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Seattle Times business reporter Elizabeth Rhodes posts the answers to your real estate questions as they pop up during the week. Join this ongoing discussion, which also features reader reaction to real-estate articles appearing throughout The Times.

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November 13, 2007 4:02 PM

National outlook gloomy for 2008

Posted by Becky Bisbee

LAS VEGAS -- At the National Association of Realtors convention here, the big question on everyone's mind is: When will the real-estate market rebound?

Economist John Tuccillo is predicting the end of 2008 or beginning of 2009 for the nation as a whole.

However the Virginia-based consultant and former NAR chief economist stressed that "there are hundreds of thousands of real-estate markets, so it doesn't matter what the national picture is."

What really matters to buyers and sellers is what's occurring in their own area.

Here's what Tuccillo says they should watch for. It could be as simple as keeping an eye on neighborhood "For Sale" and "Sold" signs.

-- The number of homes on the market. A decrease means more buyers are buying.

-- How long homes stay on the market. Faster turnover is another sign of a market pickup.

- The ratio of sales price to asking price. Disappearing price cuts signal a turnaround.

When the market does rebound, Tuccillo says, it will bring "a tsunami of first-time buyers." They're Gen Y'ers born after 1976.

Larger in numbers than Baby Boomers, Gen Y's will generate tremendous home sales between 2010 and 2015, Tuccillo said.

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