, but nobody thinks of him as having an arm that will stand out in Pac-10 play. We'll see what happens this year.

Posted by forFG

1:06 PM, Jul 14, 2008

FG - Locker had a good day, I guess....But, looking at the box score, I notice a few things:

12-31 - 257 yds - 1 pick. - 38% comp. 4 TD's in 12 completed passes??? Yards are good, not much else in this stat line. (more to come)

13 carries - 78 Yds, good for most any QB per game.

Now....the TD's
1. 83 yd td. that was blown coverage and a awlful throw, you just get beat on some of these. I bet Locker didn't have anything close to that all year. 1 play TD, kinda lucky.

2. 26 yd td pass, this was a good drive.

3. 1 play 43 rd td pass to Russo. Again, not a solid offensive possession on the whole, 1 long play.

4. 38 yd td pass . can't see the number of plays, but according to play clock, not many.

I know the reaction this will get, but this game is 3 passes from being total blow out (before the 4th quarter).

I don't rember what the "reason" was for the D blowing that many long plays, even with Joe Montana (that's for you JH) throwing the ball, this can not be relied on as your "offense". you won't see this years Duck secondard getting torched long this many times....

Let's hear it.....GO DUCKS in a 3rd quarter rout.

Posted by Formerly Guest

1:13 PM, Jul 14, 2008

For FG and Nobody Special,
Thanks.

I guess we will see. I agree, it is a quirky stat line. 38% completion, yet nearly 300 yards and 4 TD passes.

Not good ball control, didn't keep that great UO offense off the field. But seemed to keep the game competitive for quite some time.

Sounds like this would be an atypical performance for the UO secondary, in your opinion.

Posted by autzeninaugust

1:28 PM, Jul 14, 2008

agree, Locker will be a target this year, people are going to make him throw and prove he can. this will be the difference this year, can he make the defense honest.

Posted by Ducks!!!!

6:55 PM, Jul 14, 2008

Huskeis will get eaten alive by the Ducks!!!!! WASHINGTON WILL BOW DOWN TO OREGON FOR THE REST OF ALL TIME!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by ducktards

11:00 PM, Jul 14, 2008

You guys gave up 34 pts to a FRESHMAN QB WHO DIDN'T CALL A SINGLE AUDIBLE and you think you're gonna hold that guy to 13 pts as a sophomore? He has a much better understanding of the offense, will be calling audibles and has more weapons surrounding him. You will get a healthy dose of Chris Polk, along with Deandre Goodwin, Chris Izbicki, Brandon Johnson, Willie Griffin, Paul Homer, etc. Oh yeah, he also greatly improved his accuracy, has gained 10 pounds of muscle and is still faster than most, if not all of your defense (who can't tackle him). Hold us to 13 pts, good luck! I like our chances!

Oh yeah, we've had two 6 game win streaks and three 5 game win streaks against you *ucks, and have beaten you 21 more times than you've beaten us. You've got a long way to go. Delusional...

Posted by smartypants

7:23 AM, Jul 15, 2008

Locker's a talent and depending on how much his passing and reading D improves, UW could surprise people this yr (including my mallards). In fact there is no reason the dawgs couldn't come into Autzen and keep this uncomfortably close.

I'd bet my money on the Ducks upto a 13 pt spread. But the crucial thing for UW is how do they lose/win. A game showing in Autzen can build confidence and stabilize a team with fragile psyche. As an Oregon guy, I hope its actually close for 2 reasons: 1. I don't want a huge blowout to start a year that will have some brutal stretches on the road; keep the players humble and hungry. 2. Would like to see the Huskies become good again and make this rivalry a balanced one for years to come.

BTW: I think Willingham is an awesome human being and he was a perfect fit for Stanford. But I don't feel the groove up in Seattle.

Posted by Ducks!!!!!!

9:41 AM, Jul 15, 2008

You Huskie fans have been out of the loop for so long that you think Locker you make you pac-10 contenders alone by himself! Well I got news for you, HE WONT!!!!!!!!!! WASHINGTON SUCKS AT EVERY OTHER SPOT ON THE TEAM OTHER THAN QB!!!!!!! HUSKIES WILL BE LUCKY TO WIN 4 OR 5 GAMES THIS SEASON!!!!!!!

Posted by Ducks!!!!!!!

9:44 AM, Jul 15, 2008

ducktards-

What have you done latley? Mabey in the 21st centurey??!!!!

Washington Sucks!!!!!

Posted by Formerly Guest

1:49 PM, Jul 15, 2008

Ducks!!!!!!

"You Huskie fans have been out of the loop for so long that you think Locker you make you pac-10 contenders alone by himself! Well I got news for you, HE WONT!!!!!!!!!!"

-No argument with the 2nd half of your statement. Locker cannot do it alone. If no one else steps up, we are dead.

"{WASHINGTON SUCKS AT EVERY OTHER SPOT ON THE TEAM OTHER THAN QB!!!!!!!"

-Well, some of us disagree. We think we have some talent that is developing and can help Locker deliver. But only time will tell. Makes 8/30 more exciting, right?

HUSKIES WILL BE LUCKY TO WIN 4 OR 5 GAMES THIS SEASON!!!!!!!

-I dunno. This team is young, impressionable, and has underachieved, at least in conference. Like a number of Pac-10 teams, there is untapped potential here. They could win 8...or only win 4.

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