If the current margin holds in the U.S. Senate race, Republican Mike McGavick will have had the worst showing by a major party Senate candidate since GOP Seattle city attorney Doug Jewett was trounced by the legendary Scoop Jackson in 1982.

It's an amazing statistic, given that the year began with Sen. Maria Cantwell tagged as the most vulnerable Democratic senator in the country. McGavick was the Republican's dream candidate, with business and political experience and a personal bank account fat enough that he could help finance his run.

The count now gives Cantwell 56 percent of the vote and McGavick 40 percent. Libertarian Bruce Guthrie has about 1 percent and Green Aaron Dixon and Independent Robin Adair each have less than that.

Here's how other Senate races finished:

2004: Patty Murray 55 percent, Rep. George Nethercutt 43 percent

2000: Maria Canwtell 49 percent, Sen. Slade Gorton, 49 percent

1998: Murray 58 percent, Rep. Linda Smith, 42 percent

1994: Gorton 56 percent, Ron Sims 44 percent

1992: Murray 54 percent, Rod Chandler 46 percent

1988: Gorton 51 percent, Mike Lowry 49 percent

1986: Brock Adams 51 percent, Gorton 49 percent

1982: Scoop Jackson 69 percent, Jewett 24 percent

Democratic Congressman Jim McDermott said that today's vote was "a tremendous statement by the American people that they want something other than 'stay the course.' And I think the President has to face that starting tomorrow morning."

McDermott said that even if the Senate remains in Republican hands, the Democratic wave will build over the next two years as House Democrats show voters their agenda.

"People may not see it right away," he said. McDermott wants House Democrats to pass their agenda, not just sit and negotiate forever with Senate Republicans. If Republicans just stop the Democratic initiatives, McDermott said, "They do it at their own peril."

"There is a real opportunity and a real necessity to put on the table our proposals. Things tightened up so much, the Senate should be looking over the shoulder at the American people."

Republicans have made much of Rep. Nancy Pelosi as a "San Francisco liberal." But McDermott thinks Pelosi will be a pragmatic speaker of House. "They talk about her as this San Francisco liberal, but I think of her as the mayor's daughter from Baltimore. She's been around politics since she was 5 years old. That's where she learned about politics."

As of now McDermott has about 78 percent of the vote. Republican Steve Beren has 17 percent and independent Linnea Noreen has about 4 percent.

Mike McGavick just conceded in his race against Sen. Maria Cantwell. But before he did, he told his supporters in Bellevue not to boo at what he was about to say.

"So a moment ago I participated in one of the great traditions in this democracy, and that is when you know you lost, you call the winner and congratulate them. So I called Maria Cantwell and congratulated her on her next term in the Senate."

The response was lukewarm, but with none of the booing McGavick worried about. That, he said, would have spoiled what he felt was his campaign-long commitment to civility. He said that some of his friends told him this wouldn't be a good year to do that, and he conceded they may have had a point.

But he repeated what he has said about the need to change the dynamics of American political debate.

"In this cold Republican year, that seed may have fallen on stony ground. But it must take root and we must find a way to end this bitterness in our land."

Former U.S. Sen. Slade Gorton was watching TV outside the big GOP soiree in Bellevue as national Republican losses kept tallying up.

He said the U.S. House was clearly lost, but he was holding out hope that Republicans could still hold a slim majority in the Senate. But he knew McGavick would not be part of that, which he said was "of particular regret to me" because he thought he'd be a great senator. And he doesn't think McGavick could have done anything different.

"I don't think he left many votes on the table," Gorton said.

Asked what was pushing the national wave, Gorton said, "You can put it in shorthand and say the conduct of the war has a lot to do with it." And he expressed some frustration that the Bush Administration had not done more to change the course in post-war Iraq.

"Like most other Republicans now, I would have gotten rid of the secretary of defense a long time ago. It was his strategy. He messed up.''

It is not scientific. It's just a snapshot of a few precincts. It's not a prediction. I just find these numbers interesting as we all wait for real numbers.

The volunteers who conducted exit polls in the 8th Congressional District found in an Issaquah polling place that 250 people voted for Darcy Burner and 144 for Dave Reichert.

For those of you who know the precincts, interviews were conducted in these precincts: 05-0543, 05-0544, 05-2806, 05-2807, 05-2929, 05-3138, 05-3206

There were 396 interviews done from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m.

For what it's worth ...

As you can see below, Mike McGavick thought the media were calling some Senate races around the country too soon.

None sooner, it turns out, than his own. The Associated Press reported at 8 p.m. that Sen. Maria Cantwell had been re-elected. The news was met with disbelief at the Republican party in Bellevue

The call at poll-closing for Cantwell was based on a number of factors, including voter turnout, previous voting patterns, and a statistical analysis of the vote from voter interviews conducted for The Associated Press by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.

I called McGavick spokesman Elliott Bundy for reaction. He said he'd have to get back to me.

Here's a look at the exit polls that AP is using.

You can see that according to the CBS site at least, Cantwell has not been officially projected as the winner.

I just spoke with Congressman Dave Reichert at the GOP party at the Bellevue Hyatt. He says he's confident he'll survive a tough challenge from Democrat Darcy Burner. But he's not sure what to think about what's happening nationally.

In part, that's because Reichert says he hasn't been paying attention in recent weeks. He doesn't watch the news on TV and tries not to read the newspapers, he said. His staff looks out for anything important he needs to know, he said, and he is sure to read all that.

But campaign stuff hasn't interested him.

