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Welcome to Backyard Blog, our group online journal for this election season. We've asked a broad array of people with deep ties to the region to share their views on politics during the 2004 campaign.
Send your comments to bbcomments@seattletimes.com. |
October 24, 2004
| Gay marriage and evangelicals will decide the race for Bush |
| Posted by Matthew Ranger at October 24, 2004 09:19 AM |
And now, ladies and gentlemen, my prediction for the outcome of the Presidential race.
Here's the short story. George W. Bush will win Ohio and therefore the election, based on a higher than expected turnout, will break in his direction due to a gay marriage amendment being on the ballot.
For those of you who are still with me, here's the long story. In this year's Presidential election, 11 states will also have ballot initiatives proposing amendments to their respective constitutions defining marriage as a relationship between one man and one woman. Of those 11, four are generally thought of as swing states in this election: Arkansas, Oregon, Michigan and Ohio. Currently, Arkansas looks to be breaking for Bush and Oregon for Kerry. Kerry is counting on Michigan big time, and currently has a lead there. Realistically, Kerry will lose a few other states, and the election for that matter, before he loses Michigan. This brings us to Ohio.
Current polls show the race there neck and neck with nearly every poll within the margin of error. With Nader off the ballot and the race nearly over, it is looking more and more like turnout will be the decisive factor in this race. It is my belief that the amendment initiative will have a profound effect on turnout and will push Bush over the top. How did I come to this conclusion? Two reasons: Missouri and evangelical Christians.
In September, Missouri had a similar initiative on their ballot. While it passed by an extremely wide margin (71% to 29%) the real story was in the turnout. 1.1 Million people were expected at the polls that day. 1.5 showed up, an increase of around 40%. Admittedly, I would expect neither the amendment victory margin nor the percentage increase of turnout in Ohio, but I believe that we can expect both an amendment victory and increased turnout due to it. I would expect that the increased turnout would greatly benefit the President, as the issue turns out more conservatives than it does liberals.
The President has courted evangelical Christians during his administration, and with good reason. It has been estimated that 4 million of them nationwide stayed home during the last election. Now this is a group of people that will break heavily in the president's direction. An amendment on marriage is just the kind of issue that will bring a great number of those, and more specifically a great number of those in Ohio, to the polls. While they're at it, you can be almost certain that they will leave a chad hanging for President Bush.
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October 2004
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