The senator from Massachusetts – whose candidacy was widely regarded as on life support as the new year began -- was the only Democrat who got what he needed in New Hampshire. His big win (39 percent of the vote) installs him as the front runner – at least until this time next week.
For Howard Dean, New Hampshire was a second disappointment in two weeks. His 26 percent of the vote was hardly insignificant, but he needed to finish much closer to Kerry to avoid the onus of being counted out in the pundit “expectations” game. Nonetheless, he’s not out of it – at least until this time next week.
It’s going to take a couple of real strong showings real soon to revive Wesley Clark’s campaign. Unless it happens by this time next week – which is still possible, but seeming less likely all the time -- he’s finished.
John Edwards’ fourth-place finish, with just 12 percent of the vote, is more ambiguous than it might seem. It obviously provided no real follow through from his surprising second-place finish in Iowa last week. On the other hand, Edwards was never expected to win in New Hampshire and he still finished strong enough to keep his name in the papers and on the tube – at least until this time next week.
By this time next week, we’ll have the results of primaries in seven more states. There will, no doubt, be considerable shifting of support as voters digest the outcomes in Iowa and New Hampshire. Meanwhile, based on pre-New Hampshire polls (view the numbers at Real Clear Politics), here’s how candidates were doing in the states that vote in either primaries or caucuses next Tuesday:
• South Carolina: Edwards leading, but not dominating, with Kerry, Dean and Clark closely bunched behind.
• Missouri: In a new poll out today, the Kansas City Star (free site registration required) has Kerry with 25 percent and everyone else in single digits, led by Edwards.
• Delaware: Dean leading, Clark second.
• Oklahoma: Clark leading, Edwards ahead of Kerry for second.
• Arizona: Kerry leading, Clark second.
• New Mexico (caucus): Dean leading, Clark second.
• North Dakota (caucus): No polls
We should see later this week, when fresher polls are in hand, how these races are shaping up in light of New Hampshire.
Also, Washington and Michigan hold caucuses on Saturday, Feb. 7.
A recent Survey USA poll gives no indication who likely Washington caucus participants may support, but has Kerry as the only Democrat who runs even with Bush in a prospective head-to-head matchup. As elsewhere, independent voters are the key to this result. With other Democratic candidates, they break 5-4 for Bush; with Kerry on the imaginary ticket, they go slightly his way.
In Michigan, a poll of likely caucus participants gives Kerry the lead, with Edwards a distant second.
The goal for the four candidates who can be said to still be in this thing will be to stay alive through next month, in hopes of putting together enough momentum to do well on March 2, when California, New York and Ohio vote, with scads of convention delegates at stake.
OK. Since Kerry is the front-runner for now, it seems fair to ask whether he has the right stuff to take the nomination and run a credible general-election campaign against President Bush.
Here are two assessments:
Al Giordano, who has been both a newsie and a community organizer, says yes in this post at The Blogging of the President, where he argues that the more pressure Kerry is under the better he does. Giordano was right about that and has been predicting a Kerry surge for a long time at his own blog, BigLeftOutside.
At Slate, William Saletan has a much bleaker view of Kerry’s viability.
“I've asked myself how Kerry is persuading previously skeptical voters to change their minds about him. The answer is, he isn't. Other people are doing the persuasion. Other people are doing the testimonial ads, as first lady Christie Vilsack did for Kerry in Iowa. Other people are firing up his crowds. Other people are telling his story. Other people are touting his virtues at rallies because he doesn't reliably display those virtues himself. The man who stood up to serve his country as a soldier is being propped up as a candidate.”
A Kerry rally, Saletan says, is “like going to a concert and sitting through a bunch of speeches in which the musician's friends attest, ‘This guy can sing.’ "
Ouch.
Well, we’re nowhere near done yet and we’ve got time to see Kerry – and the others – in action.
Footnotes: Both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary had record Democratic turnout. In New Hampshire, 2,500 registered Republicans (out of the 57,000 who voted) wrote in one of the Democrats (thanks to DailyKOS for the latter). Yes, this could be an interesting year.
Back to top