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November 5, 2008 7:17 PM

Polling and the Washington state governor's race

Posted by Joni Balter

All pollsters who predict an election correctly are geniuses. Pollsters who call it wrong, are, well, not so swift.
Kudos to independent pollster Stuart Elway of the Elway Poll who sort of got it right this time in the supposedly ultra-tight Washington governor's race.
Elway's October poll said Gregoire was ahead of Republican challenger Dino Rossi by 12 points. Well, he got that wrong. But he told me, and I thought he was off his rocker at the time, that Gregoire would win by six or eight points.
At the moment, Elway is on the mark. It's a seven point race as I write this.
Elway also correctly predicted the 2006 Senate race between Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell and Republican challenger Mike McGavick. His poll predicted a 16-point race while other pollsters said the race was quite close. Cantwell won by 17 points.

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