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Brier Dudley offers a critical look at technology and business issues affecting the Northwest.

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February 19, 2008 2:32 PM

Xbox on HD-DVD demise: Downloadable's the future, anyway

Posted by Brier Dudley

Apparently Microsoft isn't shedding too many tears over its lost investment in the HD-DVD format, which Toshiba put out of its misery today.

Microsoft's also unlikely to add Blu-ray to its Xbox console, judging from a chat I just had with Aaron Greenberg, group product manager for Xbox 360 and Xbox Live:

"We really feel like ... this generation is about digitally distributing this type of content - we've seen that with music, we've seen it with games and now we're seeing it with entertaiment content,'' he said.

That doesn't necessarily mean Microsoft's going to announce a hookup between Xbox Live and Netflix, as MSNBC speculated today. Greenberg said they were "surprised" by some of the info in that piece.

Greenberg did go on to say how pleased Microsoft is with the current lineup of high-definition, downloadable programming XBL already offers, through partnerships made directly with content owners.

"For on-demand, high def entertainment, we have the largest library in the industry,'' he said, noting that the service offers nearly 4,000 hours of content and more than 300 movies.

Maybe they're still negotiating with Netflix.

Sony's PlayStation 3 will surely get a bump from the news that it's differentiating feature, a Blu-ray drive, won't be made obsolete by a format war. But Xbox won't suffer from HD-DVD's demise, according to Greenberg.

"The fact is that we don't really think that this is going to have any material impact on our platform. As we know games are what sells consoles. That continues to be a leadership point for us."

Will Microsoft lose favor among game developers, who might gravitate toward the higher capacity of the Blu-ray discs used in the PS3?

"We haven't heard from any of our developers that that's an issue. There's still quite a bit of space there,'' he said, noting that the standard DVD format handled big, recent games like "Halo 3" and "Gears of War."

I'll bet Microsoft will further cut the price of the external HD-DVD drives for the Xbox, which have fallen from $200 to $130 over the last year.

Greenberg didn't have any word on prices, but said there aren't many of the gadgets left anyway.

"My understanding is that there's not much in the channel."

Media Center blogger Chris Lanier had more thoughts on why Blu-ray won't happen on the Xbox, namely that Microsoft won't be adding the Java interactivity layer that Blu-ray support involves.

Still, I wonder if Microsoft will be working the DVD standards body to make Blu-ray more palatable. Toshiba's announcement comes a week before that group, the DVD Forum, holds a major meeting in Tokyo.

I'm not up on the particular standards, but I wonder if Microsoft is already lobbying for changes to the Blu-ray standard. Could it argue that since Blu-ray's now the default format, its standards should be expanded to include additional capabilities - such as Microsoft's interactivity layer?

Or maybe we've all had enough format warring.

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Posted by Terrance

12:47 PM, Feb 21, 2008

Digital distribution gets a lot of positive speaking points, but in the end it's all in the numbers. For example, last year Apple celebrated their 100 millionth iPod sold. At the same time, it was widely believed that iTunes had sold two and a half billion songs...which works out to an average of 25 songs sold per unit sold. Back in the late 80's, if the music industry sold an average of two albums per $300 compact disc player sold, the CD would likely have been completely abandoned as a total failure.

Many forget about the "paperless office" push back in the mid-90's, and the fears many had that print publications would be killed off by the Information Superhighway. Instead of replacements, we only had additional avenues of content and distribution.

The point is that digital distribution is simply another avenue for content. It will appeal to some, avoided by others. Many people want that content in their hands, from the anticipation of getting it and the shopping experience, to the different devices in which to easily utilize the content.

On the subject of a Blu-ray add-on for the Xbox, I believe the reason MS isn't jumping in right away is because of price, and that price won't be coming down for at least another year now. We starting seeing low-end Blu-ray players finally break the $400 price barrier, easily more than twice the cost of low-end HD-DVD players. And Sony isn't going to be doing MS any cost favors to add Blu-ray to a competing game system, at least not until the PS3 has more content...because content usually decides the winner of a game system war, and the Xbox is still way ahead in that department.

This does not preclude that MS will not try to "make nice" with Sony. There are other areas in which they partner with each other, such as the new Walkman phones running Windows, and it's quite possible something can be worked out with Blu-ray. I just don't think it will happen during the next year or so.

Posted by Brier

1:03 PM, Feb 21, 2008

Great points Terrance, thank you for sharing. How this will affect relations between the companies is a great subject; maybe the phone deal was a precursor to a thaw, as you suggest.

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Gadgets and games | Fun stuff I've written about lately includes Apple's iPhone, Hewlett-Packard's HDX laptop and Microsoft's Halo3. Also on the radar are new digital video boxes such as the Tivo HD and the Vudu.