Advertising

The Seattle Times Company

NWjobs | NWautos | NWhomes | NWsource | Free Classifieds | seattletimes.com

Business / Technology


Our network sites seattletimes.com | Advanced

Brier Dudley's Blog

Brier Dudley offers a critical look at technology and business issues affecting the Northwest.

E-mail Brier| 206.515.5687 | Follow Brier on Twitter| Microsoft Pri0 blog| RSS feeds Subscribe | Blog Home

January 4, 2008 2:52 PM

Greg Linden spotlighted for spooky Crash 2.0 post

Posted by Brier Dudley

Some commenters are calling it sour grapes, but Greg Linden's prediction of a rough year for Web companies touched a nerve ...

Linden, a University of Washington alum and Amazon.com vet, started Findory, an online news site that folded last fall after a three-year run.

But his post today is more thoughtful than bitter. I wonder how much it captures concerns that other entrepreneurs share, but aren't voicing while they're still giving it their best shot.

A few excerpts:

We will see a dot-com crash in 2008. It will be more prolonged and deeper than the crash of 2000.

The crash will be driven by a recession and prolonged slow growth in the US. Global investment capital will flee to quality, ending the speculative dumping of cash on Web 2.0 startups.

Venture capital firms will seek to limit their losses by forcing many of their portfolio companies to liquidate or seek a buyout. Buyout prospects will be poor, however, as the cash rich companies find themselves in a buyers market and let those seeking a savior come face-to-face with the spectre of bankruptcy before finally buying up the assets on the cheap.

Not just startups will be affected, he says:

The big players will not be immune from this contagion. Google, in particular, will find its one-trick pony lame, with the advertising market suddenly stagnant or contracting and substantial new competition. The desperate competition with dwindling opportunity will drive profits in online advertising to near zero. Google and Yahoo will find their available cash dropping and will do substantial layoffs.

Linden goes on to speculate that companies will then do more obnoxious and intrusive ads, making the Web less pleasant for a while.

If Linden's right, then welcome to the party. Newspapers are suffering from a similar contagion and haven't yet found a cure.

Digg Digg | Newsvine Newsvine

Comments
No comments have been posted to this article.

Advertising

Marketplace

Concept car: Toyota takes another look at FT-1 new
(Toyota) Toyota FT-1 Toyota updated the interior styling and exterior color for this second interpretation of the FT-1 concept. It debuted last week ...
Post a comment

Most Popular Cars

Advertising

Advertising

Categories
Calendar

May

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
          1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31            
Browse the archives

May 2009

April 2009

March 2009

February 2009

January 2009

December 2008

Features

Video

Demo of the Week: TeachStreet.com

Share your thoughts!

Gadgets and games | Fun stuff I've written about lately includes Apple's iPhone, Hewlett-Packard's HDX laptop and Microsoft's Halo3. Also on the radar are new digital video boxes such as the Tivo HD and the Vudu.