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Postman on Politics

Chief political reporter David Postman explores state, regional and national politics.

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August 19, 2008 10:35 PM

Gregoire sees mandate of sorts in narrow lead

Posted by David Postman

The statewide vote count tonight shows Gov. Chris Gregoire with a lead of two percentage points over Republican challenger Dino Rossi. Gregoire just told TVW that Rossi should look for meaning in the returns:

I hope this is a message to him and his friends that negative campaigning isn’t going to work.

Gregoire won her office by 133 votes, so maybe those two points look like a mandate. I'll stick with my prediction that tonight's results won't predict much at all.

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Posted by jan

11:01 PM, Aug 19, 2008

They don't predict anything. But they mean a lot. That's why so much money was spent in the Governor race. Gregoire's numbers will only get better as all the ballots are counted. She beats expectations and has the Mo. Rossi must dig out.

Based on tonight's numbers, it look like the GOP is in danger of losing up to five more state house seats and up to two more state senate seats (Carrell and Benton).

Posted by David

11:15 PM, Aug 19, 2008

After all this, Governor, have you no shame? Your union and DC Democrats started on Rossi with relentless negative campaigning from the start, and she has joined right in. David, don't let her get away with this. She should get a job writing for Pravda - hey, that would be another government post!

Posted by jenny

11:15 PM, Aug 19, 2008

The press corps had the "close race" stories written in May. But -- when Rossi loses ground in all of the urban centers, and cannot hold his base in the rural areas -- it means something. When that happens after years of active campaigning and millions spent, it means even more. Asotin and Spokane, Pierce and Sno Co are the canaries in the cage. Rossi has to start talking substance. Voters want solutions, not wind socks.


Posted by jk

11:32 PM, Aug 19, 2008

Postman, Can you please do a negative ad count on her? she has to have 10 negative ads to Rossi's 1. Someone HAS to call her out on this, this is just a flat out lie. I understand the spin game but this women has no shame. I honestly think she is delusional......but people are buying it and media is allowing this happen. Sad, sad, sad......

jan: if your prediction of more house and senate seats are correct then who is Gregoire going to have left to blame for getting absolutely nothing done in this state?

Posted by Curious Caucus

11:33 PM, Aug 19, 2008

I wonder how many of the people who turned out to the caucus for Obama voted in the primary? IE does his support spread to other candidates or do people hope that he alone can change the system in DC?

Posted by Publicbulldog

11:34 PM, Aug 19, 2008

The Blue pages are carrying her.
The bribes are paying off.22 percent is pityful
certainly nothing to brag about.

Posted by Publicbulldog

11:37 PM, Aug 19, 2008

22 percent as in total voting percentage.weak weak weak.The voters are not at all inspired.

Posted by jan

11:46 PM, Aug 19, 2008

jk

I think most evidence suggests that Chris Gregoire has accomplished more in 3.5 years than any Governor accomplished in the 12 years before her.

One big reason was that she had a majority in the state legislature. Lowry lost his. Locke dealt mostly with gridlock.

It is good to have a government to blame. We have one now under Gregoire.

It appears tonight that the odds indicate she'll be Governor in 2009 with the potential for true super majorities in both houses of the legislature.

in 2010 we'll get to hold them accountable. It'll be clear.

If Obama wins, as expected, Washington state will enjoy a few years of real clout.

If McCain wins, no such luck. Because McCain can't win Washington state, know it, and doesn't much like us.

Posted by Mike

11:58 PM, Aug 19, 2008

Gregoire must be living on Fantasy Island!

She and her cohorts have been responsible for almost all of the negative campaigning.

What a liar!

Posted by Hinton

12:40 AM, Aug 20, 2008

I think that jan must be off her meds to actually believe that tripe. Queen Chrissy won't even admit that her main accomplishment was to have led this state into a multi-billion dollar deficit while she bent over for the tribes.

Anyone believing Benton will lose (he's up by 6%) certainly needs to increase their dosage. Your powers of conclusion show a level of self-delusion, "no place like home" thought processes that really have no place on the political playing field. In fact, you sound like the typical Darcy Burnout supporter.

