As we approach the fall, a few questions hang in the air. Will the debates be the deciding factor in the election? What strategy will Kerry use to erase the gap? Who lives in a pineapple under the sea?
Foremost among these questions is how in the heck did Kerry manage to let Bush get a lead in New Jersey? New Jersey is supposed to be a safe Dem state. Gore won it by a good 15 points in 2000. Now Survey USA has Bush up by four points.
A similar story has emerged in Illinois, where he is down by only four points in another Democrat stronghold. If Kerry has to defend turf that he was counting on getting without a fight, he's going to have a very hard time defeating Bush in the battleground states that he has to win.
Now, to be fair, this is an unknown election. According to most projections I've seen, Bush is barely over the 50% mark of the overall popular vote. Kerry can still win, but to do so, I think that he'll have to do the following:
- Avoid the terrorism issue. It's Bush's best issue, and he needs to play to his enemy's weakness not his enemy's strength.
- Reframe the Iraq debate. Instead of talking about the past in Iraq, which has carried him about as far as it can, talk about the future. He needs to make concrete proposals on improving the situation there that go beyond the Europeans magically showing up to help us. These could be timetables for withdrawal, changes in force structure, creation of new Iraqi institutions, etc. Right now, he seems to be saying that he'll do everything the President will do, only he'll do it better and completely differently. Not exactly a formula for victory.
- Emerge with an issue that targets independents. This could the health care, the economy, or possibly the environment. Give that family in the 'burbs a reason to vote for you, not just against the other guy.
Whatever Kerry's going to do, he had better do it quickly. Otherwise, that sound you hear on election night will be the Republican revelers chanting "Mondale".
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