Well kids, you will never guess what state is now in play. I'll give you a hint: It is not normally considered a battleground state, it's a few thousand miles away from the rest of the states, and it's surrounded by a small geographical feature called the Pacific Ocean. Those of you who aren't still guessing know that I'm talking about Hawaii. Those of you who are, well, you know now, so we can move on.
Hawaii is historically a Democratic leaning state, having only gone to a Republican twice in its history. Up until about a week ago, that trend looked to be continuing, as Kerry had a comfortable lead. This all changed when Ward Research published a poll giving Bush a 0.7 percent lead. Two days later a poll from SMS Research confirmed the gain, giving Bush a one percent advantage. SMS had Kerry ahead by seven points two months before.
Whatever the reason for the shift, it presents an interesting question. Could a candidate actually get away with campaigning in a tropical paradise?
Conventional wisdom would say no, but further scrutiny reveals some definite advantages. Hawaii has four electoral votes. This is equal to the amount wielded by New Hampshire, where the candidates have invested a great deal of time and money.
A four vote state represents an eight point swing if it goes the other way, so a candidate ignores it at his own peril. One must also consider that the four votes would be relatively easy to pick up, as one visit could probably secure the allegiance of people who, quite rightly, feel largely ignored by the mainland.
When you add in the fact that large numbers of core constituencies populate the state (military and military retirees for Bush and native Hawaiians for Kerry), you could make a strong case for a visit.
In the end, I don't think that we'll see either candidate go to Hawaii, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop some cash there. In the closing days of the campaign, opportunity abounds and little can be taken for granted.
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