Well, until tonite, I mean. Now, for some reason, they're kinda quiet. I guess the Burnout brand REALLY is "in decline."

Posted by JimD

12:41 AM, Aug 20, 2008

Gregoire could do even better than anyone can currently predict if new voters show-up in the kind of numbers they did for Obama in the primaries.
Pollsters are wrestling with how to forecast this unprecedented wild card since this phenomonon doesn't measure accurately with the conventional "likely voter" sampling by telephone land line.
But suffice it to say, we could see a huge down ticket landslide for Gregoire and anyone with a D by their name commensurate with the momentum Obama is mustering on election day.

Posted by Alex B. Berezow

12:50 AM, Aug 20, 2008

Anyone who is predicting a landslide for Gregoire (or heck, even an "easy" race) from tonight's results is certainly not a very astute observer of politics. I'm going to respond directly to JimD's comment:

1) Obama's presence on the ticket will make absolutely no difference in the governor's race. John Kerry won WA state by 7 points, but Gregoire "won" the gubernatorial race by 130 votes.

2) Voter turnout was very poor; everyone knew Rossi and Gregoire were going to win. There wasn't much motivation to vote.

3) Anyone who is bragging about a landslide in any hotly contested race (be it the presidential race or the WA gubernatorial race), may be in for a rude awakening on Nov. 5.

4) Anyone counting on "new" voters making a huge turnout will also be disappointed. Young voters don't vote. That's been proven over and over and over again. Even "Obama Girl" didn't vote for Obama because she didn't bother to go vote in her state's primary.

Posted by Conrad C. Elledge

2:46 AM, Aug 20, 2008

So my thinking is this, that it is very simple to determine a process for reasonable people to assess the success of Chris Gregoire's first term.

Let us all agree that the best we can do is what we ought to do and that as best we can tell Chris Gregoire, our governor has earned the option of another term.

We have a positive budget, we have created 224,000 new jobs, there is now health insurance for 84,000 children in our state. In a time of rampant home foreclosures, we rank 49th of all states in the union. All I had to do was elect Chris Gregoire governor of this state. I am happy to help see it done again.

I am insulted by and unwilling to tolerate the slander of these great accomplishments by a realtor with no other credential than his devotion to the republican debacle of george bush and dick cheney. Bring back the dead from Irag and then explain your incompetence you frail imposter.

Please let us move ahead with the many things we need at this crucial time.

Thank you, Conrad C. Elledge

Posted by Michael

3:40 AM, Aug 20, 2008

We (our family) simply decided to attact the negative ads by voting against the party who has systematically destroyed America and what it stood for.

We do not want those kinds of people running our country or our state and it's time to make this a party of the people, for the people. So we voted straight down the line for a party that stands for the people.

Posted by fuzzypugnutz

5:30 AM, Aug 20, 2008

We can always hope dino (flinstones's dog) can hold his muster for another 4 years & try to repair his record in the Legislator. Gov Chris has done more for Education & Green Jobs than dino could hope for in a lifetime. Our states budget decline will resolve itself when Obama is Pres & Chris has the tools in Olympia to knock the stuffing out of those who seek to undo her postive movement in our states forward thinking.

Posted by fuzzypugnutz

5:32 AM, Aug 20, 2008

We can always hope dino (flinstones's dog) can hold his muster for another 4 years & try to repair his record as a Legislator. Gov Chris has done more for Education & Green Jobs than dino could hope for in a lifetime. Our states budget decline will resolve itself when Obama is Pres & Chris has the tools in Olympia to knock the stuffing out of those who seek to undo her postive movement in our states forward thinking.

Posted by Tom

5:37 AM, Aug 20, 2008

Loks like the voters are again 'backing' Gregoire and the Democrats in the senate. If this occurs again, everyone shoukld stop whining about taxes, high gas prices, higher sales tax, etc because the "tax and spend" liberals are doing it every year. And people complain but do nothing about it. If you want change, vote them out. Or simply quit whining.

Posted by !

