Initial returns seem to indicate that Darcy Burner is getting shelacked. Reichert is up 47 percent to 46 percent in King County. Pierce County results, which aren't posted yet, can be assumed to go heavy towards Dave.
Rossi and Gregoire are tied at 47 percent.

I think it really depends on the outcome tonight, not the history.

Early returns show Rossi fading in counties he won easily in the General. I think that tells you something.

It is not a predictor, but it tells people something about where to put their money.

It looks like Chris Gregoire is going to have a very good night, which could help dry up Rossi money - or at least make it harder to raise. She is leading him in counties he won in the 04 general. She has picked up in other counties.

It also looks like Ladenburg has a shot at beating McKenna. The GOP may need to prioritize where it puts its money this year: McKenna or Rossi?

Don, My Olympic loving household has taken my remote... You have a good online source? King5.com is slow in updating everything other than the Gov. race which keeps flopping back and forth... as expected.

Too early for such broad statements, Jan...

Jan, yes the specific outcome could matter. But I'm having a hard time finding an example from history where a primary night showing by a nominee played any major role in general election fundraising. Does anyone have any examples?

lupulin, statewide results, which is alittle slower than the county by county, is at vote.wa.gov

Lupulin,

The source I'm using for the Reichert vs. Burner numbers is, I'm afraid, not very trustworthy as it comes from the King County Elections website.

(waits for rimshot)

But it is the only one that counts.

http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/200808/Respage2.aspx

David--any thoughts on how in-state Democratic support for Obama versus in-state Republican dislike of McCain (as evidenced by their respective primary showings) will effect the gubernatorial race?

Pierce County results are just coming in for prognosticators.

http://www.co.pierce.wa.us/pc/abtus/ourorg/aud/elections/misc/currentresults.htm

In the Eighth, Reichert has 49.9 percent (6,830) Burner 38.9 percent (5,320)

jaimek, I'm not sure that will do as much as Gregoire hopes. Four years ago John Kerry outpolled her in King County, for example. Even whatever excitement there was about Kerry didn't trickle down to her race.

Obama is different in some key ways, though. There has been a much more aggressive voter registration effort. The trick, though, is to get those new voters, particularly young voters caught up in Obamamania, to keep checking "Democrat" as they go down ballot.

On the other side, is that Obama is running on a platform that talks repeatedly about how bad the economy is. That doesn't help Gregoire.

Any signs yet of whether there are any races that will advance two Democrats or two Republicans to the general election?

What about minor party candidates?

Look at Brock Adams' primary showing against Slade the first time Slade lost his Senate seat. I don't recall Adams getting more votes in the primary, but I do recall it giving him big Mo.

I know the media wants a real race badly. But from the looks of the county by county returns so far, it doesn't appear to be much of a contest for Governor.

This is the first Rossi Gregoire one-to-one since 2004. That counts for something = although I agree it is not predictive. I know a lot of people who write checks who think it does. And I'll bet the Republican Governors Association are counting on the primary results before investing big time.

Rossi could get a bounce in a poll or two later that could change minds, but a less than 04 general showing by him tonight will make it much harder for him to win in November than in 04.

Look at Spokane and Snohomish counties for clues. But look at erosion for Rossi and some gains for Gregoire in most other counties so far tonight.

The only place I see two candidates of the same party going to the general election ballot are legislative races. Other than that, there just weren't any serious intra-party challenges. In the 3rd Congressional District, Brian Baird had an anti-war activist running against him but didn't appear to be making the cut. (The secretary of state's site is down right now so I can't get the names and numbers on that race.)

107,000 votes in for the WA-03. Brian Baird has 51.75 percent. Democrat Cheryl Crist is 13.25 percent.

Michael Delavar, a Ron Paul Republican, has 18.97. Christine Webb, the GOP "establishment" choice and all-around babe, has 16.03.

Jan Before you pop open the Champaign, I must worn you that historically more Democrats vote in the primary then Republicans. If Gregoire does not win by a wide margin tonight, I would consider that a defeat for her.

"And I'll bet the Republican Governors Association are counting on the primary results before investing big time."

Hate to burst your bubble again, but this the ONLY race where R's have a shot at a pickup so the money is coming, although at the rate Rossi has been raising money he really has not needed any money.

In the 2004 Primary,
770,000 voters voted Democrat
522,000 voted Republican
As David pointed out, it was a contested Dem Race.
Hopefully the Gregoire supporters are so confident that the Primary will dictate the General that they stop campaigning!

I think the November Race will end up being less than 1 point again....as McCain gathers strength and the anti-Bush sentiment fades. Obama's lack of experience will become huge....and no, a South Side Chicago community organizer is not quite the experience most folks want.

I know it is early but looks like Steve Beren may actually pull this out and make the top two! Go Beren! Now I know there are at least 16% R's in the 9th....

I-26 is passing as well, not a good sign for Ron and his boys down at the county.

jan, we don't really disagree. It's not predictive, but there are clues in the results for sure. I do doubt, though, that the RGA will make any money decision based on tonight's results. They have polls that tell them all this stuff and they know what other races they have competing for resources. Rossi has done pretty well raising money. If it begins to dry up that will be real telling.

ge,
By your logic in purging the voter file, if done by partisans of one party or the other you can have vast fraud. A democratic election official could purge many voters from republican precincts and well could a republican official from democratic precincts. There are no reasons to deny a person his right to vote by making him jump through hoops. You should have to prove that is a fraudulent voter not just have a vague suspicion. The cavalier altitude that it’s too bad tough luck if you missed the notice that your registration has removed until you go vote go against all I believe this country is about. You conservatives claim that democrats are elitist, I find your beliesf are the elitist ones, “I’ve got mine” , any way to keep the others (the poor, the handicapped, the minorities) from sharing in the American Dream.

I made a mistake and got my sites mixed up when I went to post-- My apologies.
If you can remove my prior post Mr. Postman, I would be grateful

Congrats to State Auditor Brian Sonntag for getting the highest vote tally in every Statewide race.

My Blog: http://www.motleytools.com/blog

David, it is an error to look at the Gov primary four years ago since the D contest was a great draw. The results this time are much more telling since the race is essentially between The Gov. and the crook/ realestate guy who will be the only candidates come Nov.
The real question involves how the roughly 5% who voted for minor party candidates in this race will vote for in Nov or if they will vote at all since only one minor party candidate made the top two cut. (and this was only in a legislative race)

Anybody who places much stock in the primary - in August before Labor Day, no less - should take a trip down memory lane.

In 1992, the House Rs polled extremely well in the primary. So well in fact, that some scribes - one currently working for the Sec of State - predicted the House Rs would gain the majority.

What happened? When people went to bed on election night, the House Rs had 29 seats. Out of 98. Absentees put them at 33 in the end.

It's a long way to November.

Additionally, you're whistling past the graveyard, Jan. An incumbent that can't poll above 50 percent is in bad shape no matter how you look at the details.

Early returns show Rossi fading in counties he won easily in the General. I think that tells you something.

Yes. It tells me the primary and the general are two, completely different beasts.