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Between the Lines
September 23, 2004
| Iraq: Glass half full, glass half empty. |
President Bush's story is that the glass is half full and he stuck to it at a press conference with Iraq's U.S.-installed prime minister, Ayad Alawi, though he warned that difficult days lie ahead.
We're making steady progress in implementing our five-step plan toward the goal we all want: completing the mission so that Iraq is stable and self-governing and American troops can come home with the honor they have earned.
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The fifth and most important step in our plan is to help Iraq conduct free, national elections no later than next January. An Iraqi electoral commission is now up and running and has already hired personnel and is making key decisions about election procedures. …
At every stage in this process of establishing self-government, the Iraqi people and leaders have met the schedules they set and have overcome their challenges with confidence. And under this good man's leadership they will continue to do so.
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The war for Iraq's freedom is a fight against some of the most ruthless and brutal men on Earth. In such a struggle there will be good days and there will be difficult days. But every day our resolve must remain firm.
Prime Minister, today I want to leave you and the nation you serve with a clear message: You have not faltered in a time of challenge and neither will America.
Allawi, unsurprisingly, agreed with his host on the importance of the U.S. sticking it out in Iraq:
In 15 out of 18 Iraqi provinces, the security situation is good for elections to be held tomorrow. Here Iraqis are getting on with their daily lives, hungry for the new political and economic freedoms they are enjoying. Although this is not what you see in your media, it is a fact.
The Iraqi elections may not be perfect. They may not be the best elections that Iraq will ever hold. They will undoubtedly be an excuse for violence from those who despair and despite liberty, as were the first elections in Sierra Leone, South Africa and Indonesia. But they will take place and they will be free and fair.
Finally, Mr. President, a word about international resolve. Iraq cannot accomplish this alone. The international forces of tyranny and oppression are lined up against us. Iraq is now the main battleground between the forces of hope and the forces of fear.
This is a struggle which will shape the future of our world.
Here's a link to the transcript.
Despite all the blood and treasure we've spilled in Iraq, however, the situation remains dire in some significant respects. Middle East expert Juan Cole asks this question:
If America were Iraq, what would it be like?
The population of the US is over 11 times that of Iraq, so a lot of statistics would have to be multiplied by that number.
Thus, violence killed 300 Iraqis last week, the equivalent proportionately of 3,300 Americans. What if 3,300 Americans had died in car bombings, grenade and rocket attacks, machine gun spray, and aerial bombardment in the last week? That is a number greater than the deaths on September 11, and if America were Iraq, it would be an ongoing, weekly or monthly toll. …
What if the grounds of the White House and the government buildings near the Mall were constantly taking mortar fire? What if almost nobody in the State Department at Foggy Bottom, the White House, or the Pentagon dared venture out of their buildings, and considered it dangerous to go over to Crystal City or Alexandria?
What if all the reporters for all the major television and print media were trapped in five-star hotels in Washington, DC and New York, unable to move more than a few blocks safely, and dependent on stringers to know what was happening in Oklahoma City and St. Louis? What if the only time they ventured into the Midwest was if they could be embedded in Army or National Guard units?
There are estimated to be some 25,000 guerrillas in Iraq engaged in concerted acts of violence. What if there were private armies totalling 275,000 men, armed with machine guns, assault rifles (legal again!), rocket-propelled grenades, and mortar launchers, hiding out in dangerous urban areas of cities all over the country? What if they completely controlled Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, Denver and Omaha, such that local police and Federal troops could not go into those cities?
Go read the whole thing. Exercises in statistical relativism often leave something to be desired, but Cole does a good job of illustrating just how chaotic and insecure major parts of Iraq, including Baghdad, remain.
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| Posted by tbrown at 01:40 PM |
| Afghanistan: Glass half empty, glass half full |
The New York Times (free site registration may be required) has a pair of op-ed pieces today that highlight the differing views of what's happening in our other war, the one we seem to have almost forgotten.
J. Alexander Their, a fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, and a legal adviser to Afghanistan's constitutional and judicial reform commissions, writes:
President Bush describes Afghanistan, the first front on the war on terrorism, as a success. In comparison to Iraq, perhaps it is. But if you look at Afghanistan on its own merits, the lack of progress is disheartening. In 2002, President Bush promised a "Marshall Plan" for the country, with the goal of turning Afghanistan into a stable, democratic state. On Tuesday, before the United Nations General Assembly, the president said that "the Afghan people are on the path to democracy and freedom." Yet in nearly three years we have failed to create security, stability, prosperity or the rule of law in Afghanistan.
These failings are not just a reflection of the great difficulties of nation-building in places like Afghanistan, they are also the direct result of the Bush administration's policy decisions. Our efforts in Afghanistan are underfinanced and undermanned, and our attention is waning.
On the same page, Peter Bergen, a fellow at the New America Foundation and an adjunct professor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, writes:
This summer I visited Kandahar, the former Taliban stronghold in southern Afghanistan, for the first time since the winter of 1999. Five years ago, the Taliban and its Al Qaeda allies were at the height of their power. They had turned Afghanistan into a terrorist state, with more than a dozen training camps churning out thousands of jihadist graduates every year.
The scene was very different this time around. The Kandahar airport, where I had once seen Taliban soldiers showing off their antiaircraft missiles, is now a vast American base with thousands of soldiers, as well as a 24-hour coffee shop, a North Face clothing store, a day spa and a PX the size of a Wal-Mart. Next door, what was once a base for Osama bin Laden is now an American shooting range. In downtown Kandahar, the gaudy compound of the Taliban leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, now houses United States Special Forces units.
As I toured other parts of the country, the image that I was prepared for - that of a nation wracked by competing warlords and in danger of degenerating into a Colombia-style narcostate - never materialized. …
While two out of three Afghans cited security as their most pressing concern in a poll taken this summer by the International Republican Institute, four out of five respondents also said things are better than they were two years ago. Despite dire predictions from many Westerners, the presidential election, scheduled for Oct. 9, now looks promising. Ten million Afghans have registered to vote, far more than were anticipated, and almost half of those who have signed up are women. Indeed, one of the 18 candidates for president is a woman. Even in Kandahar, more then 60 percent of the population has registered to vote, while 45 percent have registered in Uruzgan Province, the birthplace of Mullah Omar. With these kinds of numbers registering, it seems possible that turnout will be higher than the one-third of eligible voters who have participated in recent American presidential elections.
What happens in the Afghanistan elections will be closely watched (or at least should be) and may give us a bit more clarity into conditions there.
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| Posted by tbrown at 01:36 PM |
| Finally, from a parallel universe |
At his press conference today, President Bush at one point said this about that staple poll question that asks whether the nation is on the right track or the wrong track:
"… I saw a poll that said the right track/wrong track in Iraq was better than here in America. It was pretty darn strong. I mean, the people see a better future."
I guess I feel better now. |
| Posted by tbrown at 01:31 PM |
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