5:48 AM, Aug 20, 2008

Beware: I live in King county, I wasn't able to cast my vote. This time, I will...for Rossi
Negative campaign vs. Truth. Rossi points out the truth while Gregoire thinks he's pointing out her negative qualities. She's done squat in this state. I would have voted for her if she showed more and less talk. She had her chance.

Posted by Curious in Tacoma

6:24 AM, Aug 20, 2008

Does King County have enough bogus ballots in the closet to ensure a victory for Gregoire again?

Posted by Happy Commuter

6:39 AM, Aug 20, 2008

Governor Gregoire has given us less congestion on the freeways and lower gas prices. I'm sure happy that my commute time is so short from Tacoma to Seattle. The new freeway lanes really help a lot. Now that the pump price is the lowest in the country, I can afford to drive my SUV.

Posted by John Gray

7:04 AM, Aug 20, 2008

Gregoire is going to win again(thank goodness)look at the electoral map,all the population centers are for her.
As for Rossi,do we really want this guy to our Gov.?I mean really what's he going to do about our transportation mess?He promises to cut taxes and build more roads,where is the money going to come from?Everybody who has had a seroius look at his financing ideas for transportation says they are a figment of his imagination.
Dump Dino the Dinosaur and keep Gregoire,we can't afford somebody who lives in Fantasyland to our Gov.

Posted by jan

7:29 AM, Aug 20, 2008

Hey Hinton.

That Benton race looks about the same as the Gregoire-Rossi race. So if you conclude that Benton can't lose, you must be doing the same for Gregoire.

I was surprised by Benton's numbers. They'll make him a big target. But it hardly matters - the state Senate GOP does not appear likely to make any gains based on yesterday's counts and could easily suffer loses.

You got something against gals?


Posted by Pot, meet Kettle

7:39 AM, Aug 20, 2008

Pot, meet Kettle!!
BTW Governor, is the new 520 bridge EVER going to get built? Yeah, I know we need a few more multi-million dollar studies to make sure the design is agreeable with everyone on the planet. How about doing something instead of riding the political fence? Voted for her last time...not this time.

Posted by dinosux

7:43 AM, Aug 20, 2008

Dino is a waterheaded, overtanned crap eater. I wouldn't trust him to watch Bush's kids. I'm not a big demo fan but cmon! Dino is a MORON! (or a moran if your a Dino hick)

Posted by Near Alki

8:02 AM, Aug 20, 2008

So if you add these votes to the 2004 election votes then Ms. Gregoire just might have had enough to win that election.

Posted by Jake

8:02 AM, Aug 20, 2008

I see it as a mandate for gregorie to pack her bags. gregoire, reid, peloski, obama all losers. thank a democrat for the high gasoline prices in NOV VOTE NO NO NO NO

Posted by Centrist

8:21 AM, Aug 20, 2008

Rossi needs to think outside the box to beat Gregoire.

Stop toeing the same old republican line, and come up with some truly moderate ideas.

WA voters don't want "george bush republican" ideas.

Posted by mike

9:02 AM, Aug 20, 2008

go Dino, Gregoire is a fiscal moron

Posted by Bill Drake

9:43 AM, Aug 20, 2008

She has no idea where she has been or where she is going
however I can answer the last one OUT THE Door.

Posted by DINOSUX

9:45 AM, Aug 20, 2008

No Mike, it's "Morans" when it comes from you:
http://ninesisters.wordpress.com/2008/03/26/7-reasons-why-we-are-totally-screwed/.

The republicans have put this country 3 trillion dollars in debt (the started with a surplus) and Bush will leave office with 2 wars still going on. Gee, I wonder why gas prices are high and Exxon is rich? Maybe because the country is led by an oilman? Dino and the rest are ruining this country

Posted by Wiz

9:57 AM, Aug 20, 2008

Conrad C Elledge said “We have a positive budget, we have created 224,000 new jobs, there is now health insurance for 84,000 children in our state. In a time of rampant home foreclosures, we rank 49th of all states in the union.” Hmm…sounds like someone has been watching a few too many Gregoire ads.

Does anyone really know where this 224,000 number came from? It isn’t really put in context. I suppose it just sounds good to say. Is it 224,000 jobs created since Christine took office? If so, how many jobs have left the state? Quoting pure gross totals sure sounds better than the net numbers.

