advertising
Link to jump to start of content The Seattle Times Company Jobs Autos Homes Rentals NWsource Classifieds seattletimes.com
The Seattle Times Politics
Traffic | Weather | Your account Movies | Restaurants | Today's events

E-mail David   /  About   /  From the archive

All blogs and discussions ››

September 26, 2006

The BIAW's post-primary poll

Posted by David Postman at 8:10 AM

The Building Industry Association of Washington commissioned a poll immediately after last week's primary to see what worked and what didn't in their expensive, but unsuccessful, campaign to elect John Groen to the Supreme Court and to try to figure out what to do different in their effort to help Sen. Stephen Johnson beat Justice Susan Owens in November.

Among the 400 or so people polled was reader Frank Shoichet, a Seattle attorney and no friend of the BIAW's. He's a donor to Owens and the trial attorneys' PAC. Shoichet took excellent notes as he was polled and sent me a list of 27 questions he was asked. BIAW executive vice president Tom McCabe — who I must say was impressed with the accuracy of Shoichet's list — confirmed it was his group that paid for the poll.

Among the questions were favorable/unfavorable ratings for BIAW, the SEIU ... the union that was one of the top donors to Citizens to Uphold the Constitution which opposed BIAW candidates ... as well as for Groen, Chief Justice Gerry Alexander, Owens and Johnson.

Respondents were asked who they voted for in the Groen/Alexander race and why they voted that way. They were asked if the vote was more for supporting Alexander or opposing Groen and were given a sliding scale of one to five to show how important different factors were in their vote. Those included whether they thought Alexander had been on the bench too long, Alexander's support for Justice Bobbe Bridge after her arrest for drunken driving, that John Groen was a "right-wing extremist," that Groen opposed stem cell research and abortion, that Groen was funded by big-money special interests, and whether Alexander won because he was more experienced or because of the BIAW's attack ads against him.

McCabe said he learned some things from the poll. He doesn't think his ads were negative. But, he said, if you accept that they are as the Times and other papers said, the poll showed "negative ads are successful. They were successful in generating a lot of no votes for John Groen and yes votes for Gerry Alexander."

"The other side's ads were really good," McCabe said. The most successful lines of attack, he said, was calling Groen a right-winger and saying that he opposed abortion and stem cell research. "The numbers really jumped considerably on those two issues."

"When you say he is a right-wing extremist in a state where most people identify themselves as moderate or liberal, that really makes an impression on people."

Looking ahead to the Johnson/Owens race, the BIAW asked, "If you knew nothing else about two candidates besides the fact that one was a man and one was a woman, for whom would you vote?"

McCabe said the poll found a 13 percent advantage for the female candidate.

"We've got a sisterhood in this state that is just interesting. ... It's not a surprise that we have two U.S. senators who are women, a governor who is a woman, four Supreme Court justices who are women. Is that different than in other states? I think it is."

And that poses a challenge for Johnson and his backers at the BIAW.

"Susan Owens' positives are really high primarily because she is a woman. People don't even know what she looks like or how she voted or where she's from."

A man running against a woman needs to watch his image carefully. It is difficult for any anti-abortion candidate to win statewide here. And to try to neutralize the gender gap as much as possible a candidate needs to avoid appearing as, say, a "shifty brute," which is how Ralph Thomas described the portrayal of Groen in an opposition ad.

Instead, McCabe said, Republican men running statewide need to appear "as a sensitive, caring guy, like Rob McKenna or Dino Rossi, and I think they both did a pretty good job."

MORE: Steve Johnson issued a press release this morning with a letter he sent supporters "outlining his plan to run a clean, fair and truthful campaign in the remaining weeks of his campaign." Johnson had no specific criticisms of ads run so far, but said in the release, "This action was precipitated by a series of controversial ads aired on both sides of the Groen/Alexander race leading up to the recent primary election."

Johnson said he wants Owens "as well as outside interest groups" to honor his three guideliens: "All facts and statements shall be grounded in truth and relevance. Personal attacks are out of bounds. My campaign will focus on my judicial philosophy, my qualifications and decisions of the Court.

Also, in the Wall Street Journal yesterday, a column by Kimberley A. Strassel says that the Groen/Alexander election was reason "for good cheer in the business community."

How could an expensive loss be good for business? Because it showed business was willing to strike against creeping "Spitzerism." Strassel calls New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer "Chief Persecutor of Wall Street."

Mr. Groen lost last week, but barely. Across the country, incumbent judges--who are rarely challenged, much less seriously so--began shaking in their robes.

Call it business's revenge, or better yet, business's new political strategy--one that may prove a rare bright point for conservatives in upcoming elections. Somewhere among the Spitzer campaigns, the endless trial-lawyer suits, and the adverse verdicts in state courts, the corporate world realized it needed to address root causes. Local chambers of commerce and tort-reform groups encouraged businesses to start putting some skin into state elections.


Share:    Digg     Newsvine

Marketplace

advertising

advertising