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The BIAW's post-primary poll Posted by David Postman at 8:10 AM The Building Industry Association of Washington commissioned a poll immediately after last week's primary to see what worked and what didn't in their expensive, but unsuccessful, campaign to elect John Groen to the Supreme Court and to try to figure out what to do different in their effort to help Sen. Stephen Johnson beat Justice Susan Owens in November. Among the questions were favorable/unfavorable ratings for BIAW, the SEIU ... the union that was one of the top donors to Citizens to Uphold the Constitution which opposed BIAW candidates ... as well as for Groen, Chief Justice Gerry Alexander, Owens and Johnson. Respondents were asked who they voted for in the Groen/Alexander race and why they voted that way. They were asked if the vote was more for supporting Alexander or opposing Groen and were given a sliding scale of one to five to show how important different factors were in their vote. Those included whether they thought Alexander had been on the bench too long, Alexander's support for Justice Bobbe Bridge after her arrest for drunken driving, that John Groen was a "right-wing extremist," that Groen opposed stem cell research and abortion, that Groen was funded by big-money special interests, and whether Alexander won because he was more experienced or because of the BIAW's attack ads against him. McCabe said he learned some things from the poll. He doesn't think his ads were negative. But, he said, if you accept that they are as the Times and other papers said, the poll showed "negative ads are successful. They were successful in generating a lot of no votes for John Groen and yes votes for Gerry Alexander." "The other side's ads were really good," McCabe said. The most successful lines of attack, he said, was calling Groen a right-winger and saying that he opposed abortion and stem cell research. "The numbers really jumped considerably on those two issues." "When you say he is a right-wing extremist in a state where most people identify themselves as moderate or liberal, that really makes an impression on people." Looking ahead to the Johnson/Owens race, the BIAW asked, "If you knew nothing else about two candidates besides the fact that one was a man and one was a woman, for whom would you vote?" McCabe said the poll found a 13 percent advantage for the female candidate. "We've got a sisterhood in this state that is just interesting. ... It's not a surprise that we have two U.S. senators who are women, a governor who is a woman, four Supreme Court justices who are women. Is that different than in other states? I think it is." And that poses a challenge for Johnson and his backers at the BIAW. "Susan Owens' positives are really high primarily because she is a woman. People don't even know what she looks like or how she voted or where she's from." A man running against a woman needs to watch his image carefully. It is difficult for any anti-abortion candidate to win statewide here. And to try to neutralize the gender gap as much as possible a candidate needs to avoid appearing as, say, a "shifty brute," which is how Ralph Thomas described the portrayal of Groen in an opposition ad. Instead, McCabe said, Republican men running statewide need to appear "as a sensitive, caring guy, like Rob McKenna or Dino Rossi, and I think they both did a pretty good job." MORE: Steve Johnson issued a press release this morning with a letter he sent supporters "outlining his plan to run a clean, fair and truthful campaign in the remaining weeks of his campaign." Johnson had no specific criticisms of ads run so far, but said in the release, "This action was precipitated by a series of controversial ads aired on both sides of the Groen/Alexander race leading up to the recent primary election." Johnson said he wants Owens "as well as outside interest groups" to honor his three guideliens: "All facts and statements shall be grounded in truth and relevance. Personal attacks are out of bounds. My campaign will focus on my judicial philosophy, my qualifications and decisions of the Court. How could an expensive loss be good for business? Because it showed business was willing to strike against creeping "Spitzerism." Strassel calls New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer "Chief Persecutor of Wall Street." Mr. Groen lost last week, but barely. Across the country, incumbent judges--who are rarely challenged, much less seriously so--began shaking in their robes.
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