According to workforceexplore.com’s July 2008 Washington State Employment Situation Report “Year-over-year employment was up 1.0 percent (+29,500) in July.”

http://www.workforceexplorer.com/article.asp?ARTICLEID=9126&PAGEID=148&SUBID=

29.5 k sure doesn’t sound as good as 224k.

Conrad step away from your TV and actually think about these things for a change.

Posted by Roger

10:08 AM, Aug 20, 2008

Hahahaaha a Mandate?? Yeah...just like the mandate in their heads that they use to justify another tax increase. Her cronies may have stolen the last election, but I think she better look at the returns and read what it means for her...Moving time is coming!!!

Posted by JJ

10:24 AM, Aug 20, 2008

I love the fact that last week Gregoire was saying that the primary results won't really mean anything and now she is calling them a mandate.

Kind of like when she says that she inheritied a budget deficit from Rossi. I don't remember him being governer before her. Last time I looked it has all been democrates since the 80s.

I don't think she has been an awful governor, but I can stand the fact that she takes credit for things she had nothing to do with and never takes responsibility for anything that doesn't go right.

Posted by P

11:05 AM, Aug 20, 2008

Gee, Rossi got about 34% in the last primary count in 2004, and now is only two points behind her majesty. Things couldn't be looking any better.

I believe most of you losercrats are delusional. Gregoire should be running away with the election, what with her union and tribal backers spending millions on her behalf. This is supposed to be a Democrat year, yet a sitting governor is in the race of her life. I love seeing Dino do so well this time around, I wasn't expecting him to do this well!

Posted by P

11:35 AM, Aug 20, 2008

dinosux:

I guess you're a racist fool and that is why you're so nutty. Dino is half Italian and half native american. So, I suppose you're simply a racist fool who loves Her Royal Majesty.

Posted by Roberta

11:35 AM, Aug 20, 2008

I’m very disappointed in Chris interviews when asked pointed questions she will not answer the questions. We have a loser trying her best to be portrayed as a winner.

Posted by Bothsides

11:52 AM, Aug 20, 2008

3:40 AM, Aug 20, 2008

We (our family) simply decided to attact the negative ads by voting against the party who has systematically destroyed America and what it stood for.

We do not want those kinds of people running our country or our state and it's time to make this a party of the people, for the people. So we voted straight down the line for a party that stands for the people.

So Michael, I assume that would be the Republican party correct, cuz the Dems are running the attack ads and everything else matches up.

Mandate, yeah, right, 49% of the vote and it's a mandate LMAO.

Posted by Michele

12:02 PM, Aug 20, 2008

When you factor out all the illegal votes in democrat-heavy King county, and factor out all the 3500 votes that had absolutely no voter to go with them, it's very likely Gregoire in fact did NOTwin.

Posted by Wiz

12:48 PM, Aug 20, 2008

Dinosux, I read your post and thought it didn’t deserve a response. Then I became concerned that someone else may read it and actually believe this utter nonsense you are spewing.

Your reasoning for high gas prices…the county is led by an oilman? Exxon is rich? Nice thoughts, but lets take a walk over to reality street.
Oil prices are higher as a result of a weak dollar, increased demand and increasing instability the areas of high oil producing countries.
Dino Rossi has nothing to do with high gas prices. I am not sure how you draw the correlation there.
Taxes are part of the price you pay at the pump. Perhaps you should be upset with Christine for signing off on the latest increases.

Posted by Particle Man

1:01 PM, Aug 20, 2008

When all the votes are counted, the results will not be narrow at all and the Gov is winning an many places where she lost last time. That new car shine Rossi sold four years ago has faded and this time voters are seeing and older and faded Rossi with little to offer but his effort to sell voters change coupled with fear. Clearly this is no match for Gov Chris's message of accomplishment, continued change and hope.

If anyone doubts the fading of the Rossi brand, they should look at the 5th LD house race between incumbent (R) Glenn Anderson and first time candidate (D) David Spring who are in a 50%/50% dead heat despite the fact that David has raised and spent nearly nothing. The 5th has not elected a democrat since Rossi lost there in 1992.

