The folks over at ABC's The Note
have gone through all the possible combinations in the electoral college for us:
"Assume the 2000 Electoral College tally in 2004 numbers, with the Census-adjusted state-by-state totals.
Bush has 278 votes to start with; Kerry has 260.
Assume Kerry loses Wisconsin - he has 250. Bush has 288.
Based on where Kerry is sending resources and spend advertising dollars (and knowing that the national map could still shift in either direction) - the following combinations of states get Kerry to 270 (or not), assuming New Mexico and Iowa stay Democratic.
(a) Kerry loses Wisconsin, wins Ohio and wins the election, 270 to 268.
(b) Kerry loses Wisconsin, wins Florida and wins the election: 277 to 261.
(c) Kerry loses Wisconsin, wins New Hampshire and West Virginia and no other Red states: he loses, 259 to 279.
(d) Kerry loses Wisconsin and Maine and Iowa and New Mexico (10 + 4 + 7 + 5) and picks up Ohio and Florida (20 + 27): Kerry wins 281 to 257.
(e) Kerry wins New Hampshire and West Virginia and no other Red states; he defends all his Blue states: It's a TIE: 269 to 269. Bush wins in Congress.
Now imagine this scenario:
What if Bush picks up Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico?
And Kerry picks up Ohio, New Hampshire, and West Virginia?
The electoral vote total would be: Bush 271 vs. Kerry 267
BUT -- assuming passage of Colorado's ballot initiative that awards electoral votes in accordance with the statewide popular vote - Kerry actually wins 271 vs. 267 (inevitable court challenges notwithstanding).
That Colorado ballot initiative is a free 4 electoral-vote bonus in KE04's pocket . . .
Let us explicitly add the obvious - and most important - point: Without Ohio or Florida in Kerry's column, he will most likely not be taking the oath of office on the west steps of the Capitol next January.
And holding all of the 2000 Blue states is not a given at this point."
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