If you've been a polling junkie for the past few months like I have, you should read this interview with Charles Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report (registration is free).
I’ve spent weeks glued to these websites, knowing full well that polls don’t tell you a darn thing about the reality of the situation. Maybe I am having a hard time giving up the security and hope I’ve been getting from watching the numbers.
These websites, with their fancy-pants statistical analyses, margins of error, and those deceptively clear-cut red/blue/gray maps, give the impression of being concrete, when in fact they more resemble a pile of mud, each pollster shoveling his own dirt onto the heap, hoping that things will consistently hold together.
In his interview, Mr. Cook casts some very rational light on the hype surrounding polls, undecided voters, swing states, and Senate races, among many other topics. Some highlights: Jews are the Gore-to-Bush voters everyone is wondering about; in the polls: thumbs up to Zogby, thumbs down to Rasmussen and Survey USA; finally, Mr. Cook “cannot remember ever seeing a race where a well-known, well-defined incumbent won a half or more of the undecided vote. Generally it is at least two-thirds to three-quarters going to the challenger…”
Good news for Kerry? Maybe, but read the article and questions will get answered. It’s like an “Elections n’ Politics FAQ.” Very, very interesting.
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