Republicans began their convention last night, and Behind the Curtain is telling you, President Bush will leave his convention with a lead in national polls, if not in all the important battleground states. The momentum has swung back to him, according to recent polls, and if last night is any indication, the convention will be a brilliantly produced affair.
The Times’ David Postman reported on Sen. John McCain's speech, which was largely a defense of the Iraq War. Republicans are busy linking that war to the larger war on terror. Connecting the two justifies the former. Moreover, support for the Iraq War has fallen dramatically in the last year, and Bush partisans feel a need to offer a fresh defense of it.
"'We must learn from our mistakes, improve on our successes and vanquish this unpardonable enemy,' the Arizona senator McCain, a one-time Bush rival, told a packed Madison Square Garden on the opening night of the four-day convention. The crowd-stopper in McCain's speech, though, was an attack on anti-Bush and anti-war filmmaker Michael Moore, who was in the arena on a media pass. Moore became the focus of a sustained uproar from the crowd. He then left the convention hall after the speech in the middle of a fast-moving scrum of security officers."
Why was Moore there? He's writing a column for USA Today this week, and so was given a media pass.
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the featured speaker, talked up Bush and knocked down Sen. John Kerry.
"Recalling the World Trade Center attack, former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani spoke about 'seeing the flames of hell and then realizing that I was actually seeing a man - a human being - jumping from the 101st or 102nd floor. Spontaneously, I grabbed the arm of then-Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik and said to Bernie, 'Thank God, George Bush is our president.' And I say it again tonight, 'Thank God George Bush is our president.' " Giuliani, whose calming of a wounded city after the attacks three years ago won him almost heroic status, drew a blunt political line last night between Bush and Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee. His descriptions of the two men: 'President Bush, a leader who is willing to stick with difficult decisions even as public opinion shifts, and John Kerry, whose record in elected office suggests a man who changes his position often even on important issues.'"
The only hitch in the day for President Bush was an interview in which he said America cannot win the war on terror, but only "create conditions so that those who use terror as a tool are less acceptable in parts of the world," an entirely reasonable idea, but one his opponents pounced on. The White House later clarified and said there was no change in policy, just a description of a war that is different in kind than other types.
Republicans smartly realize that they have one way to win this election, to pound Kerry with body blows and drive up his negatives. That will keep swing voters and undecideds at home, and Bush will win on the strength of his Republican base. So expect plenty of negative campaigning in the coming weeks, just as you've seen in the past few weeks with the anti-Kerry swift boat group that called him a liar about his war record. Meanwhile, it's an open question as to whether such attacks would work if used on Bush. The public already knows what it knows about Bush and has formed opinions of him. This is why Kerry was reluctant to allow harsh attacks on Bush during his convention. But he may have no choice now.
Convention schedule:
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Jonathan Martin, who reports on social issues for The Seattle Times, has a profile of gubernatorial candidate Christine Gregoire and her record on child welfare.
"In her first job out of law school, Christine Gregoire went to the grim front lines of child-abuse investigation, representing social workers across Eastern Washington. She pursued the job with such a passion that Gregoire remains a near legend among her former state co-workers from Spokane, Republican and Democrat alike. 'I've been in child welfare for 30 years, and I have never seen another attorney have anything like the influence she had on the agency at the time,' said Dee Wilson, a rookie investigator then, a senior child-welfare official now."
As attorney general, Gregoire has had to defend the state in some difficult cases, including the O.K. Boys Ranch, a group home for troubled boys licensed by the state and riddled with abuse. The state settled for $22 million with 51 former residents, and the attorney general's office had to pay more than $400,000 in fines due to withheld documents.
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