Posted by JimD

2:03 PM, Aug 20, 2008

Alex Berezow:
" 4) Anyone counting on "new" voters making a huge turnout will also be disappointed. Young voters don't vote. That's been proven over and over and over again. Even "Obama Girl" didn't vote for Obama because she didn't bother to go vote in her state's primary. "

If there ever was an election in my lifetime that's bound to shatter the conventional wisdom that young folks won't show up at the polls, this is it,
The stars are aligned like never before, with a new generation that's known nothing but good times under Clinton, the nightmare under Bush, and a clear opportunity to choose one "side" or the other.
They've got a perfect candidate -- race neutral (to them), highly educated and articulate, and young enough to tap into their identity as "globals" (John Zogby) with nuance and sophistication that soars above the heads of old farts like us, but hits the mark with a younger generation that's hearing one of their own.
Their contempt for Bush and his ilk is off the charts, and the best Mccain can do is to portray himself as the other side of the same republican coin.
The new techno age has given then sophistication and worldly perspective previous generation simply didn't have, and they've have lived through the harsh reality of 911, watched a disastrous foreign policy bankrupt THEIR country, and have strong feelings about their place in the world.

I could go on and on...but suffice it to say, we simply haven't seen a generation of young voters this motivated to get off their butts and participate.
They proved that in the democratic primaries, and even discounting for the cooling passion of those heady days, will no-doubt prove it again in the general.


Obama Girl is an opportunistic entertainer.
Nothing wrong with that, but she's hardly the typical 18-24 year old participating in their first national election.

Posted by Mike in Seattle

2:16 PM, Aug 20, 2008

Governor Chrissy swept the Native American vote. What a surprise. You scratch my back and I'll scratch yours. Couple that group with all the unions and WEA and you are right back in the governor's mansion. Another four years of big government, higher taxes and out of control spending. You go girl.

Posted by jk

2:35 PM, Aug 20, 2008

Mike: Dont forget about our horrible transportation situation and the endless studies that waste millions if not billions of dollars. These studies usually end up telling us "well, looks like something needs to be done here" at which time this cyle will start: She will "name a blue ribbon commission" that will propose a solution. This solution will piss off either Greg Nickles, Ron Sims or Frank Chopp, all of whom are unafraid to take her on because they know she will fold like a lawn chair, the governor will then get that deer in headlights look at which time she panics and does nothing. Before you know it, its 4 years later, the projects will costs billions more and the cycle starts over.

Posted by scott

3:24 PM, Aug 20, 2008

I think a few people on this blog need to go back to civics class to learn the difference between the federal and state governments, and what they are responsible for in your lives. It's incredible how some people claim everything positive in Washington is due to Gregoire, but anything bad in our lives is due to Bush. Also calling Dino a "Bush Republican" should be a compliment. As much as Bush has screwed up as President, he was an unquestionably great Governor, do the research. Instead of just watching commercials for your political education, try researching the records of the candidates to see where they actually stand.

And on another note, I am 26 and will be voting in my 3rd election, and definitely not for Obama. He may be young, but he definitely doesn't "speak" to me. JimD did get one thing right, I am a young voter, motivated by Obama..... to make sure we have someone with more than "hope" and "change" to rule our great nation.

Posted by Chuck

3:30 PM, Aug 20, 2008

Call me blind and deaf but I didn't see any negative campaigning coming out of Dino Rossi's camp. Princess Gregroire did enough for her and Obama combined and it would see she used Obama's ad agency too. Aside from the fact she and the democrats are spending this state into the poor house she has the gall to suggest to Dino the negative ads should stop. Give me a break.

Recent entries

Aug 19, 08 - 10:35 PM
Gregoire sees mandate of sorts in narrow lead

Aug 19, 08 - 09:17 PM
Guess what? Gov's race looks close

Aug 19, 08 - 08:39 PM
Court incumbents look strong in early returns

Aug 19, 08 - 08:04 PM
Primary night: No forecast for November

Aug 19, 08 - 09:03 AM
Join me for a primary night chat

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