"When I get home late at night I watch a Seinfeld rerun. I need a little chuckle. Or an old western."

I told Reichert that several bellweather races around the country were going Democratic.

"If the majority is lost we just have to work a little harder."

Reichert's campaign was worried earlier today about floods hurting turnout. But Reichert shrugged it off tonight.

"I can't control it. Cops are used to being in control."

Mike McGavick is here, too. He's not saying much more than he's excited and still hopeful. He has been watching the national news and says he thinks some Senate races are being called too soon.

We'll see soon what the networks say about his race against Sen. Maria Cantwell. McGavick said he doesn't read too much into what's happening elsewhere, because he said he ran a different sort of race. He says the other races were negative and nasty, while he says he kept to his pledge of civility.

Former Sen. Slade Gorton, McGavick's former boss and the man Cantwell beat six years ago, just showed up here, too.

At The Stranger's election party, the Spitfire in Belltown has drink specials. ''The Maria Cantwell'' is Absolut Citron, blue Curacao and lime juice. Shaken, served with a cherry.

Dan Savage just took a drink of one. I'll let you know if it makes him decline all interviews.

MORE: Robert Novak told subscribers to his insider newsletter that as goes Indiana, so goes the country. One of those key House races seems to be decided. Democratic challenger Brad Ellsworth is leading Rep. John Hostettler by a wide margin.

Republicans have complained to King County elections officials about "citizen exit pollsters" talking to voters in the 8th Congressional District.

State Republican Party Chairwoman Diane Tebelius says the pollsters are inside polling places and standing in doorways.

"This is a clear violation of the rules governing exit polling, and can lead to voter intimidation. We suspect these workers are from the Election Integrity organization which has strong ties to the Democrat Party, and have publicly said that they plan to target the 8th Congressional District."

There are volunteers interviewing voters today. Hannah McFarland, who organized the effort, just told me that the pollsters only went inside polling places to introduce themselves to the people in charge and to say they would like a report on the number of voters at the end of the day.

The volunteers are following guidelines published by Election Integrity. The group has raised concerns about voting in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. The group maintains that early exit polls two years ago showing John Kerry leading George Bush were correct, and that the actual vote count that made Bush the winner is likely the result of fraud.

Tebelius found that one of the principals in the group, Stephanie Singer, donated money to Democratic campaigns, including to that of Sen. Maria Cantwell. She criticized that as showing the group's "strong ties" to the Democratic Party and said the exit polling could lead to voter intimidation.

But McFarland said other than following the group's guidelines, and giving them copy of their results, the volunteers has no ties to Election Integrity.

"We haven't even talked or e-mailed with Election Integrity," she said.

So far today voters in the 8th Congressional District have been able to get to their polling places despite flooding in some areas.

And with most of those areas in the Republican areas of the district, the weather and access to polling places is a concern for the campaign of Congressman Dave Reichert. Spokeswoman Kimberly Cadena just told me:

"Everything is looking pretty good; people are showing up at their new locations. So far, no cause for concern."

But the campaign and Republican attorneys observing voting today are watching carefully. If at some point turnout looks to be "atypically low" in flooded areas the campaign would consider asking that hours for voting be extended beyond the 8 p.m. cut off.

Secretary of State Sam Reed told me that only a Superior Court judge can do that. He's had state attorneys researching the question the past few days and says he, local election officials or even the governor — who asked about it yesterday — lack the power to make the move even on an emergency basis.

"I don't blame Reichert, because the areas of the county with problem are the more Republican areas," Reed said.

So far reports to the secretary of state's office "are pretty positive," Reed said. King County elections spokeswoman Bobbie Egan said there had been only two calls from voters so far today who said they were stranded in their homes and unable to make it to a polling place.

Elections officials are working to try to get a provisional ballot to those voters. That could also include an e-mail or fax ballot. Egan said:

"Those would be presented to the canvassing board and they would determine whether or not to count those ballots."

Any widespread use of provisional ballots raises the specter of Washington's famously flawed 2004 gubernatorial election. Cadena said in a statement released this morning:

There are several layers of problems because of the weather. When voters who are able move to a different location, they have to vote using a provisional ballot, which caused all of the problems in 2004. Then those provisional ballots have to be verified through their original polling location.

In Snoqualmie, the polling place at the Church at the Ridge was without power this morning when the polls were due to open. City Administrator Bob Larson said crews brought a generator, emergency lights and power strips and the polling place was operating by 9 a.m.

Under a screaming headline that says BEWARE OF EXIT POLLS, the Republican National Committee is cautioning reporters about reading too much in to exit polls today.

The GOP is right that two years ago exit polls showed John Kerry winning. But while some Democrats believe that's a sign of fraud in the actual vote count, Republicans say it's the result of flawed methodology and the other things that work against Republicans.

Among the claims in the release from the RNC today are:

Election Experts Believe Exit Polls Give An Edge And Sway Towards Democrat Candidates.

National Exit Polls Will Skew In Favor Of Democrats This Year, Due To Large Numbers Of Uncontested Democrat Seats In The House Of Representatives.

Early Exit Polling Returns In 2004 Were Widely Inaccurate, Declaring Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) To Be The Next President Of The United States And Republicans Barely Holding A One Seat Majority In The U.S. Senate.

In The 2002 Midterm Elections, Exit Polling Produced Unusable Data.

In 2000, Exit Polling Malfunctioned And Incorrectly Projecting Vice President Al Gore As The Winner Of The Crucial Battleground State Of Florida.